Month: July 2012

soccer

AmWoSo (W-League, WPSL) Power Rankings and playoff picture: July 16

Posted on by Beau Dure

It’s playoff time, and we’ve already seen some good teams’ seasons end — the W-League’s Atlanta Silverbacks, New Jersey Wildcats and Colorado Rush; the WPSL’s Beach FC and Maryland Capitols.

The WPSL Elite has one more week of the regular season, but the four pro teams are already in the playoffs. The regular-season title may come down to a Sunday showdown between the two teams tied for first — Western New York and Boston — playing in Rochester. But Chicago, three points, back, has a game in hand. Fourth-place New York will finish with three games in seven days after yesterday’s game at Philadelphia was rained out.

1. Pali Blues (13-0-1, W-League Western; Last Week: 1) – roster
Won 1-0 over Seattle in preview of Western playoff. Surprisingly didn’t rest many players — Sarah Huffman, Sasha Andrews and Whitney Engen all played 90.

2. Boston Breakers (10-3-0, WPSL Elite; LW: 3) – roster
Beat Philadelphia 2-0. Reminder: One of their losses (to Western New York) is on a technicality over player registration.

3. Western New York Flash (9-1-3, WPSL Elite; LW: 4) – roster
Routed FC Indiana 5-0 and had a big 2-1 win at Chicago. Turning the corner?

4. Chicago Red Stars (9-3-0, WPSL Elite; LW: 2) – roster
Lost to the surging Western New York Flash.

5. New York Fury (7-3-1, WPSL Elite; LW: 5) – roster
Busy week ahead after Sunday rainout.

6. Seattle Sounders Women (10-3-1, W-League Western; LW: 6) – roster
Won first two games on California swing before dropping decision to Pali.

7. D.C. United Women (11-0-1, W-League Atlantic; LW: 7) – roster
No trouble with Virginia Beach in regular-season finale. They’ll meet again in East semifinals; the Piranhas are the only team to take a point off them this year.

8. New England Mutiny (4-5-3, WPSL Elite; LW: 8) – roster
Injury problems were a factor in draw with Chesapeake that ended faint playoff hopes.

9. Charlotte Lady Eagles (8-1-2, W-League Southeast; LW: 11) – roster
Got early goal and held on to eliminate defending champion Atlanta Silverbacks.

10. Long Island Rough Riders (9-3-0, W-League Northeast; LW: 12) – roster
Strong finish in tough division.

11. Ottawa Fury (10-2-0, W-League Central; LW: 9) – roster
Meaningless game but still puzzling to see them lose finale to Quebec City.

12. Atlanta Silverbacks (8-1-3, W-League Southeast; LW: 10) – roster
Tough to drop them out of the top 12 even if they’re not going to the playoffs. Blame the W-League’s quirky playoff system — if they took the top runner-up in the Eastern Conference, the Silverbacks would be playoff-bound.

Bubbling under: Quebec City Amiral (top seed in W-League Central playoffs), FC Dallas (top seed in WPSL Big Sky South), Salt Lake United (top seed in WPSL Big Sky North; U.S. Women’s Cup semifinalist), New York Athletic Club (top seed from WPSL Northeast Atlantic-Mid), Aztec MA (top seed from WPSL Northeast Atlantic-North), Gulf Coast Texans (top seed from WPSL Southeast)

W-LEAGUE PLAYOFFS
all times Eastern

Eastern (D.C. United Women hosting)
Saturday – semifinals
Long Island vs. Charlotte, 3:30 p.m.
Virginia Beach vs. DCU Women, 6 p.m.
Sunday
Final, 4 p.m.

Central (Quebec City Amiral hosting)
Saturday – semifinals
Hamilton vs. Quebec City, 1 p.m.
Laval vs. Toronto, 4 p.m.
Sunday
Final, 1 p.m.

Western
Final – Sunday (at Cal State Fullerton; doubleheader with USL Pro’s LA Blues vs. Guatemala’s CSD Municipal)
Seattle at Pali Blues, 4 p.m.

Conference winners plus Ottawa advance to final four July 27 and 29 at Ottawa

WPSL

West

* Pacific South (one berth): San Diego SeaLions got it.

* Pacific North (one berth): California Storm took the berth with a 3-1 win over North Bay FC Wave and a 3-3 draw between fellow contenders West Coast Wildkats and Bay Area Breeze.

* Northwest (one berth): Spokane Shine also got everything to line up, beating Emerald City 1-0 Friday, routing Oregon Rush 6-0 and seeing Emerald City draw Issaquah 1-1 in the finale Sunday.

* Big Sky North (one berth): Salt Lake United drew with both Phoenix teams in Phoenix to clinch the berth.

Playoffs (San Diego hosting)
Saturday – semifinals
Spokane vs. San Diego, 8 p.m. ET
Salt Lake vs. California, 10:30 p.m. ET
Sunday
Final, 7 p.m. ET

Midwest

* Big Sky South (three berths): FC Dallas (12-1-0, +52 goal differential) clinched first place ahead of the only club to beat them, Oklahoma Football Club. American Eagles Soccer Club took third ahead of Houston South Select.

* Midwest (no berths): FC Milwaukee Nationals won all five games.

Playoffs
American Eagles at Oklahoma FC, 8;30 p.m. ET Thursday
AE-Oklahoma winner at FC Dallas, Saturday 

Southeast

* Sunshine (four berths): Tampa Bay Hellenic finally shed points, drawing Team Boca Blast 0-0, but clinched first place and home field throughout the divisional playoffs. Florida Sol FC took second, followed by Team Boca Blast and South Florida Strikers.

* Southeast (one berth): Gulf Coast Texans scored 31 and conceded 3 in seven games.

Playoffs
tba

Northeast

Playoffs already underway (home teams listed first in results):

First round – Sunday
New England Mutiny Reserves 1-0 FC Bucks
Maryland Capitols FC 0-2 Syracuse Lady Knights

Semifinals – Wednesday
New England at Aztec MA, 7 p.m. ET
Syracuse at New York Athletic Club, 8 p.m. ET

 

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medal projections, olympic sports

2012 medal projection update: Diving

Posted on by Beau Dure

Self-indulgence alert: Two Dukies made the Games — Nick McCrory and Abby Johnston.

For projection purposes, here’s a better piece of news: FINA’s rankings are nicely detailed.

As we said in the initial picks, we could just pick China for every possible medal and move on. But we’ll go into more detail …

MEN

Springboard: Gold medalist He Chong isn’t going anywhere — world titles in 2009 and 2011, first in the rankings. Qin Kai was only fourth at Worlds but is second in the rankings. Russia had two on the World Championship podium — Ilya Zaharov and Evgeny Kuznetsov. U.S. warhorse Troy Dumais placed fifth at Worlds; Chris Colwill is more of a long shot to reach the final but has done it before. Projection was CHN-MEX-USA; now China, Russia, China

Platform: Better medal prospects for the USA here — David Boudia is ranked second and placed second at Worlds. First in both was another Chinese diver, Qiu Bo. Germany’s Sascha Klein finished third at Worlds. The USA’s Nick McCrory was sixth at Worlds, ninth in the rankings. Britain has a couple of hopefuls here, with youngster and 2009 world champ Thomas Daley fourth in the rankings and 2004 Athens medalist Peter Waterfield fifth. Russia’s Victor Minibaev is ranked third. Was CHN-AUS-GBR; now China, USA, Britain

Synchro springboard: FINA ranks by country in the synchronized events, and it’s no surprise who’s first here — China. Then Russia and Mexico, following the World Championship podium. The USA, who’ll pair Dumais with Kristian Ipsen, ranks fifth after a fourth-place finish at Worlds. Was CHN-USA-CAN; now China, Russia, Mexico

Synchro platform: China and Germany were 1-2 at Worlds and 1-2 in the rankings. The USA (Boudia/McCrory) ranks third despite a fifth-place finish at Worlds behind Ukraine and Russia. Mexico ranks fourth. Was CHN-GER-CUB; now China, Germany, USA

WOMEN

Springboard: Wu Minxia took bronze in 2008 and is now No. 1 in Worlds and the rankings. China made it 1-2 with He Zi. After that, third place is wide open — Canada’s Jennifer Abel was third in Worlds, Italy’s Tania Cagnotto ranks third, and the USA’s Christina Loukas is fourth in Worlds and the rankings. Cassidy Krug snagged the second U.S. spot. Was CHN-MEX-CHN; now China, China, USA

Platform: Mexico’s Paola Espinosa won the 2009 world title. She slipped to fourth in 2011, when China restored order with Chen Ruolin and Hu Yadan finishing 1-2. They hold those spots in the rankings, with Canada’s Roseline Filion third. Americans Brittany Viola and Katie Bell are long shots. We’re going to leave the projection intact: China, China, Mexico

Synchro springboard: We’ll have to make at least one change here — Russia didn’t qualify. China is yet again the clear favorite, with World runner-up Canada second in the rankings. Australia finished third at Worlds but is tied for fifth in the rankings with the USA, all behind Italy and Ukraine. Kelci Bryant and Abby Johnston are the U.S. divers. Was CHN-RUS-CAN; now China, Canada, Australia

Synchro platform: The USA didn’t qualify in this one. China is the clear No. 1 and Australia’s the clear No. 2, leaving Canada (ranked third), Germany (third at Worlds) and Great Britain (fourth in each, with home-pool advantage) vying for bronze. Was CHN-CAN-AUS; now China, Australia, Britain

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olympic sports, track and field

Facts that journalists should consider in racism accusations

Posted on by Beau Dure

We have an AP story today about an aboriginal runner, John Steffensen, who claims he’s the victim of racism in Olympic selection. Steffensen is threatening to boycott the Olympics, in which he has a relay spot, because Australia gave an individual spot to Steve Solomon.

Being the good Midnight Oil fan that I am, I tend to sympathize with Australia’s aboriginal population. But track and field is one of those sports that has objective data that lets us evaluate these claims. They’re called “qualifying standards” and “times.”

Here’s what AP has to say about it — “Solomon, who also achieved an Olympic qualifying time.”

And that’s it.

Journalists have to do more than this. Looking up times and qualification criteria is a simple matter. You can even start at Wikipedia to get a general sense of things and then verify the information therein. (Before pedantic folks cry foul at “Wikipedia,” please note the phrase “verify the information therein.” Wikipedia is a good starting point, and it often links to the sources you need.)

So let’s do it.

The men’s standards for the men’s 400 meters are: 45.30 for the A standard, 45.90 for the B standard.

What do the A and B standards mean? Check the IAAF explanation. Basically, countries can enter up to three athletes in each event if they’ve all achieved the A standard. The B standard is basically a backup plan so that countries that don’t have A-standard athletes can still get someone (one!) in the race.

Let’s look at the times for the people in question for the time period in question:

2011: Solomon 45.58, Steffensen 46.10

2012: Solomon 45.52, Steffensen 45.61

So if we’re going strictly on times, which AP didn’t mention in the story, Steffensen has no case. And in his Twitter feed, he doesn’t make much of a case, either. He veers back and forth between claiming racism and then claiming that he’s not claiming racism. (One error: “Anyways the boys pr is my seasons best!!” No, Solomon beat Steffensen’s 2012 best in 2011 AND 2012.)

Let’s check the Australian media.

Now it becomes trickier. It seems Steffensen did indeed beat Solomon in a trial back in March. And then Steffensen suffered a hamstring injury.

Are the trials supposed to be the sole determining factor if you have two or more athletes meeting the B standard but not the A? The federation gave itself some wiggle room here at the top of page 2 in its official nomination criteria (not the separate documents saying “We will have nomination criteria” or “Yes, we really have nomination criteria“), saying athletes can be chosen based on their World Championships performance, their performance at trials or at the “discretion of the Selectors.”

The criteria could be clearer, and Steffensen’s case is at its strongest when he says it’s about transparency. (It’s a little shakier when he says, “Hey, neither of us had the A! Why should either of us run?”) Fellow 400-meter Sean Wroe backs Steffensen based on his win at trials.

But based on available information, which seems more likely?

A. Athletics Australia has issues with aboriginals.

B. Athletics Australia is really impressed with a young phenom who has posted the fastest times by an Australian in each of the past two years.

Perhaps there’s more to the case that Steffensen could make. But maybe journalists should be asking. At the very least, the facts need to be out there.

Steffensen won the trial. Solomon has the faster times. That’s not in dispute. And journalists need to include those facts before racing with the “racism” headline.

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soccer

The W-League and WPSL playoff picture, weekend update

Posted on by Beau Dure

Thanks to the WPSL for a release confirming the playoff situation throughout its many regional divisions. Using that, I’ll update what I ran with the power rankings on Tuesday:

W-LEAGUE

West: Pali Blues, Seattle Sounders Women. This weekend’s game is interesting but meaningless; next week’s game is winner-take-all.

Central: The first-place Ottawa Fury will host the league semis and final, so they get a bye past the divisional rounds. The second-place team gets to host the divisional playoffs, so that race is rather important. The four teams themselves are set.
20 Quebec City Amiral – vs. Rochester (Fri), at Ottawa (Sun)
19 Toronto Lady Lynx – at Hamilton (Sun)
18 Laval Comets – vs. Rochester (Sat)
14 Hamilton FC Rage – vs. Toronto (Sun)

Eastern-Atlantic: D.C. United Women will host the East playoffs. The runner-up also is in the playoffs, and a game that was postponed and rescheduled to Sunday should make the difference:
18 Virginia Beach Piranhas – vs. D.C. (Sat), at Fredericksburg (Sun)
17 Fredericksburg Impact – at Northern Virginia (Sat), vs. Virginia Beach (Sun)

Eastern-Southeast: One game for the playoff spot:
27 Atlanta Silverbacks – at Charlotte (Sat)
26 Charlotte Lady Eagles – vs. Atlanta (Sat)

Eastern-Northeast: North Jersey eliminated New Jersey with a 1-1 draw on Wednesday. The Wildcats have 21 points, but either Long Island or New Jersey will end up with more than 24.
24 Long Island Rough Riders – vs. North Jersey (Sat)
23 North Jersey Valkyries – at Long Island (Sat)

WPSL ELITE

New England’s longshot playoff bid ended with a 3-3 draw to Chesapeake. The four pro teams — Boston, Chicago, Western New York and New York — are in the playoffs.

WPSL

WEST

* Pacific South (one berth): San Diego SeaLions got it.

* Pacific North (one berth): Still a mess heading into final weekend –
15 North Bay FC Wave – at Bay Area (Fri), at Cal Storm (Sat)
15 California Storm – vs. North Bay (Sat), only one game left
13 West Coast Wildkatz  – at Cent Cal (Sat), at Bay Area (Sun)
12 Bay Area Breeze – vs. North Bay (Fri), vs. West Coast (Sun)
12 Central California Heat – vs. West Coast (Sat), at San Francisco (Sun)

* Northwest (one berth): Actually an update from Wednesday night: Issaquah Soccer Club drew 1-1 with Emerald City FC, leaving a messy playoff race.
18 Issaquah – vs. Emerald City (Sun)
14 Emerald City – at Spokane (Fri), at Issaquah (Sun)
14 Spokane Shine – vs. Emerald City (Fri), vs. Oregon Rush (Sat)
Oregon is 0-9-0  (-47 goal difference in nine games).

* Big Sky North (one berth): Salt Lake United (18 pts.), which is also in the Women’s Cup (see below), is a 99% certainty. They’re six ahead of Utah Starzz and would win a head-to-head tiebreaker. For head-to-head purposes, consider these scores from earlier in the season: Salt Lake United 3-1 Phoenix U23, Salt Lake United 11-1 Phoenix Del Sol. Now the curious part — the Phoenix teams from the same club will play each other, with the result worth double.

So here are the teams still mathematically alive:
18 Salt Lake United – at Phoenix Del Sol (Fri), at Phoenix U23 (Sat)
6 Phoenix Del Sol – vs. Salt Lake (Fri), vs. Utah (Sat), vs. U23 (Sun)
6 Phoenix U23 – vs. Utah (Fri), vs. Salt Lake (Sat), vs. Del Sol (Sun)

MIDWEST

* Big Sky South (four berths): We have updates. First thing to know — teams are playing 13-game schedules.
30 FC Dallas – at Fort Worth (Fri), vs. TFC (Sun)
26 Oklahoma Football Club – at Tulsa (Fri), vs. TFC (Sat)
23 American Eagles Soccer Club – vs. Houston Aces (Sat), just one game left
19 Houston South Select – at Tulsa Spirit (Sat), at Arkansas Comets (Sun)
19 Tulsa Spirit – vs. Oklahoma (Fri), vs. Houston South (Sat)

* Midwest (no berths): FC Milwaukee Nationals won all five games.

SOUTHEAST

* Sunshine (four berths): Tampa Bay Hellenic has run the table so far and clinched first place. The battle is just for seeding and home field — the higher seed will host each game of the semis and final.
18 Tampa Bay Hellenic – vs. Boca Blast (Sat), vs. South Florida (Sun)
10 Florida Sol FC – at South Florida (Sat), vs. Boca Blast (Sun)
8 Team Boca Blast – at Tampa Bay (Sat), at Florida Sol (Sun)
5 South Florida Strikers – vs. Florida Sol (Sat), at Tampa Bay (Sun)

* Southeast (one berth): Gulf Coast Texans scored 31 and conceded 3 in seven games.

NORTHEAST

The playoffs start this week. Teams:

* Northeast Atlantic-North (two berths): Aztec MA , New England Mutiny Reserves

* Northeast Atlantic-Mid (two berths): New York Athletic Club (also in Women’s Cup semis), Syracuse Lady Knights

* Northeast Atlantic-South (two berths): Maryland Capitols FC, FC Bucks

Aztec and NYAC get byes and will host semifinals in the middle of next week. The other four play this weekend.

– Syracuse at Maryland, 3 p.m. ET Sunday
– FC Bucks at New England, tba

U.S. WOMEN’S CUP

Incidentally, here’s the U.S. Women’s Cup schedule (clicked on spreadsheet from USASA site – http://www.usasa.com/scripts/runisa.dll?M2:gp::85000 L3/ E 105 315483)

Friday, July 20, 10:30 a.m. CT
– Turbo D’Feeters (TX) vs. Chicago Red Stars, Toyota Park turf field
– New York Athletic Club vs. Salt Lake United, Argo High School turf field

Sunday, July 22, noon CT
– Final, Toyota Park game field

(Toyota Park and Argo High School are about two miles apart in the Chicago suburbs.)

0
basketball, medal projections, olympic sports, soccer

2012 medal projection update: Ball sports

Posted on by Beau Dure

See the original post for projections from 16 months ago; read on for the latest (which may not have changed much):

BASKETBALL

The only major international event played since the last World Championships were the men’s and women’s European tournaments. The top four men: Spain, France, Russia, Macedonia. Women: Russia, Turkey, France, Czech Republic.

FIBA also compiles rankings that reflect all the various zonal tournaments. Top men: USA, Spain, Argentina, Greece, Lithuania, big gap. Top women: USA (by a mile), Australia/Russia (tie), giant gap, Czech Republic, Spain.

Men: The USA and Spain are clearly the front-runners. After that, the picks are more difficult. France has Tony Parker, Boris Diaw and two other NBA-affiliated players, though Joakim Noah is out injured. Great Britain has two players who passed briefly through Duke — Luol Deng and Eric Boateng. But you can’t always judge by the number of NBA or former college players. Lithuania has a lot of Euroleague experience (as well as some players U.S. coach Mike Krzyzewski will know from ACC play), and Russia is built around several players from perennial power CSKA Moscow.

France (ranked 12th) may be underrated, especially when you consider that France qualified for the Olympics ahead of fourth-ranked Greece. Then Nigeria knocked out Greece in the last-chance Olympic tournament, qualifying along with Russia and Lithuania.

Brazil (#13) is certainly underrated. They finished second at the Americas qualifying tournament behind host Argentina (the USA did not participate), and they usually give the USA a tough game. Argentina beat Brazil in the neutral setting of the 2010 Worlds. But on paper, Brazil’s roster is stronger, and the history is solid.

So we’re not changing. USA, Spain, Brazil

Women: A U.S. loss would be a shocker. Australia has three straight silver medals, and the Opals return roughly half of their 2008 squad, including world-class star Lauren Jackson, though several WNBA players have moved on.

Russia was far from unbeatable in the European qualifying tournament last year, barely getting past Slovakia in the opener and losing a group-stage game to Lithuania. Belarus beat them in the next round, and Britain got within three points. They woke up and stomped everyone in the knockout stages, and no one else has given any reason to doubt the rankings, the original projection or the 2008 finish. USA, Australia, Russia

Read on …

Continue reading →

4
medal projections, olympic sports

2012 medal projection update: Badminton

Posted on by Beau Dure

By popular demand, I’m updating the 2012 medal projections, now that the Games are in … two weeks and … yikes, I’d better get moving.

I started by tweaking the only two updates I had made since completing the original projections — athletics (track and field) and archery. That brings us up to one I hadn’t touched in a while — badminton.

Here’s the original post. Onward we go, relying heavily on the current rankings (nicely compiled on one page) and the 2011 World Championships, held in London. Projections are in italic; changes from original projections are in bold italic.

Men’s singles: China’s Lin Dan and Malaysia’s Lee Chong Wei keep passing the top ranking back and forth, with Lin winning an epic final in 2011 to match their 1-2 finish in Beijing. Get the feeling everyone else is battling for third? China’s Chen Long and Chen Jin are next, then the top European, Denmark’s Peter Gade. Chen Jin and Gade split third place in Worlds. Was CHN, MAS, INA; now China, Malaysia, Denmark.

Men’s doubles: Another case of the top ranking being passed between two parties — China’s multiple-time world champions Cai Yun and Fu Haifeng, and South Korea’s Jae-Sung Jung and Yong-Dae Lee.  Another South Korean duo, Sung Hyun Ko and Yeon Seong Yoo, rank fourth behind Denmark’s Mathias Boe and Carsten Mogensen. The USA has an entry here — 2005 world champions Howard Bach and Tony Gunawan. Was KOR, DEN, CHN; now China, South Korea, Denmark.

Women’s singles: The bad news for China — they can only send three players, and the top four in the world are Chinese. The three making the trip are Wang Yihan, Wang Xin and Wang Shixian. (Not enough players named Wang? The U.S. entry is Rena Wang.) Still, a couple of players prevented a sweep at Worlds, where they hand out four medals — Chinese Taipei’s Cheng Shao-chieh took second behind Yihan, and Germany’s Juliane Schenk shared third with Xin. Schenk is still the top-ranked European (sixth), just ahead of Denmark’s Tine Baun (seventh). India’s Saina Nehwal is between the Chinese pair and the Europeans. Was CHN, DEN, CHN; now China, China, Germany.

Women’s doubles: The top two, by a very wide margin, are Chinese: Wang Xiaoli/Yu Yang and Tian Qing/Zhao Yunlei. That’s how they finished at Worlds. Then South Korea’s Jung-Eun Ha and Min-Jung Kim have a bit of a lead for third place — especially because China can only send two teams, so the fourth-ranked team is out. Japan has the next team on the list (Mizuku Fujii/Reika Kakiiwa) as well as a third-place team from Worlds (Miyuki Maeda/Satoko Suetsuna). The other third-place team, India’s Jwala Gutta/Ashwini Ponnappa, is far down the list. Was TPE, CHN, JPN; now China, China, Japan.

Mixed doubles: The top team and world champions are China’s Zhang Nan and Zhao Yunlei. The second-ranked team, by a close margin, is China’s Xu Chen and Ma Jin, but they took third in Worlds behind Britain’s Chris Adcock and Imogen Bankier. The host nation’s hopefuls have tumbled down the rankings, though, with two Danish teams ahead of them in Europe. Joachim Fischer Nielsen and Christinna Pedersen hold third by a slim margin over Indonesia’s Tontowi Ahmad and Liliyana Natsir, who joined Xu/Ma in third at Worlds. Was CHN, DEN, GBR; now China, Denmark, China

3
medal projections, olympic sports

Final tally: USA qualifies for 83.5% of possible Olympic spots

Posted on by Beau Dure

Qualifying for the Olympics is not an easy process. It’s not even easy to read about it. I’m tired, and I didn’t even get on a bike and try to rack up the points I needed to make it in omnium or whatever. (I also don’t live near a velodrome. I’m also old and unathletic.)

But the USA did a pretty good job getting spots in the 2012 Games. Some things are givens — no swimmer is going to make the U.S. team in the pool without beating the Olympic qualifying standard. Others are more difficult.

If you haven’t read the saga of how every single U.S. athlete qualified for the Games, please give it a look.

6