soccer

The real controversies of U.S. Soccer in 2016

Eric Wynalda was not the most controversial speaker I saw at the NSCAA Convention this week. That honor goes to AYSO’s Scott Snyder.

Snyder criticized the U.S. Soccer E and D license programs, saying they’re geared toward coaches on a professional track and don’t address the needs of parent coaches, who make up the majority of coaches that work with kids in their formative years under age 12. He pointed fingers at “superclubs” who have tryouts and cut 6-year-olds to fuel big business. He said the Philadelphia Union Academy has hula hoops and other gear to teach kids physical literacy — lessons they should have received around age 5-8 but didn’t because we were too busy coaching them win a bleeping U7 game.

The hammer, which would have echoed through Twitter if Snyder were a Hall of Fame player like Wynalda: Elite players will make it despite our involvement. In other words, players make players. Coaches don’t.

And while we’re trying to make prodigies out of our U7s, we’re driving a lot of them away from the game. Fewer players. And therefore, down the line, fewer elite players.

Add to that the elephant in the Baltimore Convention Center — the change to birth-year age groups. Communication on that topic has been abysmal. U.S. youth leaders simply don’t know what they’re allowed to do. Plenty of clubs’ coaches and technical directors think the change might make sense for the oldest and most competitive levels of youth soccer, but they don’t understand why they have to do it with their U-Littles. (They don’t, but the USSF simply hasn’t broadcast that fact.)

Bottom line: “Elite” coaches have declared war on recreational play. Both sides are guaranteed to lose.

But I covered some of these issues at SoccerWire and will add to that in the next week, and you all want to read more about Wynalda’s session. That’s fine. The point I wanted to make first was that the most pressing issues are not what Wynalda talked about. I’m making you eat your vegetables (youth issues) before getting your dessert (the Wynalda talk).

Before Wynalda started, he and I talked a bit about getting older (we’re close to the same age) and how we care a lot less about what other people think. He also says he’s impatient. He wants to see the USA win a World Cup in his lifetime.

And yet, Wynalda seems more conciliatory and more generous than he came across in the past. He may throw a little bit of red meat to the MLS-bashing fringe on Twitter, but he doesn’t hate the league or those in it. He wants it to be better.

The issue isn’t talent or coaching, he insists. It’s whether players are challenged.

He tells a fun story from his Bundesliga days. After a loss, he made what seemed to be an innocuous joke about his sock. A teammate threw a shoe at him, opening a cut on his face that required stitches. The trainer suggested he go apologize for joking.

So how do we replicate that mentality in MLS? (We’ll assume for sake of argument that we want to — maybe we’d rather see swashbuckling teams that attack all the time and shrug off the occasional 4-3 loss as the season’s going OK.) He says promotion and relegation would help bring that about.

That said, he has a pragmatic streak. He’s not expecting pro/rel to happen tomorrow.

Still, I’d disagree with some of his depictions of pro finances and ambitions in this country. He harped on MLS’s alleged $100 million annual losses (not as frightening as it seems in a 19-team league, and also said in the context of a CBA negotiation, so take it with a grain of salt) and posited that they need to feed the beast with expansion fees. The counterargument: MLS isn’t “losing” money — it’s reinvesting. If they weren’t building facilities, expanding staffs and raising salaries, they’d surely be making money. But they’re doing all those things because they want to keep progressing.

Wynalda also said the lack of promotion crushed the dreams of hundreds of clubs across the country. But most lower-division clubs are there by choice. A couple of clubs have stars in their eyes about how their NPSL membership should grant them the chance to move up the pyramid strictly by merit, ignoring both the difficulties of establishing such a pyramid merely 20 years after top-level pro soccer was dead in this country and the fact that European teams don’t climb to the top without megarich owners in search of a new plaything. (I love the Bournemouth story, too, but does it happen without a Russian petrochemical bigwig? No.)

He has convinced me (and he got the room to applaud my conversion) that MLS should play a fall-to-spring schedule, with the caveat that it should take a long winter break. It could be awkward — the midseason break might end up longer than the break between seasons — but I now think the pros outweigh the cons. Play MLS Cup in June, away from football (which Wynalda, again showing his pragmatic streak, knows will be TV’s big dog for the foreseeable future). Align the transfer windows with Europe.

Now, to be honest, I haven’t really changed. I floated an Apertura/Clausura model with late-spring playoffs back in 2010.

So Wynalda’s session was full of fun discussion threads. I enjoyed it, and I enjoy my Twitter banter with him.

But these are, for the most part, idle discussions. Pro/rel isn’t happening soon.

I do wonder if we can change the culture in MLS to make it more challenging. I don’t think that change has to come from a systemic overhaul. My guess is German teams threw shoes in the locker room generations ago, before the big money rolled in.

And I’m not sure that’s an accurate depiction of MLS locker rooms these days, anyway. When I regularly went to MLS locker rooms in the mid- to late 00s, the losing team’s locker room usually had a dank pall seeping in. Taylor Twellman was not a pleasant person when the Revs lost.

Here’s a story to counter Wynalda’s story: Brian Straus and I were once part of a small group of journalists stuck in the RFK corridor while the Houston Dynamo broke league rules and kept the locker room door shut for about 30 minutes after the game. When we finally got in, Dom Kinnear was pleasantly professional. But a whiteboard behind him had a fresh fist-sized hole in it.

Change comes slowly in MLS, at least after Garber’s first couple of years, when he ditched the shootout, started SUM, etc. The single-entity structure has evolved, but it’s hard to see why it still necessary at all. The last CBA could’ve given players a bit more.

(Incidentally, if you think the NPSL is the answer to your anti-MLS dreams when it comes to league business practices, take a look at this sheet from the NPSL’s booth …)

IMG_1567

So MLS needs watchdogs to prod it along. That’s good. But we have other needs that are more pressing.

Wynalda closed with a comment that drew a rousing ovation, though I’m sure some of the “Klinsmann good, MLS bad” folks on Twitter will be appalled. It’s horrible, he said, to deny kids the opportunity to play high school soccer.

That’s something we can change without asking people to risk even more money than they already have. Maybe we start there?

soccer

NWSL Draft: The spectacle and the reality

The first NWSL Draft was held in a private room in the Indianapolis Convention Center, with U.S. Soccer staff ferrying info to a neighboring room where a handful of reporters had gathered.

The next two NWSL Drafts had many more people, all crammed into a small couple of rooms in Philadelphia.

This year, it looks like this:

IMG_1558

Which is great. It’ll be a terrific experience for fans. Reporters won’t be dizzy from claustrophobia and heat exhaustion by the third round.

But like the MLS Draft, held yesterday in the same room, there’s a bit of cold water to splash on the proceedings: A lot of these players simply aren’t ready.

I’m not bringing that up to spoil anyone’s big day. A bunch of people with sublime talent and awe-inspiring work ethics are going to get great opportunities today. I’m bringing it up because, in the spirit of the other NSCAA sessions I’m attending, I’m looking at the overall structure of the sport.

If you haven’t listened to the most recent Keeper Notes podcast, race over to your podcasting engine of choice and do so now. Jen Cooper chats with Hal Kaiser and Jen Gordon to go over each team’s needs and the prospects who can fill them.

But it’s clear from the conversation that few teams will walk away from this draft with their immediate needs filled. Kaiser names only three players who stand out — sure-fire No. 1 pick Emily Sonnett (D, Virginia), NCAA Tournament force Raquel Rodriguez (M, Penn State) and Cari Roccaro (D, Notre Dame). And now Roccaro is hurt.

You can say it’s a thin draft class. But in terms of immediate impact, they’ve all been thin classes.

So it’s little wonder that two of the most successful coaches in the NWSL, Seattle’s Laura Harvey and Portland/Washington’s Mark Parsons, haven’t been building through the draft. They realize this is a league that’s quite cruel to 22-year-olds. (And notice that a lot of NWSL teams have now hired coaches from England and Scotland!)

Parsons saw the problem first hand when he took over a young Washington Spirit team. They had young attacking talent to spare — Tiffany McCarty and Caroline Miller had outstanding college resumes, and Stephanie Ochs and Colleen Williams joined McCarty on the U.S. Under-23 team before debuting with the Spirit. Each player had plenty of upside — the book is still open for McCarty and Ochs, long-term. Miller and Williams unfortunately had catastrophic injuries.

But a team simply can’t rely on inexperienced players to do more than fill a hole here and there. Some of the exceptional rookies of the past — Crystal Dunn, Morgan Brian — already had national team experience. Sonnett and Rodriguez bring that experience this time around, and they should be ready to play from Day 1 in the NWSL. North Carolina’s Katie Bowen, who has played for New Zealand, also might be ready to step in right away.

So this year, the priority for NWSL teams beyond the top few picks is to look for players they can bring along over the next couple of years.

The next priority is to step up the development curve so more players are ready.

Parsons was candid late in that first season with the Spirit, lamenting the fundamentals that some of his younger players hadn’t learned. The compressed college season hurts players. Coaches, especially on the men’s side, are pushing for a year-round NCAA schedule so they can play more games with more rest, not relying on waves of substitutions to get exhausted players off the field.

Another factor: Summer play has withered. The decline and demise of the W-League hurts. WPSL play is spotty — some teams can play a quality game, some can’t. The new United Women’s Soccer is trying to fill the void.

Cracking an NWSL lineup as a rookie will never be easy — nor should it be. It’s a credit to the league that the rosters are so strong, filled with experienced players.

But as the league expands (we hope) down the road, development is an issue that needs to be addressed. So when the players drafted today are experienced and ready to lead their teams, they’ll have better and better players coming in to join them.

mma, olympic sports, soccer, sports culture

Back in the podcasting game

The new SportsMyriad podcast features me ranting about the U.S. women’s soccer roster, curling, Rio 2016 prep, youth soccer getting too serious, and of course, the bizarre lawsuit filed against Ronda Rousey by a guy who apparently lives at White Castle.

[spreaker type=standard width=100% autoplay=false episode_id=7519994]

Please let me know what you think. Yes, it goes too long — future podcasts will either be shorter or will have an interview segment.

winter sports

Curling at the crossroads

Here’s why you should be paying attention to curling right now:

  1. The Challenge Round, to fill out the field for the national championships, is underway.
  2. The national championships this year are in the unlikely venue of Jacksonville, Fla., a sure sign that someone is bullish on the idea of curling expanding beyond the states that border Canada.
  3. USA Curling, responding to a couple of lackluster performances in the Olympics, now has a “High Performance” program that dominates discussion at CurlingZone.

The High Performance program is a major change in the way curling teams are formed. Curlers usually pick their own teammates, and it’s common to see siblings or people who live close to each other forming a foursome (or fivesome, with an alternate). The top teams may still resemble all-star teams, like the strong group of former Olympians Erika Brown assembled to win qualification to the 2014 Games.

But the Brown team, while taking a solid fourth place in the 2013 World Championships, flopped in Sochi, going 1-8. That was just the latest in a string of disappointing performances in international competition.

  • 2010 Olympics: Men 2-7, Women 2-7 (skips: John Shuster, Debbie McCormick)
  • 2010 Worlds: Men 4th place; Women 7-4/5th place (Pete Fenson, Erika Brown)
  • 2011 Worlds: Men 3-8, Women 6-5 (Pete Fenson, Patti Lank)
  • 2012 Worlds: Men 4-7, Women 7-4/5th (Heath McCormick, Allison Pottinger)
  • 2013 Worlds: Men 5-6, Women 4th place (Brady Clark, Erika Brown)
  • 2014 Olympics: Men 2-7, Women 1-8 (John Shuster, Erika Brown)
  • 2014 Worlds: Men 3-8, Women 6-5 (Pete Fenson, Allison Pottinger)

More results like this, and the USA could be in danger of missing out on future Olympics and World Championships. The USA is currently seventh in the world in men’s curling and eighth in women’s. Those rankings don’t exactly correspond to the selection criteria for the big tournaments, but they show that the USA’s position is far from guaranteed.

So the High Performance program changed things up, holding tryouts and putting together new teams under national coaches. The soccer analogue — going from House teams based on neighborhoods to Travel teams based on tryouts.

In the first year of this system (2014-15), USA Curling put together three men’s teams and three women’s teams, with one team of each gender reserved for juniors. This year, they added another men’s team — essentially, John Shuster’s team joined the program.

Other than adding Shuster’s team, the biggest change in the HP program was the return of 2006 bronze medalist skip Pete Fenson. In the shuffle, Heath McCormick went back to his old team. The program made a couple more changes on the men’s teams during the year.

On the women’s side, the HP roster barely changed, though the two non-junior teams were switched around.

Meanwhile, Erika Brown assembled an all-new all-star team with three 2010 Olympians — Allison Pottinger, Nicole Joraanstad, Natalie Nicholson. Their results have been better than those posted by the HP teams skipped by Jamie Sinclair and Nina Roth. The junior HP skip, Cory Christensen, has had a promising season.

But the Challenge Round this week is men-only. That’s because only seven teams (eight, if Christensen doesn’t win the U.S. junior championship) have entered nationals.

Four men’s teams got byes past the Challenge Round. All four are in the HP program.

That leaves 20 teams in the Challenge Round. In the following sheet, I’ve listed their World Curling Tour Order of Merit ranking — 2015-16 and overall and a few other numbers. The Order of Merit system gives points for each event, and I’ve given the top performances in from each team as well.

You’ll notice something right away: Shuster is far ahead of the pack. If you look at the top 10 performances of the season, it’s overwhelming:

45.8 – John Shuster, 3rd, Grand Slam Challenge, Sept. 13
38.6 – Craig Brown, 2nd, U.S. Open, Jan. 4
34.4 – Shuster, 1st, Huron ReproGraphics, Nov. 1
29.6 – Shuster, 1st, Curl Mesabi, Dec. 20
26.8 – Shuster, 5th, Point Optical, Sept. 28
25.7 – Brown, 5th, Shorty Jenkins, Sept. 20
21.1 – Shuster, 5th, U.S. Open, Jan. 4
21.0 – Mike Farbelow, 3rd, Huron ReproGraphics, Nov. 1
20.9 – Shuster, 1st, Coors Light Cashspiel, Nov. 29
18.0 – Pete Fenson, 3rd, Curl Mesabi, Dec. 20
18.0 – Todd Birr, 3rd, Curl Mesabi, Dec. 20

The other numbers: USA Curling’s seeding for the Challenge Round (based on past nationals and the OOM) and how many times each team has earned less than 4 OOM points in a single event. (Basically, how often they haven’t been close to the top.)

Then I’ve made my own somewhat subjective ranking, taking all of these numbers into account without making a Nate Silver-style formula.

[gview file=”http://www.sportsmyriad.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/curling-2015-16-Mens-rankings.pdf”%5D

A couple of notes:

  • Lyle Sieg is the world senior champion.
  • Yes, Darryl Horsman is from Arizona. Told you the sport was spreading.
  • “NA” in the Challenge Round seedings means they got a bye. “NE” means Not Entered.

Let’s see how these rankings played out in the first Challenge Round games today:

#12 S. Dropkin 13, #25 Horsman 6
#17 Lilla 8, #21 Clawson 6
#10 Leichter 7, #26 Funk 6
#16 Sieg 11, #20 Sobering 8
#6 Farbelow 10, #19 E. Fenson 0
#3 Clark 6, #22 Workin 4
#13 Corbett 6, #11 Jackson 5
#24 Roe 12, #7 McCormick 5
#5 Birr 9, #23 Deeren 4
#14 Smith 7, #9 Bahr 5

So the only three upsets were #13 Corbett over #11 Jackson (which was not an upset if you’re going by the Challenge Round rankings that put Corbett fifth and Jackson 12th), Smith over Bahr, and the stunning win for Roe over McCormick.

The same games, by Challenge Round rankings (and re-sorted):

#1 Clark 6, #16 Workin 4
#15 Roe 12, #2 McCormick 5
#3 Birr 9, #15 Deeren 4
#4 Farbelow 10, #13 E. Fenson 0
#5 Corbett 6, #12 Jackson 5
#11 Smith 7, #6 Bahr 5

#7 Leichter 7, #20 Funk 6
#8 S. Dropkin 13, #19 Horsman 6
#9 Lilla 8, #18 Clawson 6
#10 Sieg 11, #17 Sobering 8

The bracket (basically a triple-elimination tournament) shows us how big Roe and Smith’s wins were. Like Clark, Birr, Farbelow and Corbett, they’re now two wins away from qualifying for nationals.

Clark, Birr and Farbelow should make it through. McCormick would be a favorite based on past years, but he’s looking shaky now.

medal projections, olympic sports

What happens when you search for Olympic sports

Yes, SportsMyriad will have medal projections in 2016, but we’re doing things a little differently. Note the “we.” Not “I.” I’m getting help.

As preparation for the projections, I did a few searches on every Summer Olympic sport today. It’s difficult. So many summer sports are also recreational, and it’s hard to find coverage of the ISATWHATEVER World Cup amid all the stuff geared toward the practitioner, not the fan. Other sports are far more popular outside the Olympics.

Here’s what you find for each sport:

Archery: “I killed a bear. Check out these photos.”

Badminton: China, China, China, hey, can we make England as good as China?

Basketball: 405 tips for your fantasy team.

Beach volleyball: Duhhhh … they don’t wear much. (FWIW, I will never understand the fascination with skimpy beach volleyball apparel. It’s not as if track and field athletes are wearing parkas and golf pants.)

Boxing: We hate Floyd Mayweather.

Canoe/kayak: 405 tips for whitewater.

Cycling, BMX: Buy our gnarly BMX gear.

Cycling, mountain bike: Buy our gnarly mountain bike gear.

Cycling, road: Buy this $7,278 piece of equipment that will make you go slightly faster.

Cycling, track: … you wanna do what? ….

Diving: My latest vacation photos from the Great Barrier Reef.

Equestrian: 405 tales from veterinary research.

Fencing: Take the stuff you get at Home Depot and build this!

Golf: (A) 405 tips for your short game or (B) will Tiger Woods ever regain his form?

Gymnastics, artistic: My 405-part series on the scoring system and how it affects the way we teach 5-year-olds.

Gymnastics, rhythmic: noun, a form of gymnastics emphasizing dancelike rhythmic routines …”

Gymnastics, trampoline: Please take our trampoline. Free to anyone who can take it.

Handball: “Oh, you mean team handball? No one who writes about it actually calls it by that name.”

Hockey: “Oh, you mean field hockey? No one who writes about it actually calls it by that name.”

Judo: 405 tips for improving … oh, wait, Ronda Rousey’s mom just tweeted …

Modern pentathlon: 404 not found

Rowing: Anything with the word “row” (Front Row, Back Row) or even “Rowe.”

Rugby: 405 reasons England will never be as good as Australia or New Zealand.

Sailing: 405 tips for sailing the Chesapeake.

Shooting: “From my cold, dead hands …”

Soccer: Will Mourinho replace Van Gaal? And why didn’t Carli Lloyd win goal of the year?

Swimming: 405 tips for improving your lap time

Synchronized swimming: … um … what?

Table tennis: Wanna buy our table?

Taekwondo: Your dojo is a joke, dude.

Tennis: (A) 405 tips for improving your backhand or (B) how ridiculously awesome is Serena?

Track and field: We really love this sport in Oregon.

Triathlon: 405 tips for improving your transition from swim to bike.

Volleyball: “VolleyBall Girl Asses.” I wish I was kidding.

Water polo: “Water-Polo Hunks.” Turnabout is fair play?

Weightlifting: 405 ways to pick things up and put them down.

Wrestling: “JOHN CENA! WHOOOOOO!!!”

soccer

U.S. women’s soccer: The fight for 18 in 2016

You would think the shrinking of the national team roster from the Women’s World Cup (23 players) to the Olympics (18) means some veterans get left home and less experienced players have trouble breaking through.

But a rash of retirements has changed all that. Jill Ellis is looking at new players among the 26 called into camp in January. She didn’t have much choice.

That’s actually not unusual. Let’s look at the past first, then size up the competition for 2016:

1999-2000: The WWC roster was only 20 in those days. That opened the competition a bit, as did the change in coach, with April Heinrichs replacing Tony DiCicco.

  • Carryovers (14): Scurry, Fair, Pearce (Rampone), Overbeck, Chastain, Whalen, MacMillan, Hamm, Foudy, Parlow, Lilly, Fawcett, Milbrett, Sobrero.
  • Dropped (6): Akers (was named but withdrew), Roberts, Venturini, Fotopoulos, Webber, Ducar
  • Added (4): Serlenga, French, Slaton, Mullinix

2003-04: Still only 20 for the WWC. Heinrichs was the coach for both tournaments but still tinkered a bit. (LA Times story)

  • Carryovers (14): Scurry, Pearce/Rampone, Reddick (Whitehill), Chastain, Boxx, Hamm, Wagner, Foudy, Parlow, Lilly, Fawcett, Sobrero/Markgraf, Hucles, Wambach
  • Dropped (6): Bivens, Roberts, MacMillan, Milbrett, Slaton, Mullinix
  • Added (4): Mitts, Tarpley, O’Reilly, Luckenbill

2007-08: The WWC roster was up to 21. Pia Sundhage replaced Greg Ryan after the 2007 debacle, and a rash of injuries forced many changes.

  • Carryovers (13): Solo, Rampone, Tarpley, Kai, Boxx, O’Reilly, Wagner, Lloyd, Lopez/Cox, Markgraf, Hucles, Chalupny, Barnhart
  • Dropped (8): Scurry, Dalmy, Whitehill (injured), Ellertson, Osborne (injured), Lilly (pregnant), Jobson, Wambach (injured)
  • Added (5): Mitts, Buehler, Rodriguez, Cheney, Heath

2011-12: Rosters still at 21, and Sundhage stuck with her favorites.

  • Carryovers (17): Solo, Mitts, Rampone, Sauerbrunn, O’Hara, LePeilbet, Boxx, Rodriguez, O’Reilly, Lloyd, Cheney, Morgan, Wambach, Rapinoe, Buehler, Heath, Barnhart
  • Dropped (4): Krieger (injured), Cox, Lindsey, Loyden
  • Added (1): Leroux

So as the team heads from Vancouver to Rio, they’ll have the same coach (as in 2004 and 2012) but a lot of people who won’t be available (as in 2008).

The training camp has 26 players, but just 16 of them played in the World Cup. Four (Wambach, Boxx, Chalupny, Holiday) have retired. Rodriguez is pregnant and probably a safe bet not to play. Even if Christie Rampone and Megan Rapinoe can come back from injuries and no one else is hurt, bringing the number of available WWC 2015 players up to 18, we’d still see at least one new player on the roster unless Ellis makes the unusual decision to take three goalkeepers.

Position-by-position:

Goalkeepers: Hope Solo is still the starter for the foreseeable future, pending court appearances this year. The assault charges against her were reinstated in October. The most recent action in the case is an “order for change of judge.”

Ashlyn Harris played 270 minutes in 2015. Alyssa Naeher played 90. Adrianna Franch, getting her first call since 2013, is the other goalkeeper in camp. They’re competing for one spot, two if Solo can’t go.

Defenders: Six WWC carryovers are in camp, and with each of the last two Olympic rosters carrying six defenders, they’ll be tough to dislodge. Especially the starters: the fearsome center-back duo of Becky Sauerbrunn and Julie Johnston, left back Meghan Klingenberg, and right back Ali Krieger.

Kelley O’Hara’s versatility is a plus on a small roster. Whitney Engen will face a challenge, but the team will need a reserve center back unless Rampone returns.

The newcomers are Jaelene Hinkle (Western New York) and Emily Sonnett (UVA). Sonnett could challenge Engen and Rampone at center back. Hinkle is primarily a left back, normally a tough position to fill but one in which the USWNT is unusually deep with Klingenberg and O’Hara.

Center midfielders: This was a sore spot early in the World Cup, with Lauren Holiday miscast as a defensive-ish midfielder. Ellis adjusted by adding Morgan Brian along with Holiday and Carli Lloyd, at the expense of a second forward. It worked. Holiday and backup Shannon Boxx are gone, but Lloyd and Brian are sure to make the roster.

That leaves a couple of open spots. Danielle Colaprico (Chicago) is in camp with a chance to be a holding midfielder to free up or back up Brian and Lloyd. Or Ellis could opt for a midfield playmaker, something the USA rarely has, which would keep Lloyd in a box-to-box role and Brian behind them. The options there include Samantha Mewis (Western New York), Rose Lavelle (Wisconsin), and Mallory Pugh (Real Colorado/Mountain View HS).

But the leader for one of these slots might be Lindsey Horan (PSG), usually a forward but slotted into center mid on the Victory Tour.

Wing midfielders: The wings are where WoSo fans start to argue. The training camp roster only lists two — WWC holdovers Tobin Heath and Heather O’Reilly — but a lot of WoSo fans don’t want to write them onto the Oly roster with a Sharpie just yet.

Rapinoe goes here if she’s healthy. Then Ellis could use one of the players listed at forward — Stephanie McCaffrey (Boston) looked sharp on the Victory Tour, and Crystal Dunn (Washington) was the best player in the NWSL last season. Dunn can literally play anywhere on the field from defender to striker.

Forwards: The roster lists six, and the USA hasn’t taken more than four to either of the previous two Olympics. But that list includes Pugh, McCaffrey, and Dunn. (But not Horan.)

That leaves three holdovers. Alex Morgan wasn’t quite herself in 2015 but is still one of the world’s best. Christen Press frequently makes a good case for more time. Sydney Leroux has alternately thrilled and frustrated fans over the past couple of years.

THE WILD GUESS (in decreasing order of confidence per position)

Goalkeepers (2, both holdovers): Solo, Harris

Defenders (6, all holdovers): Sauerbrunn, Johnston, Klingenberg, Krieger, O’Hara, Engen

Midfielders (6, four holdovers): Lloyd, Brian, Heath, O’Reilly, Horan, Mewis

Forwards (4, three holdovers): Morgan, Press, Dunn, Leroux

If Rapinoe is healthy, any midfielder other than Lloyd or Brian could be bumped. I see Dunn as a starter on the wing, so either Heath or O’Reilly could be bumped.

So that’s all of the possible holdovers — 15 from the 16 in camp, with the only one missing out being the No. 3 goalkeeper. If Rapinoe bumps a midfield newcomer, that makes it 16. (Rampone would bump one of the holdover defenders.)

Dunn and Horan have to be considered the leaders to gain the open spots. The 18th spot, which I’ve given to Mewis, could be wide open, especially if Rapinoe can’t go.

But all of the players in camp have a chance. Unfortunately, there’s a big chance that someone will be injured between now and August. And we’ve seen the occasional surprise before.