Category: medal projections

medal projections, olympic sports

2012 judo: No chops allowed

Posted on by Beau Dure

Sorry, Austin Powers fans, there is no such thing as a “judo chop.” Judo is a grappling sport, with throws, takedowns and submissions from chokes or armbars.

So it’s still a viable component of mixed martial arts, and a few athletes have made the leap from Olympic competition to the cage. Karo Parisyan is the long-standing prototype, but we’ve seen some more accomplished judo athletes such as Rick Hawn and Ronda Rousey make the jump more recently.

Whether the MMA boom sparks more spillover interest into judo, as it has in wrestling, is yet to be seen. Maybe it would help if Japan, the traditional home of judo and still its major power, didn’t have an MMA scene in decline.

As in boxing, we have two bronze medalists per event here, though it’s not quite a simple knockout tournament. If you lose to someone who advances far in the bracket, you’re eligible for a repechage bracket. Fight your way through that, and you can fight for one of two bronze medals. The new format in World Championships and 2012: Losing quarterfinalists square off to start the repechage, with winners facing losing semifinalists for bronze. Still doesn’t quite erase the luck of the draw, but it gives athletes a second chance of sorts.

Unlike a lot of sports, judo is truly global. When we say “Asia” is strong, we don’t just mean “China, Japan and the Koreas.” Mongolia and various countries ending in “-stan” are also strong. Europe also has a diverse group of world-class judokas. North Africa has a few contenders, and the Americas manage to break through every once in a while.

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medal projections, olympic sports

2012 gymnastics: China takes show on the road

Posted on by Beau Dure

Some sports (track and field, most forms of skiing) are big in the Olympics and have well-established international competitions through the year. Some sports wallow in obscurity, even at the Games.

Then there’s gymnastics, one of the biggest sports in the Games but one shrouded in mystery the rest of the time. U.S. gymnasts stay busy with domestic events, some of which attract a couple of overseas athletes, but the sport doesn’t have the weekly showdowns of top names that some sports maintain each year. The international federation keeps world rankings, but Chinese and American gymnasts in particular are underrepresented.

Gymnastics does have an annual World Championship, so we have a few results to check. But don’t ask which countries have the best 15-year-olds training in secret, ready to be breakout stars in London.

China is always strong in gymnastics, but repeating their medal haul from Beijing would be quite an accomplishment.

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medal projections, olympic sports

2012 fencing: My name is Inigo Montoya …

Posted on by Beau Dure

Another sport I covered in Beijing, and I can tell you first-hand that the action is a little faster than what you see in The Princess Bride, as marvelous as those sword-fighting scenes were. (Yes, fencers tend to be big fans of Mandy Patinkin’s work in that film.)

We don’t get another World Championship until October, but fencing persists in having even-year championships as well, so we have results from November. Fencing also has a vast array of World Cups and other events that count toward a world ranking, though such rankings often depend on staying active in little events rather than sitting home training for the big ones.

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medal projections, olympic sports

2012 equestrian: Horse is a horse, of course

Posted on by Beau Dure

Equestrian events tend to be the distant cousin at the Olympics. We’re talking “Hong Kong to Beijing” distant. That’s slightly better than 1956, when the equestrian events were held in Stockholm (yes, Sweden) while the other events were in Melbourne (yes, Australia). Quarantine restrictions and other logistical hurdles often get in the way.

Not so in London. Greenwich Park is pretty close to the center of the action. Equestrian fans might know how to comprehend a venue whose distance in miles from the Games’ epicenter is in single digits, not quadruple.

One major distinction between equestrian and other Olympic events: It includes not only two different species (horse, human) but both genders. Women compete against men. Also, the occasional royal family member might be competing.

Over the past two decades, the equestrian community has built up the World Equestrian Games (WEG) into a big event in non-Olympic even years. It includes the world championships in three Olympic disciplines and many more. The Olympic disciplines also have World Cup circuits and updated rankings, all run by FEI.

Individual dressage: Dutch rider Anky van Grunsven is the three-time defending Olympic champion. Can she stay competitive while maintaining a busy coaching and promotional schedule? Her site has much more news about the sport and her other endeavors than her competitions. Fellow Dutch rider Edward Gal — whose horse, Moorlands Totilas (“Toto”), has his own Wikipedia entry — dominated the WEG, followed by Britain’s Laura Bechtolsheimer (on Mistral Hojiris) and the USA’s Steffen Peters (on Ravel). Yet another Dutch rider, Adelinde Cornelissen, is second to Gal in the world rankings. Bechtolsheimer is next, followed by two separate listings (two different horses) for 2008 silver medalist Isabell Werth.

2008: Anky van Grunsven (Netherlands), Isabell Werth (Germany), Heike Kemmer (Germany)

Projection: Netherlands, Germany, Netherlands

Top Americans: Peters was fourth in 2008. Tina Konyot is ranked 19th.

Team dressage: German and Dutch riders are scattered all through the rankings. Britain upset Germany to take second at the WEG and should have home-soil advantage.

2008: Germany, Netherlands, Denmark

Projection: Netherlands, Germany, Britain

Individual jumping: Gold medalist Eric Lamaze has been consistent — bronze at the WEG, second in the April rankings. Silver medalist Rolf-Göran Bengtsson is third in the rankings, led by France’s Kevin Staut. Belgium’s Philippe Le Jeune won the WEG, followed by Saudi Arabia’s Abdullah Al-Sharbatly. Ireland has two riders in the top 10. The World Cup final comes up at the end of the month in Leipzig, Germany.

2008: Eric Lamaze (Canada), Rolf-Göran Bengtsson (Sweden), Beezie Madden (USA)

Projection: Sweden, France, Canada

Top Americans: Mclain Ward is ranked sixth, Madden is 16th, Laura Kraut 19th and Lauren Hough 20th.

Team jumping: The WEG finish: Germany, France, Belgium. Not too surprising, given the current rankings, though the USA is certainly deep enough to be a factor. In 2008, the USA won a jump-off against Canada. Switzerland moved up to bronze after Norway was enmeshed in a doping scandal.

2008: USA, Canada, Switzerland

Projection: Germany, France, USA

Individual eventing: The top three at the WEG: Michael Jung (Germany), William Fox-Pitt (Britain) and Andrew Nicholson (New Zealand). Fox-Pitt leads the rankings ahead of fellow British rider Mary King, followed by Nicholson.

2008: Hinrich Romeike (Germany), Gina Miles (USA), Kristina Cook (Britain)

Projection: Britain, Germany, New Zealand

Top Americans: Plenty in the rankings — Boyd Martin fifth, Phillip Dutton seventh, Karen O’Connor 20th.

Team eventing: Britain has seven of the current top 18 and showed off its depth in winning the WEG. Canada was second, followed by New Zealand. Germany and Australia can call on full four-rider teams from within the top 30 of the rankings.

2008: Germany, Australia, Britain

Projection: Britain, Germany, Australia

 

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medal projections, olympic sports

2012 diving: Can we just say “China” and move on?

Posted on by Beau Dure

China dominates diving. Period. But we’re going to be thorough in these projections. And if you’re looking for American medals, this is a sport with some potential despite a shutout in Beijing.

In addition to the 2009 World Championships, we have good gauges of form in the 2010 World Cup and World Series.

Men’s springboard: 2008 gold medalist He Chong fought off North American challengers Troy Dumais (USA) and Alexandre Despatie (Canada) to win the 2009 world title.

2008: He Chong (China), Alexandre Despatie (Canada), Qin Kai (China)

Projection: China, Mexico, USA

Top Americans: Dumais just keeps going in search of an elusive Olympic medal, finishing fourth in the 2010 World Series. Chris Colwill has made finals at Olympics and Worlds.

Women’s springboard: 2008 gold medalist Guo Jingjing was so far ahead of the pack at the 2009 Worlds that botching her fourth dive barely made a dent in her lead. Canada’s Emilie Heymans and Italy’s Tania Cagnotto took second and third. But then everything changed in 2010, when Guo retired. Naturally, another Chinese diver emerged to dominate the competition in 2010 — Zi He swept the World Series and World Cup, with Wu Minxia and Mexico’s Paola Espinosa battling for second.

2008: Guo Jingjing (China), Yulia Pakhalina (Russia), Wu Minxia (China)

Projection: China, Mexico, China

Top Americans: Ariel Rittenhouse placed fifth in 2009; Christina Loukas was eighth.

Men’s platform: Somehow, this is one event that eludes the Chinese team. Britain’s Thomas Daley beat China’s Qiu Bo and Zhou Lüxin in the 2009 Worlds, with 2008 gold medalist Matthew Mitcham of Australia a close fourth. Qiu swept the 2010 World Series, but Mitcham beat him in the World Cup.

2008: Matthew Mitcham (Australia), Zhou Lüxin (China), Gleb Galperin (Russia)

Projection: China, Australia, Britain

Top Americans: David Boudia and Thomas Finchem have their moments but are generally better contenders in synchro.

Women’s platform: At last, we have a change-up — a Chinese diver failed to defend an Olympic title at the 2009 Worlds, as Mexico’s Paola Espinosa upset Chen Ruolin and another Chinese diver, Kang Li. Chen and Kang finished 1-2 in the 2010 World Series, and China’s Hu Yadan took the World Cup ahead of Chen and Australia’s Melissa Wu. Espinosa struggled at the World Cup but was third in the World Series.

2008: Chen Ruolin (China), Emilie Heymans (Canada), Wang Xin (China)

Projection: China, China, Mexico

Top Americans: No one stood out in 2010, but someone could surprise out of the solid synchro duo of Haley Ishimatsu and Mary Beth Dunnichay.

Men’s synchronized springboard: A definitive 1-2 at 2008 Worlds — 2008 gold medalist Wang Feng/Qin Kai, followed by Dumais and fellow American Kristian Ipsen. Canada’s Reuben Ross teamed with Despatie for third. Qin went through a couple of different partners in 2010 but kept winning. Dumais/Ipsen beat Ukraine’s 2008 bronze medalists for second in the World Cup.

2008: Wang Feng/Qin Kai (China), Dmitri Sautin/Yuriy Kunakov (Russia), Illya Kvasha/Oleksiy Prygorov (Ukraine)

Projection: China, USA, Canada

Top Americans: Dumais has outlasted several partners in the sport but is still a contender.

Women’s synchronized springboard: Gold medalists Guo Jingjing and Wu Minxia came back a year later at Worlds and posted the top score on all five dives. Italy’s Tania Cagnotto and Francesca Dallape were far ahead of a battle for third contessted by Russia’s 2008 silver medalists, Canada and Australia. With Guo retired, Wu simply teamed up with He Zi to win the overall World Series title and the World Cup. Russia’s Anastasia Pozdniakova and new partner Svetlana Filippova won one World Series event and took second in two other competitions. Canada’s Jennifer Abel went back and forth between Meghan Benfeito and Emilie Heymans, with consistent top-five results.

2008: Guo Jingjing/Wu Minxia (China), Yulia Pakhalina/Anastasia Pozdniakova (Russia), Ditte Kotzian/Heike Fischer (Germany)

Projection: China, Russia, Canada

Top Americans: Kelci Bryant and Ariel Rittenhouse were a solid sixth at 2009 Worlds. They competed with different partners in 2010 as three different U.S. duos took part in the 2010 World Series, each placing third in their respective meets. Kassidy Cook and Cassidy Krug — no, those names aren’t made up — finished fifth in the World Cup.

Men’s synchronized platform: Lin Yue and Huo Liang were in their teens when they won gold in Beijing, and they left everyone else competing for second place in the 2009 Worlds, racking up 10s from a couple of judges not just on their early easy dives but their nasty degree-of-difficulty final dive. Americans David Boudia and Thomas Finchum won a three-way battle for second over a strong Cuban entry and Germany’s 2008 silver medalists. But the Cubans and Germans were the only duos to compete together and post podium finishes in 2010, with China’s new representatives of  Cao Yuan and Zhang Yanquan sweeping everything in sight.

2008: Lin Yue/Huo Liang (China), Patrick Hausding/Sascha Klein (Germany), Gleb Galperin/Dmitriy Dobroskok (Russia)

Projection: China, Germany, Cuba

Top Americans: Boudia, Finchum, Nick McCrory and J.J. Kinzbach competed in different permutations in 2010, with McCrory/Finchem third in a World Series meet and McCrory/Boudia fourth in the World Cup.

Women’s synchronized platform: Tired of reading about Chinese divers defending their gold medals at Worlds? Too bad. Chen and Wang were 22.20 points clear of Australian silver medalists Briony Cole and Melissa Wu after three dives. The only surprise was that Cole and Wu faded to fifth behind duos from the USA, Malaysia and Canada. Naturally, the Chinese team mixed things up slightly in 2010, as Chen teamed with Wang Hao to sweep the World Cup and World Series. Canada’s Roseline Filion and Meaghan Benfeito finished on the podium in all four meets, while Australia’s Melissa Wu had four podium finishes with two different partners. Britain has a couple of contenders, taking fourth in three of the meets with different duos.

2008: Wang Xin/Chen Ruolin (China), Briony Cole/Melissa Wu (Australia), Paola Espinosa/Tatiana Ortiz (Mexico)

Projection: China, Canada, Australia

Top Americans: Mary Beth Dunnichay and Haley Ishimatsu moved up from fourth to second on their final dive at 2009 Worlds, but they dropped to eighth at the 2010 World Cup.

 

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cycling, medal projections

2012 cycling: The wheels on the bike go round and round

Posted on by Beau Dure

Cycling should be a relatively straightforward sport, like track. Three things ensure that it’s not:

1. Drafting. Cyclists conserve so much energy riding behind someone else that they’ll do just about anything to avoid being in the lead until the end.

2. Doping. The modern-day scandals are merely a vestige of the old days of cyclists sacrificing themselves by putting anything and everything in their blood streams. It’s ironic and sad that half-witted cultural commentators pronounce mixed martial arts as some civilization-ending return to the days of the mortal gladiatorial combat when the reality is that sports of a few generations ago were far more brutal.

3. Oddities. Also brutal and yet colorfully amusing were the old six-day races, full of all-night pedaling and the occasional serenade. This tradition lives on in track cycling’s complex Madison race.

British athletes fare well in events that involve sitting (cycling, rowing, sailing), so they’ll be looking for a few medals on home roads and tracks.

Predictions are fraught with difficulty. Road cycling is one of those sports in which the Olympics aren’t necessarily the grand prize. The track cycling program has been reshuffled like a poker deck. Mountain bike and BMX racing circuits have their own idiosyncrasies as well.

So here we go …

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medal projections, olympic sports

2012 canoe/kayak: Hail Slovakia and Hungary

Posted on by Beau Dure

This morning, my former full-time employers at USA TODAY unveiled their 2012 medal projections, produced in conjunction with Infostrada. It has considerably more technical resources behind it than my old 2004 Virtual Medal Count.

Please do check it out along with mine. Between the two, you’ll get a good sense of what to expect in 2012. Their projection will be better-produced, but mine will include commentary. And the occasional Cheap Trick video:

Which serves as an appropriate lead-in for the canoe/kayak projections, which are relatively easy because the World Championships are held every year. In 2011, we’ll have flatwater (sprint) championships Aug. 18-21 in Szeged, Hungary, and the slalom championships Sept. 7-11 in Bratislava, Slovakia.

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medal projections, olympic sports

2012 boxing: Welcome, women!

Posted on by Beau Dure

Olympic boxing goes co-ed in 2012, with three women’s weight classes added. To keep the total numbers down, in accordance with the IOC’s present tactic of limiting the Summer Games’ size, they’ve cut one men’s weight class and reduced numbers in other classes so that the total number of boxers will barely change.

Adding women will be a tremendous help for the USA, whose men’s program is in rough shape. The only U.S. medalists from the 2008 Games and 2009 World Championships have gone pro.

So farewell to the featherweight class, though it seems a shame to lose a distinctive name while keeping “light welterweight” and the absurd “light flyweight.”

Then they pick up with lightweight (60), light welterweight (64), welterweight (69), middleweight (75), light heavyweight (81), heavyweight (91) and super heavyweight (big). I’ll convert this into pounds for the projections. One kg=2.2 pounds.

Boxing is one of the many sports with world championships in odd years. Men’s boxing, anyway. The women’s championships are in even years, and they’ll stay there through 2014 despite their inclusion in the Games. Aside from Worlds, fully global competition is sporadic. The best results we can use for now are the 2009 World Championships and the 2010 rankings, though the latter tends to reward fighters who have been active internationally (in other words, not Americans).

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basketball, medal projections, olympic sports, soccer

2012 ball sports: Yay, team! Except you folks with bats

Posted on by Beau Dure

Let’s see … I’ve done projections for archery, athletics, badminton … let’s call up the spreadsheet and see what’s next:

Baseball!

Oh … right.

Baseball and softball are gone from the Olympic program because, as we all know, it’s easier to turn an 18-hole golf course into an Olympic venue than it is to put a fence around a small part of an Olympic green and have baseball and softball games. Or something like that.

That still leaves us with a few team sports: Basketball, field hockey, soccer, handball, volleyball (beach and indoor) and water polo. (We’ll save synchronized swimming for later.)

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medal projections, olympic sports

2012 badminton: Any hope for Europe?

Posted on by Beau Dure

Badminton is one of several Olympic sports that thrives in Asia, gets a smattering of interest in Europe and is mostly invisible elsewhere. In Beijing, the badminton venue flat-out rocked.

OK, so I can’t show you how loud it was. Pretty, though, isn’t it?

The hosts won eight of the 15 medals in this buoyant atmosphere, which was enough to turn a contender into a medalist. The other medals went to South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia. All hotbeds of the sport, all expected to win medals at any competition, anywhere.

But Europe has a few people who can play as well. Denmark has had a handful of Olympic medals, as has 2012 host Britain. Perhaps a friendlier atmosphere in London will help?

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