Category: medal projections

medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

2014 medal projections: Alpine skiing

Posted on by Beau Dure

Updated Jan. 14 and Feb. 4

Lindsey Vonn is hurt. Tina Maze (Slovenia) dominated last year but hasn’t been as strong this year.

Here we go …

DOWNHILL

Men

Gold: Aksel Lund Svindal (Norway)
Silver: Erik Guay (Canada)
Bronze: Dominik Paris (Italy)

Also considered: Patrick Küng (Switzerland), Klaus Kröll (Austria), Bode Miller (USA), Christof Innerhofer (Italy), Adrien Theaux (France). Removed Hannes Reichelt (Austria), diagnosed with back injury just after a big win.

World Cup 2013-14 top 8 (so far): Svindal, Reichelt, Küng, Guay, Theaux, Miller, Johan Clarey (France), Max Franz (Austria)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Svindal, Kroell, Paris, Innerhofer, Reichelt, Guay, Theaux, Georg Streitberger (Austria)

2013 World Championship top 8: Svindal, Paris, David Poisson (France), Kroell, Andreas Romar (Finland), Silvan Zurbriggen (Switzerland), Küng, Didier Defago (Switzerland)

2010 Olympic medalists: Defago, Svindal, Miller

Women

Gold: Maria Hoefl-Riesch (Germany)
Silver: Tina Maze (Slovenia)
Bronze: Tina Weirather (Liechtenstein)

Also considered: Lara Gut (Switzerland), Marianne Kaufmann-Abderhalden (Switzerland), Julia Mancuso (USA)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8 (so far): Hoefl-Riesch, Weirather, Kaufmann-Abderhalden, Anna Fenninger (Austria), Maze, Gut, Elisabeth Goergl (Austria), Elena Fanchini (Italy)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Lindsey Vonn (USA), Maze, Hoefl-Riesch, Stacey Cook (USA), Gut, Weirather, Daniela Merighetti (Italy), Fenninger

2013 World Championship top 8: Marion Rolland (France), Nadia Fanchini (Italy), Hoefl-Riesch, Nadja Kamer (Switzerland), Mancuso, Cook, Maze, Andrea Fischbacher (Austria)

2010 Olympic medalists: Vonn, Mancuso, Goergl

SUPER-G

Men

Gold: Aksel Lund Svindal (Norway)
Silver: Matthias Mayer (Austria)
Bronze: Patrick Küng (Switzerland)

Also considered: Christof Innerhofer (Italy), Ted Ligety (USA), Matteo Marsaglia (Italy), Bode Miller (USA). Removed Hannes Reichelt (Austria), see above.

World Cup 2013-14 top 8 (so far): Svindal, Didier Defago (Switzerland), Küng, Miller, Georg Streitberger (Austria), Otmar Striedinger (Austria), Jan Hudec (Canada), Kjetil Jansrud (Norway)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8 plus tie: Svindal, Marsaglia, Mayer, Werner Heel (Italy), Adrien Theaux (France), Reichelt, Ligety, Kjetil Jansrud (Norway), Joachim Puchner (Austria)

2013 World Championship top 8: Ligety, Gauthier de Tessieres (France), Svindal, Reichelt, Mayer, Alexis Pinturault (France), Innerhofer, Romed Baumann (Austria)

2010 Olympic medalists: Svindal, Miller, Andrew Weibrecht (USA)

Women

Gold: Anna Fenninger (Austria)
Silver: Tina Maze (Slovenia)
Bronze: Lara Gut (Switzerland)

Also considered: Maria Hoefl-Riesch (Germany), Julia Mancuso (USA), Viktoria Rebensburg (Germany)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8 (so far): Gut, Tina Weirather (Liechtenstein), Fenninger, Elizabeth Goergl (Austria), Hoefl-Riesch, Nicole Hosp (Austria), Kajsa Kling (Sweden), Maze

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Maze, Mancuso, Fenninger, Lindsey Vonn (USA), Hoefl-Riesch, Rebensburg, Fabienne Suter (Switzerland), Nicole Schmidhofer (Austria)

2013 World Championship top 8: Maze, Gut, Mancuso, Sofia Goggia (Italy), Suter, Ilka Stuhec (Slovenia), Daniela Merighetti (Italy), Rebensburg

2010 Olympic medalists: Andrea Fischbacher (Austria), Maze, Vonn

GIANT SLALOM

Men

Gold: Ted Ligety (USA)
Silver: Marcel Hirscher (Austria)
Bronze: Alexis Pinturault (France)

Also considered: Manfred Moelgg (Italy), Aksel Lund Svindal (Norway)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8 (so far): Hirscher, Pinturault, Ligety, Thomas Fanara (France), Felix Neureuther (Germany), Leif Kristian Haugen (Norway), Stefan Luitz (Germany), Fritz Dopfer (Germany)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Ligety, Hirscher, Pinturault, Moelgg, Fanara, Neureuther, Svindal, Marcus Sandell (Finland)

2013 World Championship top 8: Ligety, Hirscher, Moelgg, Svindal, Pinturault, Davide Simoncelli (Italy), Dopfer, Philipp Schoerghofer (Austria)

2010 Olympic medalists: Carlo Janka (Switzerland), Kjetil Jansrud (Norway), Svindal

Women

Gold: Jessica Lindell-Vikarby (Sweden)
Silver: Anna Fenninger (Austria)
Bronze: Lara Gut (Switzerland)

Also considered: Maria Hoefl-Riesch (Germany), Tina Maze (Slovenia), Viktoria Rebensburg (Germany), Mikaela Shiffrin (USA), Kathrin Zettel (Austria). Removed Tessa Worley (France), who is injured

World Cup 2013-14 top 8 (so far): Lindell-Vikarby, Maria Pietilae-Holmner (Sweden), Tina Weirather (Liechtenstein), Fenninger, Zettel, Shiffrin, Gut, Anemone Marmottan (France)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Maze, Fenninger, Rebensburg, Worley, Zettel, Hoefl-Riesch, Gut, Lindell-Vikarby

2013 World Championship top 8: Worley, Maze, Fenninger, Zettel, Frida Hansdotter (Sweden), Shiffrin, Gut, Marie-Michele Gagnon (Canada)

2010 Olympic medalists: Rebensburg, Maze, Elisabeth Goergl (Austria)

SLALOM

Men

Gold: Marcel Hirscher (Austria)
Silver: Mario Matt (Austria)
Bronze: Felix Neureuther (Germany)

Also considered: Ivica Kostelic (Croatia), Andre Myhrer (Sweden)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8 (so far): Hirscher, Henrik Kristoffersen (Norway), Neureuther, Mattias Hargin (Sweden), Patrick Thaler (Italy), Matt, Myhrer, Jean-Baptiste Grange (France)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Hirscher, Neureuther, Kostelic, Myhrer, Manfred Moelgg (Germany), Matt, Fritz Dopfer (Germany), Jens Byggmark (Sweden)

2013 World Championship top 8: Hirscher, Neureuther, Matt, Myhrer, Kostelic, Alexis Pinturault (France), Dopfer, Byggmark

2010 Olympic medalists: Giuliano Razzoli (Italy), Kostelic, Myhrer

Women

Gold: Mikaela Shiffrin (USA)
Silver: Marlies Schild (Austria)
Bronze: Frida Hansdotter (Sweden)

Also considered: Tina Maze (Slovenia), Tanja Poutiainen (Finland), Kathrin Zettel (Austria). Removed Veronika Velez Zuzulova (Slovakia), who is injured.

World Cup 2013-14 top 8 (so far): Shiffrin, Hansdotter, Schild, Marie-Michele Gagnon (Canada), Maria Hoefl-Riesch (Germany), Maria Pietilae-Holmner (Sweden), Bernadette Schild (Austria), Nina Loeseth (Norway)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Shiffrin, Maze, Zuzulova, Hansdotter, Poutiainen, Wendy Holdener (Switzerland), Maria Pietilae-Holmner (Sweden), Zettel

2013 World Championship top 8: Shiffrin, Michaela Kirchgasser (Austria), Hansdotter, Poutiainen, Maze, Pietilae-Holmner, Velez Zuzulova, Sarka Zahrobska (Czech Republic)

2010 Olympic medalists: Hoefl-Riesch, M. Schild, Zahrobska

COMBINED

Men

Gold: Alexis Pinturault (France)
Silver: Ted Ligety (USA)
Bronze: Aksel Lund Svindal (Norway)

Also considered: Romed Baumann (Austria), Carlo Janka (Switzerland), Ivica Kostelic (Croatia), Bode Miller (USA)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8 (two events so far): Pinturault and Ligety tie, Thomas Mermillod Blondin (France), Sandro Viletta (Switzerland), Mario Caviezel (Switzerland), Peter Fill (France), Marcel Hirscher (Austria)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8 (limited competition): Kostelic and Pinturault tie, Blondin, Janka, Svindal, Baumann, Andreas Romar (Finland), Benjamin Raich (Austria)

2013 World Championship top 8: Ligety, Kostelic, Baumann, Romar, Villetta, Pinturault, Silvan Zurbriggen (Switzerland), Janka

2010 Olympic medalists: Miller, Kostelic, Zurbriggen

Women

Gold: Tina Maze (Slovenia)
Silver: Nicole Hosp (Austria)
Bronze: Michaela Kirchgasser (Austria)

Also considered: Marie-Michele Gagnon (Canada), Maria Hoefl-Riesch (Germany), Julia Mancuso (USA), Kathrin Zettel (Austria)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8 (1 event so far): Marie-Michele Gagnon (Canada), Michaela Kirchgasser (Austria), Hoefl-Riesch, Hosp, Sara Hector (Sweden), Maze, Ramona Siebenhofer (Austria), Anna Fenninger (Austria)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Maze, Hosp, Kirchgasser, Lara Gut (Switzerland), Gagnon, Mancuso, Elena Curtoni (Italy), Zettel

2013 World Championship top 8: Hoefl-Riesch, Maze, Hosp, Kirchgasser, Zettel, Elisabeth Goergl (Austria), Sofia Goggia (Italy), Mancuso

2010 Olympic medalists: Hoefl-Riesch, Mancuso, Anja Paerson (Sweden; retired)

BIOS

Men

Top five, 2012-13 World Cup overall: Marcel Hirscher (Austria), Aksel Lund Svindal (Norway), Ted Ligety (USA), Felix Neureuther (Germany), Ivica Kostelic (Croatia)

All-around

Kjetil Jansrud (Norway): Leans toward speed events but took 2010 silver in GS. Lots of DNFs in worlds, lots of injuries.

Ivica Kostelic (Croatia): Perhaps a little more of a slalom specialist — silver medalist in 2010 and world champion in 2003. Also won World Cup slalom title in 2011, the same year he won the overall, and has been in the top five for six straight years. But he does have an overall World Cup to his credit and is the most consistent skier in the combined: silver medalist in 2002 and 2010, and again in 2013 worlds. He also took third place in super-G in both the World Cup and World Championship in 2011.

Bode Miller (USA): 2005 and 2008 overall World Cup champion tossed aside disappointing 2006 Olympics with gold (combined), silver (super-G) and bronze (downhill) in 2010, adding to his GS and combined silvers from 2002. He won three medals (giant slalom and combined gold, super-G silver) in 2003 worlds and swept the speed events in 2005. But he’s 36 and trying to rebound from injuries.

Aksel Lund Svindal (Norway): Why isn’t this guy more famous? Two-time overall World Cup champion (2007, 2009), three Olympic medals in 2010 (super-G gold, downhill silver, GS bronze), five world championships (two combined, two downhill, one GS; in 2013: downhill gold and super-G bronze). Won World Cup super-G title in 2006, 2009, 2012, 2013. Also won downhill World Cup title in 2013. Aside from injury year of 2007-08, he has been in the overall World Cup top four for seven of the past eight years. He even dated American Julia Mancuso for several years, and they broke up gracefully. Learn the name, OK?

Alexis Pinturault (France). One of those jack-of-all-trades guys who is therefore most dangerous in combined, an event that demands versatility. Only 22 – this will be his first time at the Olympics. First and second in the two combined races on the 2012-13 World Cup calendar. Third in 2012-13 World Cup GS. Good in slalom, best in GS, solid all-around.

Speed events

Didier Defago (Switzerland): Defending Olympic downhill champion but missed the next season with a knee injury. He’s now 36 years old and has no World Cup podiums since 2011. Eighth in downhill at 2013 worlds.

Erik Guay (Canada): 2011 world downhill champion and 2009-10 World Cup super-G champion. Sixth in 2012-13 World Cup downhill.

Christof Innerhofer (Italy): Had a career week at the 2011 World Championships: super-G gold, combined silver, downhill bronze. Three World Cup downhill wins in 2012-13.

Klaus Kroell (Austria): 33-year-old speed specialist won 2011-12 World Cup season downhill title and finished second in 2012-13, making it four of five years on the podium. Fourth in 2013 worlds (downhill).

Matteo Marsaglia (Italy): Second in 2012-13 World Cup super-G, mostly on the strength of one win and one runner-up finish. Not much else to report.

Matthias Mayer (Austria): Only 23. Third in 2012-13 World Cup super-G. Fifth in 2013 worlds super-G.

Dominik Paris (Italy): Youngest medalist (silver) in 2013 world championship downhill. Third in 2012-13 World Cup downhill.

David Poisson (France): Surprise bronze medalist at 2013 worlds downhill. Seriously. He was 30, and he had never been on a World Cup podium, though he was fourth at Kitzbuhel in 2013.

Hannes Reichelt (Austria): Fourth in World Cup downhill in 2011-12; fifth (one win) in 2012-13. A little more successful in super-G: World Cup champion in 2008, silver in 2011 worlds.

Super-G/giant slalom

Ted Ligety (USA): Dominant in GS: World Cup champion four of the past six years. 2012-13: Won six of eight World Cup GS races, plus a successful defense of his world championship. Also the 2013 super-G world champion, but that was his only super-G podium of the year. Not great in World Cup combined events, but he comes up big in the big events – 2006 Olympic gold and 2013 world championship. The 2010 Games, though, were a washout for him.

Gauthier de Tessieres (France): Exactly one World Cup podium, and that’s in GS. Then 2013 world super-G runner-up.

Giant slalom/slalom

Marcel Hirscher (Austria): He has won the last two overall World Cups while getting nearly all his points in slalom and giant slalom. In 11 World Cup slaloms and “city events” (slalom-ish races) last season, he finished first five times, second five times and third in the other. And he’s the reigning world champion. He’s just fine at GS, winning the 2011-12 season title, but he’s typically chasing Ligety.

Carlo Janka (Switzerland): 2010 GS gold medalist and 2010 overall World Cup champion. Needed heart surgery in 2011 and still finished third in overall World Cup, but he hasn’t returned to that level since.

Manfred Moelgg (Italy): Third in 2013 worlds GS; fourth in 2012-13 World Cup GS. Best season was 2007-08: Fourth overall, first in slalom, third in GS. Three World Championship medals: 2007 slalom silver, 2011 slalom bronze, 2013 GS bronze.

Felix Neureuther (Germany): Finally hit World Cup stride near age 30, with his overall fourth place in 2013 up 13 places from his previous best of 17th. Second in World Cup slalom and world championship slalom, first podium in each. Only finished one of four Olympic races (slalom/GS, 2006/2010), placing eighth in 2010 GS.

Mostly slalom

Mario Matt (Austria): Top 8 in World Cup 11 of the last 14 years. Missed 2010 Games. 2001 (yes, 2001) and 2007 world champion. Fourth in 2011 worlds, bronze in 2013. Once won a World Cup combined race and once took a world championship medal in the same event, but he’s pretty much all slalom these days.

Andre Myhrer (Sweden): 2010 bronze medalist; fourth in World Cup and World Championship in 2013. World Cup slalom champion in 2012.

Giuliano Razzoli (Italy): 2010 gold medalist. Never finished at worlds. Seven World Cup podiums; two wins.

Women

Top five, 2012-13 World Cup overall: Tina Maze (Slovenia, with a record 2,414 points), Maria Hoefl-Riesch (Germany), Anna Menninger (Austria), Julia Mancuso (USA), Mikaela Shiffrin (USA)

The big 3, all-around

Maria Hoefl-Riesch (Germany): Overall World Cup champion in 2011, dethroning old friend Lindsey Vonn after two years as runner-up. Vonn and Tina Maze passed her in 2012, and Maze ran away in 2013. She still had five podium finishes — three downhill, one super-G and a slalom win — and won the World Championship combined. She won two gold medals (slalom, combined) in 2010. Legit accomplishments in all five disciplines.

Tina Maze (Slovenia): Her gradual improvement in the World Cup overall — sixth in 2009, then fourth, third, second and first — makes sense. Racking up 2,414 points, even with Lindsey Vonn absent for much of the season, is unreal. She would have swept all four disciplines if not for those pesky Americans — Vonn held on by one point in downhill, Mikaela Shiffrin took the slalom. She won 11 races (at least one in each discipline) and reached the podium 24 times. She only missed the top five in four races, all early in the season. She has six World Championship medals and two wins. And two Olympic silver medals (super-G, giant slalom) from 2010. All she needs is gold.

Lindsey Vonn (USA): Alternating gruesome crashes and fantastic seasons. Four-time overall World Cup champion, 2008-10 and 2012. Olympic frustration (injury woes in 2006 and 2010) ended in 2010 with downhill gold and super-G bronze. She won both of those events in 2009 worlds and took downhill silver in 2011. In combined, she has been on the podium in 11 of her past 15 World Cup events. She’ll miss the beginning of the World Cup season but should be ready to go in Sochi.

More all-around (super-G/GS)

Anna Fenninger (Austria): Third overall in 2012-13, second in GS, third in super-G. Fifth overall in 2011-12. Combined world champion in 2011; third in GS in 2013.

Elisabeth Goergl (Austria): Top 10 overall five straight years (2007-08 to 2011-12), with season podium finishes in downhill, GS and super-G. Turned it on in Whistler 2010 – bronze in downhill and GS, fifth in super-G, seventh in slalom. Then won 2011 World Championships in downhill and super-G.

Lara Gut (Switzerland): Best season in 2012-13 at age 21: ninth overall, fifth in downhill, sixth in GS. Two World Championships silvers (downhill, combined) at age 17 in 2009. Two fourths in 2011, then second in super-G in 2013. Hasn’t yet raced in Olympics, missing 2010 with injury. Won 2013-14 season opener GS.

Nicole Hosp (Austria): 2006-07 overall World Cup champion, second the next year. Great 2006 Olympics: slalom silver, fourth in GS, fifth combined. Injured in 2010, missed Games. Five World Championship medals, bronze in 2013 combined.

Viktoria Rebensburg (Germany): World Cup giant slalom winner in 2010-11 and 2011-12. Slipped to third in 2012-13 but picked up points elsewhere, many in super-G, to finish sixth overall. GS gold medalist in 2010, but not much success in World Championships.

Speed specialists

Stacey Cook (USA): Breakthrough season in 2012-13, fourth in downhill standings with two podium finishes.

Nadia Fanchini (Italy): Best World Cup year: 2008-09, second in super-G, fifth in downhill. Only one World Cup win, hasn’t been podium since January 2010, when she suffered dual injuries and missed the Olympics. But she’s a classic overachiever at World Championships: 2005 super-G fourth, 2009 downhill bronze and then back in 2013 for downhill silver.

Andrea Fischbacher (Austria): Second in World Cup downhill in 2008-09, bronze in 2009 worlds super-G, then the big one in 2010: gold medalist in downhill and fourth in super-G. No podium finishes since then.

Sofia Goggia (Italy): Had only four World Cup starts, all DNF or failures to qualify in GS, before the 2013 World Championships. Then finished fourth in super-G, seventh in combined at age 20.

Julia Mancuso (USA): Gets plenty of Cup points in GS and slalom, with GS and combined points propelling her to third overall in 2006-07. But she does her best work in speed events — third in super-G and downhill (fifth overall) in 2010-11, then second in super-G (fourth overall) each of the past two seasons. Then she dials it up for big events — a stunning giant slalom gold in the 2006 Olympics, silver in downhill and combined in 2010, plus five World Championship medals (super-G: 2011 silver, 2013 bronze).

Marion Rolland (France): DNF only Olympic race, 2010 downhill. Only two World Cup podiums, on same weekend in March 2012. Stunning World Championship victory in 2013 downhill.

Giant slalom/slalom

Michaela Kirchgasser (Austria): Second in World Cup slalom 2011-12. Second in World Championship slalom 2013.

Tanja Poutiainen (Finland): Slipped from her 2005 peak, when she won the slalom and GS World Cup titles and finished fifth overall. But she finished on the World Cup podium in each event in 2011 and was fifth in slalom in 2013. GS silver medalist in 2006. World Championships: Silver in slalom and GS in 2005, bronze in each event in 2009, fourth in slalom in 2013.

Tessa Worley (France): Essentially a GS specialist: 2013 world champion, 2011 bronze medalist. World Cup: second, third and fourth the last three years. Injured in December 2013; will miss Games.

Kathrin Zettel (Austria): Best World Cup years were 2008-09 (fourth overall, second in GS) and 2009-10 (fifth overall, second in GS and slalom). Solid seventh overall in 2012-13, fifth in GS. Fourth in combined in 2006 and 2010 Olympics. 2009 combined world champion; second in slalom in 2011. Remarkably consistent at worlds: 13 races, seven top-5s, 11 top-10s. Seven podiums in 2012-13: three slalom, three GS, one combined.

Mostly slalom

Frida Hansdotter (Sweden): Fourth in World Cup slalom 2012-13, third in World Championships.

Marlies Schild (Austria): World Cup slalom champ four of five years ending 2011-12. Injured in 2008-09 and 2012-13. Three Olympic medals: combined silver and slalom bronze in 2006, slalom silver in 2010. Five World Championship medals, slalom gold in 2011.

Mikaela Shiffrin (USA): World slalom champion at 17; clinched World Cup slalom title just after 18th birthday. In nine World Cup slaloms last season: Four wins, six podiums. Also picked up some GS points for fifth place overall.

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medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

2014 medal projections: Snowboarding

Posted on by Beau Dure

Updated Dec. 31; overhauled, really. Other updates Jan. 21 and Feb. 3. And again when Shaun White withdrew from slopestyle Feb. 5.

Not the easiest sport to predict, given that the top halfpipe and slopestyle folks often don’t bother with FIS World Cup events or even World Championships. We have to compare across the X Games and other events. Thankfully, the World Snowboard Tour computes something like that.

The parallel events at least have a bit more info available, though I’ve yet to find any real trends in which some people are better at “special slalom” (do they eat Big Macs before they start?) or giant slalom.

Down the pipe we go …

HALFPIPE

Men

Gold: Shaun White (USA)
Silver: Iouri Podladtchikov (Switzerland)
Bronze: Greg Bretz (USA)

Also considered: Danny Davis (USA), Taylor Gold (USA), Ayumu Hirano (Japan), Taku Hiroaka (Japan), Markus Malin (Finland), Peetu Piiroinen (Finland)

2013 World Championships top 8: Podladtchikov, Hiroaka, Malin, Christian Haller (Switzerland), Ryo Aono (Japan), Scott James (Australia), Nathan Johnstone (Australia), Piiroinen

2013-14 World Cup standings: Bretz, Hiroaka, Gold, Hirano, Janne Korpi (Finland), Johann Baisamy (France), Haller, Ben Ferguson (USA)

2013 X Games Aspen: White, Hirano, Malin, Scotty Lago (USA), Bretz, Louie Vito (USA)

2013 X Games Tignes: Vito, Arthur Longo (France), Hiroaka

World Snowboard Tour points list (Dec. 26): White, Podladtchikov, Hirano, Hiroaka, Bretz, Vito, Gold, Lago

2010 Olympic medalists: White, Piiroinen, Lago

Women

Gold: Kelly Clark (USA)
Silver: Torah Bright (Australia)
Bronze: Arielle Gold (USA)

Also considered: Queralt Castellet (Spain), Holly Crawford (Australia), Kaitlyn Farrington (USA), Sophie Rodriguez (France), Hannah Teter (USA)

2013 World Championships top 8: Gold, Crawford, Rodriguez, Farrington, Castellet, Li Shuang (China), Mirabelle Thovex (France), Sun Zhifeng (China)

2013-14 World Cup standings: Clark, Li, Bleiler, Cai Xuetong (China), Rebecca Sinclair (New Zealand), Gold, Rodriguez, Clemence Grimal (France)

2013 X Games Aspen: Clark, Hight, Gold, Bright, Teter, Castellet, Farrington

2013 X Games Tignes: Clark, Hight, Gold

World Snowboard Tour points list (Dec. 26): Clark, Bright, Gold, Bleiler, Rodriguez, Hight, Chloe Kim (USA; too young for Olympics), Liu Jiayu (China)

2010 Olympic medalists: Bright, Teter, Clark

SLOPESTYLE (new Olympic event)

Men

Gold: Mark McMorris (Canada)
Silver: Staale Sandbech (Norway)
Bronze: Max Parrot (Canada)

Also considered: Roope Tonteri (Finland), Sebastien Toutant (Canada). Removed bronze medal pick Torstein Horgmo (Norway), who was injured in practice in Sochi, and silver medal pick Shaun White (USA), who was also mildly injured and dropped out.

2013 World Championships top 8: Tonteri, McMorris, Janne Korpi (Finland), Billy Morgan (Britain), Clemens Schattschneider (Austria), Robby Balharry (Canada), Ryan Stassel (USA), Adrian Krainer (Austria)

2013-14 World Cup standings: Sandbech, Horgmo, White, Emil Andre Ulstetten (Norway), Chas Guldemond (USA), Sven Thorgren (Sweden), Stassel, Brandon Davis (USA)

2013 X Games Aspen: McMorris, Max Parrot (Canada), Seppe Smits (Belgium), Guldemond, White, Peete Piiroinen (Finland)

2013 X Games Tignes: Toutant, McMorris, Piiroinen

World Snowboard Tour points list (Dec. 26): McMorris, Horgmo, Toutant, Sandbech, Parrot, Guldemond, Piiroinen, Thorgren

Ty Walker rides at Worlds. Photo by Oliver Kraus/FIS via USSA
Ty Walker rides at Worlds. Photo by Oliver Kraus/FIS via USSA

Women

Gold: Jamie Anderson (USA)
Silver: Sarko Pancochova (Czech Republic)
Bronze: Spencer O’Brien (Canada)

Also considered: Torah Bright (Australia), Sina Candrian (Switzerland), Silje Norendal (Norway), Enni Rukajarvi (Finland), Ty Walker (USA)

2013 World Championships top 8: O’Brien, Candrian, Bright, Merika Enne (Finland), Walker, Jenny Jones (Britain), Isabel Derungs (Switzerland), Shelly Gotlieb (New Zealand)

2013-14 World Cup standings: Anderson, Pancochova, Cheryl Maas (Netherlands), Derungs, Jones, Rukajarvi, Elena Koenz (Switzerland), Jenna Blasman (Canada)

2013 X Games Aspen: Anderson, Pancochova, O’Brien, Rukajarvi, Candrian, Kjersti Oestgaard Buaas (Norway), Norendal

2013 X Games Tignes: Norendal, Anderson, Buaas

World Snowboard Tour points list (Dec. 26): Anderson, Pancochova, Rukajarvi, Norendal, Derungs, O’Brien, Buass, Walker

SNOWBOARDCROSS

Men

Gold: Alex Pullin (Australia)
Silver: Markus Schairer (Austria)
Bronze: Pierre Vaultier (France)

Also considered: Tony Ramoin (France), Omar Visintin (Italy). Removed Seth Wescott (USA), who didn’t qualify.

2013 World Championships top 8: Pullin, Schairer, Stian Sivertsen (Norway), Vaultier, Andrei Boldykov (Russia), Alessandro Hemmerle (Austria), Nick Baumgartner (USA), Robert Fagan (Canada)

2013-14 World Cup standings: Jarryd Hughes (Australia), Schairer, Konstantin Schad (Germany), Visintin, Kevin Hill (Canada), Alex Deibold (USA), Paul Berg (Norway), Sivertsen

2010 Olympic medalists: Wescott, Mike Robertson (Canada; retired), Tony Ramoin (France)

Women

Gold: Maelle Ricker (Canada)
Silver: Dominique Maltais (Canada)
Bronze: Lindsey Jacobellis (USA)

Also considered: Helene Olafsen (Norway), Chloe Trespeuch (France)

2013 World Championships top 8: Ricker, Maltais, Olafsen, Trespeuch, Michela Moioli (Italy), Raffaella Brutto (Italy), Samkova, Maria Ramberger (Austria)

2013-14 World Cup standings: Maltais, Jacobellis, Olafsen, Samkova, Charlotte Bankes (France), Nelly Moenne Loccoz (France), Zoe Gillings (Britain), Trespeuch

2010 Olympic medalists: Ricker, Deborah Anthonioz (France), Olivia Nobs (Switzerland)

PARALLEL EVENTS

Not many 2013-14 World Cup results yet, so we’re using 2012-13 standings. Abbreviations are PGS for parallel giant slalom and PS for parallel slalom. Parallel slalom is a new Olympic event.

Men’s PGS

Gold: Roland Fischnaller (Italy)
Silver: Andreas Prommegger (Austria)
Bronze: Benjamin Karl (Austria)

Also considered: Zan Kosir (Slovenia), Rok Marguc (Austria), Simon Schoch (Switzerland), Vic Wild (Russia)

2013 World Championships top 8: Karl, Fischnaller, Wild, Kosir, Prommegger, Schoch, Kaspar Fluetsch (Switzerland), Rok Flander (Slovenia)

2012-13 World Cup standings: Prommegger, Fischnaller, Marguc, Ingemar Walder (Austria), Kosir, Lukas Mathies (Austria), Schoch, Sylvain Dufour (France)

2010 Olympic medalists: Jasey-Jay Anderson (Canada), Karl, Mathieu Bozzetto (France; retired)

Men’s PS

Gold: Andreas Prommegger (Austria)
Silver: Roland Fischnaller (Italy)
Bronze: Rok Marguc (Austria)

Also considered: Benjamin Karl (Austria), Zan Kosir (Slovenia), Justin Reiter (USA), Simon Schoch (Switzerland), Vic Wild (Russia)

2013 World Championships top 8: Marguc, Reiter, Fischnaller, Prommegger, Schoch, Karl, Kaspar Fluetsch (Switzerland), Nevin Galmarini (Switzerland)

2012-13 World Cup standings: Fischnaller, Kosir, Aaron March (Italy), Prommegger, Stanislov Detkov (Russia), Reiter, Schoch, Wild

Women’s PGS

Gold: Isabella Laböck (Germany)
Silver: Tomoka Takeuchi (Japan)
Bronze: Marion Kreiner (Austria)

Also considered: Julia Dujmovits (Austria), Ekaterina Ilyukhina (Russia), Amelie Kober (Germany), Patrizia Kummer (Switzerland), Nicolien Sauerbreij (Netherlands), Ekaterina Tudegesheva (Russia)

2013 World Championships top 8: Laböck, Dujmovits, Kober, Engeli, Alena Zavarzina (Russia), Svetlana Boldykova (Russia), Takeuchi (Japan), Kummer

2012-13 World Cup standings: Kreiner, Kummer, Takeuchi, Tudegesheva, Caroline Calve (Canada), Sauerbreij, Anke Karstens (Germany), Claudia Riegler (Austrlia)

2010 Olympic medalists: Sauerbriej, Ilyukhina, Kreiner

Women’s PS

Gold: Ekaterina Tudegesheva (Russia)
Silver: Patrizia Kummer (Switzerland)
Bronze: Hilde-Katrine Engeli (Norway)

Also considered: Caroline Calve (Canada), Isabella Laböck (Germany), Amelie Kober (Germany), Marion Kreiner (Austria)

2013 World Championships top 8: Tudegesheva, Kummer, Kober, Engeli, Kreiner, Laböck, Natalia Soboleva (Russia), Takeuchi

2012-13 World Cup standings: Kummer, Kober, Calve, Kreiner, Tudegesheva, Dujmovits, Svetlana Boldykova (Russia), Laböck

BIOS

Men

Halfpipe and slopestyle

Peetu Piiroinen (Finland): 2010 Oly silver halfpipe. 2013 Worlds eighth halfpipe. 2013 X Games bronze in slopestyle.

Shaun White (USA). Two-time defending champion, six straight X Games Aspen titles … yeah, he’s the favorite in halfpipe. Also has five X Games slopestyle wins. 

Halfpipe

Greg Bretz (USA): Competed in 2010 Olympics at age 19, finishing 12th. Tied with Hiroaka for early World Cup lead in 2013-14.

Ayumu Hirano (Japan): 2013 X Games runner-up at age 14.

Taku Hiroaka (Japan): Competing in World Cup since 2011, when he was 16. Second in 2013 Worlds. Winner at World Cup stop in Sochi.

Iouri Podladtchikov (Switzerland): World halfpipe champion. Fourth in 2010 Olympics. Landed the first-ever Cab double-cork 1440 at X Games Tignes 2013 (then crashed on his next trick). Nicknamed I-Pod.

Markus Malin (Finland): Hat trick of impressive third-place finishes: 2011 Worlds, 2013, Worlds, 2013 X Games.

Scotty Lago (USA): 2010 Olympic bronze medalist, with a couple of X Games medals as well. Left 2010 Games early after controversial party photos popped up. Did not qualify for Games.

Louie Vito (USA): Fifth in 2010 Olympics. Won a couple of X Games Europe (Tignes) competitions and many Dew Tour and Grand Prix stops. Did not qualify for Games.

Slopestyle

Chas Guldemond (USA): Has a World Cup win. Fourth in 2013 X Games.

Max Parrot (Canada): Teen finished second to McMorris at 2013 X Games.

Mark McMorris (Canada): X Games 2012 and 2013 champion (the latter with a record score of 98); 2013 Worlds runner-up. Just turned 20.

Seppe Smits (Belgium): 2011 world champion at age 19. Third in 2013 X Games.

Roope Tonteri (Finland): 2013 world champion in slopestyle and big air.

Snowboardcross

Alex Pullin (Australia): Two-time defending world champion. Also plays in a reggae band. (No, I couldn’t find any video.) Nicknamed “Chumpy.”

Tony Ramoin (France): 2010 bronze medalist. Ninth at 2013 Worlds.

Markus Schairer (Austria): 2009 world champion. Second in 2013 Worlds.

Pierre Vaultier (France): Three-time World Cup champion (2008, 2010, 2012). Fourth in 2013 Worlds.

Omar Visintin (Italy): Third in 2013 World Cup.

Seth Wescott (USA): Two-time defending Olympic champion. Second at 2011 Worlds. Recovering from multiple injuries suffered in a freeriding accident and in some doubt for Sochi.

Parallel events

Roland Fischnaller (Italy): 2013 Worlds PGS runner-up; also third in PS. Third in 2011 Worlds PGS. Disappointing in three Olympics (best finish: 13th). Five World Cup PS wins.

Benjamin Karl (Austria): 2013 world PGS champion; sixth in PS. Swept world titles in 2011. 2010 PGS silver medalist.

Zan Kosir (Slovenia): Sixth in 2010 Oly PGS. Fourth in 2013 Worlds PGS. Early leader in overall parallel events in 2013-14 World Cup.

Rok Marguc (Austria): 2013 PS world champion, finishing medal collection from 2011 (2nd PGS, 3rd PS).

Andreas Prommegger (Austria): 2012 and 2013 World Cup parallel events champion; no worse than fourth in Cup standings since 2008. 2013 Worlds: 4th PS, 5th PGS. Ninth in 2006 and 2010 Games.

Justin Reiter (USA): 2013 PS Worlds runner-up, a stunning result for the 31-year-old with only one World Cup podium. Prepping for the Games while living in his truck.

Simon Schoch (Switzerland): 2006 silver medalist, losing in the final to his older brother, Philipp. 2011 world PS runner-up. 2007 world PS champion. Two podiums at 2003 Worlds: 2nd PGS, 3rd PS. In 2013: 5th PS, 6th PGS.

Vic Wild (Russia): Third in 2013 Worlds PGS. As you can guess from the name, he grew up in the USA but changed his nationality after marriage. Only one World Cup podium.

WOMEN

Halfpipe/slopestyle

Torah Bright (Australia): 2010 Olympic champion and two-time X Games champion in halfpipe. Fourth in Aspen 2013. In slopestyle: third in 2013 World Championships. Possibly competing in halfpipe, slopestyle and snowboardcross? Or boycotting because of safety concerns.

Halfpipe

Gretchen Bleiler (USA): 2006 silver medalist. Four-time X Games winner. Did not compete due to injury rehab at 2013 X Games but reached the podium in first two World Cup events of 2013-14. Did not qualify for Games.

Queralt Castellet (Spain): Frequent X Games invitee. Injured in 2010 Olympics after good qualifying runs. Fifth in 2013 Worlds.

Kelly Clark (USA): 2002 gold medalist also has 2010 bronze and the last three X Games Aspen wins.

Holly Crawford (Australia): 2011 world champion; runner-up in 2009 and 2013. Eighth in 2010 Olympics.

Arielle Gold (USA): World champion at age 16. Third in 2013 X Games.

Elena Hight (USA): Two-time Olympian is still in early 20s. X Games runner-up 2012 and 2013. Did not qualify for Games.

Sophie Rodriguez (France): Fifth in 2010 Olympics. Third in 2013 Worlds.

Hannah Teter (USA): 2006 gold medalist, 2010 silver medalist. Third in 2012 X Games; fifth in 2013. Active in humanitarian work.

Slopestyle

Jamie Anderson (USA): Four-time X Games winner; seven X Games podiums in eight years. Solid favorite.

Sina Candrian (Switzerland): 2013 Worlds runner-up. Fifth at 2013 X Games.

Spencer O’Brien (Canada): World champion. Third at 2013 X Games, her third X Games poidum.

Sarko Pancochova (Czech Republic): 2013 X Games runner-up; 2011 Worlds runner-up. Competed in 2010 Olympic halfpipe.

Enni Rukajarvi (Finland): 2011 world and X Games champion. 2012 X Games runner-up; fourth in 2013.

Ty Walker (USA): Fifth in 2013 Worlds at age 15.

Snowboardcross

Lindsey Jacobellis (USA): Three-time world champion (2005, 2007, 2011); seven-time X Games champion. 2006 silver medalist. Yes, she fell on the board grab, blah blah blah. Still the sport’s all-time best, winning 26 of the 48 World Cup events in her career through December, when she capped her comeback from a knee injury with yet another win.

Dominique Maltais (Canada): 2012 X Games winner, 2013 Worlds runner-up. 2006 bronze medalist. Four-time World Cup champion, including 2011-2013.

Helene Olafsen (Norway): Fourth in 2010 Olympics. 2009 world champion. Third in first two races of 2013-14.

Maelle Ricker (Canada): Defending Olympic and world champion. Also took a couple of X Games wins when the X Games still considered snowboardcross (or “Snowboarder X”) worthwhile.

Eva Samkova (Czech Republic): 2013 world junior champion has a couple of World Cup wins as well, including one in December 2013.

Chloe Trespeuch (France): 2013 world junior runner-up; fourth in 2013 World Championships.

Parallel events

Caroline Calve (Canada): Getting better in her mid-30s. First World Cup win was in 2011; third was in December 2013.

Julia Dujmovits (Austria): 2013 Worlds PGS runner-up; 10th in PS. Two World Cup wins; 11 podiums (through December 2013).

Hilde-Katrine Engeli (Norway): Fourth in both 2013 Worlds events. 2011 PS world champion. Got first World Cup win in March 2013.

Ekaterina Ilyukhina (Russia): 2010 Oly PGS silver medalist. World Championship best: 11th. World Cup best: 3rd.

Isabella Laböck (Germany): 2013 world PGS champion; sixth in PS. Five World Cup podiums. Police officer spurred on by memory of her late brother.

Amelie Kober (Germany): 2006 Oly PGS silver medalist. 2010 Oly PGS quarterfinalist while pregnant. Third in 2013 Worlds in both parallel events. Twelve World Cup wins, seven in PGS.

Marion Kreiner (Austria): 2010 Oly PGS bronze medalist. 2009 world PGS champion. 2007 world PS runner-up. Also works as a graphic designer.

Patrizia Kummer (Switzerland): 2013 Worlds PS runner-up. Third in 2009 Worlds PGS. Eight World Cup wins. 2012 and 2013 World Cup overall parallel events champion; early leader in 2014.

Nicolien Sauerbreij (Netherlands): 2010 Oly PGS gold medalist. 2011 world PS runner-up. Three-time Olympian — flag-bearer for Netherlands in 2002 opening ceremony.

Ekaterina Tudegesheva (Russia): 2013 world PS champion. 2007 world PGS champion. Fifth in 2006 Oly PGS; 10th in 2010. World Cup parallel events champion in 2011.

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medal projections, olympic sports

2016 medal projections: Men’s handball

Posted on by Beau Dure

Never too soon, right?

Spain was the runaway winner in the just-concluded World Championship, beating Denmark 35-19 in the final. They lost a group-stage game to eventual third-place finisher Croatia but otherwise won with ease.

Two reasons not to anoint Spain as the 2016 favorites just yet:

1.  Spain hosted the tournament, a big advantage.

2. The tournament, Team Handball News reports, didn’t find teams at their sharpest. Some are rebuilding, some may have tournament fatigue.

That said, Spain is no stranger to the podium and usually makes the knockout rounds at least.

Our likely contenders are:

– Spain: World champion, 2012 Olympic quarterfinalist (lost 23-22 to eventual champion France).

– France: Won nearly everything from 2008-2012 (2 Olympics, 2 Worlds, 1 European), then fell flat in Spain.

– Denmark: 2012 European champions, runners-up in 2011 and 2013 Worlds. Lost to Sweden in 2012 quarterfinals.

– Croatia: 1996 and 2004 Olympic champions. Third place in 2012 Oly and 2013 Worlds.

– Germany: Young team won 2013 group, ran into Spain in quarterfinals. Has the top-ranked domestic league (No. 2 is Spain.)

– Hungary: Ouch. Fourth place in the Olympics five times, with no medal. That includes 2012. Quarterfinalist in 2013.

– Slovenia: 2013 surprise — group winner and semifinalist.

– Russia: The Soviet Union was a handball power, and Russia has had some moments since the split. Not recently.

– Iceland: 2008 silver medalists won 2012 Oly group but fell in overtime to Hungary in quarterfinals. Not a factor in 2013, losing in round of 16.

– Sweden: Semifinalists at home in 2011. Runner-up in 2012 Oly. Failed to qualify for 2013 Worlds.

– Tunisia: Well, not really a contender, but if you want a non-European team, this might be your only choice. European teams tend not to lose to non-Europeans. Great Britain, which doesn’t do much in handball but got in as host in 2012, was one exception. Another was Montenegro, which upset Sweden to reach the 2013 Worlds but then lost all five games, including matchups with Brazil and Argentina. Tunisia won three games in 2013, including one over Germany, but also lost to Brazil.

The IHF theoretically has rankings, but they don’t seem to have been updated in a couple of years.

Projection time:

2012 projection: Denmark, France, Spain

2012 actual: France, Sweden, Croatia

2013 Worlds: Spain, Denmark, Croatia

2016 projection: Denmark, Germany, Spain

 

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medal projections, olympic sports

2012 medal projection redux: What we learned

Posted on by Beau Dure

Update: This is now adjusted to reflect our first doping case: Belarus loses gold, New Zealand up to gold, Russia up to silver, China up to bronze. That’s one more medal for China.

When we started, I said I thought the Wall Street Journal had the best projection model. I’d say they were pretty close.

Here’s the table, updated with the “actual” column:

Table 32 – Sheet1

xxx

I added up the differences between the actual and each of the picks for these 10 countries. Here’s what I wound up with:

  • 32: Wall Street Journal
  • 38: Sports Illustrated
  • 55: SportsMyriad
  • 58: Infostrada/USA TODAY
  • 58: Tuck School of Business model
  • 79: Johnson/Colorado College model
It’s a band of pastry chefs! No, wait — those are American gold medalists. Look, enough with the designers — the next Olympic uniforms should be designed by Levi Strauss.

So what have we learned?

1. It pays to go sport-by-sport. Call it the philosophy major’s revenge over the economists. (Kidding!)

2. As expected, the WSJ effort’s to factor in probabilities paid off pretty well.

3. SI’s pretty good at this.

4. I put too much faith in the home-country bump. But I had a feeling that would be the case.

One more bit of numbers to toss out: How far off was I in predicting gold medals? Let’s take a look:

Overprojected: USA 9, Japan 7, Australia 6, Kenya 4. Tied at 3: Greece, Slovakia, Iran, Britain.

Underprojected: South Korea 5, Hungary 5, France 4, North Korea 4. Tied at 3: China, Kazakhstan, Cuba, South Africa.

Want to dig into any more numbers? Knock yourself out.

The fun part: This is only the beginning. I’ve compiled too much data to stop now. I’m going to start building out pages on Olympic sports with the goal that we’ll know roughly what to expect in World Championships. Then we’ll adjust those pages with World Championship results so that we can rev up in 2015 with projections for 2016.

And I’ll do the same for winter sports. We have considerably fewer of those.

Only 543 days until Sochi!

Update: The WSJ is pretty happy with its projections.

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medal projections, olympic sports

The China-USA medal count battle and Olympic projections: Don’t panic!

Posted on by Beau Dure

You may have noticed that China is leading the USA in the medal count through 200 of 302 events. The total numbers* are:

China 73
USA 70

So you may then look at the various medal projections and say, “Gee, I guess Infostrada was right — China will get more than the USA.”

I maintain that the Wall Street Journal projections are looking better than the rest. Here’s why:

For all of China’s success, they’re running only six medals ahead of my projection, and the USA is only three medals behind. My projection was:

USA 113
China 84

So if I have no more errors (ha!) in the projections, it would finish like this:

USA 110
China 90

Now let’s say the results tell us China is stronger than I anticipated and the USA is slightly weaker. That’s not such a dumb thing to say — where I had two athletes who were pretty close, I often went against the Chinese athlete, figuring results in London would be worse than results in Beijing.

We’re roughly two-thirds of the way through the Games, and China is six medals ahead. Let’s extrapolate from there and say they end up nine medals ahead. The USA would end up 4.5 medals behind — let’s call it five. We get this:

USA 108
China 93

What did the Wall Street Journal project?

USA 108
China 92

Freaky. So how is this possible?

Let’s take a look at the remaining medals I’ve projected for China:

Athletics, Men’s 110 m hurdles, Bronze
Table tennis, Men’s team, Gold
Taekwondo, Women’s 49 kg, Gold
Wrestling, Women’s 48 kg free, Bronze
Wrestling, Women’s 63 kg free, Bronze
Boxing, Flyweight (women), Silver
Boxing, Lightweight (women), Bronze
Diving, Women’s 10 m platform, Gold, Silver
Taekwondo, Women’s 57 kg, Gold
Wrestling, Women’s 72 kg free, Bronze
Synchro, Women’s team, Silver
Athletics, Women’s 20 km walk, Bronze
Boxing, Light flyweight, Gold
Boxing, Heavyweight, Bronze
Diving, Men’s 10 m platform, Gold
Volleyball, Women’s team, Bronze

And the remaining medals projected for the USA:

Athletics, Women’s 200 m, Gold, Bronze
Athletics, Men’s 110 m hurdles, Gold
Athletics, Women’s 400 m hurdles, Gold
Athletics, Women’s long jump, Gold
Volleyball, Women’s beach volleyball, Gold, Bronze
Wrestling, Women’s 48 kg free, Bronze
Wrestling, Women’s 63 kg free, Bronze
Athletics, Men’s triple jump, Gold, Bronze
Athletics, Men’s decathlon, Gold, Silver
Athletics, Men’s 200 m, Bronze
Athletics, Men’s 800 m, Bronze
Boxing, Middleweight (women), Bronze
Football, Women’s team, Gold
Taekwondo, Women’s 57 kg, Bronze
Volleyball, Men’s beach volleyball, Gold
Water polo, Women’s team, Gold
Wrestling, Women’s 72 kg free, Bronze
Athletics, Women’s 4×100 m relay, Gold
Athletics, Men’s 4×400 m relay, Gold
Basketball, Men’s team, Gold
Cycling, Men’s BMX, Gold
Cycling, Women’s BMX, Bronze
Taekwondo, Men’s 80 kg, Bronze
Wrestling, Men’s 74 kg free, Gold
Athletics, Men’s 5000 m, Bronze
Athletics, Men’s 4×100 m relay, Silver
Athletics, Women’s 4×400 m relay, Gold
Athletics, Women’s high jump, Silver
Basketball, Women’s team, Gold
Diving, Men’s 10 m platform, Silver
Sailing, Elliot, Gold
Volleyball, Women’s team, Gold
Wrestling, Men’s 84 kg free, Bronze
Wrestling, Men’s 120 kg free, Bronze
Boxing, Flyweight, Bronze
Volleyball, Men’s team, Silver

Quite a difference, isn’t it?

China’s top sports have been swimming (10 medals), badminton (8) and diving (8). Swimming and badminton are done, and diving has only two more events.

Of the remaining 102 medal events, 24 are in track and field. Another 13 are in boxing, 12 in canoe/kayak sprint, 11 are in wrestling and eight are taekwondo. Take a look at one compilation of Chinese athletes and how they’ve fared so far, and you’ll see China has scant medal hopes in track and field (particularly with Liu Xiang’s unfortunate injury). They’re going to get less than my projected four medals in boxing. (The USA has already matched my boxing projection of two.) They have five wrestlers in 11 events. They’ll get three at most in canoe/kayak sprint. No country can have more than four in taekwondo; China has three.

So while the USA is well on its way to breaking 100, China would practically have to win out to get there.

* – Yes, I’m using total numbers for this. I could do a second analysis just for gold medals to appease the pedantic folks who insist that medal counts should be ranked by gold, but I don’t see much point. China might stay atop the gold-medal count if the U.S. track and field squad comes up with a whole bunch of silver.

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medal projections

2012 medal projections: The mega-meta comparison

Posted on by Beau Dure

SportsMyriad.com has completed an exhaustive review of the 2012 Olympic events and come up with the following medal projections: USA 113, Russia 85, China 84, Britain 78, Germany 52.

How does this compare to other projections? Glad you asked …

Table 32 – Sheet1

These projections are:

  • MYRIAD: Mine, based on reading through results of the past four years (especially the last two). Originally done last year; updated this month.
  • WSJ: Wall Street Journal, based on probabilities assigned for each country to medal in each event. And those probabilities are based on recent results and interviews with experts.
  • SI: Sports Illustrated (saw it in print, didn’t see it on the site), based on predictions in each event. (Similar to mine.)
  • INFO: Infostrada/USA TODAY, also based on results but uses “an algorithm.” It’s a bit more detailed than something I attempted at USA TODAY heading into the Athens Games.
  • JOHNSON: Colorado College professor Dan Johnson, who has made projections for several Olympiads using socioeconomic and other factors.
  • TUCK: Emily Williams, using population and economic data along with historic results. She has picked up this formula from Tuck School of Business (Dartmouth) professor Andrew Bernard. (Yes, I’m also picturing Ed Helms.)

Several of these projections, including mine, are also being compared at Top End Sports.

I’ll now do the time-tested self-interview, partially because it’s an old PR tactic and partially because my brain is completely scrambled after doing the update of each event in about 10 days.

So you think your projection will be closest to the final tally?

Actually, no. The Wall Street Journal’s method looks best. The expert interviews should fill in a few holes in the results. Some athletes simply don’t show their best until the Games, and the experts can often name them. And then converting that information to probabilities is a good way to account for the fact that some sports are sure bets and some are crapshoots. (Let’s say I have a little more confidence in the men’s 400 individual medley than I do in most of the taekwondo picks.)

Looks like the USA will run away with it, and Britain will do pretty well, too.

Perhaps, but this might be a flaw of my methodology. It’s simply easier to get information about those two countries than it is about, say, Azerbaijan’s.

That said, I don’t see any way the USA drops all the way from 110 medals to 88, which is what Infostrada/USA TODAY is projecting.

In Britain’s case, when one of their athletes was roughly even with someone else, I picked Britain. Home advantage means something. But realistically, out of maybe 20 such occasions in which I picked the British athlete to shine at home, it’ll happen perhaps 10-15 times. The question is whether British fans will propel 10-15 athletes who normally wouldn’t medal to do so this time around. If that happens, my projection of the high 70s will come true. If not, it’ll be closer to everyone else’s picks.

How about China?

Yeah, how about that? Infostrada/USA TODAY says they’ll lead the medal count. SI says 97. Johnson says 67. I think they’re going to drop off a bit from Beijing. Going sport by sport, I saw several events in which China’s 2008 results were surely influenced by home advantage — athletes medaled at home but didn’t accomplish much in the next couple of world championships.

Why are you doing this?

I’ve done similar things in my years at USA TODAY, and I wanted to give it a try on my own.

Will you do this again for the 2014 Games?

Probably. The Winter Games are much easier to track.

And again for 2016?

I’ll need a nap first.

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medal projections, olympic sports

2012 medal projection update: Wrestling

Posted on by Beau Dure

Plenty of information sources here. USA Wrestling’s site, The Mat, takes the same approach to wrestling that the big pro sports’ sites take to their sports — they’re the clearinghouse of news and features going well beyond the standard federation fare. (That almost makes up for the utterly uninformative international site run by FILA.) And with so many wrestlers moving on into MMA, the thriving MMA blogosphere will weigh in — check out Bloody Elbow’s in-depth previews if you want to know more than who beat whom.

One caveat here: We have not seen final entry lists. When The Mat’s previews list qualifiers and say “fifth in 2011 World Championships,” they mean the country earned the quota spot that way. The wrestler in the Olympics might not be the same person. As a final reminder, the point of this exercise is to come up with a complete medal projection by country. In a lot of cases, a Russian wrestler may be a medal contender even if it’s not the same person we expected.

I’ve been a great fan of the crowd-sourcing that’s taking place here. If you see a name in this post that ought to be removed, please let me know.

The 2011 World Championships took place after the original picks, so we have a lot of new information here.

To the mat we go …

Continue reading →

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medal projections, olympic sports

2012 medal projection update: Weightlifting

Posted on by Beau Dure

When we last attempted to project this sport, we were trying to guess which 10 athletes would be picked from each country. Those memories had been repressed for a while.

Now it’s a little easier. We have the final entry list with everyone’s qualifying weight. And when you consider weightlifting has no wind or mud that can affect someone’s performance, it’ll take a lot for us to go against the entry list. You might say the federation has done the heavy lifting for us.

(Hey, only two more posts to go. You can deal with another bad pun or two.)

Well, sort of. The qualifying weights don’t include the 2011 numbers, so we may take a peek at those as well. Especially when the Chinese lifters aren’t at the top of the 2012 list.

Also, if you’re going to be competing in London, you apparently can’t eat geraniums.

Away we go.

Continue reading →

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