Category: medal projections

medal projections, olympic sports, track and field

2012 track and field projections: Big year for USA?

Posted on by Beau Dure

One danger in projecting the 2012 Games, particularly in track and field (or athletics), is that smaller countries end up underrepresented. In some cases, their athletes aren’t participating in the Diamond League or other notable meets.

Most U.S. athletes were in action in the non-championship year, many establishing themselves as medal favorites. That might change after the 2011 World Championships.

It’s hard to say the USA will win 33 medals in athletics, which is what the projection shows for now. The past few Games for the USA: Beijing 23, Athens 25, Sydney 16, Atlanta 23, Barcelona 30, Seoul 26. So 33 would be a record for the post-boycott era.

But the USA, for better or for worse, is the big dog heading into every Olympics. Americans simply aren’t the underdog in this sport. We’ll see a few upsets that keep the USA’s medal count down.

So remember that the projection is designed to point out the favorites — the USA, Kenya, Russia, Jamaica and a resurgent Germany.

If you missed the event-by-event projection, check out men’s running, women’s running and the field events.

 

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medal projections, olympic sports, track and field

2012: Field events

Posted on by Beau Dure

We’ve covered men’s and women’s running (and walking) events. Now we bring out the tape measure for the events you’ll see in great detail (long jump, high jump, shot put) and those you won’t (hammer throw).

ATHLETICS: Field events

Same three sources for 2010 performances: the ever-handy list of top performances, this terrific chart of Diamond League performances and the Diamond League site’s event recaps.

Continue reading →

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medal projections, olympic sports, track and field

2012 medal projections, men’s track: Bolt, then who?

Posted on by Beau Dure

The typical trend for men’s running events: The Americas (USA, Jamaica, other Caribbean) battle in the sprints, African nations split the distance events, and British hearts slowly break until they all watch Chariots of Fire and reminisce.

No real reason so far to think that’ll change, but the World Championships (Aug. 27-Sept. 4, Daegu, South Korea) might unearth some talented runners who haven’t earned Diamond League slots.

ATHLETICS: Men’s running events

Good sources for 2010 performances are the ever-handy list of top performances, this terrific chart of Diamond League performances and the Diamond League site’s event recaps. The Diamond League launched last year, combining the Golden League and a few other top meets, filling the gap between World Championship years.

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medal projections, olympic sports, track and field

2012 medal projections: Old Cold War battles, Jamaica heat up women’s running

Posted on by Beau Dure

Olympic athletes don’t just show up out of nowhere in an Olympic year, except maybe in a few secretive nations. Next year, we’ll have world championships in virtually everything, giving us a good chance to project what might happen in 2012.

We’re not waiting until then. We’re setting up some projections now, then revising as new results come in. It’s FiveThirtyEight with less math and no Rasmussen.

Today, it’s …

ATHLETICS: Women’s running events

We’re not Eurosnobs. Really. But isn’t “athletics” less awkward than “track and field”?

Besides, the marathon uses neither a track (except at the very end) or a field. And the shot put can be held anywhere.

The year’s top performances for each athlete are given in parentheses, but remember that some top athletes (Usain Bolt springs to mind) didn’t put much emphasis on running in a year with no Olympics or World Championships. (Source: IAAF)

We’re going to split this into running events and non-running events, then split it further by gender. We have a lot of ground to cover.

Continue reading →

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medal projections, olympic sports

2012 medal projections: Archery sweep is South Korea’s aim

Posted on by Beau Dure

You’ve seen the political projections. Now let’s get to the ones that matter.

The Olympics happen every four years. (Think of the Winter Games as the midterms.) The competition is a little more honest than the typical U.S. election, and you don’t have to sit through insulting political ads.

We’re going to go sport-by-sport through the Olympics and project winners in London. We’ll base it on past results. Like FiveThirtyEight.com, we’ll be able to update our projections based on recent data. In our case, though, that’ll be actual competition such as World Cups and World Championships, not polls. Another advantage we’ll have over FiveThirtyEight.com — less math.

Let’s get right to it with an event NBC probably won’t feature in great detail:

ARCHERY

First rule upon checking results: Ignore compound bows. Nothing personal, but they’re not in the Olympics. Seems a shame for the USA, because Americans tend to do pretty well with the high-tech stuff. What we’re dealing with here is the more traditional “recurve” bow.

Women’s individual: South Korean dominance ran into home advantage in Beijing, as China’s Zhang Juanjuan won gold ahead of 2004 champion Park Sung-Hyun. That ended a streak of six straight golds for South Korea, but the 2010 World Cup results give little sign that South Korea is going away. Four of the top six women in the rankings were South Korean, led by Ki Bo Bae in first and World Cup final champion Yun Ok-Hee in fourth. India has an outside shot with two contenders — Deepika Kumari and Dola Banerjee. Poland’s Justyna Mospinek is the best spoiler.

2008: Zhang Juanjuan (China), Park Sung-Hyun (South Korea), Yun Ok-Hee (South Korea).

Projection: South Korea, South Korea, India.

Top Americans: Khatuna Lorig (18th in World Cup), Jennifer Nichols (17th in world ranking)

Women’s team: South Korea could probably enter two teams and win medals here if the IOC allowed it. They’ve won all six women’s team events in modern Olympic history. India gets the edge for silver based on World Cup results. Bronze is wide open — 2008 silver medalist China, bronze medalist France, rankings-round runner-up Great Britain and Italy are among the contenders. We’d go with the hosts if their world ranking were any higher than 16th. Instead, we’ll take second-ranked China.

2008: South Korea, China, France.

Projection: South Korea, India, China.

Men’s individual: The USA has a decent shot, with ageless Vic Wunderle (silver, 2000) still going and Brady Ellison taking the World Cup prize in 2010. South Korea is deep, with three straight team golds. Italy has a good track record in the team event and a couple of top performers in the World Cup. But outsiders are a threat in this event — Mexico’s Juan Rene Serrano won the Beijing ranking round before finishing fourth in the knockout phase, and Ukraine’s Viktor Ruban squeaked through to gold past South Korea’s Park Kyung-Mo.

2008: Viktor Ruban (Ukraine), Park Kyung-Mo (South Korea), Bair Badenov (Russia).

Projection: USA, South Korea, Italy.

 

Top Americans: Ellison, Wunderle.

Men’s team: In Beijing, China made a stunning run from 12th in the ranking round to take bronze. We’ll chalk that up to home advantage and focus on the South Korea-Italy tandem frequently on top here. Bronze is open, with Ukraine getting the nod on current World Cup rankings and Ruban’s medal experience (2004 team bronze in addition to 2008 individual gold).

2008: South Korea, Italy, China.

Projection: South Korea, Italy, Ukraine.

TOTAL PROJECTION (Gold-silver-bronze, 2008 gold-silver-bronze, total change):
– South Korea: 5 medals (3-2-0, 2-2-1, no change)
– India: 2 medals (0-1-1, 0-0-0, +2)
– Italy: 2 medals (0-1-1, 0-1-0, +1)
– USA: 1 medal (1-0-0, 0-0-0, +1)
– China: 1 medal (0-0-1, 1-1-1, -2)
– Ukraine: 1 medal (0-0-1, 1-0-0, no change)
– Russia: 0 medals (-1)
– France: 0 medals (-1)

BIG EVENTS:
– World championships: July 2-10, Torino

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