mma

Sanchez-Kampmann: MMA judges, statistics and damn lies

One certainty about close decisions: They’ll be followed in the blogoTwittersphere by cries of incompetence and wails to reform the judging system. Sometimes they have a point (Pham-Garcia, Beebe-Easton, Dunham-Sherk, Fukuda-Ring). Sometimes they’re just overblown wails from folks who don’t want to admit someone else might have an argument.

The latter is the case in three recent UFC main events: Edgar-Maynard, Penn-Fitch and last night’s Sanchez-Kampmann fight. (The only other major fight this year with a contested decision was Griffin-Franklin, but in that case, the only people who think Franklin won work in his corner.)

One thing these fights have in common — they’re very good fights. Edgar-Maynard was fight of the night, with a thrilling comeback from a champion who was all but knocked out in the first round of five. Penn-Fitch was compelling, with Fitch needing and getting a 10-8 round to force the draw after Penn’s surprising takedown strategy gave him the edge through two. Sanchez-Kampmann was so good that Dana White has given the fighters nearly half the gate.

My colleague Sergio Non and I think Sanchez won, and we’re joined by Josh Gross, Dana White and 52% of those voting at Sergio’s blog. We’re not joined by Jordan Breen, who would like to tell the judges and all of us who agree with them that we don’t know what we’re watching.

A complicating factor here is statistical. Compustrike says Kampmann outstruck Sanchez 33-18 overall (19-15 in power strikes) in round 2, then 34-19 (14-17 deficit in power) in round 3. That would suggest Kampmann won round 2, while Sanchez could take round 3 based on power strikes and his takedown. (Round 1 isn’t in dispute: Kampmann dominated, though not quite enough for a 10-8 round.)

FightMetric’s numbers are a little different. They have Kampmann ahead in round 2 — 27-22 total, 26-22 “significant.” If you look at the graphic and break out the “power” numbers, Sanchez wins 20-17. But the “decision” tab awards the round, barely, to Kampmann.

Round 3 is virtually even in strikes — 19-19 total and 19-19 “significant,” though again, Sanchez has the edge in “power,” 17-7. And Sanchez’s takedown, and the round is his.

The numbers differ between the services, but that’s helpful. Strikes that are clear from one vantage point may be less clear from another, and it helps to get multiple angles.

But the stats are still limited. What they don’t show is that Kampmann spent far too much of rounds 2 and 3 backing away from Sanchez. He says he wasn’t hurt in round 2, but he certainly seemed to be. And in round 3, the takedown he finally surrendered after several failed attempts from Sanchez showed that one fighter was still fresh and one wasn’t.

Those are subjective observations. But if we take those out, then we’re left with amateur boxing. Tap tap tap — hey, I’m winning 3-0!

So here’s the question: Can you change the system to make it so that Penn-Fitch, Edgar-Maynard and Kampmann-Sanchez have clearer winners?

Let’s try: The Japanese style of scoring “the whole fight”? Not really. Edgar’s late surge still balances out Maynard’s early dominance. Penn won maybe nine minutes of his fight against Fitch, but Fitch won the last six more decisively. Reverse that for Kampmann-Sanchez.

A half-point scoring system that so intrigues Josh Gross? He says that would make last night’s bout a draw.

Going five rounds instead of three? It didn’t help with Edgar-Maynard — the challenger took a 10-8 round and a 10-9, and the other three were 10-9 for the champion. Fitch likely would’ve gone on to win, though it’s hard to tell if Penn’s approach would’ve changed. (Fitch would always be an overwhelming favorite against Penn in a five-rounder, anyway.) Sanchez had taken the momentum against Kampmann, but had he also given everything he had in those last two rounds?

Judge primarily by “damage” (though that gives ammunition to anti-MMA lawmakers)? OK then, Penn beats Fitch, having busted up his face in a round many people thought he lost. Sanchez was more visually “damaged” than Kampmann, but Kampmann certainly seemed to be in rough shape at times.

No solution really gives us a definitive winner in a close fight. But I’ll offer three anyway:

1. Four-round main events. Yes, four. Then let judges judge the whole fight as a tiebreaker if it ends up 38-38. This prevents the typical three-rounder in which one fighter convincingly wins one round while another fighter takes two close rounds, then wins 29-28.

2. Judo system. MMA, like judo, is supposed to be about fighting to a finish. Judo has specific criteria for finishing a fight — a fully controlled throw, a hold on the mat for 25 seconds or an opponent’s submission. That’s an ippon. Judo also has a waza-ari (half point) for a throw that isn’t quite an ippon or a hold of 20 seconds. Two waza-ari = one ippon. If the fight ends with one fighter having one waza-ari and the other having none, the waza-ari wins. Then there’s a yuko, which serves as a tiebreaker if each fighter has one or no waza-ari.  So in other words, you’re rewarded for coming close to a finish.

The judo system might work for some of these fights. Penn would get one or two yuko in the first two rounds, but Fitch would get a waza-ari for the third. Kampmann would get a waza-ari in the first and would win out over Sanchez’s yukos in the second and third.

And yet, we’d still find something to argue about. So that brings us to the entirely tongue-in-cheek suggestion:

3. Penalty kicks. Hey, if you really don’t want a draw …

The more important part is the long term. Dana White says Kampmann won’t be treated like a loser, which hopefully means he won’t get the typical “three straight losses and you’re out” treatment that most UFC fighters get. (Kampmann lost a split decision last time out against Jake Shields, another close one that could’ve gone his way.) Getting dominated in a fight should push a fighter farther down a ladder than a fight decided by a virtual coin flip.

And that is, once again, a subjective judgment. Can’t avoid it.

 

medal projections, olympic sports

2012 boxing: Welcome, women!

Olympic boxing goes co-ed in 2012, with three women’s weight classes added. To keep the total numbers down, in accordance with the IOC’s present tactic of limiting the Summer Games’ size, they’ve cut one men’s weight class and reduced numbers in other classes so that the total number of boxers will barely change.

Adding women will be a tremendous help for the USA, whose men’s program is in rough shape. The only U.S. medalists from the 2008 Games and 2009 World Championships have gone pro.

So farewell to the featherweight class, though it seems a shame to lose a distinctive name while keeping “light welterweight” and the absurd “light flyweight.”

Then they pick up with lightweight (60), light welterweight (64), welterweight (69), middleweight (75), light heavyweight (81), heavyweight (91) and super heavyweight (big). I’ll convert this into pounds for the projections. One kg=2.2 pounds.

Boxing is one of the many sports with world championships in odd years. Men’s boxing, anyway. The women’s championships are in even years, and they’ll stay there through 2014 despite their inclusion in the Games. Aside from Worlds, fully global competition is sporadic. The best results we can use for now are the 2009 World Championships and the 2010 rankings, though the latter tends to reward fighters who have been active internationally (in other words, not Americans).

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mma

‘The Ultimate Fighter’: Season 13 cast

Spike just released the cast list for the new season, and so like every other MMA blogger without a full-time office job, I’ve been scouring Sherdog and elsewhere for info about each guy. Here’s what we have — good luck pinning those the records on any TUF cast:

Nordin “Fists of Tangier” Asrih: 16-5-1 (he says 16-6-1); 32-year-old German with a lot of European fights, including one M-1 Challenge loss. Notable losses include Tomasz Drwal and Lucio Linhares.

Shamar Bailey: 10-3, with a couple of fights in Strikeforce. Beat John Kolosci on the Fedor-Rogers undercard. 0-2 in 2010.

Len “The Liger” Bentley: 9-4 (he says 8-4), with one Strikeforce: Challengers bout (a win vs. Marques Daniel). Faced future TUF fighter Cody McKenzie and lost by, what else, a guillotine choke. Army vet.

Mick Bowman: 7-2 (he says 8-2), continuing the pipeline to TUF from from England’s Wolfslair. Like Michael Bisping and others, he says he has sacrificed everything to be here.

Keon “The Black Assassin” Caldwell: Spike says he’s 8-1, but Sherdog says he’s 2-1, with two wins in 2008 and a loss last year.

Chris “C-Murder” Cope: 4-1; last fight was a TKO win over Ron Keslar on Strikeforce’s Fedor-Werdum card.

Zach Davis: 4-1; a Lloyd Irvin fighter who never fought in Virginia on a UWC card? How am I supposed to scout him?

Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson: 10-2; had seven fights in 2009. Notable opponent is Karen Darabedyan (loss).

Clay Harvison: 6-1 (he says 8-2); spread out his fights over four years. At 30, he’s second-oldest on the show after Asrih.

Myles “Fury” Jury: 9-0 (he says 8-0); Spike gives age as 22, and yet Sherdog lists a fight for him in 2005. Most of his fights in King of the Cage. No fight longer than 2:55 – 4 TKOs, 2 tapouts due to strikes, 1 armbar, 1 guillotine, 1 neck crank.

Ryan McGillivray: 11-4-1; Canadian with experience in MFC and TFC. Sherdog gives nickname as “The Kid,” but now that he’s all of 24 years old, perhaps he’s shedding that tag.

Ramsey Nijem: 4-1 (Spike) or 4-0 (Sherdog); another Utah fighter testing himself in TUF. Once shared a card with two TUF vets — Josh Burkman (who won) and Junie Browning (who did not). Also just 22. Palestinian refugee.

Charlie “Superstar” Rader: 16-5 (Spike) or 13-3 (Sherdog). Either record is impressive. Knocked out TUF vet Josh Rafferty on Bellator card in September. Based on records, he might be the favorite.

Javier “Junty Boy” Torres: 3-0 (Spike) or 2-0 (Sherdog). Two first-round wins in 2010.

Enjoy the official introductory video. Looks like we also saw a good bit of Torres in the intriguing audition video, from which none of the other interviewees made the cut. Look carefully at the video, and you’ll see Dana White and Joe Silva perusing their records from Sherdog.

Other roundups:

– Michael David Smith, MMA Fighting: Digs up YouTube footage of Caldwell.

(Will update in a bit.)

basketball, medal projections, olympic sports, soccer

2012 ball sports: Yay, team! Except you folks with bats

Let’s see … I’ve done projections for archery, athletics, badminton … let’s call up the spreadsheet and see what’s next:

Baseball!

Oh … right.

Baseball and softball are gone from the Olympic program because, as we all know, it’s easier to turn an 18-hole golf course into an Olympic venue than it is to put a fence around a small part of an Olympic green and have baseball and softball games. Or something like that.

That still leaves us with a few team sports: Basketball, field hockey, soccer, handball, volleyball (beach and indoor) and water polo. (We’ll save synchronized swimming for later.)

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soccer

Could D.C. fans find Freedom in W-League?

Here’s what we know about women’s soccer in the D.C. area and what we don’t know, all leading up to a couple of hypotheticals:

KNOW: The WPS team formerly known as the Washington Freedom is now magicJack’s Washington Freedom. Yes, magicJack … not magicTalk. Dan Borislow, the team owner, says the product name “magicTalk” will be changing.

DON’T KNOW: How many, if any, games this team will play anywhere near Washington. The schedule released today says the following: “The home venue for magicJack’s Washington Freedom will be Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton, Florida. The team might play one or two of its home games in the Washington, D.C. area.”

KNOW: Barring an unexpected construction surge, the team will break the record for smallest WPS crowd. Our Game contacted the university’s assistant director for facilities, Mitch Silverman, who said the team would play all of its games at an on-campus stadium that would hold 1,200-1,500 fans. By my hasty calculations scanning through the 2010 and 2009 results, the current record is 1,878.

DON’T KNOW: Whether anyone in South Florida has noticed that they’re getting a soccer team loaded with some of the best women’s soccer players anywhere (Abby Wambach, Hope Solo, Christie Rampone, Shannon Boxx). General news searches for “freedom wambach” and “freedom ‘florida atlantic'” turned up nothing. A search for team owner “Borislow” turned up nothing at the Miami Herald and Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel sites. And these are papers with excellent soccer reporters. That’s how quietly Borislow is doing things.

KNOW: The Maryland SoccerPlex, the Freedom’s home for the last seven years, will be the home field for the W-League’s Washington FC.

DON’T KNOW: Who owns Washington FC. (Yes, I’m looking into it.)

KNOW: Borislow, who bought the Freedom from the Hendricks family (WUSA founders), owns the Freedom trademark and could be stuck with it thanks to the complexities of uniform contracts with Puma. If he were to stop using that trademark, it could revert to WPS. But it’s a little murky from that point.

DON’T KNOW: Whether Borislow could sell or bestow that trademark to Washington FC. When asked if he would be willing to let a new club inherit the Freedom name and the Freedom’s relationships with youth clubs, Borislow said, “I would do anything to help youth soccer.” He wasn’t sure whether he could grant Washington FC the rights to the name.

KNOW: WPS has no leverage with Borislow. He most likely saved the league from extinction. If he hadn’t stepped up, WPS might not exist. And no one in the Washington area did it.

DON’T KNOW: Whether women’s soccer as a whole will be better off this way. I asked aloud on Twitter today whether fans would’ve preferred that the remaining WPS teams simply fold into the W-League, where they can play as professional teams. The reaction ranged from indifference to enthusiasm.

So is the best solution for Washington fans to hope that the W-League Washington FC is run by ambitious folks who can reclaim the Freedom name and build a team that could possibly jump into WPS if the league is healthy down the road? Possibly.

Can they do it?

We don’t know.

olympic sports

Here comes the judge …

Time for that annual tradition for much of the country: Watching the Westminster Dog Show. (Or, if you work in journalism, creating Westminster-related content that will get startling traffic numbers.)

It’s fun to watch, but does anyone really have a clue about the judging? We see the judges peek in their mouths, stroke their coats and watch them trot, but if not for the expert commentators, most of us couldn’t tell first place from last.

That difficulty isn’t unique, though. Judging is an issue in MMA, even though the actions and their impact are often easy to see.

Then come Olympic sports — gymnastics, diving, figure skating, etc. The action is subtle and often goes quickly. Having seen Olympic diving first-hand in Beijing, I can offer this recap: Jump, flip flip flip, splash. Sure, you can judge the splash, but everything else happens too quickly for most mortals to process. The splash just tells us whether or not the diver got through the whole thing. (As Norm MacDonald once said, there are two types of cliff divers — “grand champion” and “stuff on a rock.”)

Which brings us to a poll …

[poll id=”5″]

mma

A farewell to Fedor? Plus other Strikeforce thoughts

One unfortunate aspect of being a latecomer to MMA is that I clearly missed some of the best fighters in their prime. I know Chuck Liddell dominated for years, but the first time I saw him in person, Rashad Evans knocked him unconscious. A couple more KOs later, he’s done.

Fedor Emelianenko is a more complicated story. Though he looks like your middle-aged uncle, he’s only 34, not too old for a sport that sees many fighters remain competitive past 40. But his glory years were a long time ago.

Since beating Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira on New Year’s Eve 2004, the only fighter he has beaten who has had significant wins after facing Fedor is the erratic Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic. Everyone else was on the downside of his career (Mark Coleman, Mark Hunt, Tim Sylvia) or not an appropriate matchup (Hong Man Choi, Matt Lindland). Andrei Arlovski was beating Fedor he flew into a Fedor punch, and the man with the vampire teeth has been knocked out three straight times since then. Brett Rogers gave Fedor fits.

Then, at last, came the losses. Fabricio Werdum may have been lucky to land a submission while Fedor was in what seemed to be a good position. But tonight, Antonio Silva manhandled him. The second round teetered close to a 10-7 round, which is as rare in MMA as a T-shirt without a garish design.

Given Fedor’s sporadic activity, the result of nagging hand injuries and his stubborn management, it’s been difficult to assess his dedication to training and his form. Tonight, you’d have to conclude that he’s just not the old Fedor. Had he signed with the UFC, there’s no reason to think Brock Lesnar, Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin or Junior dos Santos couldn’t have done to Fedor what Silva did to him tonight.

Strikeforce’s Scott Coker is insisting we’ll see Fedor again in the organization. At this point, it’s hardly worth it. Fedor hinted strongly at retirement in his postfight comments, and that wouldn’t be a bad decision. Another option: Could anyone blame Fedor if he took a couple of ceremonial farewell fights in Japan and Russia to say goodbye where he was most successful?

Strikeforce simply can’t afford to tie its fortunes too tightly to a fighter who is anything but the crafty, invincible legend he was six years ago. They’re not repeating the mistake of EliteXC in overhyping a fighter (Kimbo Slice) who had never done anything to warrant legend status, but they have to be prepared to move on. The foundation has to be strong enough to stand on its own.

Similarly, the announcing team Showtime has in place does Strikeforce no favors by treating it soooo seriously. That extends to the ring announcers who spend a couple of minutes per fight telling us that the guy walking to the cage is “respected” or “heavy-handed.” Then Gus Johnson gets Mauro Ranallo and Frank Shamrock to explain again how big this Strikeforce event really is. The more they talk about it, the less we’re inclined to believe it.

The funny thing is that Strikeforce looks and sounds much better for the prelims on HDNet, with Michael Schiavello and Bas Rutten on the mikes. They are by no means disrespectful to the fighters, but they have fun. They allow fans to share their excitement rather than imploring them to be excited.

To their credit, Ranallo and Shamrock are perceptive commentators. When the technical skills aren’t there, as was the case in Chad Griggs’ wild-swinging win over Gian Villante, they say so. But when they lurch into salesman mode, they do so rather awkwardly.

Ideally, Schiavello and Rutten could call the fights, with Ranallo doing interviews and Shamrock giving analysis between fights or between rounds. Make it entertaining, and it’ll sell itself.

soccer

Style points: Why everything you think about the present or future U.S. soccer mentality is wrong

Soccer America’s Best of American Soccer 2010 has a terrific profile of FC Dallas coach Schellas Hyndman, whose breakout year in 2010 is just a small part of his compelling story.

His background is one reason why I’ve found the stereotypes of U.S. soccer in this otherwise interesting BigSoccer thread, which popped up in response to my ESPN piece on Claudio Reyna’s quest to overhaul U.S. youth development, so frustrating. The stereotypes say U.S. coaches are all about finding athletic players and aren’t interested in having decent touch on the ball or other soccer skills. If players have creative flair, it’s coached out of them.

Sure, you could find plenty of examples in which that’s true. But you can also find plenty of counterexamples.

In the 1990s, before and just after MLS launched, the most influential coaches in the USA were college coaches. And if you look at that group, you see so many exceptions that you start to wonder about the rule.

Start with Hyndman (SMU 1984-2008), who came to this country from China via Macau. He is a martial arts master who applies that discipline and focus (but not its kicks and punches) to the possession style he learned on a long sojourn to Brazil.

Then you have Argentina-bred George Tarantini (N.C. State 1985-2010), who recruited playmakers such as Tab Ramos but surrounded him with bruisers who were masters at off-the-ball, away-from-ref’s-eyes physicality. (Tarantini also coached a Cuban refugee named Albertin Montoya, who is also featured in the Soccer America year in review after coaching FC Gold Pride to fleeting glory.)

U.S. coach Bob Bradley (Princeton 1984-95) works far harder at building ties within his team than he does at winning over fans with bravado on the field or in press conferences. That gives him a reputation of being a prototypical overcontrolling U.S. coach. Yet he’s sensitive to overcoaching — check this funny anecdote from Time magazine (HT: Stan Collins) in which Bradley suggests to his daughter’s coach that he tone down the yelling, and the coach smacks him down because he’s just a “parent.”

We haven’t even mentioned yet that two of the most successful MLS coaches are Bruce Arena (Virginia 1978-95) and Sigi Schmid (UCLA 1980-99), neither of whom fits the mold. And their thoughts on soccer aren’t similar to those of Steve Sampson (Santa Clara 1986-93), who unleashed the 3-6-1 on the World Cup in 1998 for better or for worse.

Not all of these coaches are popular among the hard-core fans who want to see the USA play like Spain. Some of them have used negative tactics from time to time. But they’re hardly a group that can be painted with one brush.

Neither are the players they’ve developed. For all the talk of U.S. coaches focusing on big galoots, the prototype for ball-winning defensive midfielders was Richie Williams, who is roughly 10 inches tall.

Perry Kitchen was a highly sought-after prospect from Akron, where Caleb Porter is the latest “it” guy in the college ranks whose team plays the “right” way, and yet he walked straight from the MLS draft podium to a grilling from Paul Gardner over how often he fouls. Which mold does he fit?

The U.S. player who drew the most attention over the past 10 years has been Freddy Adu. He’s not big. He’s not even fast, though Cobi Jones memorably suggested that he try to use his speed rather than tricks.

Some people claim Adu was never that good, though everyone from Ray Hudson to European clubs to the U-17 defenses he shredded may differ. Some say Peter Nowak, not exactly a “U.S. coach” at that point in his career, coached his improvisational flair out of him and undermined his confidence.

Not I’m surprised to see BigSoccer conventional wisdom contradict itself. Despite evidence to the contrary, BigSoccer posters are convinced U.S. coaches prefer the big brutes. Another BigSoccer meme suggests the U.S. would be much better if it could convince its athletes to choose soccer over football and basketball. Most of those “athletes” are considerably bigger than the typical soccer team.

The overriding point is this: The USA is a large, diverse country. Its coaches and players come from different backgrounds and offer different talents.

That explains Arena’s skepticism in the most pointed quote in my ESPN story. He says this country is simply too big and too diverse to develop one particular style that fits all.

And so it surely must be folly to suggest that the USA already has one particular mindset without even trying to impose one. Right?

medal projections, olympic sports

2012 badminton: Any hope for Europe?

Badminton is one of several Olympic sports that thrives in Asia, gets a smattering of interest in Europe and is mostly invisible elsewhere. In Beijing, the badminton venue flat-out rocked.

OK, so I can’t show you how loud it was. Pretty, though, isn’t it?

The hosts won eight of the 15 medals in this buoyant atmosphere, which was enough to turn a contender into a medalist. The other medals went to South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia. All hotbeds of the sport, all expected to win medals at any competition, anywhere.

But Europe has a few people who can play as well. Denmark has had a handful of Olympic medals, as has 2012 host Britain. Perhaps a friendlier atmosphere in London will help?

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medal projections, olympic sports, track and field

2012 track and field projections: Big year for USA?

One danger in projecting the 2012 Games, particularly in track and field (or athletics), is that smaller countries end up underrepresented. In some cases, their athletes aren’t participating in the Diamond League or other notable meets.

Most U.S. athletes were in action in the non-championship year, many establishing themselves as medal favorites. That might change after the 2011 World Championships.

It’s hard to say the USA will win 33 medals in athletics, which is what the projection shows for now. The past few Games for the USA: Beijing 23, Athens 25, Sydney 16, Atlanta 23, Barcelona 30, Seoul 26. So 33 would be a record for the post-boycott era.

But the USA, for better or for worse, is the big dog heading into every Olympics. Americans simply aren’t the underdog in this sport. We’ll see a few upsets that keep the USA’s medal count down.

So remember that the projection is designed to point out the favorites — the USA, Kenya, Russia, Jamaica and a resurgent Germany.

If you missed the event-by-event projection, check out men’s running, women’s running and the field events.