medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 23

The 50k cross-country race turned into a microcosm of the Olympics — a big pack going around most of the way, then Russia blasting away from everyone at the end.

For the last couple of days, we’ve figured no country would get more than 30 medals. With that cross-country sweep, Russia wound up with 33.

We’ll wrap up later today or tomorrow with a look at where each country gained or lost.

FULL TABLE

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HIGHLIGHTS

Most prescient thing I’ve ever written: On OZY on Saturday, I wrote about Tara Lipinski and Johnny Weir: “Why limit them to figure skating? How about red-carpet critiques?” Today’s news: “The duo are leaving Sochi following their last show for NBC and heading to Los Angeles, where they’ll critique fashion at the Oscars for Access Hollywood.”

Best argument against inconsistent drug-testing authoritarianism: Sweden’s Nicklas Backstrom’s allergy medication tripped a drug test that wasn’t handled in a way that broke a lot of precedent. (Disclaimer 1: I’m a Washington Capitals fan. Disclaimer 2, more importantly: I’ve seen a lot of nonsense like this in the name of “anti-doping.”)

Most candid statement on doping: Austrian skier Johannes Duerr (no relation) blamed no one but himself: “This is the worst thing I’ve done in my life.”

Most impressive stand: The Olympics are finished, and 73-year-old Prokofey Drovichev’s house is still right next to the Olympic Park.

Biggest improvements: Russia’s leap from 15 medals in 2010 to 33 this time is second only to the USA’s leap from 13 to 34 in 2002, Bill Mallon reports. Adding sports and being at home can do that.

Cutest interview: Figure skater Polina Edmunds needed to interview someone in Spanish for her high school class. Short-track skater Eddy Alvarez stepped up. (HT: For the Win)

Biggest relief: One way or another, all those people who promised death and destruction during the Olympics were dissuaded.

That’s all, folks. For now. After catching up on sleep, expect more breakdowns of the numbers from Sochi. Then news and notes from the rest of the winter sports season. Then we gear up for Rio.

 

medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 22

Unless Alexander Zubkov crashes on his home track and Norway sweeps the 50k cross-country race on Sunday, Russia will be the first host country to finish atop the medal count since … Norway, in 1994.

If you prefer following gold medal counts to overall medal counts, you’re no fun, and possibly a little pedantic. But the last host country to have the most gold medals was Canada, last time.

A few bits of medal trivia:

– 26 countries have won medals in Sochi, tying the number from last time. In fact, they’re the same 26.

– The projections had 25 countries winning medals. Slovakia and Croatia weren’t projected for medals but came through in biathlon (Slovakia’s Anastasiya Kuzmina, gold) and Alpine skiing (Croatia’s Ivica Kostelic, silver). Liechtenstein did not get its projected medal, thanks to Tina Weirather’s ill-timed training crash.

– Russia and the Netherlands are locked in a battle for most improved. Russia won 15 medals in 2010, only three gold, but have 29 in 2014 with another one likely tomorrow. The Netherlands jumped from eight medals in 2010 to 24 this year.

CURRENT PACE

Original projections: Norway 39, USA 35, Canada 30, Russia 26, Germany 23, Austria 22, South Korea 15, Netherlands 14, France 12, Switzerland 11, Sweden 10, Japan 7, Italy 7, China 6, Czech Republic 6

The current count: Russia 29, USA 27, Norway 26, Canada 24, Netherlands 24, Germany 19, Austria 17, France 15, Sweden 14, Switzerland 11, China 9, South Korea and several others 8.

If the three remaining projections were to come true (and they can’t, because we know Russia won’t medal in hockey), we’d end up with: Russia 33, USA 28, Norway 27, Canada 25, Netherlands 24, Germany 20, Austria 17, France 15, Sweden 15, Switzerland 11, China 9, South Korea 8, Czech Republic 8, Japan 8, Italy 8. (Also, Slovenia 8, from an original projection of 5.)

We know Finland will take hockey bronze for its fifth medal, and Sweden and Canada will each take a hockey medal. We’re halfway through the four-man bobsled, and it’s very close between Russia, Latvia, Germany and the USA. There’s an outside chance of a second medal for Germany or Russia, or possibly one medal for Britain or Switzerland. The original projection was Russia, Germany, USA. If I had to predict it now, I’d say Russia, Latvia, USA.

The cross-country picks were Norway, Russia, Russia. Based on form, I’d say Norway, Finland, Russia.

So tomorrow’s projected medal count: Russia 2, Finland 2, Norway 1, Sweden 1, Canada 1, Latvia 1, USA 1.

So the final guess for the final medal count is: Russia 31, USA 28, Norway 27, Canada 25, Netherlands 24, Germany 19, Austria 17, France 15, Sweden 15, etc.

UP

Germany (+2 today, -3 overall): Rallying late in the Games with success in biathlon and snowboarding today. In position to finish at -3 if the bobsled team comes through. (Or get back to even by sweeping the 50k cross-country.)

Russia (+1 today, +7 overall): Vic Wild did it again, the biathlon men picked up their projected relay gold, and the speedskating women added one more.

Austria (+1 today, -5 overall): Projected for a big haul of four medals from seven events today, and they did even better with five.

FULL TABLE

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HIGHLIGHTS

Most audacious goal: Mikaela Shiffrin says she’s going for five golds in 2018, one better than Janica Kostelic’s record. She’ll need to pick up the speed events in a hurry.

Worst bobsled finish: A Canadian sled wound up upside-down.

Worst teammate: See, the Dutch speedskaters aren’t perfect.

Worst political display:

https://twitter.com/ESPNOlympics/status/437238509707857920

Worst illness timing:

https://twitter.com/ESPNOlympics/status/437238506356621312

Biggest sign that this is all ending:

medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 21

Justin Reiter, a nation’s hopes are in your hands.

Who? He’s a snowboarder who does parallel events, which we in the USA don’t follow or fund to the same extent we follow and fund halfpipe, slopestyle and various X Games-ish things. Reiter actually needs another $12,000 and change to fund his Sochi excursion.

How unknown is he? “Walking into the Olympics, I had other snowboarders on Team USA asking me if I was a coach.” he told ESPN’s Alyssa Roenigk.

And yet, Reiter may be the USA’s key to reaching 30 medals.

The USA has 27 medals — the most, by one over Russia. The Games have 10 events left.

The projections give the USA two more medals. One, speedskating team pursuit, won’t happen — the U.S. men are racing for seventh place. Another, four-man bobsled, is a good possibility.

The U.S. is not projected to win a medal in ice hockey, but they have a good shot. That and bobsled would give the USA 29 medals.

Where could the USA get No. 30?

No Americans are entered in women’s snowboarding parallel slalom. The U.S. women’s speedskaters are racing for fifth in team pursuit.

Men’s slalom (the familiar Alpine skiing version) isn’t out of the question, but don’t bet on it. Ted Ligety has the gold medal to show for his giant slalom prowess, but he has done no better than 11th in slalom this season. The other skiers would need some sort of Weibrechtian surprise to get on the podium.

The cross-country endurance events (women’s 30k, men’s 50k) would also require a career performance for a U.S. medal. So would the biathlon relay, where the USA doesn’t have a lot of depth.

So if Reiter, who was second in the 2013 World Championships, can get a few breaks in the unpredictable world of snowboarding’s parallel events, the USA might have a shot at 30. Better than no shot, right?

CURRENT PACE

Original projections: Norway 39, USA 35, Canada 30, Russia 26, Germany 23, Austria 22, South Korea 15, Netherlands 14, France 12, Switzerland 11, Sweden 10, Japan 7, Italy 7, China 6, Czech Republic 6

If the rest of the projections were to come true, we’d end up with: Russia 32, USA 29, Norway 27, Canada 25, Netherlands 24, Germany 18, Austria 16, France 16, Sweden 15, Switzerland 12, China 9, Japan 9, Italy 9, South Korea 8, Czech Republic 8.

We know Russia won’t get a medal in men’s hockey. The remaining projected medals are biathlon (men’s relay), snowboarding (women’s parallel slalom), bobsled (four-man), and two in cross-country skiing (men’s 50k).

UP

China (+1 today, +3 overall): The narrow loss in curling may sting, but three medals in short-track will make any country happy.

USA (+1 today, -6 overall): Like Ted Ligety, Mikaela Shiffrin dealt with the pressure of being the favorite with no trouble at all. And the short-track men’s relay kept US Speedskating from a complete shutout in Sochi.

Ukraine (+1 today, even overall): What a great story — a country torn by unrest at home delivering a steady, gutsy performance in the women’s biathlon relay to win a convincing gold medal.

FULL TABLE

[gview file=”https://duresport.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014-medal-projections-feb21.pdf”%5D

HIGHLIGHTS

Biggest winner: 

Biggest opportunity for federation to question itself: South Korea let Ahn get away.

Best U.S. employment program: Maybe we can’t call it the best, but it’s expansive — Adecco has 291 athletes placed with jobs, including hotel valet/speedskater Patrick Meek.

Best Winter Games growth area: Latin America has snow but no medals.

Best trifecta of Dutch transportation methods/sports: 

Most surprisingly un-Photoshopped photo:

Best case to quit complaining and change tactics and/or coaches: British short-track speedskater Elise Christie has already been disqualified once in these Games for barging into someone else. (And once more for literally missing the finish line.) So in today’s 1,ooo-meter showdowns, she managed to pull off one miraculous escape by rallying from the back to advance, then tried to do it again against a pretty good group of skaters. See the 17:44 update at the BBC to see what Christie did to get past Li Jianrou. Christie and Li pretty much fell over each other at the next turn. They were both disqualified, which is quite reasonable. But don’t tell that to the British commentators or Twitter public.

Strangest speedskating suggestion (tie): From International Skating Union President for Life Ottavio Cinquanta – mixed team pursuit!

Strangest speedskating suggestion (tie): Dutch speedskating coach Jillert Anema thinks the USA should quit wasting time on sports like American football.

Quote most likely to be remembered in four years: Anema, from the same interview – “You won’t beat us, not in four years, not in eight years.”

SATURDAY’S PROJECTIONS

Alpine skiing, men’s slalom: Marcel Hirscher (Austria), Mario Matt (Austria), Felix Neureuther (Germany)

Also considered: Ivica Kostelic (Croatia), Andre Myhrer (Sweden)

Biathlon, men’s relay: Russia, Norway, France

Also considered: Austria, Germany, Sweden

Cross-country skiing, women’s 30k: Justyna Kowalczyk (Poland), Therese Johaug (Norway), Marit Bjoergen (Norway)

Also considered: Yulia Tchekaleva (Russia)

Snowboarding, women’s parallel slalom: Ekaterina Tudegesheva (Russia), Patrizia Kummer (Switzerland), Hilde-Katrine Engeli (Norway)

Also considered: Caroline Calve (Canada), Isabella Laböck (Germany), Amelie Kober (Germany), Marion Kreiner (Austria)

Snowboarding, men’s parallel slalom: Andreas Prommegger (Austria), Roland Fischnaller (Italy), Rok Marguc (Austria)

Also considered: Benjamin Karl (Austria), Zan Kosir (Slovenia), Justin Reiter (USA), Simon Schoch (Switzerland), Vic Wild (Russia)

Speedskating, women’s team pursuit: Netherlands, Poland, Japan

Also considered: Canada, Russia. Actual semifinalists: Russia, Poland, Japan, Netherlands

Speedskating, men’s team pursuit: Netherlands, South Korea, USA

Also considered: Norway, Poland, Russia. Actual gold medal final: Netherlands vs. South Korea. Actual bronze medal final: Poland vs. Canada.

medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 19

All in the family today, with unique pairs of siblings and spouses in action:

– Siblings Anatasiya Kuzmina (Slovakia) and Anton Shipulin (Russia) competed against each other in the first Olympic biathlon mixed relay, and their teams finished 0.3 seconds apart — Russia fifth, Slovakia sixth.

– American-born snowboarder Vic Wild won parallel giant slalom gold for Russia. He gained Russian citizenship after marrying Alena Zavarzina — who won bronze in her event just a few minutes earlier.

So if you took Wild’s medal and reclassified it for the USA, the Americans and Russians would be tied on the current medal projection pace. But after today’s hockey quarterfinals, Russia could use a nice feel-good story like the Wild-Zavarzina family.

CURRENT PACE

Original projections: Norway 39, USA 35, Canada 30, Russia 26, Germany 23, Austria 22, South Korea 15, Netherlands 14, France 12, Switzerland 11, Sweden 10, Japan 7, Italy 7

If the rest of the projections were to come true, like they did in speedskating today, the medal count would be: Russia 31, USA 29, Norway 27, Canada 27, Netherlands 24, Germany 19, Austria 15, Sweden 15, France 14, Switzerland 14, South Korea 9, Japan 9, Italy 9

UP

Switzerland (+2 today, +3 overall): Parallel giant slalom snowboarding was very good to the Alpine country.

USA (+1 today, -6 overall): One more medal than expected in women’s bobsled, but also a bonus for someone who was under tremendous expectations and delivered — Ted Ligety.

DOWN

Austria (-4 today, -7 overall): It’s not as bad as it seems. Three of those medals were in the wild and wacky world of parallel giant slalom snowboarding. The other was in men’s giant slalom — the original Alpine skiing variety.

Germany (-2 today, -4 overall): Bobsledders aren’t getting it done.

FULL TABLE

[gview file=”https://duresport.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014-medal-projections-feb19.pdf”%5D

HIGHLIGHTS

Best legacy to keep alive: Once again, freestyle skiing pioneer Sarah Burke. Everyone wishes she was in these Olympics, but everyone is thinking of her.

Best reminder that Americans also complain about figure skating judges: Frank Carroll, speaking before the short program, dismissed Julia Lipnitskaia as a “little girl.”

Best reminder that Americans sometimes have a good point when they complain about figure skating judges: “How in the world Sotnikova ended up ahead of Kostner, whose poise and lyricism is light years ahead of the Russian’s, is anyone’s guess.” – Christine Brennan

Best stats

Most important thing to remember about Lolo Jones: She recruited Lauryn Williams, who beat her out for a spot in the top USA sled.

Most arcane conspiracy theory: Norwegian cross-county ski team wax technician Knut Nystad – “I wish I had the best products, preferably the stuff the Swedes have. There are rumors that certain producers favor certain countries. We’ve heard that rumor from two distributors.”

Most intriguing conspiracy theory: Playing time and line combinations on Russia’s hockey team were bizarre. “Why? Because the KHL and Russian hockey hoped to use the world’s biggest hockey games as a propaganda tool for the Russian professional league that vies to rival the NHL. Well, that was a complete and utter disaster.” – Pierre LeBrun, ESPN

Best impression of a boxer’s career indecision: Yevgeny Plushenko’s latest retirement hasn’t lasted long.

Best bear moment:

Worst bear moment:

Most frightening quote:

Worst teammate: Take it away, @ChuckBerkeley, and good luck finding any evidence that the third U.S. sled would’ve done any better without Lolo Jones.

Least effective drug test: Japanese skier Akira Lenting only had one event on his agenda — the men’s relay. But his teammates were lapped, which meant he wouldn’t get to ski his anchor leg. Then his name was drawn for a drug test. Gee, it’d be a shame if Japan had to vacate that result.

THURSDAY’S PROJECTIONS

Curling, women’s bronze and gold medal games: Sweden, Britain, Canada

Sweden-Canada for gold, Britain-Switzerland for bronze. Based on today’s semifinals, pick Canada, Sweden, Britain.

Figure skating, women’s free skate: Mao Asada (Japan), Yuna Kim (South Korea), Ashley Wagner (USA). Also considered: Gracie Gold (USA), Julia Lipnitskaia (Russia), Carolina Kostner (Italy), Adelina Sotnikova (Russia)

Actual top 6 through the short program: Kim, Sotnikova, Kostner, Gold, Lipnitskaia, Wagner. Let’s not talk about Asada.

Freestyle skiing, men’s skicross: Alex Fiva (Switzerland), Dave Duncan (Canada), Andreas Matt (Austria), Jean Frederic Chapuis (France), Chris Del Bosco (Canada), Filip Flisar (Slovenia), Victor Oehling Norberg (Sweden)

Confidence level: Maybe a 2 on a scale of 1 to 5. Not the most predictable event.

Freestyle skiing, women’s halfpipe: Virginie Faivre (Switzerland), Roz Groenewoud (Canada), Maddie Bowman (USA). Also considered: Marie Martinod (France), Ayana Onozuka (Japan)

Should be a terrific competition.

Ice hockey, women’s bronze and gold medal games: USA, Canada, Finland. Also considered: Russia

USA-Canada for gold, Sweden-Switzerland for bronze.

Nordic combined, team: Germany, Norway, France. Also considered: Austria, Japan, USA

Individual large hill results:

  • Norway: 1, 2, 9, 12
  • Germany: 3, 4, 8, 10 (#10, normal hill winner Eric Frenzel, was sick)
  • Austria: 5, 15, 17, 19
  • France: 7, 13, 21, 27
  • Japan: 6, 26, 35, dns
  • Italy: 18, 23, 28, 41
  • Czech Republic: 11, 25, 29, 32
  • USA: 20, 22, 31, dns
  • Finland: 14, 38, 42, 44
medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 17

Where, exactly, did Canada get the impression we’re out to get them?

I’ll admit my bias up front — my life has been immeasurably enriched by many Canadians. I grew up listening to Rush. Now, I also listen to semi-Canadian band Metric. I love hockey and curling. I watched Kids in the Hall, and my beloved Saturday Night Live owes an immense debt to the comic sensibilities of those north of the border.

I’m probably not alone. Many people in the USA joke that they’ll move to Canada one day, either through the ravages of electoral politics or climate change. Some aren’t joking.

Then we get things like this:

Wow. What did Lindsey Jacobellis do to you? Or Canada?

And then we have the ice dancing controversy, already addressed in detail. The whole thing is just so puzzling. First of all, it’s rather difficult to pull off a stunt like that no that we no longer have Cold War voting blocs.

Second of all, if the USA were to fix an event, wouldn’t it be women’s hockey? I know no one who dislikes Tessa Virtue or Scott Moir. I know plenty of people who can’t mention Gillian Apps without some rather pointed profanity.

It’s starting to sound like this:

So we’re moving on. And we at SportsMyriad are pleased to welcome Canada’s own Justin Fairbanks to our Sochi coverage team. Check out his terrific debut on men’s aerials, where we’re sorry to see Canada didn’t medal.

On to the rest of the day …

CURRENT PACE

Based on results and projections yet to come: Russia 29, USA 28, Canada 27, Norway 27, Netherlands 24, Austria 21, Germany 20, Sweden 16, France 13, Switzerland 13, South Korea 9, Japan 9

DOWN

No one, really.

UP

Belarus (+1 today, +3 overall): The powerhouse of biathlon and aerials (see Will Graves tweets below) roars again.

USA (+1 today, -7 overall): Steven Holcomb was a contender but not a projected medalist in the two-man bobsled. And the U.S. hockey women rolled into the gold medal game. Let’s not talk about curling.

FULL TABLE

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HIGHLIGHTS

Best analogy: “(Fixing ice dancing) would have been akin to someone trying to fix the Olympic swimming competition so Michael Phelps would win.” – Christine Brennan

Best tough-guy quote: 

Best teammate: Canadian speedskater Gilmore Junio gave up his spot in the 1,000 meters to Denny Morrison, who crashed in the Olympic trials. Morrison won silver. “I view it like a line change (in hockey),” Junio said. “That big faceoff, when you want your best faceoff man at the circle. That’s the simplest way I can put it.”

Best argument: From Slate’s @BenBlattWhy bother with four runs in the sliding sports when the leaderboard rarely changes?

Biggest “duh!” moment:

Best press conference we won’t see: AP’s Will Graves sums up in several tweets: “OK, so the nitty gritty of Anton Kushnir _ who won gold in aerials tonight _ will likely only be told at length back home in Belarus … But it includes 2 major knee surgeries, being denied insurance by the skiing federation, relying on his wife to get the insurance … and spending 5 years _ yes, 5 years _ waiting to throw a jump he landed just once in competition. Then doing it on the night he talked about and posting one of the highest scores (134.50) since the sport adjusted it’s scoring system in the last quadrennium. And he was so thoughtful and respectful of the moment, it just kind of took you away. There were 5 English-speaking journos in the presser and the bright lights of NBC were long gone. But damn, that might have been the highlight of the Games for me. And I’m serious.”

Best perspective on Meryl White and Charlie Davis:

Biggest streak-busting: Germany displacing Austria atop team ski jumping.

Best consolation prize: If you finish fourth through eighth at the Olympics, you get something to hang alongside your college diplomas.

Best U.S. breakthrough: Biathlete Susan Dunklee has been fast throughout the Games. Knock down a couple more targets, and she’s a medal contender. Maybe 2018?

Most impressive sport switch: Germany’s Evi Sachenbacher-Stehle had a long and distinguished career in cross-country skiing. She has had a short career so far in biathlon but came within a second of a medal today.

Most detailed analysis of how the USA’s speedskaters defied expectations: I defer to you and your mountain of data factoring altitude and other elements into the equation, Daniel Yeow. (HT: @alanabrahamson)

Worst time for a skirt to get snagged: Maia Shibutani and brother Alex had a fun free dance routine set to Michael Jackson tunes. Not realized at the time — he had to free her from his shoulder during a lift in which her skirt caught on his jacket.

Worst aftereffect of a late building spree? Norwegian skiing great Aksel Lund Svindal has stopped his frustrating quest to build on past Olympic success, declining his last opportunity to race due to allergies he thinks are from “concrete that’s in the air.”

Worst time to get sick: Nordic combined gold medalist Eric Frenzel isn’t likely to go for the double tomorrow.

Worst time for multiple calamities: A couple of 40something skiers qualified to represent Dominica in the Olympics. One showered in brown water and got sick. Another shattered her nose in training. What are the odds? Mark Zeigler has the story.

Worst weather: Though, as Bill Mallon reminds us, this sort of thing happens in the Winter Olympics.

TOMORROW’S PROJECTIONS

Alpine skiing, women’s giant slalom: Jessica Lindell-Vikarby (Sweden), Anna Fenninger (Austria), Lara Gut (Switzerland). Also considered: Maria Hoefl-Riesch (Germany), Tina Maze (Slovenia), Viktoria Rebensburg (Germany), Mikaela Shiffrin (USA), Kathrin Zettel (Austria).

We have yet to see Shiffrin. This isn’t her best event, but she’s got a shot.

Biathlon, men’s mass start (rescheduled from Sunday): Martin Fourcade (France), Tarjei Boe (Norway), Emil Hegle Svendsen (Norway). Also considered: Andreas Birnbacher (Germany), Tim Burke (USA), Jakov Fak (Slovenia), Dominik Landertinger (Austria), Ondrej Moravec (Czech Republic), Evgeny Ustyugov (Russia).

Fourcade has delivered so far, while Norway is really overdue.

Freestyle skiing, men’s halfpipe: David Wise (USA), Torin Yater-Wallace (USA), Mike Riddle (Canada). Also considered: Justin Dorey (Canada), Thomas Krief (France), Kevin Rolland (France)

Not quite sure how healthy Yater-Wallace is.

Nordic combined, large hill: Eric Frenzel (Germany), Wilhelm Dinifl (Austria), Jason Lamy-Chappuis (France). Also considered: Bernhard Gruber (Austria), Mikko Kokslien (Norway), Akito Watabe (Japan)

Frenzel is ailing.

Short-track, women’s relay: China, South Korea, Canada. Also considered: Italy, Netherlands, Russia

The actual finalists are China, South Korea, Canada and Italy. So the projections can’t be too far off.

Snowboarding, men’s snowboardcross (rescheduled from Monday): Alex Pullin (Australia), Markus Schairer (Austria), Pierre Vaultier (France). Also considered: Tony Ramoin (France), Omar Visintin (Italy)

Just don’t let anyone get hurt.

Speedskating, men’s 10,000 meters: Sven Kramer (Netherlands), Jorrit Bergsma (Netherlands), Bob de Jong (Netherlands). Also considered: Seung-Hoon Lee (South Korea)

We can safely say the Netherlands will not exceed medal projections in this one.

medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 16

The USA and Norway made up for missteps elsewhere with Alpine skiing medals, the biathlon was postponed, and the Netherlands have produced a lot of really good speedskaters.

CURRENT PACE

Original projections: Norway 39, USA 35, Canada 30, Russia 26, Germany 23, Austria 22, South Korea 15, Netherlands 14, France 12, Switzerland 11, Sweden 10

If the rest of the projections were to come true, I will ride down the snowboardcross course on a trash can lid. But the medal count would be Russia 29, Canada 28, Norway 27, USA 27, Netherlands 24, Germany 21, Austria 21, Sweden 16, France 13, Switzerland 13, South Korea 9. And China, projected for 6, would have 9 as well.

UP

France (+2 today, +1 overall): Only four medal events were completed today, and France picked up bronze in two. Snowboardcross wasn’t a big surprise. The cross-country relay medal looked like it even shocked the team.

Netherlands (+1 today, +10 overall): Projected for gold and silver in speedskating. They took gold, silver, bronze and whatever you get for fourth. And they lead the medal count with 17. That’s 16 in speedskating and one in … well, short-track speedskating. We’re now just tallying the historical comparisons.

DOWN

Just Austria and Switzerland, who didn’t get projected Alpine skiing medals. Sure, Norway inexplicably missed out in the cross-country relay, but we would be piling on at this point. Besides, they got the projected Alpine medal (albeit with a different skier).

FULL TABLE

[gview file=”https://duresport.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014-medal-projections-feb16.pdf”%5D

HIGHLIGHTS

Best photo gallery: The Guardian captured several events at sunset.

Best perspective: “There are worse things in life than not winning. A lot worse.” – Lindsey Jacobellis, who has won every conceivable title except the Olympics.

Best NBC recruitment tool: They have a secret Starbucks shop.

Best phrase written by a Duke grad: Sarah Kwak, covering speedskating at SI, wins with the “Great Polyurethane Panic.”

Best reason not to be in Sochi: Lolo Jones passes along a video food review.

Most deserving of a spinoff TV show: Tara Lipinski and Johnny Weir.

Best reason to postpone an event: Can you see what you’re shooting?

https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/435075954000408576

Most haunting photos: Vladimir Putin visited injured Russian skicross skier Maria Komissarova in the hospital. Komissarova looks alert but in sad shape.

Worst day: Lindsey Jacobellis was once known as “Lucky Lindsey.” But first, she saw her friend and teammates knocked unconscious in qualifying. Then she failed to qualify for the final. World Championships, X Games and World Cup gold medals galore, but just one silver to show for her three Olympic appearances.

Strangest Games-ending injury: Arielle Gold missed the halfpipe competition because of this accident in training, which doesn’t occur when you’d expect. Did a gopher pop up out of the halfpipe?

Worst timing: Maybe they’re prepping the rest of the hotel for the Paralympics?

Most ominous delay of a response: “I will share everything I had in mind after Sochi is over.” – short-track speedskating gold medalist Viktor (nee Hyun-Soo) Ahn on his switch from South Korea to Russia.

Most esoteric ice dancing commentary: 

https://twitter.com/goddesspharo/status/435122977391521792

MONDAY’S PROJECTIONS

Biathlon, men’s mass start (rescheduled from Sunday): Martin Fourcade (France), Tarjei Boe (Norway), Emil Hegle Svendsen (Norway). Also considered: Andreas Birnbacher (Germany), Tim Burke (USA), Jakov Fak (Slovenia), Dominik Landertinger (Austria), Ondrej Moravec (Czech Republic), Evgeny Ustyugov (Russia).

Fourcade has delivered so far, while Norway is really overdue.

Biathlon, women’s mass start: Darya Domracheva (Belarus), Tora Berger (Norway), Vita Semerenko (Ukraine). Also considered: Kaisa Makarainen (Finland)

Maybe Berger can sneak into another country’s camp and borrow some wax.

Bobsled, two-man: Beat Hefti (Switzerland), Francesco Friedrich (Germany), Alexander Zubkov (Russia). Also considered: Thomas Florschütz (Germany), Steven Holcomb (USA), Oskars Melbardis (Latvia), Lyndon Rush (Canada)

After the first two heats, Zubkov has a big lead over Hefti, who’s slightly ahead of Holcomb. Then it’s the third Canadian sled with Justin Kripps, Russia-2 and Latvia.

Figure skating, ice dancing: Davis/White (USA), Virtue/Moir (Canada), Bobrova/Soloviev (Russia). Also considered: Cappellini/Lanotte (Italy), Ilinykh/Katsalapov (Russia), Pechalat/Bourzat (France), Weaver/Poje (Canada)

As ordained, er, expected, Davis and White have the lead with a world record in the short program. Virtue and Moir are second but apparently first in the hearts of a lot of Canadians and English folks on Twitter. A Russian duo is indeed in third, but it’s Ilinykh/Katsalapov slightly ahead of Pechalat/Bourzat.

Freestyle skiing, men’s aerials: Qi Guangpu (China), Jia Zongyang (China), Travis Gerrits (Canada). Also considered: Alexei Grishin (Belarus), Anton Kushnir (Belarus)

Ski jumping, men’s team: Austria, Germany, Slovenia. Also considered: Norway, Poland.

Average finish on the large hill: Japan 8.5, Poland 15.5, Germany 19, Slovenia 19.25, Norway 20.8, Austria 21.8.

Average finish in both events: Japan 13.1, Poland 14.4, Austria 15.1, Germany 17.9, Norway 18.8, Slovenia 20.5.

Maybe Japan should be considered.

Snowboarding, men’s snowboardcross: Alex Pullin (Australia), Markus Schairer (Austria), Pierre Vaultier (France). Also considered: Tony Ramoin (France), Omar Visintin (Italy)

Just don’t let anyone get hurt.

medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 14

Call them the Parity Games. We’re nearly at the halfway point, and instead of wondering if anyone would approach the USA’s record of 37 medals, we’re wondering if anyone would break 30. So many new events, so many different countries winning.

(OK, fine — you can also say it’s because the Netherlands are winning all the speedskating medals projected to go to the USA, and Sweden is winning a lot of the Nordic medals projected to go to Norway.)

CURRENT PACE

Original projections: Norway 39, USA 35, Canada 30, Russia 26, Germany 23, Austria 22, South Korea 15, Netherlands 14, France 12, Switzerland 11, Sweden 10

If the rest of the projections were to come true, I would die of shock. But the medal count would be Norway 29, Canada 29, Russia 29, USA 28, Austria 22, Netherlands 22, Germany 19, Switzerland 16, Sweden 16, France 11, South Korea 10

DOWN

Norway (-3 today, -10 overall): We can officially worry now. No medals in biathlon or cross-country today, and Aksel Lund Svindal is having rotten luck in Alpine. And they have to deal with ads on their once ad-free TV coverage.

USA (-1 today, -7 overall): Ted Ligety was well back in the combined, though Bode Miller gave it a good run.

RIGHT ON TARGET

Kazakhstan and Russia didn’t get their medals in cross-country skiing but made up for it figure skating and skeleton.

UP

Switzerland (+3 today, +5 overall): Dario Cologna is dominant in cross-country, and the Swiss picked up medals in Alpine skiing and biathlon.

Belarus (+2 today, +2 overall): Had one projected medal in biathlon. They got two in biathlon and another in aerials.

Sweden (+2 today, +6 overall): Through this point, they were projected for one medal. The cross-country skiers doubled that in one event today.

HIGHLIGHTS

Best retro look: Someone needs to dress like the bobsledders from 1924, when it appears nearly everything was held outside.

Best retro performance: British figure skating legends Torvill and Dean returned to Sarajevo to re-create an iconic gold medal performance in the rebuilding city.

Best use of a meme for an artificial holiday: Ashley Wagner’s Valentine’s Day card.

Best blending into a crowd by a king: Seriously, which guy is he?

Most ironic drink: Gold medalist Sage Kotsenburg has a drink named after him at Deer Valley. He’s still too young to drink. And Deer Valley doesn’t allow snowboarders.

Toughest expectations: China’s aerialists.

Weirdest streak: Croatian skier Ivica Kostelic

Best perspective on a weird streak: Croatian skier Ivica Kostelic.

Worst lack of respect for a cool music group: Afro Celt Sound System provided the music for Sweden’s Alexander Majorov in the men’s free skate, but they were credited as “Afro Celtic System,” and NBC’s otherwise excellent Tara Lipinski was befuddled by the sound.

Worst media overkill: Look, cross-country coaches help skiers from other countries all the time. Nice that we all recognized Canada’s Justin Wadsworth (a former U.S. skier) for it, but can we quit calling him now? He’s a little busy.

Worst timing for a car accident on the way to the airport: Germany’s eyes turn to Alpine skier Felix Neureuther, who was driving to the airport to go to Sochi on Friday but hit a road barrier. German doctors are checking him for whiplash.

Worst timing for a herniated disk: The Swedish hockey men lost their captain, Henrik Zetterberg.

Is anyone here NOT hurt?:

Best … um … worst … um … hmmm …:

FULL TABLE

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medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 13

Anyone else beginning to think US Speedskating’s super suits aren’t so super? Apparently.

And speedskating is the event responsible for the biggest changes from the original projections. It accounts for most of the USA’s drop, and it accounts for the Netherlands’ lofty rank in the medal table.

Here’s how things are shaping up …

CURRENT PACE

Original projections: Norway 39, USA 35, Canada 30, Russia 26, Germany 23, Austria 22, South Korea 15, Netherlands 14, France 12, Switzerland 11, Sweden 10

If the rest of the projections were to come true, Norway would have 32, and then we’d have a three-way tie at 29 — Canada, USA, Russia. Interesting. Then Austria and the Netherlands at 22, Germany 20, Sweden 14, Switzerland 13, France 12, South Korea 10.

Someone asked about gold medal projections. The original projections there: USA 15, Norway 14, Canada 10, Germany 8, Russia 6, Netherlands among a big group at 5.

The new pace through Thursday would have a four-way tie at 10 each: USA, Norway, Germany, Canada. Then Netherlands 8, Russia 7, Austria 6.

DOWN

Norway (-2 today, -7 overall): The story continues — still getting some medals at the Nordic venue, just not quite as many as expected. Marit Bjoergen and Emil Hegle Svendsen are usually good bets, but not today in the soft snow.

US Speedskating: Yes, we’re breaking them out separately. It’s one thing for Heather Richardson to miss the podium in the 500, where’s she good but not great. But when she and Brittany Bowe miss out in the 1,000 a day after Shani Davis did the same, then the team is in an 0-for-4 hole. That’s two-thirds of the USA’s current deficit of six.

The better news: The USA swept freestyle skiing’s men’s slopestyle, only the third such sweep in U.S. Winter Games history.

STEADYING

Germany (+1 today, -3 overall): They don’t always win medals, but when they do, they tend to be gold. Seven of their 10 medals so far are gold. Today, they picked up their expected gold in the luge relay along with their first silver — Erik Lesser in biathlon.

South Korea (even today, -5 overall): Picked up a short-track medal as expected.

UP

Netherlands (+2 today, +8 overall): Projected for four medals through this point. They have 12. Can we have speedskating events like “1,000 meters for skaters from somewhere else”? Maybe after we institute “badminton for people not from China” in the summer.

Sweden (+1 today, +4 today): Though, oddly enough, they have no gold so far.

China (+1 today, +2 overall): Gold in each form of speedskating today.

Latvia (+1 today, +2 overall): Slightly exceeding expectations on the sliding track, with one luge medal each of the last two days.

HIGHLIGHTS

Best Sarah McLachlan influence: Slopestyle medalist Gus Kenworthy is trying to bring a family of stray dogs back to the USA.

Least surprising way technology is changing the Games: Why wait to bump into someone to find a dating prospect? Slopestyle gold medalist Jamie Anderson says dating app Tinder is quite popular in the mountains. Hey, isn’t your event over?

Best performance by an athlete representing Togo: Mathilde-Amivi Petitjean was 68th in the women’s 10k classical cross-country race.

Best reason not to be too cynical about the Olympics: Mike Wise on the kids who share a bond of childhood illnesses with Shaun White. They got to meet him just as a bunch of folks back home were snarking on him.

Best hockey fan:

Most likely to carry the U.S. flag: Nordic athletes.

Best bounce-back: Lowell Bailey wasn’t happy with his Olympics so far, but posting the best result by an American man in Olympic biathlon will change that.

Biggest wipeout: The women’s 500-meter short-track final …

https://twitter.com/WillieCornblatt/status/433937989299761154

Strangest way to deal with back pain: “Changing poopy diapers,” says Noelle Pikus-Pace, who’s second after the first day of women’s skeleton. No, that just takes your mind off it.

Worst accident: A forerunner (track-tester, basically) at the bobsled venue ran into a track worker. Initial word: leg fractures, not life-threatening injuries.

Worst wardrobe malfunction: Come on, slopestyle skiers — save the baggy pants for the mall.

Strangest wardrobe: A couple of U.S. cross-country skiers opted for tank tops in the balmy weather, looking for a bit as if they were wearing nothing under their bibs.

Today’s weather in Pyeongchang, host of the 2018 Olympics: Cold

FULL TABLE

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medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 12

The judging at the Olympics is difficult to follow. Decisions are made for arcane reasons, and it’s hard for those of us watching at home to discern any consistency.

But enough about women’s hockey. Onto the medal updates …

CURRENT PACE

Original projections: Norway 39, USA 35, Canada 30, Russia 26, Germany 23, Austria 22, South Korea 15, Netherlands 14, France 12, Switzerland 11, Sweden 10

If the rest of the projections were to come true, the final medal count would be: Norway 34, USA 30, Canada 29, Russia 29, Austria 23, Netherlands 20, Germany 19, Sweden 13, Switzerland 13, France 12, South Korea 10

DOWN

Germany (-2 today, -4 overall): Strange to say Germany’s “down” when you see them ranked first at any news site that ranks countries by gold medals rather than total medals. And it’s not that a lot of German athletes are horribly disappointing. It’s just that they were projected for a lot of medals in particular events. Today it was doubles luge, where they picked up one (gold) instead of two, and Maria Hoefl-Riesch didn’t medal in the downhill.

South Korea (-1 today, -5 overall): Percentage-wise, they’re easily the disappointment of the Games so far. Projected for six medals at this point, and they’ve got one. Things aren’t going well in speedskating for the Korean team or …

USA (-1 today, -5 overall): Shani Davis was favored to win his third straight gold at 1,000 meters. He wasn’t even close to the podium. The better news: The snowboarders picked up the projected gold and bronze in the halfpipe, even if they weren’t exactly the projected names.

UP

Netherlands (+2 today, +6 overall): Always good in speedskating, but now it’s getting a little ridiculous. They’ve won eight of a possible nine medals in the men’s events, then two more in the women’s races. That’s all 10 of their medals.

Switzerland (+2 today, +2 overall): Right on target with two projected medals coming into today, then an unexpected gold (one of the two) and bronze in the women’s downhill.

RIGHT ON TARGET

Australia: Projected for one medal so far, a silver in women’s halfpipe. And that’s what they got.

HIGHLIGHTS

Funniest video: “Videobomb” doesn’t do justice to what Todd Lodwick did to NBC’s Randy Moss. The Nordic combined veteran walked behind Moss’s back when the commentator was doing a stand-up … about Lodwick. So Lodwick got in the camera shot behind him and punctuated the unsuspecting Moss’s report with a few gestures, shrugs and smiles. No one let Moss in on the joke until the end. See it yourself.

Best shot: See the curling recap to see how Canada’s Jennifer Jones hit something that would baffle a physicist. If only curling had style points …

Best finish: Switzerland-Latvia hockey … 0-0 … 0-0 … 0-0 … going to overti- … 1-0!!!

Best throw: Do Marissa Castelli and Simon Shnapir get credit for landing the first quadruple Salchow throw in Olympic pairs history? The official results say yes. Writers don’t seem to be sure. She made it around four times but two-footed the landing.

Best payoff from cattle sale: Kaitlyn Farrington’s parents sold cattle to finance her snowboarding career. Now she’s a gold medalist. And now she’s going to “dance her face off.” Sounds more painful than crashing in the halfpipe.

Best explanation of a tie: Olympic stats guru Bill Mallon tells us why it wouldn’t make any sense to do 1,000ths of a second in Alpine skiing.

Most pressing question for snowboarding pundits: In the slopestyle, some folks apparently complained that judges were giving more of a reward for clean landings than they were for big tricks. Is that also why Torah Bright is on the halfpipe podium and Hannah Teter isn’t?

Best explanation of unusual results: “(It) happens.” — Marit Bjoergen

Most quotable commentator: Johnny Weir. He and Tara Lipinski deduced that the French entry in the pairs competition was trying to portray an angel falling from heaven. “It’s not easy to grab someone by the hips after they’ve fallen from heaven.” Can he and Lipinski take over as American Idol judges?

Most well-rounded bobsledder: Johnny Quinn is a former pro football player and nationally ranked Halo player. You may know him from breaking down his bathroom door.

Mightiest fall: Norwegian cross-country skier Petter Northug dominated in Whistler four years ago — gold in the distinctly different events of team sprint and 50k classical, relay silver, and individual spring bronze. And he has been dominant in World Championships and the World Cup since then. This year? Dropped from his next event.

Worst officials: The referees didn’t cost the U.S. women’s hockey team the game against Canada today. The USA’s failure to match Canada’s intensity took care of that. But the officials just flat-out stunk.

Worst bureaucratic overreach: Take off that black armband, Norway!

Worst teammates: All is not well in German luge.

We knew it was warm in Sochi, but …: Maybe Lebanese skier Jackie Chamoun should put a shirt on. (OK, these photos were shot a while ago. But now people want to strip to show support for her. Anyway — the video in that link is absolutely NSFW.)

FULL TABLE

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medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality, Feb. 11

Here’s what I hate about the Olympics …

Or maybe it’s just what I hate about American sports culture, where all of these athletes are invisible in the years between each quadrennial glitzfest …

An athlete can strive for years and become the best in the world, winning all sorts of international competition. But those competitions are hardly mentioned in the U.S. media. It all comes down to the Olympics.

And we’re so cynical in this country. “Oh, that person in all the ads didn’t medal? Must be overhyped. Or a choker. Major fail.”

Some athletes can come back four years later to try again. Some only get one shot.

In Kikkan Randall’s case, she’s the best freestyle sprinter in the world. But cross-country alternates between freestyle and classical in each Olympics. So her best event comes every EIGHT years.

Eight years. And it comes down to 0.05 seconds.

That’s the margin that kept Randall out of the sprint semifinals. She led her heat — featuring sprint stars Marit Bjoergen and Denise Herrmann — most of the way. When the big two went past in the stretch, she still seemed to be line to advance as a “lucky loser.” Then Italy’s Gaia Vuerich stretched past her. Not lucky at all.

These things happen. Everyone has a bad day. Freestyle skiers and snowboarders wipe out on jumps they land 80 percent of the time. Downhill skiers miss a little bump in the snow that costs them precious time. Endurance athletes misjudge their pace and give out of gas in the stretch.

All you can do about it and remind people how many GOOD days someone like Randall has had. She’s not overhyped. She’s a champion.

And that’s why I’ve spent years pushing for more attention to the things these athletes do outside the Olympics. (Maybe it would help if people would read this blog between Olympics! Or if we’d get major TV coverage of big events. The former is probably a little easier.)

Another hyped American, Sarah Hendrickson, also will be ranked far down the list. But she’ll have several Olympics ahead of her. And unlike Randall, she knows why her body let her down today. She blew out her knee a few months ago and never felt comfortable on it. She’s one of her sport’s pioneers, beautifully symbolized by her jump to open the first Olympic women’s ski jump today. Not the farthest jump of the day, but it was breathtaking.

Randall is also a pioneer. She’s pushing the new-ish discipline of cross-country sprinting, representing a new wave of athletes and new wave of Americans with dignity and heart. Let that be her legacy.

And don’t let this be a much of Ameri-centric melancholy. Every time some scrappy American wins an unexpected medal, some other country’s version of Kikkan Randall or Danny Davis sees something slip away. Somewhere, some Russian and German luge sliders are wondering how Erin Hamlin figured out the Sochi track so well. The Czech Republic’s Gabriela Soukalova will rue the letdown that saw Slovenia’s Teja Gregorin get away from her. Canada’s Kaya Turski and the USA’s Keri Herman will have to be happy for their teammates in slopestyle. Norway’s Marit Bjoergen … well, look, she can’t win everything, right?

If those athletes are better celebrated in their host countries, not just every four years but each year, terrific. Maybe we’ll catch up in the USA one day.

On to today’s medal count update and other bests and worsts:

CURRENT PACE

The original medal projections were: Norway 39, USA 35, Canada 30, Russia 26, Germany 23, Austria 22, South Korea 15, Netherlands 14, France 12, Switzerland 11, Sweden 10

If the rest of the projections were to come true, the final medal count would be: Norway 34, USA 31, Canada 29, Russia 28, Austria 23, Germany 21, Netherlands 18, France 13, Sweden 13, South Korea 11, Switzerland 11

DOWN

USA (-4 today, -4 overall): Yeah, it was a rough day. Shaun White had the top score on halfpipe (95.75), but he did it in qualifications. The much-maligned halfpipe in the Russian mountains chewed up several contenders, including the Americans.

Then you had Randall, Hendrickson and Heather Richardson all missing projected medals. Richardson was a shaky pick, though — the 500 isn’t her best event.

The good news: Erin Hamlin’s luge breakthrough and Devin Logan’s sharp silver in slopestyle.

The wacky news: The U.S. curling teams remain winless through five total games, but they lost one in style giving up a record seven points in one end. U.S. skip Erika Brown put it this way: “We knew if she got three it was doomsville, so it didn’t matter if she got three or seven. We were all in at that point.” USA Curling’s Terry Kolesar sportingly tweeted a picture showing how it happened:

https://twitter.com/terry_usacurl/status/433294127888097280/photo/1

Russia (-2 today, +2 overall): Back to Earth a little bit with disappointments in cross-country skiing and ski jumping.

UP

Slovenia (+2 today, +1 overall): Great day at the Nordic venue, with bronze medals in biathlon and the women’s cross-country sprint.

RIGHT ON TARGET

Germany picked up the expected three medals today, with Carina Vogt’s ski jump making up for the lack of a sweep in women’s luge. Canada took two instead of one in women’s slopestyle and now has nine medals, one off the projected 10.

HIGHLIGHTS

Best read: My former colleague Erik Brady put Kikkan Randall’s day in focus: “This is the flip side of joy, what it feels like when the dream disappears.”

Best near-misses (USA): Sophie Caldwell powered her way to the cross-country sprint final, and Susan Dunklee got as high as fourth in the biathlon before missing some shots.

Best halfpipe-construction insult: Danny Davis snapped a picture of organizers trying to “polish the turd.”

Most studious athlete: Figure skater Jeremy Abbott, who put the USA in a early hole in the team event, has left the Olympic Village to have less fun and more focus. And you thought it was hard to tear yourself away from the keg parties to study in college.

Speaking of the Olympic Village: Watch for falling lampshades:

Best reason to set the DVR: The Colbert bump!

Best figure skating moment: German pair Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy deserve a medal for their Pink Panther routine.

Best crowd: Yeah, women’s ski jumping … no one will go for it …

Best “Where’s Waldo?” impression: Christine Brennan captured Sarah Hendrickson in flight. Or so she says.

Scariest moment: Ever wonder what would happen if Evel Knievel fell short of the landing ramp? Canadian freestyle skier Yuki Tsubota could probably answer.

Worst analysis: Shaun White lost? Gotta be the hair.

Worst injury news: Liechtenstein’s medal chances (yes, they exist — both the country and the medal chances) took a big hit when Tina Weirather withdrew from the downhill.

(No Storify recap today. They’re a little awkward, don’t you think?)

FULL TABLE

(corrected — earlier version duplicated men’s sprint results as women’s sprint results. Apologies to Slovenia.)

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