Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 8

Norway had a big day Saturday but not as big a day as projected. Canada and the USA had a couple of surprises, and yet they’re right on pace.

How? Read on …

Projected: 2g, 2s, 1b = 5
Actual: 2g, 1s, 1b = 4

Won expected medals in biathlon men’s sprint (though not the expected medalist) and snowboarding men’s slopestyle. But the projections had a sweep in cross-country women’s skiathlon, and Norway only managed gold and bronze.

Projected: 1g, 1s, 1b = 3
Actual: 1g, 1s, 1b = 3

A little backwards: two actual medals vs. one projected in freestyle women’s moguls, then one of the projected two in snowboarding men’s slopestyle. Evens out.

Projected: 1g, 1s, 0b = 2
Actual: 1g, 1s, 1b = 3

Called two medals in speedskating men’s 5,000. Got a sweep.

Projected: 1g, 0s, 1b = 2
Actual: 1g, 0s, 1b = 2

Swap the gold in the slopestyle for the bronze in the moguls.

Surprise medals: Austria (silver, biathlon), Sweden (silver, cross-country), Czech Republic (bronze, biathlon)

Missed out: France (silver, biathlon), Slovenia (bronze, biathlon), South Korea (bronze, speedskating)

Biggest surprise: Sage Kotsenburg (USA), gold, slopestyle. Barely knew who he was.

Biggest disappointment: Martin Fourcade (France) has been dominant in biathlon. But the sprint can be a fickle event.

Worst pick: Jakov Fak (Slovenia), biathlon. Shouldn’t have stuck with him while he slumped this season. Shot cleanly and still finished 10th.

The projection vs. actual table:

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Published by

Beau Dure

The guy who wrote a bunch of soccer books and now runs a Gen X-themed podcast while substitute teaching and continuing to write freelance stuff.

2 thoughts on “Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 8”

  1. Really enjoying the original predications and updates… I have you at 45% correct in medalists for any medal (through 2/9, before Ski Jumping). One note for tomorrows predictions on your site… you have Nicole Hosp winning silver in Alpine/Super Combined… she’s from Austria, not Switzerland. Keep up the great work!

  2. You’re right — thanks! I actually have her listed with Austria in every other reference but that one. Very strange. I fixed it on that page and adjusted the medal count.

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