2018 medal projections: 31 today

NBC’s Nick Zaccardi has taken care of something I had planned to do, rounding up this winter’s World Championship results into a medal projection. His numbers: 34 Germany 28 USA 27 Norway 26 Canada 22 France Compare this to the most recent Virtual Medal Table from Gracenote, which compiles all results: 34 Germany 34 Norway 31 USA 29 Canada (only 5 gold) 23 Russia I haven’t done a full-fledged projection (and I might not), but I’ll take a quick pass through the World Championship results and assign a plus or minus to Nick’s count: ALPINE SKIING Medals won: 3 Mikaela Shiffrin: … Continue reading 2018 medal projections: 31 today

What happens when you search for Olympic sports

Yes, SportsMyriad will have medal projections in 2016, but we’re doing things a little differently. Note the “we.” Not “I.” I’m getting help. As preparation for the projections, I did a few searches on every Summer Olympic sport today. It’s difficult. So many summer sports are also recreational, and it’s hard to find coverage of the ISATWHATEVER World Cup amid all the stuff geared toward the practitioner, not the fan. Other sports are far more popular outside the Olympics. Here’s what you find for each sport: Archery: “I killed a bear. Check out these photos.” Badminton: China, China, China, hey, can we … Continue reading What happens when you search for Olympic sports

2016 medal projections: Handball (men’s)

The World Championships are all over bar the shouting. And people are shouting about Qatar — the country you know as the dubiously selected FIFA World Cup host in 2022 but now known as the country that bought a bunch of ringers for its handball team, bought a bunch of fans for this tournament and got so many questionable calls in its favor that one beaten opponent sarcastically applauded the refs. That was after the powers that be realized Germany wasn’t in the tournament, so Oceania champion Australia was unceremoniously dumped so the handball-watching country could get a wild card. Like South Korea’s soccer team after … Continue reading 2016 medal projections: Handball (men’s)

Medal projection fever: Events that matter in 2015

Ten days until the men’s handball World Championships! That’s the first of many events that will feed into the 2016 medal projections this year. By the end of the year, I’ll have every Rio event projected. Even SuperBacteria Sailing. Wikipedia rounds up nearly everything that matters in 2015, but I’ll focus here on medal projection events, mostly World Championships. Jan. 15-Feb. 1: Men’s handball Worlds, Qatar. Winner qualifies for Olympics. Feb. 18-22: Track cycling Worlds, Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines. Olympic qualifying is based on rankings. April 14-19: Equestrian dressage and jumping World Cup finals, Las Vegas. The World Equestrian Games are in even non-Olympic years. The other Olympic … Continue reading Medal projection fever: Events that matter in 2015

Medal projections: Stats vs. subjectivity

Can we really come up with a statistical model for projecting Olympic medals? I’ve often joked that I want to be the Nate Silver of Olympic medal projections. But Nate knows a lot more about stats than I do — I never took a single class in the subject, and I just hack my way through spreadsheets on the basis of some self-teaching and the occasional journalists’ seminar. (Did I just ruin my chances of getting hired to consult at the new FiveThirtyEight?) Since Sochi, I’ve embarked on a bit more self-teaching in spreadsheets and stats. At the same time, … Continue reading Medal projections: Stats vs. subjectivity