Tag: sochi 2014

medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 9

Posted on by Beau Dure

Norway is now projected NOT to break the USA’s record of 37 medals set in 2010.

Wait, you say, doesn’t Norway lead the medal count? Yes. But Norway is already three medals behind the projected pace. The projections called for 39 medals. So if Norway wins every remaining projection (and no others), that’ll be 36. The USA still in line for 35 medals.

The obvious disclaimer: It’s still early.

A few ups and downs from Sunday, good news last:

DOWN

Germany (-3): Only one men’s luge medal? At least it was gold. Germany also missed out in speedskating and ski jumping.

Norway (-2): If you prefer looking at gold medals rather than the total, Norway’s day was awful. Three projected golds (women’s biathlon, men’s ski jumping, men’s downhill) turned to two bronze. Norway also got one instead of a projected two in cross-country, and Russia’s still protesting that one.

RIGHT ON TARGET

USA: Projected gold in slopestyle (Jamie Anderson) and bronze in team figure skating. Won gold in slopestyle (Jamie Anderson) and bronze in team figure skating.

Switzerland: Injured much of the season, and yet Dario Cologna rewarded the projections’ faith in cross-country.

SURPRISES

Eighteen countries won medals Sunday, including Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, Slovenia, Finland, Britain and Ukraine.

UP

Russia (+3): Projected for silver in team figure skating. That became a runaway gold. They also got a good run to silver from luge veteran Albert Demchenko, a surprising biathlon silver from Olga Vilukhina, and a completely unexpected bronze from speedskater Olga Graf,

HIGHLIGHTS

Biggest surprise: Either Matthias Mayer (Austria) in the downhill or Graf (Russia) in speedskating.

Biggest disappointment: It wasn’t just that occasionally dominant cross-country skier Petter Northug (Norway) missed the medals. It was the way he blew up and fell back when his tactic of slowing the field didn’t work.

Best commentary: Sally Jenkins on “the most troubled, complicated Olympics of our time,” in which the media hotel problems barely scratch the surface behind the Potemkin village. Sure, Beijing had a wide gap between its Olympic glitz and the impoverished countryside, but this seems much, much worse.

Best parent: Tucker West’s dad isn’t letting the backyard luge slider-turned-Olympian leave his moment in the spotlight without reminding the ladies that his fine young son is single.

Funniest moment: “Oh, you need to get back to the start gate? Here, let me help … whoa!”

Least sportsmanlike moment: “Hey, USA’s Noah Hoffman, you fell? Here, let me bonk you in the face.”

Highlight to see when NBC makes it available after prime time: Jamie Anderson had a bit of pressure on her. She was the runaway favorite in women’s slopestyle — maybe an unfair status given the sport’s unpredictability. Her first run was a little off. Her second was sublime.

More on Storify.

FULL TABLE

[gview file=”https://duresport.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014-medal-projections-feb9.pdf”%5D

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olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Alpine skiing, men’s downhill

Posted on by Beau Dure

The glamorous downhill event turns up some surprises, and this was no exception. Matthias Mayer, who had never won a World Cup race and never finished higher than fifth in downhill, is the gold medalist.

Date: 9- Feb

Sport: Alpine skiing

Event: Men’s downhill

Medalists: Matthias Mayer (Austria), Christof Innerhofer (Italy), Kjetil Jansrud (Norway)

SportsMyriad projections: Aksel Lund Svindal (Norway), Erik Guay (Canada), Dominik Paris (Italy)

How U.S. fared: Bode Miller hasn’t had the best track record in recent years, which is why he wasn’t a projected medalist. He did well in recent weeks and in training here, but he didn’t quite find the speed today, finishing eighth.

Overshadowed by the Bode hype — Travis Ganong took a stunning fifth. He had never finished higher than sixth in any World Cup race, never higher than seventh in downhill.

Steven Nyman was the first skier on the course and took 27th overall. Marco Sullivan placed 30th.

What happened: After Norway’s Aksel Lund Svindal, the medals were difficult to pick. But Svindal, the 18th skier to start, lost time in the middle and stood third at the finish line behind Austria’s Matthias Mayer and fellow Norwegian Kjetil Jansrud.

Two skiers later, Italy’s Christof Innerhofer took aim down the treacherous slope. He led by more than a half-second through the first split but steadily lost time and finished just 0.06 seconds behind Mayer.

Most of the other contenders didn’t make a strong run at the top places. The exception was 36-year-old Swiss veteran Didier Defago, who held a brief lead near the top of the course but dropped well back and finished 14th.

Innerhofer is the least surprising medalist. He took a medal of each color at the 2011 World Championships, including downhill bronze, and he won three World Cup downhills last season. Jansrud is the 2010 silver medalist in giant slalom and has little to show in major speed events, though he has a few scattered World Cup podiums.

Only two skiers failed to finish the course — among the top 30 starters, only France’s Johan Clarey.

 

Quote: “This is unbelievable. I thought maybe in a few years I could dream of this sort of achievement. It was really cool and my family will be excited.” – Matthias Mayer

Full results

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olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Biathlon, women’s sprint

Posted on by Beau Dure

The favorites fell short, Russia picked up a solid silver, and former Russian (now Slovakian) Anastasiya Kuzmina repeated as gold medalist in a surprising biathlon sprint.

Date: 9- Feb

Sport: Biathlon

Event: Women’s sprint (7.5k)

Medalists: Anastasiya Kuzmina (Slovakia), Olga Vilukhina (Russia), Vita Semerenko (Ukraine)

SportsMyriad projections: Tora Berger (Norway), Darya Domracheva (Belarus), Gabriela Soukalova (Czech Republic)

How U.S. fared: Susan Dunklee was among the early starters and among the fastest in that group, shooting cleanly with the international feed’s cameras watching. And she was fast — through 30 skiers, she was the second-fastest through the prone shooting stage. The cameras caught up with her again on the standing shoot, and she half-laughed as she missed the last one, as if she realized she had nearly pulled off something special. She still posted the best finish ever by a U.S. woman in this event — 14th place. One miss costs skiers 20-25 seconds on a penalty loop — subtract 20 seconds from her time, and she finishes third.

Sara Studebacker missed one target and finished 44th. Annelies Cook missed two standing shots and took 53rd. They qualified for the pursuit; Hannah Dressigacker (65th, four misses) did not.

What happened: Format reminder: This is a race against the clock, with skiers starting at 30-second intervals. Two shooting stages: One prone, one standing.

And several of the early favorites missed on the easier prone stage. Look up at the projections — Berger missed one, Domracheva missed one, Soukalova missed THREE. Domracheva and Berger were in the top three among the early skiers but got bumped down through the evening.

Slovakia’s Anastasiya Kuzmina was the defending champion (and the brother of Russia’s Anton Shipulin, who just missed the podium in yesterday’s opener). She hasn’t been a consistent podium finisher in the past three years, though so surely she … oh, wait, she knocked down all 10 shots. And she was fast. She claimed the lead through 33 skiers.

While more favorites faltered, the unknowns came through. Poland’s Weronika Nowakowska-Ziemniak was briefly on the podium. Then Italy’s Karin Oberhofer grabbed second.

Russia’s Olga Vilukhina, who shot cleanly and clawed her way up the standings. The crowd roared as she came in second, 19.9 seconds back.

The late charger was Vita Semerenko, one of two V. Semerenkos competing for Ukraine. Her early split times were puzzlingly slow, but she shot cleanly and burned through the last lap. She finished 1.8 seconds behind Semerenko.

The top four finishers — Kuzmina, Vilukhina, Semerenko and Oberhofer — shot cleanly. One miss was enough to keep even the best off the podium.

Just to show how surprising this was: Here are the current World Cup sprint standings: Kuzmina 24th, Vilukhina 14th, Vita Semerenko 29th (Valj is 10th), Oberhofer 54th.

Quote: “This victory was for him, too. I hope that it inspires him for tomorrow’s pursuit. He can win.” – Kuzmina, speaking about her Russian brother, Anton Shipulin

Full results

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olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Cross-country skiing, men’s skiathlon

Posted on by Beau Dure

Dario Cologna, whose favorite status was in doubt after an injury slowed him through the World Cup season, made the decisive move on the torturous uphill before the finish and held on for gold, while Russia endured another fourth-place result.

Date: 9- Feb

Sport: Cross-country skiing

Event: Men’s skiathlon (15k classical + 15k freestyle)

Medalists: Dario Cologna (Switzerland), Marcus Hellner (Sweden), Martin Johnsrud Sundby (Norway)

SportsMyriad projections: Dario Cologna (Switzerland), Martin Johnsrud Sundby (Norway), Petter Northug (Norway)

How U.S. fared: The early surprise – the USA’s Noah Hoffman stuck with the leaders in his weaker discipline of classical. Then he wiped out on a turn heading into the stadium. He got up, and Italy’s Francesco de Fabiani ran into him. He dropped back and wasn’t a factor again. He finished 35th, 3:12.7 back. Erik Bjornsen was 42nd, 4:26.9 back. Then Brian Gregg (47th, 5:10.9) and Kris Freeman (54th, 6:19.2).

What happened: Format reminder: The skiers go 15 kilometers in classical style, then change skis and poles like they’re in a NASCAR pit stop, then take off in freestyle.

Norway’s Martin Johnsrud Sundby and Russia’s Alexander Legkov led a pack that broke away in the classical phase. That group had roughly 19 skiers. Legkov ran into some trouble heading into the stadium and dropped to the back of that group, but he made a smooth transition and stayed in the lead group as it dwindled to 17, including four Swedes and three Russians. All three of the SportsMyriad projected medalists took turns at the front in freestyle.

NBC’s insightful Chad Salmela kept pointing out Petter Northug’s tactics. He would push his way to the front and try to slow the pace, figuring he would win a sprint finish. And no one else was able to break away.

Finally, the big move came from Switzerland’s Dario Cologna. He pushed himself to the limit up the final downhill. Three skiers stayed close — Sundby, Sweden’s Marcus Hellner and Maxim Vylegzhanin.

Cologna barely had enough energy to hold off Hellner by 0.4 seconds. One second later, Sundby broke Russia’s hearts, beating Vylegzhanin by 0.1 seconds after more than 68 minutes of racing. One day earlier in the same venue, Russia’s Anton Shipulin was fourth in the biathlon sprint. When will Russia’s agony end?

Quote: “It’s very special for me to win after my injury in November. I didn’t expect to be on the podium some months ago. I can’t believe I won the first race.” – Dario Cologna

Full results

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medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 8

Posted on by Beau Dure

Norway had a big day Saturday but not as big a day as projected. Canada and the USA had a couple of surprises, and yet they’re right on pace.

How? Read on …

Norway
Projected: 2g, 2s, 1b = 5
Actual: 2g, 1s, 1b = 4

Won expected medals in biathlon men’s sprint (though not the expected medalist) and snowboarding men’s slopestyle. But the projections had a sweep in cross-country women’s skiathlon, and Norway only managed gold and bronze.

Canada
Projected: 1g, 1s, 1b = 3
Actual: 1g, 1s, 1b = 3

A little backwards: two actual medals vs. one projected in freestyle women’s moguls, then one of the projected two in snowboarding men’s slopestyle. Evens out.

Netherlands
Projected: 1g, 1s, 0b = 2
Actual: 1g, 1s, 1b = 3

Called two medals in speedskating men’s 5,000. Got a sweep.

USA
Projected: 1g, 0s, 1b = 2
Actual: 1g, 0s, 1b = 2

Swap the gold in the slopestyle for the bronze in the moguls.

Surprise medals: Austria (silver, biathlon), Sweden (silver, cross-country), Czech Republic (bronze, biathlon)

Missed out: France (silver, biathlon), Slovenia (bronze, biathlon), South Korea (bronze, speedskating)

Biggest surprise: Sage Kotsenburg (USA), gold, slopestyle. Barely knew who he was.

Biggest disappointment: Martin Fourcade (France) has been dominant in biathlon. But the sprint can be a fickle event.

Worst pick: Jakov Fak (Slovenia), biathlon. Shouldn’t have stuck with him while he slumped this season. Shot cleanly and still finished 10th.

The projection vs. actual table:

[gview file=”http://www.sportsmyriad.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014-medal-projections-Feb8.pdf”%5D

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olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Freestyle skiing, women’s moguls

Posted on by Beau Dure

The Canadian Dufour-Lapointe sisters are the moguls of women’s moguls. They finished 1-2, just ahead of defending champion Hannah Kearney.

Date: 8- Feb

Sport: Freestyle skiing

Event: Women’s moguls

Medalists: Justine Dufour-Lapointe (Canada), Chloe Dufour-Lapointe (Canada), Hannah Kearney (USA)

SportsMyriad projections: Hannah Kearney (USA), Justine Dufour-Lapointe (Canada), Heather McPhie (USA)

How U.S. fared: McPhie, who had to get through a qualifying round in the morning, was unlucky 13th in the first round of the finals, missing out on Round 2. Kearney took a basic “survive and advance” approach in that first round with a good but not great run, good for seventh place. Then she blasted her way through the second round with a 21.93, best of the day so far. Eliza Outtrim went the other way — second in the first round, fifth of the six qualifiers (21.53) in the semis. She was a little shaky off the first jump in the final.

Heidi Kloser, sadly, couldn’t participate after a devastating knee injury in practice before Thursday’s qualifying.

Outtrim looked a little sluggish in the final and finished sixth. Kearney had a little bobble off the first kicker, and that was enough to deny her a repeat gold.

What happened: Did the sheer number of runs in one day overwhelm the field? Japan’s Aiko Uemura was quickly down the course in 30.46 seconds and opened the final with a 20.66, and then the next two (Outtrim and Australia’s Britteny Cox) failed to break 20.

That left the door open for two of the three Dufour-Lapointe sisters (Maxime was 12th in the second final) and Kearney. Justine was flawless, getting big marks in the air to take the lead with a 22.44. Chloe was only slightly behind, nearly matching Justine’s turns to get a 21.66. That guaranteed two podium places for the sisters.

It all came down to Kearney. She ripped down the course in 31.04 seconds, faster than either Canadian. Her air scores roughly matched Justine’s. But she was marked down on the turns, finishing third.

Quote: “I think I really gave it away is what I felt like. I felt like it was mine to ski for.” – Hannah Kearney

Full results

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olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Team figure skating, pairs long program

Posted on by Beau Dure

Russia and Canada will be dueling to the wire in this event, while the USA is still in great shape for bronze.

Date: 8- Feb

Sport: Figure skating

Event: Team event, pairs free skate

How U.S. fared: Give Marissa Castelli and Simon Shnapir this — they went for it. Shnapir threw, and Castelli twisted four times. And maybe a little more, causing her to lose control and put a hand on the ice. That brief bobble was no worry, but Castelli also fell on a triple jump. Still, the dazzling complexity of the program was enough to give them a season-high 117.94 points. That helped the USA add a point to its edge over Japan and almost put another point over Italy.

What happened: This is Japan’s weak spot, and they led off with a fairly mundane program. Then came Castelli and Shnapir, whose athleticism was astounding. Italy’s Stefania Berton and Ondrej Hotarek also had a couple of slips, but their 120.82 was enough to get the edge over the Americans.

Canada and Russia switched away from their top pairs, who did the short programs here and are expected to be on the podium in the pairs event down the road. But Canada’s Kirsten Moore-Towers and Dylan Moscovitch took care of business, with only a minor bobble on their way to leading through four pairs. Russia’s Ksenia Stolbova and Fedor Klimov, skating to Marc Shaiman’s Addams Family soundtrack, botched an early combination jump but were otherwise as solid as you’d expect from a country with such depth in this event. The judges put them in front.

So heading into the last day: Russia 47, Canada 41, USA 34, Italy 31, Japan 30

Quote: “She had that intensity and that fire in her, and we just took it we embraced it and used it in our performance as well.” – Marissa Castelli

Full results: Pairs | Standings

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olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Ski jumping, men’s normal hill qualifying

Posted on by Beau Dure

Not much suspense in this one. The top 10 in the world get a bye, though they can jump for practice.

Date: 8- Feb

Sport: Ski jumping

Event: Men’s normal hill, qualifying round

How U.S. fared: Anders Johnson got through with ease, finishing 26th (reminder: the top 10 in the world didn’t jump for results). Peter Frenette was 35th. Nicholas Alexander took the very last spot, placing 40th. Nicholas Fairall was 50th and won’t advance.

What happened: The biggest jumps of the day went to two pre-qualified favorites: Austria’s Gregor Schlierenzauer and Germany’s Severin Freund, each at 104 meters.

Full results

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olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Men’s luge, first two runs

Posted on by Beau Dure

Not too many surprises in men’s luge at the halfway point. Germany’s Felix Loch, the favorite, leads ahead of ageless Russian Albert Demchenko and Italian Armin Zöggeler. Germany’s David Möller had a rough time in 14th.

Event: 8- Feb

Sport: Luge

Event: Men’s, first two runs (of four)

How U.S. fared: The U.S. sliders weren’t major contenders, but this was still a bit disappointing. Chris Mazdzer was 10th in the first run and 12th in the second, sliding to 13th overall. The two teens, Tucker West and Aidan Kelly, stand 23rd and 26th.

What happened: The track record fell multiple times, with 42-year-old Demchenko leading the first run with a time of 52.170 seconds, just 0.015 ahead of Loch. But Loch broke the 52-second mark in the second run at 51.964.

Demchenko is still very much in striking strange. Then it’s a battle for bronze, with two Russians lurking in the mix.

The most entertaining run: Chinese Taipei’s Te-An Lien, who slid off his sled in his first run but managed to scamper back on. His second run was uneventful. He’s in last place, but he’s still in it.

Full results

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olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Team figure skating, short program

Posted on by Beau Dure

Meryl Davis and Charlie White solidified the U.S. effort with a marvelous ice dance short program. Ashley Wagner then shook off any shakiness from the U.S. championships, putting the USA solidly in the top three. Russia and Canada are likely battling for the gold, while the USA will need to hold off Japan and Italy to take bronze.

Date: 8- Feb

Sport: Figure skating

Event: Team event, ice dance and women’s short programs (the pairs free program will be a separate post)

How U.S. fared: The applause for Davis and White started before several seconds before they finished. What more do you need to know? They were first, lifting the USA to third overall with one short program remaining.

Ashley Wagner, whose international success put her on the team despite a dreadful performance at the U.S. national championships, did a solid, spunky skate. The landing on her combination jump was a little shaky, and judges may have downgraded it a bit too much. She was a little befuddled with the judging but happy with her performance.

What happened: We knew China and Japan would fall back in the ice dancing, and they did. Ice dancing is considered a two-pair race — Canada’s Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir vs. the USA’s Davis and White — and it was. The Americans got exactly three points up on their Canadian icemates, though, to take a massive 10 points in the standings.

Russia’s Ekaterina Bobrova and Dmitri Soloviev took third, establishing themselves as the potential bronze medalists when the teams are tossed aside later in the Games. France’s Nathalie Pechalat and Fabian Bourzat were the best-dressed pair — he had a pinstripe suit and red tie, she had a black and red dress — but they were disappointed in their skating and took fourth.

The standings through three phases: Russia 27, Canada 26, USA 20, France 17, China 16, Japan 16, Germany 15, Italy 14, Britain 7, Ukraine 7. Still some work to do for the USA if they want to bounce up to gold or silver, but making the top five for the final seems to be a safe bet.

In the women’s skate: Kaetlyn Osmond isn’t the biggest star on the Canadian team, but she blew the doors off right away with a flawless program set to music from Sweet Charity. She set the pace for the early skaters, but then the big guns came out after the ice was resurfaced. Wagner did well, but then 15-year-old uber-flexible Russian Yulia Lipnitskaia was simply dazzling. She was the unsurprising winner of this phase, followed by Carolina Kostner, who got Italy into the final five.

The surprise was Japan’s Mao Asada finishing ahead of Wagner despite falling on her triple axel. That said, Asada dared to try the difficult jump and rebounded well through the rest of her program.

The final five teams continue to the free skate: Russia, Canada, USA, Japan, Italy. Just missing out: France and China. Also out: Germany, Ukraine, Britain.

Full results: Ice dance | Women | Standings

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