Month: April 2011

soccer

2011 WPS predictions

Posted on by Beau Dure

Jenna Pel was kind enough to invite me to participate in her roundup of WPS predictions, then even kinder to share the shocking results on her blog. Be sure to visit her blog — compiling something like this can be pain, even when the participants are the easygoing members of the unofficial WPS media, and she deserves the rewards.

A couple of things stood out on the results:

– magicJack is picked anywhere from first to sixth. That’s a reflection of this talented but combustible roster wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a mystery, to butcher the great Churchill quote.

– Western New York also is picked first through sixth, but that’s misleading — all but two of the writers pick the Flash in the top three, with Shek Borkowski providing the dissenting opinion and picking them last.

– Atlanta took 10 of 12 last-place votes. Cross-Conference is much more bullish on the Beat, picking the youngsters (with a quartet of U.S. women’s veterans now on various parts of the talent pool fringe) to finish second.

– Perhaps I’ve underrated Philadelphia, which gets six of 12 first-place votes.

– I’m more confident in my championship pick of Western New York, and I’m befuddled that so many picked Boston to win the playoffs but not the regular season. Western New York and magicJack may struggle during the regular season because they’ll have so many players busy with the World Cup. But assuming they make the playoffs, they’ll be terrors. They can put aside World Cup burnout for 2-3 games.

My more detailed picks are:

1. WNY 10-4-4, 34 pts. – Most talented team, just needs to overcome absences
2. MaJa 9-6-3, 30 pts. – Plenty of talent but potential for implosion with big personalities, no staff
3. SkyB 8-8-2, 26 pts. – Gabarra’s rebuilding looks shrewd. Hunch is they’ll be aggressive.
4. Phi 7-9-4, 25 pts. – Attacking options, solid goalkeeping.
5. Bos 6-7-5, 23 pts. – Solid D, Kelly Smith; questions in goal and midfield
6. Atl 4-10-4, 16 pts. – The good news — their toughest stretch is late in the year, when the youngsters might be ready.

Update: Edited headline when readers informed me that it’s not 2012, and this is not one of my London 2012 medal projections. I’m obviously in a hurry to get to the end of the Mayan calendar to see what happens.

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medal projections, olympic sports

2012 diving: Can we just say “China” and move on?

Posted on by Beau Dure

China dominates diving. Period. But we’re going to be thorough in these projections. And if you’re looking for American medals, this is a sport with some potential despite a shutout in Beijing.

In addition to the 2009 World Championships, we have good gauges of form in the 2010 World Cup and World Series.

Men’s springboard: 2008 gold medalist He Chong fought off North American challengers Troy Dumais (USA) and Alexandre Despatie (Canada) to win the 2009 world title.

2008: He Chong (China), Alexandre Despatie (Canada), Qin Kai (China)

Projection: China, Mexico, USA

Top Americans: Dumais just keeps going in search of an elusive Olympic medal, finishing fourth in the 2010 World Series. Chris Colwill has made finals at Olympics and Worlds.

Women’s springboard: 2008 gold medalist Guo Jingjing was so far ahead of the pack at the 2009 Worlds that botching her fourth dive barely made a dent in her lead. Canada’s Emilie Heymans and Italy’s Tania Cagnotto took second and third. But then everything changed in 2010, when Guo retired. Naturally, another Chinese diver emerged to dominate the competition in 2010 — Zi He swept the World Series and World Cup, with Wu Minxia and Mexico’s Paola Espinosa battling for second.

2008: Guo Jingjing (China), Yulia Pakhalina (Russia), Wu Minxia (China)

Projection: China, Mexico, China

Top Americans: Ariel Rittenhouse placed fifth in 2009; Christina Loukas was eighth.

Men’s platform: Somehow, this is one event that eludes the Chinese team. Britain’s Thomas Daley beat China’s Qiu Bo and Zhou Lüxin in the 2009 Worlds, with 2008 gold medalist Matthew Mitcham of Australia a close fourth. Qiu swept the 2010 World Series, but Mitcham beat him in the World Cup.

2008: Matthew Mitcham (Australia), Zhou Lüxin (China), Gleb Galperin (Russia)

Projection: China, Australia, Britain

Top Americans: David Boudia and Thomas Finchem have their moments but are generally better contenders in synchro.

Women’s platform: At last, we have a change-up — a Chinese diver failed to defend an Olympic title at the 2009 Worlds, as Mexico’s Paola Espinosa upset Chen Ruolin and another Chinese diver, Kang Li. Chen and Kang finished 1-2 in the 2010 World Series, and China’s Hu Yadan took the World Cup ahead of Chen and Australia’s Melissa Wu. Espinosa struggled at the World Cup but was third in the World Series.

2008: Chen Ruolin (China), Emilie Heymans (Canada), Wang Xin (China)

Projection: China, China, Mexico

Top Americans: No one stood out in 2010, but someone could surprise out of the solid synchro duo of Haley Ishimatsu and Mary Beth Dunnichay.

Men’s synchronized springboard: A definitive 1-2 at 2008 Worlds — 2008 gold medalist Wang Feng/Qin Kai, followed by Dumais and fellow American Kristian Ipsen. Canada’s Reuben Ross teamed with Despatie for third. Qin went through a couple of different partners in 2010 but kept winning. Dumais/Ipsen beat Ukraine’s 2008 bronze medalists for second in the World Cup.

2008: Wang Feng/Qin Kai (China), Dmitri Sautin/Yuriy Kunakov (Russia), Illya Kvasha/Oleksiy Prygorov (Ukraine)

Projection: China, USA, Canada

Top Americans: Dumais has outlasted several partners in the sport but is still a contender.

Women’s synchronized springboard: Gold medalists Guo Jingjing and Wu Minxia came back a year later at Worlds and posted the top score on all five dives. Italy’s Tania Cagnotto and Francesca Dallape were far ahead of a battle for third contessted by Russia’s 2008 silver medalists, Canada and Australia. With Guo retired, Wu simply teamed up with He Zi to win the overall World Series title and the World Cup. Russia’s Anastasia Pozdniakova and new partner Svetlana Filippova won one World Series event and took second in two other competitions. Canada’s Jennifer Abel went back and forth between Meghan Benfeito and Emilie Heymans, with consistent top-five results.

2008: Guo Jingjing/Wu Minxia (China), Yulia Pakhalina/Anastasia Pozdniakova (Russia), Ditte Kotzian/Heike Fischer (Germany)

Projection: China, Russia, Canada

Top Americans: Kelci Bryant and Ariel Rittenhouse were a solid sixth at 2009 Worlds. They competed with different partners in 2010 as three different U.S. duos took part in the 2010 World Series, each placing third in their respective meets. Kassidy Cook and Cassidy Krug — no, those names aren’t made up — finished fifth in the World Cup.

Men’s synchronized platform: Lin Yue and Huo Liang were in their teens when they won gold in Beijing, and they left everyone else competing for second place in the 2009 Worlds, racking up 10s from a couple of judges not just on their early easy dives but their nasty degree-of-difficulty final dive. Americans David Boudia and Thomas Finchum won a three-way battle for second over a strong Cuban entry and Germany’s 2008 silver medalists. But the Cubans and Germans were the only duos to compete together and post podium finishes in 2010, with China’s new representatives of  Cao Yuan and Zhang Yanquan sweeping everything in sight.

2008: Lin Yue/Huo Liang (China), Patrick Hausding/Sascha Klein (Germany), Gleb Galperin/Dmitriy Dobroskok (Russia)

Projection: China, Germany, Cuba

Top Americans: Boudia, Finchum, Nick McCrory and J.J. Kinzbach competed in different permutations in 2010, with McCrory/Finchem third in a World Series meet and McCrory/Boudia fourth in the World Cup.

Women’s synchronized platform: Tired of reading about Chinese divers defending their gold medals at Worlds? Too bad. Chen and Wang were 22.20 points clear of Australian silver medalists Briony Cole and Melissa Wu after three dives. The only surprise was that Cole and Wu faded to fifth behind duos from the USA, Malaysia and Canada. Naturally, the Chinese team mixed things up slightly in 2010, as Chen teamed with Wang Hao to sweep the World Cup and World Series. Canada’s Roseline Filion and Meaghan Benfeito finished on the podium in all four meets, while Australia’s Melissa Wu had four podium finishes with two different partners. Britain has a couple of contenders, taking fourth in three of the meets with different duos.

2008: Wang Xin/Chen Ruolin (China), Briony Cole/Melissa Wu (Australia), Paola Espinosa/Tatiana Ortiz (Mexico)

Projection: China, Canada, Australia

Top Americans: Mary Beth Dunnichay and Haley Ishimatsu moved up from fourth to second on their final dive at 2009 Worlds, but they dropped to eighth at the 2010 World Cup.

 

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mma

Smack talk from the workforce, TUF-style

Posted on by Beau Dure

Chris Cope gives us the first “Oh, snap!” moment of this season of The Ultimate Fighter, responding to Lew Polley’s accusation that he’s less serious about training because he has a full-time job:

I may be one of the few guys that fights that also has a 40-hour-a-week job, but I’ve trained with and outworked guys that don’t do anything else. I need the balance. I like to be able to work and train. I’m not one of these guys that trains and then says I need a two-hour nap – and half the time those guys are just smoking weed and playing Xbox.

via Team Lesnar blog: Chris Cope on “The Ultimate Fighter 13,” episode No. 2 | MMAjunkie.com.

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mma

The Ultimate Fighter: Season 13, Episode 2: Bigger upset than VCU

Posted on by Beau Dure

In our last episode, the blogosphere panicked because Brock Lesnar was boring. Even worse, Myles Jury was hurt and replaced by Chuck “Cold Stew” O’Neil. Wait, wait — that’s “Cold STEEL.” And Junior Dos Santos put his top pick, Shamar Bailey, against Lesnar’s last pick, Nordin Asrih, with predictable results.

We see the credits for the first time, and they have a new style. I like it. A little less chaotic.

Dos Santos makes his guys run in what appear to be WWI gas masks. He’s thinking Javier Torres (third pick) or Ramsey Nijem (fourth) might go next.

Keon Caldwell, the last draft pick, is “mentally struggling,” we’re told. The coaches push him. Dos Santos tries to encourage him. Keon says he needs to throw up, which the English-impaired Dos Santos doesn’t understand until Keon makes a universal motion for “You don’t want to be standing in front of me right now.”

Lesnar says all the guys here lack wrestling, and that’s what they’re working on. He says you can’t make chicken salad out of chicken (bleep), and you can’t polish turds.

Keon’s daughter is 6. He misses her and says he wants to go home. Seems like it’s been a few seasons since someone wanted to go home. Dana White walks in and says he’s looking for Keon. Uh oh. Ad break.

Dana asks if he really wants to be here. He says yes. If you think that’s not the end of this subplot, you’re right.

Continue reading →

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soccer

Reflections on “The Man Watching” and Anson Dorrance

Posted on by Beau Dure

If the mark of a good biography is something that makes you think about several aspects of life, then The Man Watching is a very good biography.

The subject, North Carolina and former U.S. women’s soccer coach Anson Dorrance, is described as someone you either love or hate. Surely a third camp exists — one that finds Dorrance’s contradictions and complexities fascinating. (If you need personal disclaimers here: I’ve interacted with him once, 21 years ago, and I found him to be a gracious winner.)

Dorrance is a military son who wanted to be a soldier. Today, he’s a women’s soccer coach who corresponds with his players with often-emotional letters, and his daily schedule and desk have no sense of military order whatsover.

Everyone wants to mimic his success, and yet the coaching style that carried him through much of his career is out of vogue now, both in terms of soccer tactics and player management.

He’s a book-devouring intellectual who turns around and competes with an arrogant fervor that would frighten most of the other folks in bookstores and libraries.

His intellectual approach to life made author Tim Crothers’ job a little bit easier. Though Dorrance may come across as arrogant, he’s open to self-examination and reflection. He’s candid about his successes, failures and controversies, something I’ve heard from Carolina colleagues who have covered his team.

Continue reading →

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olympic sports, winter sports

Finally free to jump

Posted on by Beau Dure

At long last, the IOC has approved women’s ski jumping for the Olympic Games.

The longer I covered the fight to get the event in the Games, the more absurd the opposition seemed. The Olympics are supposed to be committed to gender equity. If men compete in the Games and women compete in other competitions, the women also should compete in the Games.

The IOC and others raised faulty comparisons to events that weren’t in the Games, failing to notice that these were separate sports. Agree or disagree with the inclusion of golf or exclusion of karate, but the IOC is within its rights to choose its sports. To let one gender compete when the other is perfectly capable of competing as well is — and always was — sheer nonsense.

In other gender equity news, the IOC approved biathlon’s mixed relay, which should be a terrific event. The other decisions on “team events” seem random — why luge and figure skating, but not Alpine skiing?

Most fans might wish slopestyle, for both snowboarders and freestyle skiers, had made the cut ahead of ski halfpipe. But the IOC has some logic behind that decision. Sochi is already building a halfpipe for snowboarding competition. Slopestyle would require a new course.

Not the case for women’s ski jumping. The facility will be there. The excuses are not. Better late than never.

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olympic sports

Amateur boxers: Are you looking at my headgear?

Posted on by Beau Dure

Emboldened after tipping their toes into the waters of boxing with prize money and without headgear, the AIBA (amateur boxing’s world federation) is thinking about getting rid of headgear in future Olympic competitions:

News | Olympic amateur boxers may ditch headguards post 2012 | Universal Sports

Pros: With knockouts more likely, this system would encourage boxers to throw better punches rather than simple point-scoring taps.

Cons: In this era of concussion concern, does anyone want to encourage a two-week tournament in which a fighter might step into the ring and absorb that many unprotected blows to the head?

I’ve wondered if boxing should switch from human judges to sensors that can record whether boxers landed legitimate punches. Might be difficult for engineers, but it works in fencing. More or less.

Gratuitous South Park clip on headgear follows:

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Uncategorized

Former Duke lacrosse players win a couple, lose many

Posted on by Beau Dure

Being a Duke grad in sports media was quite uncomfortable during the days of the Duke lacrosse saga, in which a stripper wrongly accused three players of rape and the media tore Duke one way, then the other. (I’d say my employer was fairer than most.)

Early on, I had the sense that the accusations were flawed. Brendan Nyhan, the blogger behind the terrific rhetoric-busting blog Spinsanity and then a grad student at Duke, cataloged some of the problems, even as the talking-head media ranted itself silly about the culture at Duke. Didn’t matter that the talking-head media didn’t know a damn thing about Duke.

Of course, neither did KC Johnson, a then-unknown history professor, but he got a good head start delving deeper into the problems with the case. The Chronicle, my proud student paper, did a fine job with it. (Johnson, much to his credit, acknowledges their fairness.) Eventually, the accusations were doubted. Then dismissed. Not just “not guilty,” but “innocent.” Simply put: They did not do it. No one did.

The irony about Johnson’s blog was this: Johnson was exposing the dangers of groupthink, yet simultaneously demonstrating them. He showed that rape accusations that get a lot of play in the media can lead many to a rush to judgment. Absolutely. And then his commenters, a band with various grudges against Duke, urged him to take it further and turn the screws on Duke itself. They weren’t entirely wrong — a group of 88 faculty members, including a classmate and a former professor of mine but no one else I knew, took out an ad that didn’t explicitly say, “Yay, let’s go get the lacrosse players,” but it could’ve been more tactful. (I did show the ad once to a neutral party, who wondered what the fuss was all about.)

Johnson did his best to distance himself from the most extreme elements in his comments. A black accuser against a mostly white team can bring out the worst in a lot of anonymous people, and Johnson rightfully wanted no part of that. But after one howling mob departed Duke, exhausting its tired stereotypes of a rich white school in a poor black state, Johnson had another mob on his blog. (And the comments on any Chronicle story that had anything to do with lacrosse. Or sports. Or nearly anything.) The mob wanted to paint Duke as anti-jock, incompetent, arrogant and so on.

Duke was in an impossible situation. A rogue prosecutor, Mike Nifong, had indicted three lacrosse players on rape charges stemming from a party that made the whole team look awful. Keeping the whole team away from anyone who was about to rush to judgment was an impossible task. Imagine if the lacrosse season had gone forward and the team had been attacked at an away game.

Johnson and company had little sympathy. They kept the pressure on Duke. Even after the three accused players were exonerated and settled out of court with Duke before any accusations could be stated in court, even after everyone justifiably sued Nifong back to the Stone Age, the remaining players and parents sued Duke and Durham for anything and everything. Repeat: These are NOT the players who were accused of rape. (A separate lawsuit by those three against many people in Durham had several counts survive summary judgment this week.)

That led to the unusual sight last spring, when Duke won the NCAA lacrosse title led by a band of seniors who still had an active lawsuit against the school.

After nearly two years, the court has ruled on motions to dismiss. The headline: Motion denied; suits go forward. The details: Not so fast …

Read through the 150-plus pages of the ruling in Carrington v Duke, and you’ll see lot of the phrase “the motion to dismiss is granted.” As far as Duke officials are concerned, most of it is gone. The people you’d typically meet as an undergraduate have little left to face in court other than Count 11, a tricky legal argument over school administrators’ fiduciary responsibilities. It could be an interesting test case.

The rest of it has been tossed aside. And as if the message wasn’t clear, the court included this message:

Having undertaken this comprehensive review of the claims asserted in this case, the Court is compelled to note that while § 1983 cases are often complex and involve multiple Defendants, Plaintiffs in this case have exceeded all reasonable bounds with respect to the length of their Complaint and the breadth of claims and assertions contained therein.

So my alma mater can be somewhat relieved that much of this awful matter can be laid to rest. I’ve actually wondered if Duke could sue Nifong for putting the school in a position in which they were going to get taken to court and defamed in the media no matter what school administrators did, but I’m saying that as a philosopher/journalist/alumnus rather than as a lawyer (which I’m not).

And still, the school loses. If you want to think of Duke as a place that attracts people with entitlement mentalities, the judge’s comments support your case. So will golfer Andrew Giuliani’s since-dismissed lawsuit.

So when it comes to national championships worth celebrating, I’ll stick with the basketball team. And Becca Ward.

(HT: The excellent Sports Law Blog)

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