Month: August 2012

medal projections, olympic sports

The China-USA medal count battle and Olympic projections: Don’t panic!

Posted on by Beau Dure

You may have noticed that China is leading the USA in the medal count through 200 of 302 events. The total numbers* are:

China 73
USA 70

So you may then look at the various medal projections and say, “Gee, I guess Infostrada was right — China will get more than the USA.”

I maintain that the Wall Street Journal projections are looking better than the rest. Here’s why:

For all of China’s success, they’re running only six medals ahead of my projection, and the USA is only three medals behind. My projection was:

USA 113
China 84

So if I have no more errors (ha!) in the projections, it would finish like this:

USA 110
China 90

Now let’s say the results tell us China is stronger than I anticipated and the USA is slightly weaker. That’s not such a dumb thing to say — where I had two athletes who were pretty close, I often went against the Chinese athlete, figuring results in London would be worse than results in Beijing.

We’re roughly two-thirds of the way through the Games, and China is six medals ahead. Let’s extrapolate from there and say they end up nine medals ahead. The USA would end up 4.5 medals behind — let’s call it five. We get this:

USA 108
China 93

What did the Wall Street Journal project?

USA 108
China 92

Freaky. So how is this possible?

Let’s take a look at the remaining medals I’ve projected for China:

Athletics, Men’s 110 m hurdles, Bronze
Table tennis, Men’s team, Gold
Taekwondo, Women’s 49 kg, Gold
Wrestling, Women’s 48 kg free, Bronze
Wrestling, Women’s 63 kg free, Bronze
Boxing, Flyweight (women), Silver
Boxing, Lightweight (women), Bronze
Diving, Women’s 10 m platform, Gold, Silver
Taekwondo, Women’s 57 kg, Gold
Wrestling, Women’s 72 kg free, Bronze
Synchro, Women’s team, Silver
Athletics, Women’s 20 km walk, Bronze
Boxing, Light flyweight, Gold
Boxing, Heavyweight, Bronze
Diving, Men’s 10 m platform, Gold
Volleyball, Women’s team, Bronze

And the remaining medals projected for the USA:

Athletics, Women’s 200 m, Gold, Bronze
Athletics, Men’s 110 m hurdles, Gold
Athletics, Women’s 400 m hurdles, Gold
Athletics, Women’s long jump, Gold
Volleyball, Women’s beach volleyball, Gold, Bronze
Wrestling, Women’s 48 kg free, Bronze
Wrestling, Women’s 63 kg free, Bronze
Athletics, Men’s triple jump, Gold, Bronze
Athletics, Men’s decathlon, Gold, Silver
Athletics, Men’s 200 m, Bronze
Athletics, Men’s 800 m, Bronze
Boxing, Middleweight (women), Bronze
Football, Women’s team, Gold
Taekwondo, Women’s 57 kg, Bronze
Volleyball, Men’s beach volleyball, Gold
Water polo, Women’s team, Gold
Wrestling, Women’s 72 kg free, Bronze
Athletics, Women’s 4×100 m relay, Gold
Athletics, Men’s 4×400 m relay, Gold
Basketball, Men’s team, Gold
Cycling, Men’s BMX, Gold
Cycling, Women’s BMX, Bronze
Taekwondo, Men’s 80 kg, Bronze
Wrestling, Men’s 74 kg free, Gold
Athletics, Men’s 5000 m, Bronze
Athletics, Men’s 4×100 m relay, Silver
Athletics, Women’s 4×400 m relay, Gold
Athletics, Women’s high jump, Silver
Basketball, Women’s team, Gold
Diving, Men’s 10 m platform, Silver
Sailing, Elliot, Gold
Volleyball, Women’s team, Gold
Wrestling, Men’s 84 kg free, Bronze
Wrestling, Men’s 120 kg free, Bronze
Boxing, Flyweight, Bronze
Volleyball, Men’s team, Silver

Quite a difference, isn’t it?

China’s top sports have been swimming (10 medals), badminton (8) and diving (8). Swimming and badminton are done, and diving has only two more events.

Of the remaining 102 medal events, 24 are in track and field. Another 13 are in boxing, 12 in canoe/kayak sprint, 11 are in wrestling and eight are taekwondo. Take a look at one compilation of Chinese athletes and how they’ve fared so far, and you’ll see China has scant medal hopes in track and field (particularly with Liu Xiang’s unfortunate injury). They’re going to get less than my projected four medals in boxing. (The USA has already matched my boxing projection of two.) They have five wrestlers in 11 events. They’ll get three at most in canoe/kayak sprint. No country can have more than four in taekwondo; China has three.

So while the USA is well on its way to breaking 100, China would practically have to win out to get there.

* – Yes, I’m using total numbers for this. I could do a second analysis just for gold medals to appease the pedantic folks who insist that medal counts should be ranked by gold, but I don’t see much point. China might stay atop the gold-medal count if the U.S. track and field squad comes up with a whole bunch of silver.

15
olympic sports

Olympic Daily Glance, Day 11 — Time for a USA comeback

Posted on by Beau Dure

Tuesday at the Olympic Games: People going in circles.

WHAT HAPPENED MONDAY

Did you see that women’s soccer game? Maybe the most compelling ever. And after last year’s World Cup, that’s saying something.

The U.S. men’s hoops team broke open a close game and shrugged off a groin punch to rout Argentina. The U.S. men’s volleyball team swept Tunisia.

Other than that, it wasn’t a good day for the USA. The field hockey team went out with a 7-0 loss to previously winless South Africa. Hungary handed the water polo men a second straight trouncing. The wrestlers came up empty. The remaining men’s pair crashed out in beach volleyball.

The U.S. only came up with three medals, though each one is worth celebrating in its own way. Jenn Suhr finally got her long-awaited pole vault gold after a silver in Beijing and frustration in world championships. Michael Tinsley was a surprise silver medalist in the men’s 400 hurdles. And Matt Emmons, who twice had bizarre mishaps on his last shot in the Olympic 50-meter 3-position rifle, had another last-shot slipup but limited the damage this time, slipping only from silver to bronze. Add that to his medals in 50-meter prone from 2004 and 2008, and he has a clean sweep of gold, silver and bronze.

The stunner was Felix Sanchez, the New Yorker running for the Dominican Republic, who turned back to clock to his heyday of the early 2000s to win the 400-meter hurdles. He then pulled a picture of his late grandmother, which he somehow had been carrying in those skin-tight uniforms the tracksters wear, laid it down on the track and kissed it.

MEDAL PROJECTION UPDATE

NOW I’m overprojecting the USA. The medals they missed: men’s 400 (2), women’s shot put, equestrian team jumping, women’s uneven bars, women’s Laser radial. Ouch.

Australia at least whittled away their deficit. Pretty soon we may ask some questions of Germany.

Underprojected: 6 for China. 4 – South Korea, Denmark, Cuba, North Korea, Mexico, South Africa. 3- France, Sweden, Colombia.

Overprojected: Australia 9, Germany 7, Turkey 6, Britain 6, New Zealand 5, Brazil 4, USA 4, Italy 3.

Right on course: Netherlands (10 medals), Hungary (8), Jamaica (4), India (3), Croatia (3).

TUESDAY’S VIEWING RECOMMENDATIONS

Times ET. Everything’s available online. NBC, MSNBC and NBC Sports Network may occasionally hop around to other events. Names are U.S. athletes unless otherwise mentioned.

And my life has changed since finding NBC’s online Gold Zone, which hops around from event to event. 

4-6 a.m.:

  • 4:00, NBC SN: Field hockey, men’s hockey, South Korea vs. Netherlands.
  • 4:30: Canoe/kayak, sprint qualifications
  • 5:00: Track and field, first hour of heats/qualifiers – women’s javelin, men’s 110 hurdles, men’s triple jump, women’s 5,000
  • 5:00: Diving, men’s springboard, semifinal
  • 5:00: Equestrian, dressage, team final. Picks: NED-GER-GBR
  • 5:07, NBC SN: Canoe/kayak, women’s 500 K1 heats. Carrie Johnson.
  • 5:19: Cycling, women’s omnium, individual pursuit. Sarah Hammer is tied for first after first day. This race will run between several early rounds of the men’s Keirin.

6 a.m.:

  • 6:30, NBC SN: Triathlon, men’s. Hunter Kemper, Krispy Kreme fan, is back for more. Triathlon, that is — not donuts. Picks: GBR-RUS-GBR
  • 6:30: Canoe/kayak, women’s 500 K1 semis. Carrie Johnson.
  • 6:50: Track and field, men’s 200 heats. Thinking NBC might break in to show Bolt, who’s conveniently in the first heat.

8 a.m.:

  • 8:00: Sailing, men’s windsurfer, medal race. Picks: NZL-POL-FRA
  • 8:18: Wrestling, men’s 66kg Greco-Roman, round of 16. Justin Lester.
  • 8:54: Wrestling, men’s 66kg Greco-Roman, quarterfinals.

9 a.m.: MSNBC signs on with Japan-China volleyball

  • 9:00, NBC SN: Basketball, women’s quarterfinals. USA-Canada.
  • 9:00: Sailing, women’s windsurfer, medal race. Picks: ISR-POL-GBR
  • 9:00: Gymnastics, men’s parallel bars. Picks: USA-CHN-JPN
  • 9:47: Gymnastics, women’s beam. Gabby Douglas, Aly Raisman. Picks: CHN-USA-ROU
  • 9:48: Wrestling, men’s 66kg/96kg Greco-Roman, semifinals.

10 a.m.:

  • 10:00: Synchronized swimming, duet final. Picks: RUS-CHN-ESP
  • 10:05: Sailing, women’s match racing, quarterfinals. USA vs. Finland
  • 10:30, NBC: Water polo, women’s semifinals. USA vs. Australia
  • 10:30: Table tennis, women’s team final. China vs. Japan. Picks: CHN-SIN-JPN
  • 10:37: Gymnastics, men’s horizontal bar. Danell Leyva, Jonathan Horton. Picks: CHN-CHN-NED

11 a.m.:

  • 11:00: Cycling, women’s sprint semifinals.
  • 11:07: Cycling, women’s omnium, 10k scratch race. Fifth of six events.
  • 11:23: Gymnastics, women’s floor exercise. Jordyn Wieber, Aly Raisman. Picks: RUS-CHN-USA
  • 11:53, NBC?: Cycling, women’s omnium, 500m time trial. Last event. Picks: GBR-USA-CHN

Noon:

  • 12:00, NBC SN: Soccer, men’s semifinals. Mexico-Japan.
  • 12:26, NBC?: Cycling, women’s sprint final. Picks: GBR-AUS-LTU
  • 12:45: Wrestling, men’s 66kg/96kg Greco-Roman, repechage/bronze.
  • 12:57: Cycling, men’s Keirin final. Picks: GBR-GER-FRA

1 p.m.:

  • 1:00: Beach volleyball, women’s semifinals. May-Treanor/Walsh Jennings vs. China.

2 p.m.:

  • 2:00: Track and field, men’s high jump. Picks: RUS-USA-RUS
  • 2:00: Diving, men’s springboard final. Picks: CHN-RUS-CHN
  • 2:00, NBC: Volleyball, women’s quarterfinals. USA-Dominican Republic
  • 2:00: Weightlifting, big guys. Picks: IRI-IRI-UKR
  • 2:03: Wrestling, men’s 66kg Greco-Roman final. Picks: IRI-GEO-KOR-FRA
  • 2:05: Track and field, women’s long jump qualifiers
  • 2:15: Track and field, women’s 100 hurdles semis. Lolo Jones time. Plus Dawn Harper — you know, the defending champion. Lolo’s great, too, though. Final is later.
  • 2:45, NBC SN: Soccer, men’s semifinals. South Korea-Brazil.
  • 2:45: Track and field, men’s discus throw. Picks: GER-POL-LTU
  • 2:48: Wrestling, men’s 96kg Greco-Roman final. Picks: SWE-RUS-BUL-IRI
  • 2:55: Track and field, men’s 800 semifinals

3 p.m.:

  • 3:25: Track and field, women’s 200 semifinals

4 p.m.:

  • 4:00: Track and field, women’s 100 hurdles final. Picks: AUS-USA-JAM
  • 4:00, NBC: Beach volleyball, women’s semifinals. Kessy/Ross vs. Brazil.
  • 4:15: Track and field, men’s 1,500 final. Picks: KEN-KEN-ETH

5 p.m.:

  • 5:00, CNBC: Boxing, men’s welterweight quarterfinals. Errol Spence is the last U.S. hope (thanks, arbitrators!)

Plus women’s handball quarterfinals, men’s hockey group play, table tennis and boxing.

Check the full schedule for time updates and results throughout the day: London2012.com

REMINDERS

Full TV listings: NBCOlympics.com
Full online listings: Also NBCOlympics.com

You know who actually has the best glance of how Americans are faring? Wikipedia.

I’ll be doing this daily during the Games. As a reminder, you’ll also find my work at Bleacher Report, and I’ll be helping Trapit capture the best Olympic news sources. Follow @TrapitSports or all Olympic-related Trapit feeds on Twitter for more.

0
olympic sports, soccer

An instant classic at Old Trafford

Posted on by Beau Dure

I’m just going to state for posterity what should be remembered about today’s Olympic semifinal, in which the U.S. women beat Canada by the odd goal in seven:

  • Christine Sinclair is a brilliant player, and it’s nice to see her finally getting a worthy showcase, even in a loss.
  • Fellow Portland alum Megan Rapinoe should now be alongside Abby Wambach, Hope Solo and Alex Morgan as the stars of the U.S. team. She’s already one of the best crossers of the ball in any level of soccer. Her second goal today was simply superb.
  • Referee Christiana Pedersen wasn’t up to the task. Many of her calls, including the barely precedented delay of game call on Erin McLeod and the subsequent harsh handball call, favored the USA. But she also let far too much go uncalled, including a “Wambach sandwich” on a set piece in which the U.S. target forward was held and clobbered in the head by two different players.
  • The referee should not take away from the performance of the players. The game was a thrill to watch.
  • It’s a pity this game wasn’t the final. Canada deserves a medal. That’s the best game I’ve seen that team play, and it comes on the heels of a sturdy quarterfinal performance.

Classic games usually have their share of messiness and controversy along with the brilliance. This one certainly did. And it’s one in which both teams deserve to be remembered for their efforts.

4
olympic sports

Olympic Daily Glance, Day 10 — I do like Mondays

Posted on by Beau Dure

Monday at the Olympic Games: Big test for the neo-Dream Team. Fencing and tennis are already over. How’d that happen?

WHAT HAPPENED SUNDAY

Usain Bolt happened, that’s what. And Sanya Richards-Ross. And Lin Dan (did I tell you to watch the men’s badminton final?). And Andy Murray, along with Serena and Venus Williams. (Murray also got a silver, incidentally, in mixed doubles.)

Good day for U.S. women’s teams — beach volleyball (both teams) and water polo advanced, and volleyball and basketball won easily. Nothing surprising, but nothing to take for granted.

In wrestling, it was a good day for Armenia.

MEDAL PROJECTION UPDATE

Nailed the men’s 100. Right medalists, wrong order — women’s marathon, men’s steeplechase, women’s triple jump and men’s doubles badminton. And that little hunch I had about Murray over Federer paid off — if Novak Djokovic had won, I’d have swept the men’s singles.

Britain’s good day means that I’m only five off their total count. If you look back at my comparison of medal projections, you’ll see that the Wall Street Journal’s picks are indeed coming closest to fruition. The Infostrada/USA TODAY pick of 88 medals for the USA is looking awfully shaky — just over halfway, the USA has 60 medals with a lot of their best events to come.

The one country throwing everyone off is Australia.

Underprojected: China 5, five tied at 4 (France, Denmark, North Korea, Mexico, South Africa), three tied at 3 (South Korea, Cuba, Colombia)

Overprojected: Australia 10, Turkey 5, Germany 5, Britain 5, New Zealand 4, Brazil 3, Italy 3.

The USA is still running two ahead of my projections, even though I thought I was being overly optimistic.

Most of the countries that have matched my projected total have no medals or maybe one or two. The exception: Japan. Projected 27, earned 27. The only problem — I picked 11 gold. Actual: 2.

(Continued …)

Continue reading →

1
olympic sports

Olympic Daily Glance, Day 9 — Transition day

Posted on by Beau Dure

Sunday at the Olympic Games: Swimming and rowing are done. Gymnastics is back for a couple of days. Track and field is in full swing. We’ll see if the judges are as incompetent with women’s boxing as they are for men’s boxing. And it’s wrestling time.

WHAT HAPPENED SATURDAY

Tons of U.S. medalists. First the gold medalists:

  • Michael Phelps goes out a winner along with medley relay-mates Matt Grevers, Brendan Hansen and Nathan Adrian.
  • World record for Missy Franklin, Rebecca Soni, Dana Vollmer and Allison Schmitt in the women’s medley relay.
  • Serena Williams simply played at a level beyond mere mortals. She and Venus Williams play for women’s double gold on Sunday.
  • Bob and Mike Bryan won men’s doubles in straight sets. Mike still has a shot at mixed doubles bronze.
  • In the 50-meter three-position shooting, Jamie Gray was so far ahead by the last shot she would’ve won with a 7, which she could probably do with her eyes closed. Final shot? 10.8.

The other U.S. medalists and team wins:

  • Galen Rupp hung with the Ethiopian-Kenyan crew and sprinted away for silver behind his training mate, Britain’s Mo Farah.
  • At the velodrome, Sarah Hammer led a big comeback over Australia as the U.S. women rode to silver in the team pursuit.
  • Carmelita Jeter broke up the Jamaican sweep with silver in the women’s 100.
  • On the piste, Courtney Hurley got the sudden-death touch as the U.S. women took bronze in team epee.
  • Will Claye flew to bronze in the long jump.
  • The U.S. men’s rowing four took bronze behind the usual suspects of Britain and Australia.
  • Beach volleyball players off to the quarterfinals: Misty May-Treanor/Kerri Walsh Jennings and Jake Gibb/Sean Rosenthal.
  • The U.S. men’s hoopsters survived a classic game against hot-shooting Lithuania, 99-94.

But U.S. teams suffered three bad losses. The field hockey team is eliminated from medal contention after a 3-2 loss to New Zealand. The men’s volleyball team was cruising past Russia and had match point before collapsing and losing the last three sets. Then the men’s water polo wasn’t in Serbia’s class.

Continue reading →

0
olympic sports

Today’s bit of doping media irresponsibility (Reuters)

Posted on by Beau Dure

It’s pretty clear from reading between the lines that some snarky Reuters reporter wants to get a U.S. swimmer (Katie Ledecky) tied to doping, even if the evidence isn’t there.

Earlier this week, an American coach, not involved with the team or US Swimming, accused China’s Ye Shiwen of doping when she won the 400m individual medley gold medal. Josh Leonard said her rapid improvement, which was less dramatic than Ledecky’s, was a sign she cheated.

I see what you did there. Very clever.

Couldn’t be the fact that in the past year, she’s gone from age 14 to age 15, could it? You’re talking about someone just growing into adulthood. I’m sure her times have dramatically improved in the past FIVE years — you don’t see many 10-year-olds at the Olympics.

If a 28-year-old goes from perennial semifinalist to world record-holder, we’ll talk.

(And yeah, I think Ye gets a bit of a pass for the same reason. Still, if you want to know who’s *more* suspicious, it’s Ye. She’s a little older and is posting ridiculous times. But again — it could just be that she’s hitting a very high peak in her late teens.)

US Olympic champion Katie Ledecky dismisses suggestions of doping | Sport | guardian.co.uk

1
olympic sports

Olympic Daily Glance, Day 8 — Farewell to Phelps

Posted on by Beau Dure

Saturday at the Olympic Games: Barring a change of heart in a couple of years, this will be the last appearance of Michael Phelps in an Olympic pool.

WHAT HAPPENED FRIDAY

Great day for the USA in the pool Missy Franklin got a world record. Katie Ledecky won one for 15-year-olds everywhere. Cullen Jones made it to the podium. And then this Michael Phelps guy won — anyone heard of him?

In the first day on the track, Reese Hoffa got bronze in the shot put.

Some Americans were surprisingly eliminated well short of the medals: Phil Dalhausser/Todd Rogers in beach volleyball, Aretha Thurmond in discus, Raushee Warren in boxing. With Errol Spence losing later in the day, the U.S. boxers were wiped out of the Games. The only question left is which factor you blame more — the USA’s decline in the sport or the farcical judging.

U.S. teams, though, did just fine — a 2-0 women’s soccer win in which New Zealand never really threatened, a women’s volleyball sweep over Serbia and a narrow 7-6 women’s water polo win over China. (Two exceptions: table tennis and men’s saber.)

Britain had some disappointments — they don’t seem content with Rebecca Adlington only taking bronze in the 800 free (Ledecky’s race), and the women’s soccer team is out. But then Andy Murray beat Novak Djokovic to set up a Wimbledon rematch with Roger Federer. The women’s final has the biggest marquee value of just any final you could name — Serena Williams vs. Maria Sharapova.

And South Korea is relieved to have gold in men’s archery.

MEDAL PROJECTION UPDATE

One set of British athletes that is living up to expectations — track cyclists. As always, Britain does well in the events that require sitting. Pretty good day for them in rowing, too.

So Australia, which is having a horrible Olympics so far, has replaced Britain as the Games’ underachiever.

And I underprojected Hong Kong by one. I, of course, projected “none.”  Somewhere in Hong Kong, they have room for a velodrome, I suppose.

Underprojected: China (5), North Korea (4), South Africa (4), 3 each for South Korea, Canada, Cuba, Mexico, Colombia

Overprojected: Australia (9), Britain (6), Turkey (4), Switzerland (3), Brazil (3)

(USA is overprojected by one.)

SATURDAY’S VIEWING RECOMMENDATIONS

Times ET. Everything’s available online. NBC, MSNBC and NBC Sports Network may occasionally hop around to other events — after today, I’m not sure I trust the TV listings at all. Names are U.S. athletes unless otherwise mentioned.

And my life has changed since finding NBC’s online Gold Zone, which hops around from event to event.

Because it’s a weekend and I love you all, I went overboard and added a lot of TV listings for delayed broadcasts. Enjoy.

4:00, NBC SN: Triathlon, women’s. In Hyde Park. One of the coolest things ever, and an event in which I might be underestimating the USA. Picks: GBR-AUS-NZL

5:00: Track and field, qualifying in men’s 100, women’s pole vault, men’s 400 (Oscar “Blade Runner” Pistorius) and women’s steeple, plus two events of heptathlon.

5:30: Fencing, women’s team epee quarterfinals, USA vs. Italy. Semifinals at 7.

5:30: Equestrian, jumping qualification.

6:15: NBC SN has Russia-Spain men’s basketball

6:30: Rowing, finals. B, C and D finals start at 4:30, with Americans in two B finals. The medals are at stake in:

  • 6:30: Men’s four. USA has qualified. GBR-AUS-GRE
  • 6:50: Women’s lightweight double sculls. GRE-GBR-CAN
  • 7:10: Men’s lightweight double sculls. GBR-NZL-ITA
  • 7:30: Women’s single sculls. CZE-BLR-NZL

7:00: MSNBC has Japan-Egypt men’s soccer

7:00: Sailing, seven classes in action until 11.

7:00: Tennis, bronze medal matches (women’s singles, men’s doubles), mixed doubles quarterfinals.

7:45: Shooting, women’s 50m rifle 3 positions final. GER-GER-CHN

8:00: NBC SN has beach volleyball – Spain-Italy women

8:45: MSNBC has Montenegro-Romania men’s water polo

9:00 (app.), NBC: Tennis, women’s final. Serena Williams vs. Maria Sharapova. Picks: USA-RUS-CZE

9:00: MSNBC has 30 minutes on morning track cycling session

9:15: Badminton, gold medal matches

  • 9:15: Women’s singles. Picks: CHN-CHN-GER
  • 10:45: Women’s doubles. Picks: CHN-CHN-JPN

9:30, MSNBC: Basketball, U.S. men vs. Lithuania. Say hi to former Dukie Martynas Pocius.

9:30, NBC SN: Soccer (men’s), quarterfinals. Mexico vs. Senegal.

9:30: Diving, women’s springboard semifinals. USA’s Christina Loukas and Cassidy Krug have made it this far.

10:00: Shooting, women’s trap final. Might see Kim Rhode again. Picks: SVK-ESP-USA

10:26 (NBC picks up at 11): Trampoline, women’s final. Picks: CHN-CAN-CHN 

11:00 (app.), NBC Sports Network at 11:30: Tennis, men’s doubles final. Bryan/Bryan (USA) vs. Llodra/Tsonga (FRA).

  • Time tba: Raymond/Bryan in mixed doubles semis
  • Time tba: Williams/Williams in women’s doubles semis

11:00: Cycling, some early rounds of men’s sprint (USA: Jimmy Watkins) and events in men’s omnium (USA: Bobby Lea), plus women’s team pursuit final, in which USA qualified second behind Britain. Picks: GBR-NZL-AUS

11:15: NBC has 30 minutes on track and field morning session, worth it just to hear the great Ato Boldon.

11:15: MSNBC has one of the badminton finals. 

11:45, NBC: Volleyball, U.S. men vs. Russia

12:00 p.m.: Track and field, men’s 20k race walk. Watch U.S. prodigy Trevor Barron. Picks: ITA-CHN-RUS

12:00, MSNBC: Soccer (men’s), quarterfinals. Brazil vs. Honduras

1:00: Fencing, women’s team epee. Bronze medal at 1, gold medal at 2:15. Picks: ROU-CHN-ITA

1:30: NBC has 30 minutes on track and field morning session, worth it just to hear the great Ato Boldon.

1:45: MSNBC has the other badminton final.

2:00 (NBC AND MSNBC at 4:15): Track and field, semifinals in men’s 400 hurdles and women’s 400, plus these finals:

  • 2:30: Women’s discus. Defending champ Stephanie Brown Trafton is lone American. Picks: CRO-GER-CHN
  • 2:55: Men’s long jump. Two Americans in; defending champ Irving Paladino (Panama) out. Picks: AUS-GBR-RUS
  • 3:35: Women’s heptathlon, final event (800). Britain’s Jessica Ennis leads; USA’s Hyleas Fountain fourth. Picks: GBR-RUS-GER
  • 4:15: Men’s 10,000. Galen Rupp has decent shot for USA. Picks: ETH-KEN-GBR
  • 4:55: Women’s 100. Jeter, Felix, Madison for USA. Picks: USA-JAM-JAM

2:00: NBC has morning’s cycling.

2:00, NBC SN: Field hockey, U.S. women vs. New Zealand. Only the top two advance to the semis, and the Americans have already lost twice. So they need this one.

2:00: Weightlifting, men’s 94kg.

2:30: Swimming, final day

  • 2:30: Women’s 50 free. NED-GER-GBR
  • 2:36: Men’s 1,500 free. CHN-CAN-DEN
  • 3:07: Women’s 4×100 medley. USA-CHN-AUS
  • 3:27: Men’s 4×100 medley. Michael Phelps’ final race. USA-JPN-AUS

2:30: Handball, Iceland men vs. France. Big matchup for my undefeated guys against the defending champion.

2:30, MSNBC: Soccer (men’s), quarterfinals: Britain vs. Korea

2:40, NBC: Water polo, U.S. men vs. Serbia

3:30: NBC SN has morning’s equestrian jumping

3:45: NBC has morning’s rowing

4:00: Beach volleyball,women’s  round of 16: May-Treanor/Walsh Jennings vs. Netherlands.

4:30: NBC SN has morning’s shooting

5:00, NBC: Beach volleyball, men’s round of 16: Gibb/Rosenthal vs. Russia

5:30: MSNBC has morning’s weightlifting

Also non-U.S. games in basketball, beach volleyball, handball and field hockey. And “boxing” on CNBC from 8:30-11:30 and 3:30-6:30. Oddly, Bravo is showing nothing.

Check the full schedule for time updates and results throughout the day: London2012.com

REMINDERS

Full TV listings: NBCOlympics.com
Full online listings: Also NBCOlympics.com

You know who actually has the best glance of how Americans are faring? Wikipedia.

I’ll be doing this daily during the Games. As a reminder, you’ll also find my work at Bleacher Report, and I’ll be helping Trapit capture the best Olympic news sources. Follow @TrapitSports or all Olympic-related Trapit feeds on Twitter for more.

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olympic sports

Olympic Daily Glance, Day 7 — To the track!

Posted on by Beau Dure

Friday at the Olympic Games: Track and field starts!

WHAT HAPPENED THURSDAY

Huge day at the pool. Michael Phelps won his 16th gold and got the last word in his rivalry with Ryan Lochte. Surprising gold medalist: Tyler Clary. Not surprising, but dominating, with a world record: Rebecca Soni.

In gymnastics, Gabby Douglas won the all-around, and I still think Aly Raisman should’ve had bronze.

Then a breakthrough for U.S. Olympians: Kayla Harrison won the nation’s first gold medal in judo.

The U.S. beach volleyball teams kept rolling. U.S. men’s volleyball won a big one against Brazil. The men’s water polo team seemed to get bored but held on to rout Great Britain. U.S. tennis players went 3-2. The U.S. boxers kept losing dubious decisions.

The U.S. men’s basketball team struggled, giving up 73 points to Nigeria. Then they scored … wait … 156? Wow. They’re almost as good as U.S. rowing’s women’s eight, which took its fully expected and fully deserved gold.

MEDAL PROJECTION UPDATE

I picked Britain to have a huge day, and they almost delivered. But they’re not quite doing it in the water. They got one of the projected three rowing medals today. In the pool? Just not there. The good news: The hosts delivered in one of two track cycling races, canoe slalom and shooting, and they came up with a surprise in shooting. Still, they’re eight medals behind projections. Need more surprises like today’s judo silver medalist.

Yet today’s picks were pretty good in general. Women’s team foil? Reversed silver and bronze. Same for women’s 200 breaststroke. Women’s all-around gymnastics? Just missed the bronze pick.  Same for women’s eight rowing. Then I nailed three events — men’s 200 backstroke, men’s 200 individual medley and men’s table tennis.

Underprojected: The new leader, at 4, is North Korea. At 3: China, South Korea, Canada, Mexico, Colombia, South Africa. At 2: USA, Ukraine, Cuba, Indonesia, Denmark

Overprojected: Britain’s up to 8 now. Australia’s close behind at 6. Then it’s Turkey (4), Switzerland (3) and Brazil (3). At 2: Japan, Slovakia, Armenia.

FRIDAY’S VIEWING RECOMMENDATIONS

Times ET. Everything’s available online. NBC, MSNBC and NBC Sports Network may occasionally hop around to other events — after today, I’m not sure I trust the TV listings at all. Names are U.S. athletes unless otherwise mentioned.

And my life has changed since finding NBC’s online Gold Zone, which hops around from event to event.

4:00 a.m.: Badminton, women’s singles semis and mixed doubles bronze medal match

4;00: NBC Sports Network signs on with beach volleyball, round of 16

4:30: Rowing, four finals on the penultimate day of competition from one of the best Olympic venues. All of my medal picks are in the six-boat finals except Greece in men’s pair. Margot Shumway and Sarah Trowbridge (women’s double sculls) are the only Americans in the A finals.

  • Men’s single sculls: NZL-CZE-GBR
  • Men’s quadruple sculls: AUS-CRO-GER
  • Men’s pair: NZL-GRE-ITA
  • Women’s double sculls: GBR-AUS-NZL

5:00: Track and field, morning session. Includes men’s shot put qualification, the first three events of the heptathlon and the first round in women’s triple jump, women’s 100, men’s 400 hurdles, men’s hammer throw, women’s 400 and men’s steeplechase.

5:00: Table tennis, women’s team first round. USA vs. Japan

6:30: Fencing, men’s team saber quarterfinals and semis. USA vs. Russia

7:00, Bravo: Tennis, semifinals in four groups, quarterfinals in mixed doubles. Check the full order of play; I’m going to guess a few times for the rest of the day. They’re running three courts, and the first matches are:

  • Roger Federer vs. Juan Martin del Potro
  • Huber/Raymond vs. Hlavackova/Hradecka
  • Bryan/Bryan vs. Benneteau/Gasquet

7:00, NBC SN: Soccer, women’s quarterfinals. Sweden vs. France. Tightest matchup in the quarters.

7:00: Shooting, men’s 50-meter prone. Picks: BLR-USA-FRA

7:00: Sailing, getting close to the end of the Finn and Star classes, where the USA is all but mathematically eliminated.

8:30: Badminton, men’s singles semis and mixed doubles gold medal match. Mixed doubles picks: CHN-DEN-CHN

9:00: Archery, men’s individual quarterfinals, semifinals and medal matches. Well, we know I got one wrong already. Picks: USA-KOR-UKR

9:00, MSNBC: Gymnastics, men’s trampoline.  Final at 10:26. Picks: CHN-CHN-JPN

9:00, Bravo: Tennis, semifinals, approximate time for:

  • Serena Williams vs. Victoria Azarenka
  • Maria Sharapova vs. Maria Kirilenko

9:28: Judo, women’s 78 kg and men’s heavyweight repechage and medal rounds. Watch for French giant Teddy Riner.

  • Women’s 78: CHN-JPN-RUS-CUB
  • Men’s heavy: FRA-GER-EGY-BRA

9:30, NBC SN: Soccer, quarterfinals. U.S. women vs. New Zealand

9:30: Shooting, men’s 25-meter rapid-fire pistol. Picks: RUS-GER-CHN

10:00, NBC signs on with a delayed showing of the morning track and field

10:30: Weightlifting, women’s 75kg. Picks: KAZ-RUS-BLR

11:00, Bravo: Tennis, approximate time for:

  • Andy Murray vs. Novak Djokovic
  • Raymond/Bryan vs. Dulko/Del Potro (mixed doubles quarterfinal)

11:00: Cycling, men’s team pursuit finals, women’s keirin (all rounds), women’s team pursuit qualifying.

  • Men’s team pursuit: GBR-AUS-NZL
  • Women’s keirin: AUS-RUS-LTU

12:00 p.m., NBC SN: Soccer, women’s quarterfinals. Brazil vs. Japan. Will karma KO the World Cup champs?

12:00, NBC: Beach volleyball, round of 16. Kessy/Ross. Two American duos will be in action Saturday. One hasn’t been scheduled yet, so check the London site.

1:00, Bravo: Tennis, approximate time for Williams/Williams vs. Kirilenko/Petrova

1:00: Fencing, men’s team saber medal rounds. Picks: RUS-ITA-KOR, but don’t rule out the USA.

2:00: Track and field, finals in men’s shot put and women’s 10,000. Also more heptathlon, women’s 100, women’s discus, men’s long jump, men’s 1,500. NBC will pick up at 4:15, in time for women’s 10,000.

  • Men’s shot put: USA-POL-USA
  • Women’s 10,000: ETH-KEN-ETH
2:00: Weightlifting, men’s 85kg. The USA’s Kendrick Farris qualified but is in the B group, which means he’d have to far exceed his lifetime best to medal. Picks: IRI-IRI-BLR

2:30: Swimming, four finals plus women’s 50-meter freestyle semis.

  • 2:30: Women’s 200 back: USA-AUS-RUS
  • 2:38: Men’s 100 fly: USA-POL-USA
  • 2:45: Women’s 800 free: GBR-DEN-USA
  • 3:09: Men’s 50 free: BRA-USA-AUS

2:30, NBC SN: Soccer, women’s quarterfinals. Britain vs. Canada

2:40, NBC: Water polo, pool play. U.S. women vs. China

3:00: Volleyball, pool play. U.S. women vs. Serbia

3:30: Boxing, men’s flyweight round of 16. Raushee Warren. This dude has skills.

4:30: Boxing, men’s welterweight round of 16.  Errol Spence.

5:15, NBC SN: Basketball, U.S. women vs. Czech Republic.

Plus early rounds in diving (women’s 3m springboard), equestrian (dressage), plus more women’s handball and men’s hockey.

Check the full schedule for time updates and results throughout the day: London2012.com

REMINDERS

Full TV listings: NBCOlympics.com
Full online listings: Also NBCOlympics.com

You know who actually has the best glance of how Americans are faring? Wikipedia.

I’ll be doing this daily during the Games. As a reminder, you’ll also find my work at Bleacher Report, and I’ll be helping Trapit capture the best Olympic news sources. Follow @TrapitSports or all Olympic-related Trapit feeds on Twitter for more.

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olympic sports, sports culture

When Olympians deserve better from the rest of us

Posted on by Beau Dure

I don’t mean to pick on Mike Wise here, because this isn’t the first column to take a couple of stray mixed-zone comments and berate an Olympic athlete as if she let down her family, country, boyfriend and dog.

He does take it to new heights, though, in this column.

“Pretty much all my mistakes cost me the bout,” Zagunis said, adding that any bout she ever lost had less to do with the skill, smarts and perseverance of her opponents than it was “my lack of concentration.

“Congrats to them for winning, [but] in my opinion, if I was completely 100 percent on mentally, then I would have been able to win again. It’s happened to me before.”

First, I’d like to see the full context here. Second, she’s basically saying she choked. That doesn’t strike me as arrogant or petulant.

Ready for it to get worse?

That is, no one but fencers care about fencing after the Olympics are over. And nothing is as over as when the Olympics are over.

So while they’re going on, niche athletes need to savor the Games and smile more often for those two weeks, give opponents that beat them credit more often — because they really matter to most of us only every four years.

So take THAT, Miss Not As Composed As Journalist Would Like After Shocking Loss On World’s Biggest Stage. You’re utterly useless the rest of the four years between Olympics, when you’re just off getting an education and winning the occasional world championship.

I sometimes wonder why people would want to be Olympic athletes. You devote your adolescent and young adult years to developing a rarified skill, and then if you’re anything less than perfect when the international broadcast feed clicks on, you’re subject to ridicule from an increasingly snarky media feeding off the perpetual snark of Twitter.

NBA and NFL players usually have one more game to play, and their mistakes are quickly forgotten. A media firestorm passes with time, and the player goes back to being an athlete. But if you screw up on or off the field, piste or pommel horse in that one instant America notices you before preparing for a fantasy football draft, and that window is gone.

Fair? Definitely not, even when the journalists are less explicit in their harrumphing than Wise is here.

We won’t change the armchair-Olympian attitude, though in the new media age, people can fight back:

Yes, that’s fellow fencer Tim Morehouse, who has also responded in more detail:

Mr Wise: Maybe she didn’t respond to defeat to your liking, but she didn’t make excuses, throw her equipment, curse anyone out or do anything but respond as best she could to an emotionally challenging situation.     I have seen far worst displays from athletes and this one certainly didn’t warrant the zeal to which you attacked her in your article.

It is legitimate to criticize athletes for their behavior (yes, even fencers), but your article was a personal attack.

And to the “every four years” point, Morehouse says this:

Fencing is a great sport and Mariel Zagunis is a great champion.  Whether people are writing about it or not over the next 3 years, she’ll be working hard to achieve her goals while conducting herself as a role model and contributing to our society.   She pursues excellence not for the Bob Costas sit down or the Wheaties box, but because she is trying to be the best she can be.    And in the end, that IS the Olympic spirit.

PS Don’t mess with the fencing team.   We have swords.(and twitter)

One more point, possibly self-serving: I’ve always tried, at USA TODAY and elsewhere, to get people to care about Olympic sports in non-Olympic years. And these Games have inspired me to redouble my efforts. That’s why this little blog is going to stick with Olympic programming. (And soccer and MMA, don’t worry about that.) When Zagunis wins another world championship, you’ll read about it.

And if we’re looking for Olympic controversies, shouldn’t we be looking at the boxing judges?

UPDATE: Wise has really gotten into it with some people on Twitter, alternating between gracious smoothing-over …

… and upping the ante on the attacks …

Being a Dukie who interviewed this fencing team in Beijing and had a funny conversation with Becca Ward about skipping the closing ceremony in favor of Duke’s freshman orientation (I told her she wasn’t missing much at the latter, but she insisted), I’m moderately curious about this. Ward went on to a fantastic college fencing career at Duke, in any case.

“She and her mother bully people and have a sense of entitlement” is “something positive”?

This is why people hate journalists.

4
olympic sports

Olympic Daily Glance, Day 6 — Row, row, row your boat …

Posted on by Beau Dure

Thursday at the Olympic Games: The first day of track cycling, the first day of dressage, and a former judo world champion from the USA in action.

WHAT HAPPENED WEDNESDAY

The British gold medal drought ended emphatically. Helen Glover and Heather Stanning raced away from everyone in the women’s pair (rowing) and held on down the stretch. Then Tour de France winner Bradley Wiggins dominated the men’s time trial.

The U.S. star of the day: cyclist Kristin Armstrong. She came back from retirement, pregnancy and a nasty crash a few months ago to defend her title in the women’s time trial. (And for the LAST time, no, she’s not related to Lance.)

Not far behind: divers Troy Dumais and Kristian Ipsen, continuing the USA’s momentum in synchro diving. They took bronze, giving Dumais his first medal in four Olympics.

And there were more stars in the marquee events of swimming and gymnastics. Nathan Adrian ended the USA’s 24-year gold medal drought in the 100-meter free. Rebecca Soni set a world record in a semi. Allison Schmitt ran down Australia in the anchor leg of the 4×200 free relay. On the mat, Danell Leyva made a stirring comeback for bronze.

The other top spots for the USA on a frightfully busy day: U.S. rowers took bronze in women’s quadruple sculls, and most American tennis players cruised, with Venus Williams the lone exception.

The bad news: Khatuna Lorig is the last U.S. hope in archery. Brady Ellison and the others are out, as are three more U.S. boxers. Mariel Zagunis was cruising to her third straight gold but suddenly lost her rhythm in the semifinals and didn’t medal. The U.S. women’s water polo team gave up a late lead and settled for a tie.

And there ain’t no scandal like a badminton scandal ’cause a badminton scandal don’t stop.

MEDAL PROJECTION UPDATE

Nearly went 9-for-9 on rowing medalists, though not in proper order. I also had two events in which I got gold and silver — oddly enough, the USA took a surprise bronze in each one (men’s synchro diving, men’s all-around gymnastics).

So the USA is gaining on China in the “underprojected” category. Remember that if you see any “China beating USA” headlines. The second week is when the USA should pull away, though it’ll depend entirely on track and field.

And North Korea has me baffled. Gee, they’re so forthcoming with information that you figure I would’ve known everything about them. Percentage-wise, excluding countries I had pegged for 0 medals at this point, North Korea is the most underprojected — five medals instead of one. Colombia is next — won three, projected for … um … none. Oops.

Underprojected: China (5), North Korea (4), USA (3), South Korea (3), Canada (3), Colombia (3)

Overprojected: Come on, Britain (6). And Australia (5). Turkey (4), Switzerland (3), Brazil (3)

Check all my work here: full medal projections.

THURSDAY’S VIEWING RECOMMENDATIONS

Times ET. Everything’s available online. NBC, MSNBC and NBC Sports Network may occasionally hop around to other events. Names are U.S. athletes unless otherwise mentioned.

4:00: Archery, women’s round of 16. Khatuna Lorig

4:00 a.m.: NBC Sports Network signs on with men’s basketball, France-Lithuania

4:30: Judo, men’s 100kg early rounds. Kyle Vashkulat at 5:12.

4:30: Rowing, semifinals and finals. The only time we trust is that the women’s eight finals will be at 7:30

  • Men’s double sculls: NZL-GBR-AUS
  • Men’s lightweight four: GBR-AUS-CHN
  • Women’s eight: USA-CAN-GBR

5:19: Judo, women’s 78kg early rounds. Kayla Harrison at 6:15.

5:30: Fencing, women’s team foil quarterfinals. USA vs. South Korea. Semifinals at 7

5:45, NBC SN: Field hockey, U.S. women vs. Australia

6:00: Equestrian, dressage, first day.

6:30, Bravo: Tennis, quarterfinals (first round in mixed doubles). Follow the official site for updated times. Americans and selected others:

  • 6:30: Bryan/Bryan vs. Israel’s Erlich/Ram
  • 7:00: Britain’s Andy Murray vs. Spain’s Nicolas Almagro
  • tba: John Isner vs. Roger Federer
  • tba: Serena Williams vs. Denmark’s Caroline Wozniacki
  • tba: Belgium’s Kim Clijsters vs. Russia’s Maria Sharapova
  • tba: Williams/Williams vs. Italy’s Errani/Vinci
  • tba: Huber/Bryan vs. Germany’s Lisicki/Kas

Bravo signs on at 7 a.m. and carries tennis until 3.

7:00: Sailing, continuing through roughly noon

9:00: Archery, women’s quarterfinals, semis and medal rounds. Picks: IND-KOR-CHN

9:00: Judo, men’s 100kg and women’s 78kg repechage and medal rounds (11 a.m.)

  • Men’s picks: JPN-NED-KAZ-RUS
  • Women’s picks: BRA-JPN-USA-FRA

9:00, MSNBC: Water polo (men’s), Serbia vs. Montenegro. Good Balkan rivalry.

9:30: Table tennis, men’s singles, medal matches. Gold at 10:30. Picks: CHN-CHN-GER

10:00: Shooting, men’s double trap final. Picks: USA-RUS-GBR

10:18, NBC: Canoe/kayak, men’s slalom C2. Picks: SVK-GBR-FRA

10:57: Canoe/kayak, women’s slalom K1. Picks: SVK-AUT-ESP

11:00, (NBC for finals): Cycling (track), three events leading up to women’s and men’s team sprints at 12:59. NBC picks up at 12:45.

  • Women’s picks: GER-GBR-AUS
  • Men’s picks: GBR-GER-FRA

11:30, NBC: Beach volleyball, women’s pool play. Kessy/Ross

11:30: Gymnastics, women’s all-around final. Gabby Douglas and Aly Raisman. Picks: USA-RUS-CHN

12:00: Badminton, men’s singles quarterfinals. Just trust me. Three Chinese stars, including Lin Dan. Malaysian hope Lee Chong Wei. And the European hopeful — Denmark’s Peter Gade.

1:00: Fencing, women’s team foil, medal bouts. Bronze first, gold at 2:15. Picks: ITA-KOR-RUS

1:20, NBC: Water polo, U.S. men vs. Britain

2:30: Swimming, semifinals and finals

  • Women’s 200 breaststroke: USA-RUS-JPN
  • Men’s 200 backstroke: USA-JPN-USA
  • Men’s 200 individual medley: USA-USA-HUN
  • Women’s 100 freestyle: NED-SWE-GBR

3:00, NBC: Volleyball, U.S. men vs. Brazil

4:00: Beach volleyball, men’s pool play. Dalhausser/Rogers

4:00, NBC SN: Boxing, men’s lightweight round of 16. Jose Ramirez. (NBC SN window: 3:30-4:45)

4:15, (second half on MSNBC at 5): Handball, Iceland men vs. Sweden. My guys

4:45: Boxing, men’s middleweight round of 16. Terrell Gausha. Yes, the dude who got the knockout. Not sure whether NBC SN will stick with this long enough to pick up his bout.

5:15, NBC SN: Basketball, men’s group stage. USA vs. Nigeria.

And you might see a bit more badminton, basketball, handball, field hockey and beach volleyball throughout the day.

Check the full schedule for time updates and results throughout the day: London2012.com

REMINDERS

Full TV listings: NBCOlympics.com
Full online listings: Also NBCOlympics.com

You know who actually has the best glance of how Americans are faring? Wikipedia.

I’ll be doing this daily during the Games. As a reminder, you’ll also find my work at Bleacher Report, and I’ll be helping Trapit capture the best Olympic news sources. Follow @TrapitSports or all Olympic-related Trapit feeds on Twitter for more.

2