How did the Olympic results compare with all the things we could use to predict them? Glad you asked: [gview file=”https://duresport.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/2014-projection-analysis-as-m-dh.pdf”%5D And this: [gview file=”http://www.sportsmyriad.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014-projection-analysis-AS-M-SG.pdf”%5D Basically, I’m comparing three different types of results: 1. Majors: How skiers fared in the last Olympics and the last two World Championships. The number in “Majors” is a median — it ignores any null results, and the 2013 World Championships are counted twice so that they’ll be weighted more heavily. 2. Cup: Median of the last four World Cup seasons, with the last two counted twice so they’ll be weighted more heavily. 3. 13-14: The 2013 and 14 World … Continue reading 2014 medal projections: Some excruciating details
What would you do to participate in the Olympics and get a nice wave of publicity? Would you gain citizenship in a small foreign country? Would you go to the Games knowing that your best performances had barely pushed you over the very low bar to qualify in a couple of events? And would you do all this knowing you’re going to come under such heavy scrutiny that people would end up doubting the injury and illness that kept you from competing? It’s easy to shrug off the Deadspin report on “Dominica’s fake ski team” — Gary di Silvestri and … Continue reading Was Dominica’s Olympic ski team a fraud?
The biggest differences between the Sochi medal projections and the Sochi medal count were: USA – Speedskating: Projected 7, got 0. In the other direction, there’s sliding sports: Projected 3, got 7. Norway – Cross-country skiing: Projected 18, got 11. Also biathlon: Projected 12, got 6. Netherlands – Speedskating: Projected 14, got 23. The only other projected or actual medal: They picked one up in short-track. Germany – Sliding sports: Projected 11, got 5. Sweden – Cross-country skiing: Projected 5, got 11. South Korea – Short-track: Projected 9, got 5. And speedskating: Projected 5, got 2. France – Action sports: … Continue reading Where the Olympic medals came from and went
The 50k cross-country race turned into a microcosm of the Olympics — a big pack going around most of the way, then Russia blasting away from everyone at the end. For the last couple of days, we’ve figured no country would get more than 30 medals. With that cross-country sweep, Russia wound up with 33. We’ll wrap up later today or tomorrow with a look at where each country gained or lost. FULL TABLE [gview file=”https://duresport.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/2014-medal-projections-feb23.pdf”%5D HIGHLIGHTS Most prescient thing I’ve ever written: On OZY on Saturday, I wrote about Tara Lipinski and Johnny Weir: “Why limit them to figure skating? … Continue reading Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 23
Russia put a punctuation mark on its Olympics by sweeping the longest race on the program, with the top four finishing within one second of each other. Date: 23-Feb Sport: Cross-country skiing Event: Men’s 50k freestyle mass start Medalists: Alexander Legkov (Russia), Maxim Vylegzhanin (Russia), Ilia Chernousov (Russia) SportsMyriad projections: Petter Northug (Norway), Maxim Vylegzhanin (Russia), Alexander Legkov (Russia) How U.S. fared: Noah Hoffman was up near the front and spent most of the time from 10k to 20k tucked in second place behind Sweden’s Anders Soedergren and returned there at 42.5k. He finally settled back in the pack at 45k, coming across 12th but still only 6.3 seconds … Continue reading Sochi recap: Cross-country skiing, men’s 50k
Unless Alexander Zubkov crashes on his home track and Norway sweeps the 50k cross-country race on Sunday, Russia will be the first host country to finish atop the medal count since … Norway, in 1994. If you prefer following gold medal counts to overall medal counts, you’re no fun, and possibly a little pedantic. But the last host country to have the most gold medals was Canada, last time. A few bits of medal trivia: – 26 countries have won medals in Sochi, tying the number from last time. In fact, they’re the same 26. – The projections had 25 countries winning … Continue reading Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 22
Austria’s Mario Matt has two world slalom titles (2001, 2007) and plenty of World Cup success. But he has rarely been healthy in the Olympics — in fact, he had never finished an Olympic slalom. Now the 34-year-old is a gold medalist. Date: 22-Feb Sport: Alpine skiing Event: Men’s slalom Medalists: Mario Matt (Austria), Marcel Hirscher (Austria), Henrik Kristoffersen (Norway) SportsMyriad projections: Marcel Hirscher (Austria), Mario Matt (Austria), Felix Neureuther (Germany) How U.S. fared: Nolan Kasper was 18th, exactly 2 seconds back, after the first run. David Chodounsky did not finish. That left all eyes on Ted Ligety, the giant slalom gold medalist. His World Cup slalom results aren’t special … Continue reading Sochi recap: Alpine skiing, men’s slalom