medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 8

Norway had a big day Saturday but not as big a day as projected. Canada and the USA had a couple of surprises, and yet they’re right on pace.

How? Read on …

Norway
Projected: 2g, 2s, 1b = 5
Actual: 2g, 1s, 1b = 4

Won expected medals in biathlon men’s sprint (though not the expected medalist) and snowboarding men’s slopestyle. But the projections had a sweep in cross-country women’s skiathlon, and Norway only managed gold and bronze.

Canada
Projected: 1g, 1s, 1b = 3
Actual: 1g, 1s, 1b = 3

A little backwards: two actual medals vs. one projected in freestyle women’s moguls, then one of the projected two in snowboarding men’s slopestyle. Evens out.

Netherlands
Projected: 1g, 1s, 0b = 2
Actual: 1g, 1s, 1b = 3

Called two medals in speedskating men’s 5,000. Got a sweep.

USA
Projected: 1g, 0s, 1b = 2
Actual: 1g, 0s, 1b = 2

Swap the gold in the slopestyle for the bronze in the moguls.

Surprise medals: Austria (silver, biathlon), Sweden (silver, cross-country), Czech Republic (bronze, biathlon)

Missed out: France (silver, biathlon), Slovenia (bronze, biathlon), South Korea (bronze, speedskating)

Biggest surprise: Sage Kotsenburg (USA), gold, slopestyle. Barely knew who he was.

Biggest disappointment: Martin Fourcade (France) has been dominant in biathlon. But the sprint can be a fickle event.

Worst pick: Jakov Fak (Slovenia), biathlon. Shouldn’t have stuck with him while he slumped this season. Shot cleanly and still finished 10th.

The projection vs. actual table:

[gview file=”http://www.sportsmyriad.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014-medal-projections-Feb8.pdf”%5D

olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Freestyle skiing, women’s moguls

The Canadian Dufour-Lapointe sisters are the moguls of women’s moguls. They finished 1-2, just ahead of defending champion Hannah Kearney.

Date: 8- Feb

Sport: Freestyle skiing

Event: Women’s moguls

Medalists: Justine Dufour-Lapointe (Canada), Chloe Dufour-Lapointe (Canada), Hannah Kearney (USA)

SportsMyriad projections: Hannah Kearney (USA), Justine Dufour-Lapointe (Canada), Heather McPhie (USA)

How U.S. fared: McPhie, who had to get through a qualifying round in the morning, was unlucky 13th in the first round of the finals, missing out on Round 2. Kearney took a basic “survive and advance” approach in that first round with a good but not great run, good for seventh place. Then she blasted her way through the second round with a 21.93, best of the day so far. Eliza Outtrim went the other way — second in the first round, fifth of the six qualifiers (21.53) in the semis. She was a little shaky off the first jump in the final.

Heidi Kloser, sadly, couldn’t participate after a devastating knee injury in practice before Thursday’s qualifying.

Outtrim looked a little sluggish in the final and finished sixth. Kearney had a little bobble off the first kicker, and that was enough to deny her a repeat gold.

What happened: Did the sheer number of runs in one day overwhelm the field? Japan’s Aiko Uemura was quickly down the course in 30.46 seconds and opened the final with a 20.66, and then the next two (Outtrim and Australia’s Britteny Cox) failed to break 20.

That left the door open for two of the three Dufour-Lapointe sisters (Maxime was 12th in the second final) and Kearney. Justine was flawless, getting big marks in the air to take the lead with a 22.44. Chloe was only slightly behind, nearly matching Justine’s turns to get a 21.66. That guaranteed two podium places for the sisters.

It all came down to Kearney. She ripped down the course in 31.04 seconds, faster than either Canadian. Her air scores roughly matched Justine’s. But she was marked down on the turns, finishing third.

Quote: “I think I really gave it away is what I felt like. I felt like it was mine to ski for.” – Hannah Kearney

Full results

olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Team figure skating, pairs long program

Russia and Canada will be dueling to the wire in this event, while the USA is still in great shape for bronze.

Date: 8- Feb

Sport: Figure skating

Event: Team event, pairs free skate

How U.S. fared: Give Marissa Castelli and Simon Shnapir this — they went for it. Shnapir threw, and Castelli twisted four times. And maybe a little more, causing her to lose control and put a hand on the ice. That brief bobble was no worry, but Castelli also fell on a triple jump. Still, the dazzling complexity of the program was enough to give them a season-high 117.94 points. That helped the USA add a point to its edge over Japan and almost put another point over Italy.

What happened: This is Japan’s weak spot, and they led off with a fairly mundane program. Then came Castelli and Shnapir, whose athleticism was astounding. Italy’s Stefania Berton and Ondrej Hotarek also had a couple of slips, but their 120.82 was enough to get the edge over the Americans.

Canada and Russia switched away from their top pairs, who did the short programs here and are expected to be on the podium in the pairs event down the road. But Canada’s Kirsten Moore-Towers and Dylan Moscovitch took care of business, with only a minor bobble on their way to leading through four pairs. Russia’s Ksenia Stolbova and Fedor Klimov, skating to Marc Shaiman’s Addams Family soundtrack, botched an early combination jump but were otherwise as solid as you’d expect from a country with such depth in this event. The judges put them in front.

So heading into the last day: Russia 47, Canada 41, USA 34, Italy 31, Japan 30

Quote: “She had that intensity and that fire in her, and we just took it we embraced it and used it in our performance as well.” – Marissa Castelli

Full results: Pairs | Standings

olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Ski jumping, men’s normal hill qualifying

Not much suspense in this one. The top 10 in the world get a bye, though they can jump for practice.

Date: 8- Feb

Sport: Ski jumping

Event: Men’s normal hill, qualifying round

How U.S. fared: Anders Johnson got through with ease, finishing 26th (reminder: the top 10 in the world didn’t jump for results). Peter Frenette was 35th. Nicholas Alexander took the very last spot, placing 40th. Nicholas Fairall was 50th and won’t advance.

What happened: The biggest jumps of the day went to two pre-qualified favorites: Austria’s Gregor Schlierenzauer and Germany’s Severin Freund, each at 104 meters.

Full results

olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Men’s luge, first two runs

Not too many surprises in men’s luge at the halfway point. Germany’s Felix Loch, the favorite, leads ahead of ageless Russian Albert Demchenko and Italian Armin Zöggeler. Germany’s David Möller had a rough time in 14th.

Event: 8- Feb

Sport: Luge

Event: Men’s, first two runs (of four)

How U.S. fared: The U.S. sliders weren’t major contenders, but this was still a bit disappointing. Chris Mazdzer was 10th in the first run and 12th in the second, sliding to 13th overall. The two teens, Tucker West and Aidan Kelly, stand 23rd and 26th.

What happened: The track record fell multiple times, with 42-year-old Demchenko leading the first run with a time of 52.170 seconds, just 0.015 ahead of Loch. But Loch broke the 52-second mark in the second run at 51.964.

Demchenko is still very much in striking strange. Then it’s a battle for bronze, with two Russians lurking in the mix.

The most entertaining run: Chinese Taipei’s Te-An Lien, who slid off his sled in his first run but managed to scamper back on. His second run was uneventful. He’s in last place, but he’s still in it.

Full results

olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Team figure skating, short program

Meryl Davis and Charlie White solidified the U.S. effort with a marvelous ice dance short program. Ashley Wagner then shook off any shakiness from the U.S. championships, putting the USA solidly in the top three. Russia and Canada are likely battling for the gold, while the USA will need to hold off Japan and Italy to take bronze.

Date: 8- Feb

Sport: Figure skating

Event: Team event, ice dance and women’s short programs (the pairs free program will be a separate post)

How U.S. fared: The applause for Davis and White started before several seconds before they finished. What more do you need to know? They were first, lifting the USA to third overall with one short program remaining.

Ashley Wagner, whose international success put her on the team despite a dreadful performance at the U.S. national championships, did a solid, spunky skate. The landing on her combination jump was a little shaky, and judges may have downgraded it a bit too much. She was a little befuddled with the judging but happy with her performance.

What happened: We knew China and Japan would fall back in the ice dancing, and they did. Ice dancing is considered a two-pair race — Canada’s Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir vs. the USA’s Davis and White — and it was. The Americans got exactly three points up on their Canadian icemates, though, to take a massive 10 points in the standings.

Russia’s Ekaterina Bobrova and Dmitri Soloviev took third, establishing themselves as the potential bronze medalists when the teams are tossed aside later in the Games. France’s Nathalie Pechalat and Fabian Bourzat were the best-dressed pair — he had a pinstripe suit and red tie, she had a black and red dress — but they were disappointed in their skating and took fourth.

The standings through three phases: Russia 27, Canada 26, USA 20, France 17, China 16, Japan 16, Germany 15, Italy 14, Britain 7, Ukraine 7. Still some work to do for the USA if they want to bounce up to gold or silver, but making the top five for the final seems to be a safe bet.

In the women’s skate: Kaetlyn Osmond isn’t the biggest star on the Canadian team, but she blew the doors off right away with a flawless program set to music from Sweet Charity. She set the pace for the early skaters, but then the big guns came out after the ice was resurfaced. Wagner did well, but then 15-year-old uber-flexible Russian Yulia Lipnitskaia was simply dazzling. She was the unsurprising winner of this phase, followed by Carolina Kostner, who got Italy into the final five.

The surprise was Japan’s Mao Asada finishing ahead of Wagner despite falling on her triple axel. That said, Asada dared to try the difficult jump and rebounded well through the rest of her program.

The final five teams continue to the free skate: Russia, Canada, USA, Japan, Italy. Just missing out: France and China. Also out: Germany, Ukraine, Britain.

Full results: Ice dance | Women | Standings

olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Biathlon, men’s sprint

Old man winter, 40-year-old Norwegian Ole Einar Bjoerndalen, tied the record for Winter Olympic medals with his 12th. And it’s his seventh gold. And the Sochi Games are just starting.

Date: 8- Feb

Sport: Biathlon

Event: Men’s sprint (10k)

Medalists: Ole Einar Bjoerndalen (Norway), Dominik Landertinger (Austria), Jaroslav Soukup (Czech Republic)

SportsMyriad projections: Emil Hegle Svendsen (Norway), Martin Fourcade (France), Jakov Fak (Slovenia)

How U.S. fared: Tim Burke got a bit of TV time when he came up to the first shooting stage, and he came through with five perfect shots. The cameras picked him up again on his second shoot, the more difficult standing shoot, and his second shot went wide. That took him out of medal contention and down to 19th.

Lowell Bailey missed one shot at each stage and wound up 35th. Leif Nordgren shot cleanly, a nice accomplishment for the first-time Olympian, and placed 45th.

Russell Currier had the fun distinction of being the last skier to start. Less fun: He missed four shots in prone. He did clear the standing stage and passed a skier who started ahead of him, finishing 61st.

What happened: Quick reminder of the format: This is a race against the clock, with skiers taking to the course at 30-second intervals. The head-to-head races come later. There are two shooting stages in this race — one prone, one standing.

Bjoerndalen, the sentimental favorite to win his 35,882th medal in his 479th Olympics, went through quickly but missed one shot on the standing stage.

But others faltered. Russian favorite Evgeny Ustyugov was out of the top three after the first 15 skiers finished. Fellow Norwegian Emil Hegle Svendsen missed a standing shot and never recovered. French powerhouse Martin Fourcade missed a prone shot and recovered to clean the standing, still lagging a few seconds behind the pace Bjoerndalen set.

Bjoerndalen, who started 24th, took over the clubhouse lead from Austria’s Dominik Landertinger by 1.3 seconds. Fourcade (starting 39th) could never be counted out, but when he finished, he was only third. Then he was immediately bumped out of the medals by the Czech Republic’s Jaroslav Soukup. Landertinger and Soukup shot cleanly.

Russia’s Anton Shipulin blew through the first several checkpoints rather quickly, but a miss at the standing stage meant the home crowd wasn’t going to see a winner. He flew hard at the finish, seeing the time he had to beat, but came across in agony in fourth place.

Canada’s J.P. Le Guellec, who occasionally surprises on the World Cup circuit, actually came through the second shooting faster then Bjoerndalen. He couldn’t zip through the last lap as quickly but finished a very strong fifth.

The last real hope was Italy’s Lukas Hofer. But he threw one shot wide, and on this day, that was enough.

Quote: “I always forget that (I’m 40). I feel like I’m 20.” – Ole Einar Bjoerndalen

Full results

olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Cross-country skiing, women’s skiathlon

No surprise here — Norwegian legend Marit Bjoergen is still going strong, and she never seemed troubled on her way to her fourth Olympic gold medal (third individual). Norway took two medals and showed some tears on the podium as they mourn the sudden death of teammate Astrid Uhrenholdt Jacobsen’s brother.

Date: 8- Feb

Sport: Cross-country skiing

Event: Women’s skiathlon (7.5k classical + 7.5k freestyle)

Medalists: Marit Bjoergen (Norway), Charlotte Kalla (Sweden), Heidi Weng (Norway)

SportsMyriad projections: Marit Bjoergen (Norway), Therese Johaug (Norway), Kristin Stoermer Steira (Norway)

How U.S. fared: Not a factor in the classical phase, but Jessie Diggins pulled out something special in the freestyle and led a chase group to take eighth place overall, 1:31.9 seconds back. Liz Stephen was also in that group, taking 12th. Sadie Bjornsen placed 31st, 2:36.1 behind Bjoergen. Holly Brooks was four minutes back in 47th.

What happened: A lead pack of about 12, including all the favorites, pulled away over the second lap (of two) in the classical phase. It dwindled to six heading into the transition, where skiers switched skis and poles. It all went wrong there for Poland’s Justyna Kowalczyk, who slipped just before the changeover point and lost a few seconds right away.

The top five, including three Norwegians, were separated by only 2.1 seconds after the transition, and they stuck together through the first lap of freestyle while Kowalczyk chased. But the Polish favorite, better at classical than freestyle, lost ground.

With 1.7 kilometers left, the five leaders were still within 1 second of each other. On the last hill, Sweden’s Charlotte Kalla threw down, surging ahead. Only Norwegian favorite Marit Bjoergen could respond, leaving the other three battling for bronze a little more than 10 seconds back. Bjoergen shot past Kalla down the stretch for her eighth Olympic medal, fourth gold. Heidi Weng made it two medals for Norway, just edging out fellow Norwegian Therese Johaug and Finland’s Aino-Kaisa Saarinen.

Quote: “My fantastic girls … You are my strength in thick and thin. Thanks for the commemorating armbands. Forever grateful, whether there will be medals or not.” – Astrid Uhrenholdt Jacobsen

Full results

olympic sports, winter sports

Race and the Winter Olympics: Is this a joke?

Slate took the odd step this week of re-running an odd piece from 2006: “White Snow, Brown Rage: The racial case against the Winter Olympics.”

It’s a laundry list of stereotypes. Snowboarders are stoners who aren’t doing a real sport. Winter sports people are named “Muffy, Buffy and Tad.” (Being relatively close to Dracula’s homeland, Sochi could probably use a Buffy.) The only black people are Jamaican bobsledders.

The comments on Slate this time around are divided. Some say this piece is terrible. Some say it’s a joke that would have made more sense if it had run in National Review, the publication for whom author Reihan Salam usually writes. Move over, Jon Stewart!

But in the comments and on Twitter, the piece sparked some arguments among people who clearly don’t think it’s a joke. And we Winter Olympics fans have long had to deal with people who want to dismiss it all as an exercise for Muddy, Buffy, Tad and a lot of skaters in sequins.

So, for the record, let’s smash those stereotypes:

1. Team USA is not a country club. Bode Miller grew up in a cabin without electricity or running water. Even Nancy Kerrigan, so often posited as the princess against working-class underdog Tonya Harding, grew up in a middle-class household.

2. Athletes are sacrificing a lot, financially. Athletes and the federations seek out sponsors, a bit of crowd-funding, and occasionally food stamps.

And this should make the National Review happy — unlike a lot of other countries, the federal government puts barely a nickel toward Olympic sports. This is a country in which a baseball team extorted more than $600 million from the nation’s cash-strapped capital to build a danged ballpark. And in a country in which one of the top issues is whether we’re all “exploiting” college football and basketball players by offering them nothing other than a free education, room and board, and a lot of incidental perks.

3. The Games (and the rest of the world) are more diverse than you think. What do a Dutch speedskater and a Russian biathlete have in common besides their unpronounceable names and skin color? Not much. Now consider Japan and South Korea — both powerhouses on ice. Not a lot of Tads and Muffys on these teams.

Now think about this: Why do we have a terror threat at these Olympics? It’s not a bunch of people in Afghanistan’s caves threatening the USA. It’s people in disputed territories that creep within 100 miles of Sochi. Imagine if Quebec’s separatists had been in active conflict with Canadian and American forces, and other armed ethnic groups had joined the mix in a complex patchwork of unease and distrust. Now imagine holding the Olympics in Lake Placid.

(I don’t see it online, but I recommend Alexander Wolff’s pains-taking look at the sports and politics of Georgia and the surrounding region in Sports Illustrated. Strong research, powerful work.)

4. The Games are fun to watch. You may not like figure skating, but you might like hockey. You might not like hockey, but you love snowboarding. You might not like snowboarding, but curling is pretty cool. And a lot of these things aren’t televised on a regular basis in the USA. This is your chance to watch.

Let’s close with a bit of irony. The story in question mentioned Indian luger Shiva Keshavan. He’s back again, though he’s competing as an “Independent Olympic Participant.” That’s because India’s Olympic federation is in shambles, and it has nothing to do with the Olympics being some activity for white folks. Keshavan actually trains with the Americans and teaches them yoga.

Then in training this week, he provided one of the highlights of the Olympics. Watch this.

And we’re just getting started. Have fun watching and following all the action at SportsMyriad, where a bunch of us are excited to be getting up at all hours to watch the Games unfold.