Author: Beau Dure

The guy who wrote a bunch of soccer books and now runs a Gen X-themed podcast while substitute teaching and continuing to write freelance stuff.
basketball

NBA dumping divisions? Why not add promotion and relegation?

Posted on by Beau Dure

I’ve long figured the NBA was the U.S. pro sport best suited to a promotion/relegation system. It’s not hard to find a half-decent arena, the college system produces hundreds of noteworthy players who don’t make NBA rosters, several franchises sit in moribund mediocrity each year, and switching things up wouldn’t trample on history as it would in baseball, football or hockey.

Today, the NBA is struggling with the imbalance in its regional divisions and conferences. The playoffs could easily have some rotten teams. The suggested solutions are creative.

And all this is happening in a year in which teams are being accused of tanking for a shot at Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle or the other players expected to lead a deep draft class.

So why not go farther? Why not go to pro/rel in the NBA?

They’d solve the draft problem. The top three teams in the second division get promoted to the top division and get the top three picks in the draft.

That alone is a compelling reason to switch systems. And unlike the other U.S. pro leagues, the NBA offers no compelling reason not to go to pro/rel. No one has paid a franchise fee in years, so they shouldn’t have a lot of debt. All but two of the existing arenas were built after 2005, and the vast majority of teams are more than 10 years old.

And would anyone really miss the current system? Nah.

 

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medal projections, olympic sports

2014 medal projections (and team stats): Figure skating

Posted on by Beau Dure

Updated Jan. 14; minor update Jan. 21

Here’s what we know about the ever-changing world of figure skating:

– For the Japanese men, Russian women, Chinese pairs: Whoever makes team is a contender, even if Chinese pairs have slipped a bit.

– All these events have long-established favorites, but none moreso than ice dancing, where everyone else is expected to fight for bronze after the Americans and Canadians take gold and silver (not necessarily in that order).

– The team event is new and controversial. Some fans worry that their favorite skaters will wear themselves out competing in a team event and turning around for their regular competition. The event is rarely seen anywhere else, and a couple of countries are being allowed to bring skaters who didn’t qualify for individual events just so they can have a full team. See below for more fun with that.

– The major pre-Olympic events are done. We’ll keep an eye on the European and Four Continents championships to see if any high scores are posted, but the top skaters are focused on Sochi (and qualification). Some countries will have some tough competition to make the team, so we may eliminate some skaters who don’t make the cut.

The ISU bios are worth checking if you want any more detail about performance history or music selections.

I’ve given a “highest score” list in each event. That would be the highest scores recorded since the current scoring system went into effect — 2010-11 for ice dancing, 2003 for other events.

Away we go …

MEN

Gold: Patrick Chan (Canada)
Silver: Yuzuru Hanyu (Japan)
Bronze: Daisuke Takahashi (Japan)

Also considered: Evgeni Plushenko (Russia), anyone from Japan

2013 Grand Prix Final results: Hanyu, Chan, Nobunari Oda (Japan), Tatsuki Machida (Japan), Maxim Kovtun (Russia), Han Yan (China)

2013 World Championship top 8: Chan, Denis Ten (Kazakhstan), Javier Fernandez (Spain), Hanyu, Kevin Reynolds (Canada), Takahashi, Max Aaron (USA), Takahito Mura (Japan)

2010 Olympic medalists: Evan Lysacek (USA; out injured), Plushenko, Takahashi

Highest scores: Chan 295.27, Hanyu 293.25, Takahashi 276.72, Fernandez 274.87, Ten 266.48, Machida 265.38, Oda 262.98, Plushenko 261.23

WOMEN (or “LADIES” if you prefer)

Gold: Mao Asada (Japan)
Silver: Yuna Kim (South Korea)
Bronze: Ashley Wagner (USA)

Also considered: Gracie Gold (USA), Julia Lipnitskaia (Russia), Carolina Kostner (Italy), Adelina Sotnikova (Russia)

2013 Grand Prix Final results: Asada, Julia Lipnitskaia (Russia), Wagner, Elena Radionova (Russia), Adelina Sotnikova (Russia), Anna Pogorilaya (Russia)

2013 World Championship top 8: Kim, Asada, Kanako Murakami (Japan), Wagner, Gracie Gold (USA), Zijun Li (China), Kaetlyn Osmond (Canada)

2010 Olympic medalists: Kim, Asada, Joannie Rochette (Canada; retired)

Highest scores: Kim 228.56, Asada 207.59, Rochette 202.64, Ando 201.34, Akiko Suzuki (Japan) 199.58, Lipnitskaia 198.23, Irina Slutskaya (Russia; retired) 198.06, Kostner 197.89

PAIRS

Gold: Volosozhar/Trankov (Russia)
Silver: Savchenko/Szolkowy (Germany)
Bronze: Duhamel/ Radford (Canada)

Also considered: Pang/Tong (China), Peng/Zhang (China)

2013 Grand Prix Final results: Savchenko/Szolkowy, Volosozhar/Trankov, Pang/Tong, Peng/Zhang, Duhamel/ Radford, Moore-Towers/Moscovitch (Canada)

2013 World Championship top 8: Volosozhar/Trankov, Savchenko/Szolkowy, Duhamel/ Radford, Moore-Towers/Moscovitch, Pang/Tong, Kavaguti/Smirnov (Russia), Bazarova/Larionov (Russia), James/Cipres (France)

2010 Olympic medalists: Shen/Zhao (China; retired), Pang/Tong, Savchenko/Szolkowy

Highest scores: Volosozhar/Trankov 237.71, Savchenko/Szolkowy 227.03, Shen/Zhao 216.57, Pang/Tong 213.98, Kavaguti/Smirnov 213.15, Moore-Towers/Moscovitch 208.45, Duhamel/Radford 204.56, Totmianina/Marinin (Russia; retired) 204.58

ICE DANCE

Gold: Davis/White (USA)
Silver: Virtue/Moir (Canada)
Bronze: Bobrova/Soloviev (Russia)

Also considered: Cappellini/Lanotte (Italy), Ilinykh/Katsalapov (Russia), Pechalat/Bourzat (France), Weaver/Poje (Canada)

2013 Grand Prix Final results: Davis/White, Virtue/Moir, Pechalat/Bourzat, Bobrova/Soloviev, Weaver/Poje, Cappellini/Lanotte

2013 World Championship top 8: Davis/White, Virtue/Moir, Bobrova/Soloviev, Cappellini/Lanotte, Weaver/Poje, Pechalat/Bourzat, Chock/Bates (USA), Shibutani/Shibutani (USA)

2010 Olympic medalists: Virtue/Moir, Davis/White, Domnina/Shabalin (Russia; retired)

Highest scores (since program revision): Davis/White 191.35, Virtue/Moir 190.00, Weaver/Poje 175.23, Pechalat/Bourzat 173.18, Ilinykh/Katsalapov 171.89, Bobrova/Soloviev 169.23, Cappellini/Lanotte 168.49, Chock/Bates 164.91

TEAM

Gold: Canada
Silver: Russia
Bronze: USA

Also considered: France, Japan

2013 Team Trophy: USA, Canada, Japan, Russia, China, France

2013 World Championships (simulated): Canada, USA, Russia, France, Italy

Qualifying points: Canada, Russia, USA, Japan, Italy, France, China, Germany, Ukraine, Britain

Simulated team event? Why, yes! Here’s how it works:

The Olympic figure skating team event format hasn’t been tried elsewhere as far as I know. The World Team Trophy has two skaters in each individual event; the Olympic format will have one. After the short programs, the teams will be trimmed from 10 to five.

The scoring is similar, though.

So suppose we used the 2013 World Championships results and pretended that was a team event?

One problem at the outset: Only six countries qualified in all four events at Worlds. That’s Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Russia, USA. Three-event countries: China (no dance), Japan (no pairs), Poland (no women), Ukraine (no pairs), Britain (no men).

Take out Poland, and those are the 10 countries that have qualified for the Olympic team event. So we’ll just assign 1 point (last place) wherever a country has no athlete. In pairs, where we’re lacking Japanese and Ukrainian entries, we’ll give each of them 1.5 points.

Here’s what we have:

Short programs

Men: Canada (Chan) 10, Japan (Takahashi) 9, France (Joubert) 8, USA (Aaron) 7, China (Song) 6, Germany (Liebers) 5, Russia (Kovtun) 4, Ukraine (Godorozha) 3, Italy (Bacchini) 2, Britain (none) 1

Women: Italy (Kostner) 10, Japan (Murakami) 9, Canada (Osmond) 8, USA (Wagner) 7, Russia (Sotnikova) 6, France (Meite) 5, China (Li) 4, Ukraine (Popova) 3, Britain (McCorkell) 2, Germany (Weinzierl) 1

Pairs: Russia 10, Canada 9, Germany 8, China 7, France 6, Italy 5, USA 4, Britain 3, Japan 1.5, Ukraine 1.5

Dance: USA 10, Canada 9, Russia 8, France 7, Italy 6, Britain 5, Germany 4, Ukraine 3, Japan 2, China 1

Totals after short program
Canada 10+8+9+9 = 36
USA 7+7+4+10 = 28
Russia 4+6+10+8 = 28
France 8+5+6+7 = 26
Italy 2+10+5+6 = 23
—
Japan 9+9+1.5+2 = 21.5
China 6+4+7+1 = 18
Germany 5+1+8+4 = 18
Britain 1+2+3+5 = 11
Ukraine 3+3+1.5+3 = 10.5

Free skates

Men: Canada 10, USA 9, France 8, Russia 7, Italy 6

Women: Italy 10, USA (Gold) 9, Russia (Tuktamysheva) 8, Canada 7, France 6

Pairs: Russia 10, Canada 9, France 8, USA 7, Italy 6

Dance: USA 10, Canada 9, Italy 8, Russia 7, France 6

Free skate totals
Canada 10+7+9+9 = 35
USA 9+9+7+10 = 35
Russia 7+8+10+7 = 32
Italy 6+10+6+8 = 30
France 8+6+8+6 = 28

Overall
Canada 36+35 = 71
USA 28+35 = 63
Russia 28+32 = 60
France 26+28 = 54
Italy 30+23 = 53

BIOS

Men

Max Aaron (USA): Former USA developmental hockey player was seventh in 2013 World Championships and narrowly missed out on 2013 GP Final. Skating to Bizet, among others. High score: 238.36 (Worlds 2013).

Patrick Chan (Canada): Three-time world champion (2011-13) after two runner-up finishes. Fifth in 2010 Olympics. Third and second in last two GP Finals. Parents immigrated from China. Skating to Rachmaninov, Vivaldi and Corelli. High score 295.27 (Bompard 2013).

Javier Fernandez (Spain): You’ll hear a lot of “first Spanish skater to …” do pretty much anything. Huge in 2012-2013: fourth at GP Final, Euro champion, third at Worlds. Skating music includes Peter Gunn. High score: 274.87 (Euro 2013).

Yuzuru Hanyu (Japan): Third in 2012 World Championships; fourth in 2013. Moved to Canada to train with Brian Orser and others. Second in 2012 GP Final; first in 2013. Skating to Gary Moore and Nino Rota. High score 293.25 (GP Final 2013).

Brian Joubert (France): 2007 world champion hasn’t retired but missed GP season. High score 244.58 (Worlds 2012).

Maxim Kovtun (Russia): Edging into senior competition at 2013 World Championship (17th) and two second-place GP finishes. Skating to Pepe Romero and Tchaikovsky. High score 240.34 (Rostelecom 2013).

Tatsuki Machida (Japan): Grand Prix success but no major events yet. Trains in USA. Skating to East of Eden soundtrack and Stravinsky’s Firebird. High score 265.38 (Skate America 2013).

Nobunari Oda (Japan): Hasn’t finished above sixth in World Championships or Olympics but has come on strong since 2012 knee injury. Third in 2013 GP Final. Descended from 16th century Japanese warlord Nobunaga Oda. Skating to John Barry’s Cotton Club and Rossini’s William Tell Overture. High score 262.98 (Nebelhorn 2013).

Evgeni Plushenko (Russia): Retired after winning 2006 gold (and 2002 silver), came back to take silver in 2010, feuded with federation, got a disc replaced in his back … and still a possibility for Sochi. World champion in 2001, 2003 and 2004. Hasn’t bothered much with GP events since 2005. Free skate music listed as “The Best of Plushenko.” High score 261.23 (Euro 2012).

Kevin Reynolds (Canada): Wild card with massive jumping ability and AC/DC in his short program. High score: 250.55 (Four Continents 2013).

Daisuke Takahashi (Japan): 2010 Olympic bronze medalist and world champion. Second in 2012 World Championships. 2012 GP Final winner. Missed 2013 GP Final with injury. Skating to Samuragochi and The Beatles. High score: 276.72 (World Team Trophy 2012)

Denis Tan (Kazakhstan): Descended from Korean general. Illness wrecked 2013 GP season. 2013 World Championship runner-up is far and away best finish. Trains with Frank Carroll in California. High score: 266.48 (Worlds 2013).

Han Yan (China): 2012 junior world champion. Won 2013 Cup of China. Music mix includes Fats Waller and The Blue Danube. High score 245.62 (China 2013).

Women

Miki Ando (Japan): Fifth in 2010 Olympics, 2011 world champion, then took time off to have a baby. Skating to Sinatra’s My Way and Stravinsky’s Firebird. High score: 201.34 (Four Continents 2011)

Mao Asada (Japan): 2008 and 2010 world champion. 2010 Olympic silver medalist. Skating to Chopin and Rachmaninov. High score 207.59 (NHK 2013).

Yuna Kim (South Korea): 2010 Olympic gold medalist. 2009 and 2013 world champion. Competed little in GP events since 2009 for a variety of reasons (feud with former coach, lobbying for 2018 Olympic bid, injury). Made 2013-14 season debut in Zagreb with a score of 204.49. Skating to Send in the Clowns and Astor Piazzolla. High score 228.56 (Olympics 2010).

Julia Lipnitskaia (Russia): 15-year-old hasn’t skated in major events yet. Moved to senior competition in 2012 with second and third in two GP events (missed final with concussion). Won two GP events in 2013. Skating to Mark Minkov and John Williams (Schindler’s List soundtrack). High score 198.23 (Skate Canada 2013).

Carolina Kostner (Italy): Disastrous free skate in 2010 Olympics was an outlier. 2012 world champion; second in 2013. Second and third in 2013 GP events; didn’t qualify for final. Skating to Dvorak and Rimsky-Korsakov. High score: 197.89 (Worlds 2013).

Mirai Nagasu (USA): Fourth in 2010 Olympics. Hasn’t competed in World Championships since then. Skating to Gershwin and a James Bond medley. High score 190.15 (Olympics 2010).

Anna Pogorilaya (Russia): 15-year old debuted in Grand Prix with win at Cup of China. Skating to Kawai and something from Hans Zimmer’s Pirates of the Caribbean soundtrack. High score 184.69 (Bompard 2013).

Elena Radionova (Russia): Will turn 15 in January 2014. Finished third and second in first two GP events, then fourth in final. Skating to Anna Karenina and Frida soundtracks. High score 191.81 (NHK 2013).

Adelina Sotnikova (Russia): Ninth in 2013 World Championship; second in 2013 Euro championship. Skating to Bizet and Saint-Saens. High score 193.99 (Euro 2013).

Akiko Suzuki (Japan): Third in 2012 Worlds and first at 2013 World Team Trophy. Also third at 2012 GP Final; barely failed to qualify in 2013. Free skate: Phantom of the Opera. High score: 199.58 (World Team Trophy 2013).

Ashley Wagner (USA): Fourth and fifth in last two World Championships; second and third in GP finals. Skating to Pink Floyd (Shine On You Crazy Diamond) and Prokofiev. High score 194.37 (Bompard 2013).

Pairs

Meagan Duhamel / Eric Radford (Canada): Paired up after 2010 Olympics (neither skater competed). Moved up through three World Championships: seventh, fifth, third. Radford composed short program music Tribute for former coach Paul Wirtz, who died of lymphoma in 2006. Long program includes Danny Elfman Alice in Wonderland music. High score: 204.56 (Worlds 2013).

Yuko Kavaguti / Alexander Smirnov (Russia): Two-time World Championship medalists placed fourth in 2010 Olympics. Smirnov’s knee injury ruled them out of the GP season and put their Sochi status in doubt. If they make it back, you’ll hear some Borodin and Tchaikovsky. Kavaguti is on her third country, having competed in singles for Japan and once skating at the U.S. Championships. High score: 213.15 (Euro 2013)

Kirsten Moore-Towers / Dylan Moscovitch (Canada): Paired since 2009. Best major finish was fourth in 2013 World Championships. Skating to Raphael Beau, Max Steiner and Nino Rota. High score: 208.45 (Skate America 2013).

Qing Pang / Jian Tong (China): 2010 Olympic silver medalists and world champions. Dropped over next three World Championships: third, fourth, fifth. Third in 2012 and 2013 GP Finals. Skating to Ennio Morricone and something from Les Mis. High score: 213.98 (GP Final 2013).

Cheng Peng / Hao Zhang (China): Zhang and Dan Zhang was the 2006 silver medalists, back when Peng was eight years old. Peng’s bio gives her occupation as “middle school student.” Pair is progressing – high score: 197.37 (GP Final 2013).

Aliona Savchenko / Robin Szolkowy (Germany): Four-time world championships (2008, 09, 11, 12), runners-up in 2010 and 2013. Olympic bronze medalists in 2010. GP Final winners in 2011 and 2013. Skating to Chris de Burgh (no, not The Lady in Red or Don’t Pay the Ferryman) and The Nutcracker. High score 227.03 (GP Final 2013).

Tatiana Volosozhar / Maxim Trankov (Russia): Eighth and seventh with different partners in 2010 Olympics. Teamed up the next year and finished second, second and first in next three World Championships. GP Final winners in 2012; second in 2013. Skating to Khatchaturian and Jesus Christ Superstar. High score 237.71 (Skate America 2013).

Dance

Ekaterina Bobrova / Dmitri Soloviev (Russia): Best World Championship finish is third in 2013. Free dance to Vivaldi and Mozart. High score 169.25 (Euro 2013).

Anna Cappellini / Luca Lanotte (Italy): Haven’t yet hit podium at World Championships or GP Finals. Skating to 42nd Street and Barber of Seville. High score 168.49 (Skate America 2013).

Madison Chock / Evan Bates (USA): Each skater won a world junior championship with a different partner, then paired up in 2011. Decent 2012-13 season, seventh in World Championships. Third in two GP events in 2013. Skating to music from Les Mis. High score 164.91 (World Team Trophy 2013).

Meryl Davis / Charlie White (USA): Traded titles back and forth with Virtue and Moir, who train with them and share coaches. 2010 silver medalists, then world champions in 2011 and 2013. Back-to-back GP Final winners. Paired up in their tweens in 1997. Skating to Frederic Loewe and Rimsky-Korsakov. High score 191.35 (GP Final 2013).

Elena Ilinykh / Nikita Katsalapov (Russia): 2010 world junior champions; fifth in 2012 World Championships for best major result. Seventh on 2013 GP circuit, just missing GP Final. Free dancing to Swan Lake. High score 171.89 (Bompard 2013).

Nathalie Pechalat / Fabian Bourzat (France): Best World Championship finish is third in 2012. Also third in three straight GP Finals. Skating to a mix of tunes, highlighted by Big Spender. High score 173.18 (Worlds 2012).

Maia Shibutani / Alex Shibutani (USA): Siblings took World Championship bronze in 2011 but haven’t duplicated those results. Third in two GP events in 2013. Skating to the Michaels — Buble and Jackson. High score 163.79 (Worlds 2011).

Tessa Virtue / Scott Moir (Canada): See Davis/White, to whom they’re inextricably linked. Won gold in 2010 and world title in 2012; second to Davis/White in 2011 and 2013. Paired up in 1997. Skating to Ella Fitzgerald/Louis Armstrong, Alexandre Glazunov and a bit of Skriabin. High score 190.00 (GP Final 2013).

Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje (Canada): Weaver was born in Texas but moved to Canada to train with Poje and got her citizenship in 2009. Top five in last three World Championships. Skating to Harry Warren, Gideon Kramer and Astor Piazzolla. High score 175.23 (Skate Canada 2013).

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olympic sports, winter sports

Big winter weekend for USA

Posted on by Beau Dure

No, I’m not talking about the fact that every tree and power line in the Mid-Atlantic is covered with ice right now. I’m talking about skiing, sliding and skating, where a lot of things went right for U.S. athletes two months and change before Sochi:

– Figure skating: Meryl White and Charlie Davis are hardly a surprise in ice dancing, though they have tough rivals for gold in Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir. But the record they set in winning the Grand Prix Final was a grand statement. (NBC)

Ashley Wagner also made it to the podium — perhaps all isn’t lost for the non-dancing U.S. skaters in this Olympic year after all. But she’s not totally happy with her skating, and rival Yuna Kim wasn’t at the Final. (NBC)

– Speedskating: 1-2 for Heather Richardson and Brittany Bowe. Get used to it. (NBC) Shani Davis lost his win streak but took third, and Richardson took another podium place as well. (NBC) And there was a surprise win for Joey Mantia. (NBC)

– Bobsled: Yes, it was on a home track, but this was total domination. Steve Holcomb won his third and fourth straight races. The U.S. women finished 1-3-4 in one race and 1-2-2 in another, with Lolo Jones and Lauryn Williams getting medals. (NBC with video of Day 1; NBC with video of Day 2; USA TODAY)

– Skeleton: Noelle Pikus-Pace said “disqualify THIS” and won in Park City. Matt Antoine took third. (NBC with video)

– Luge: Chris Mazdzer won the first World Cup medal for a U.S. man since 2007.  (NBC)

– Alpine skiing: Ted Ligety, as usual, won the giant slalom. Bode Miller’s second place was a little less expected. (NBC with video; USA TODAY)

And Lindsey Vonn got partway back with each race — 40th, 11th, fifth. (NBC with video | USA TODAY)

Not all is well on the Alpine team — after Ligety, Miller, Vonn and slalom specialist Mikaela Shiffrin, the rest of the U.S. skiers haven’t been competitive. But this weekend might make my ongoing medal projections look conservative for the USA.

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medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

2014 medal projections: Ski jumping

Posted on by Beau Dure

Updated Jan. 14

Finally, women have broken down the gender barrier that kept them from getting Olympic status for the times they fling themselves through the air and land on the snow.

The USA fought for this event for a long time (another Olympic story I covered for some time). They’re also quite good at it, especially if Sarah Hendrickson heals in time.

Away we go …

LARGE HILL

Gold: Gregor Schlierenzauer (Austria)
Silver: Kamil Stoch (Poland)
Bronze: Simon Ammann (Switzerland)

Also considered: Anders Bardal (Norway), Richard Freitag (Germany), Severin Freund (Germany), Anders Jacobsen (Norway), Noriaki Kasai (Japan), Peter Prevc (Slovenia)

2013 World Championship top 8: Stoch, Prevc, Jacobsen, Wolfgang Loitzl (Austria), Jan Matura (Czech Republic), Freitag, Ammann, Schlierenzauer

2010 Olympic medalists: Ammann, Adam Malysz (Poland), Schlierenzauer

NORMAL HILL

Gold: Anders Bardal (Norway)
Silver: Gregor Schlierenzauer (Austria)
Bronze: Severin Freund (Germany)

Also considered: Richard Freitag (Germany), Anders Jacobsen (Norway), Andreas Kofler (Austria), Thomas Morgenstern (Austria), Kamil Stoch (Poland)

2013 World Championship top 8: Bardal, Schlierenzauer, Peter Prevc (Slovenia), Freund, Morgenstern, Freitag, Taku Takeuchi (Japan), Stoch

2010 Olympic medalists: Simon Ammann (Switzerland), Adam Malysz (Poland), Schlierenzauer

TEAM (MEN’S LARGE HILL)

Gold: Austria
Silver: Germany
Bronze: Slovenia

Also considered: Norway, Poland

World Cup (Nation Cup) 2012-13 top 8: Norway, Austria, Germany, Slovenia, Poland, Japan, Czech Republic, Russia

2013 World Championship top 8: Austria, Germany, Poland, Norway, Japan, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Italy

2010 Olympic medalists: Austria, Germany, Norway

WOMEN

Gold: Sara Takanashi (Japan)
Silver: Sarah Hendrickson (USA)
Bronze: Irina Avvakumova (Russia)

Also considered: Coline Mattel (France), Anette Sagen (Norway), Jacqueline Seifriedsberger (Austria), Carina Vogt (Germany)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Takanashi, Hendrickson, Mattel, Seifriedsberger, Sagen, Katja Pozun (Slovenia), Vogt, Lindsey Van (USA)

2013 World Championship top 8: Hendrickson, Takanashi, Seifriedsberger, Mattel, Vogt, Jessica Jerome (USA), Sagen, Evelyn Insam (Italy)

BIOS

Men

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Gregor Schlierenzauer (Austria), Anders Bardal (Norway), Kamil Stoch (Poland), Severin Freund (Germany), Anders Jacobsen (Norway), Robert Kranjec (Slovenia), Peter Prevc (Slovenia), Richard Freitag (Germany)

Simon Ammann (Switzerland): In 2002, the Harry Potter lookalike stunned everyone by winning both gold medals out of nowhere. He won a bit more, then plunged into obscurity and did nothing of note in 2006. He won gold and silver in the 2007 World Championships and found consistency, winning the 2010 World Cup title. And he’s 4-for-4 in Olympic individual ski jumps in North America, winning twice more in 2010.

Anders Bardal (Norway): World Cup season champion in 2012 after never finishing higher than fifth in previous 11 seasons. Second in 2013 and won normal hill World Championship.

Richard Freitag (Germany): Youngster was sixth in 2012 World Cup at age 20. Sixth in each event in 2013 World Championships.

Severin Freund (Germany): Career-best fourth in 2013 World Cup season. Has not yet competed in Olympics.

Anders Jacobsen (Norway): Second in 2007 World Cup but hasn’t been higher than fifth since.

Peter Prevc (Slovenia): Competed in 2010 Olympics at age 17, placing seventh on normal hill. Breakthrough in 2013 with two World Championship medals and a couple of World Cup podiums on the flying hill in his home country.

Gregor Schlierenzauer (Austria): Won the 2009 World Cup title at age 19. Second overall in 2010 and 2012, then first again in 2013. Two bronze medals in 2010, then large hill World Championship in 2011. Not afraid to speak up — he refused to jump in the first event of the 2014 World Cup season in protest over the decision to proceed in strong winds. Then he won the next one, making up for a poor first jump with a whopper in the second round. He’s the favorite.

Kamil Stoch (Poland): Made it to top 10 on World Cup circuit in 2011, then moved up to fifth, then third. Continued his breakout with World Championship gold on the large hill.

Women

Sarah Hendrickson (USA): 2012 World Cup champion at age 17; second in 2013. Won 2013 World Championship. In 13 World Cup events in 2012, won nine and finished second three times. Faces a tough timeline to come back from a knee injury suffered in August.

Daniela Iraschko (Austria): One of the rare 30somethings in this sport; missed much of 2013 season with injury. 2011 world champion.

Coline Mattel (France): Fifth in 2009 World Championships — at age 13. Third in 2011, fourth in 2013. Inconsistent in 2012 World Cup season but much better in 2013.

Anette Sagen (Norway): Won five straight Continental Cup titles (2005-2009) before women earned World Cup status. World Championship best is third in 2009.

Jacqueline Seifriedsberger (Austria): Breakout year in 2013 – fourth in World Cup, third in World Championship.

Sara Takanashi (Japan): 2013 World Cup champion at age 16. Sees Hendrickson as an “icon rather than a rival.”

Lindsey Van (USA): First world champion (2009) in women’s ski jumping and one of the pioneers who led the fight for its inclusion in the Olympics. Injuries have held her back in recent years.

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medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

2014 medal projections: Nordic combined

Posted on by Beau Dure

Updated Jan. 14

In 2010, USA TODAY dispatched me to Whistler Olympic Park nearly every day. The biggest story I was supposed to follow: The USA looked likely to get its first medal in Nordic combined, the sport in which athletes test themselves on the ski jump and the cross-country course.

They did indeed get that first medal. Then their first team medal. Then their first gold.

And it’s a fun event to watch. The cross-country race start order is determined by the ski jump results. The farther back you are in the ski jump, the longer you have to wait while the leader leaves you in the dust.

The bad news: The USA is nowhere near that strength this time around. Two-thirds of the old guard is still around — Bill Demong and Todd Lodwick put off retirement a little longer — but they’re not top contenders. That said, the team can still be in the mix — Demong, Lodwick and the Fletcher brothers (Taylor and Bryan) were third in the World Championships. Each Fletcher has had a moment or two of World Cup success.

Away we go …

LARGE HILL/10k RACE

Gold: Eric Frenzel (Germany)
Silver: Wilhelm Dinifl (Austria)
Bronze: Jason Lamy-Chappuis (France)

Also considered: Bernhard Gruber (Austria), Mikko Kokslien (Norway), Akito Watabe (Japan)

2013 World Championship top 8: Frenzel, Gruber, Lamy-Chappuis, Watabe (Japan), Hideaki Nagai (Japan), Denifl, Sebastien Lacroix (France), Magnus Moan (Norway)

2010 Olympic medalists: Bill Demong (USA), Johnny Spillane (USA), Gruber

NORMAL HILL/10k RACE

Gold: Jason Lamy-Chappuis (France)
Silver: Eric Frenzel (Germany)
Bronze: Mikko Kokslien (Norway)

Also considered: Bernhard Gruber (Austria), Alessandro Pittin (Italy), Akito Watabe (Japan)

2013 World Championship top 8: Lamy-Chappuis, Mario Stecher (Austria), Bjoern Kircheisen (Germany), Frenzel, Haavard Klemetsen (Norway), Taihei Kato (Japan), Marjan Jelenko (Slovenia), Christoph Bieler (Austria)

2010 Olympic medalists: Lamy Chappuis, Bill Demong (USA), Alessandro Pittin (Italy)

TEAM (LARGE HILL/4x5k)

Gold: Germany
Silver: Norway
Bronze: France

Also considered: Austria, Japan, USA

World Cup Nation Cup 2012-13 top 8: Germany, Norway, Austria, France, Japan, USA, Czech Republic, Slovenia

2013 World Championship top 8: France, Norway, USA, Japan, Austria, Germany, Italy, Finland

2010 Olympic medalists: Austria, USA, Germany

BIOS

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Eric Frenzel (Germany), Jason Lamy-Chappuis (France), Akito Watabe (Japan), Bernhard Gruber (Austria), Magnus Moan (Norway), Tino Edelmann (Germany), Mikko Kokslien (Norway), Wilhelm Denifl (Austria)

Wilhelm Denifl (Austria): Career-best eighth in 2013, his 14th World Cup season. Never been to Olympics in all that time. Better on large hill, including third behind Gruber and Frenzel in 2013 World Cup event.

Tino Edelmann (Germany): Several World Championship medals, two in individual events. Top 10 in the last four World Cup seasons.

Eric Frenzel (Germany): 2013 World Cup champion. 2011 World Championships: 1st and 3rd. 2013 Worlds: 1st and 4th.

Bernhard Gruber (Austria): Best World Cup season finish is fourth. But he has an Olympic medal and a World Championship medal.

Jason Lamy-Chappuis (France): American-born. 2010 gold medalist; World Cup champion three straights years (2010-2012). Second in 2013 World Cup. Gold and bronze in individual events in 2013 World Championships.

Björn Kircheisen (Germany): Third in 2003 and 2006 World Cups. Fifth in 2012, 11th in 2013. Three-time Olympian. Several scattered World Championship medals.

Mikko Kokslien (Norway): Second in 2011 World Cup; third in 2012.

Magnus Moan (Norway): Silver and bronze at 2006 Games. Second overall in 2006 and 2009 World Cups; slipped to 12th in 2011 and 2012 but has a few wins.

Alessandro Pittin (Italy): Seventh in 2012 World Cup, buoyed by three straight wins at same venue (normal hill). Competed little in 2013 World Cup season.

Mario Stecher (Austria): Going for fifth Olympics. Individual World Championship silver medals in 1999 and 2013.

Akito Watabe (Japan): Second in 2012 World Cup, third in 2013.

1
soccer

World Cup qualifying: Is there another way?

Posted on by Beau Dure

Mexico is in the World Cup, and Egypt is not. And that seems unfair.

It’s not that simple, of course. One incorrect meme making the rounds: Egypt won seven games and Mexico won only four. Actually, Mexico won 10, sweeping all six of their third-round games to get to the Hexagonal.

Still, we can shake our heads at the notion that Mexico feasted on New Zealand in a winner-take-all playoff while Egypt’s reward for a perfect round-robin was a playoff with Ghana. Shouldn’t we give teams more of a fair shake?

Sure. And we can also turn the last stage of World Cup qualifying into a worldwide spectacle. And clean up a few things along the way. Here’s the proposal:

1. Bag the early playoff rounds for the minnows in Africa, Asia, Oceania and CONCACAF. Cut the small teams out of Europe’s group play. Go to a Davis Cup system in which the minnows play in zones, with the winners advancing to a promotion/relegation playoff against teams that finish last in qualifying.

2. Make six-team groups the norm. Have four in Africa, six in Europe, two in Asia/Oceania and three in the Americas (see below). The top team in each of these 15 groups automatically qualifies for the Cup, along with the host nation. (That’s 16 teams.)

3. The last-place team in each group faces the promotion/relegation playoff against the best of the minnows.

4. The second-place and third-place team in each group, along with the Oceania winner, advances to a global playoff round. That’s 31 teams. Add one more wild card: The highest-ranked team that hasn’t already advanced. Seed these teams into eight four-team groups. These groups would play single round-robins. Each team gets one home game, one away game and one neutral-site game. Top two in each group (16 total) make the Cup.

ADVANTAGES

– We’re not tallying up goal difference against San Marino as a possible tiebreaker.

– The rest of the world has achievable goals. The World Cup final (the technical term for the 32-team extravaganza) may be out of reach, but promotion might be attainable. And the best of the minnows would still have a chance to face the sharks in meaningful playoffs.

– Last-place teams have incentive to play out the string.

– Standardization. No more unfair comparisons across groups to determine the best or worst second-place finisher in Europe.

– The qualifying process doesn’t drag out forever. It’s 10-13 games for everyone.

– More teams can earn spots in intercontinental play, so the continental quotas will be less meaningful.

– More teams get a second chance to qualify.

– Those neutral-site final games would be immense.

CONSIDERATIONS

– It’s a shame to lose the grand 10-team double round-robin in South America. It’s also unfair to cut South America down to one six-team group. One alternative: Have an eight-team group with the top two automatically advancing.

– Dividing the initial groups among continents will always be controversial. To see who could be in the main qualifying pool and who could be out under this scheme, let’s use the FIFA rankings — they’re flawed, but they’ll give us a rough idea for this hypothetical. We’ll say it’s 2018, so Russia gets the automatic bid as host.

Main pool

Includes a few ranking numbers to show which teams we’re getting. For Europe and Africa, the last six are split off with slashes.

Europe (6 groups): Spain, Germany, Portugal, Italy, Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, England, Croatia, Ukraine, France, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Denmark, Sweden, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Serbia, Romania, Scotland, Armenia, Turkey, Hungary, Austria, Iceland, Montenegro, Norway, Wales, Albania, Slovakia (overall rank: 60) // Israel (62), Finland (64), Ireland (67), Bulgaria (76), Poland (78), Belarus (82)

Americas (3 groups): Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay, Brazil, USA, Chile, Mexico, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama, Peru, Honduras, Cuba, Paraguay, Bolivia (69), Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago (79). (If you prefer the Elo rating, substitute El Salvador and Jamaica for Cuba and Haiti.)

Africa (4 groups): Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Algeria, Nigeria, Egypt, Cape Verde Islands, Mali, Tunisia, Cameroon, Burkina Faso, South Africa, Libya (63), Senegal, Guinea, Zambia, Sierra Leone, Morocco, Togo (77) // Gabon (80), Congo DR (83), Congo (84), Uganda (86), Angola (89), Ethiopia (93). (If you prefer Elo, then put Benin and Kenya in place of Sierra Leone and Congo.)

Asia/Oceania (2 groups): Iran, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Uzbekistan, Jordan, UAE, Oman, New Zealand (91), China (93), Saudi Arabia (99), Qatar (103). (Elo would argue for Kuwait ahead of Qatar.)

Top Zonal Pools

Europe: Only 16 countries left, so everyone on down to San Marino should get into the mix. Top teams: Macedonia (84), Northern Ireland (90), Azerbaijan (95), Estonia (96), Moldova (97), Georgia (101), Lithuania (102), Latvia (119).

Americas: For now, it’s all CONCACAF, starting with Jamaica (81), Dominican Republic (88), El Salvador (91), Antigua and Barbuda (109), Canada (114), Guatemala (115). We could make three four-team groups by adding Grenada (130), Suriname, St. Kitts and Nevis, Guyana, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Puerto Rico (152).

Asia/Oceania: Two groups from Kuwait (106), Iraq, North Korea, Tajikistan, Bahrain, New Caledonia (122), Lebanon, Afghanistan (129).

Africa: Four good four-team groups out of Botswana (98), Benin, Niger, Liberia, Zimbabwe, Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Burundi, Kenya, Mozambique, Malawi, Tanzania, Namibia, Rwanda, Sudan, Gambia (134).

Third tier

Americas: Belize (157) and 14 teams ranked 160 or worse.

Africa: Lesotho (138) is the best of the 14 remaining nations, some of whom will struggle to field teams due to political reality.

Asia: This could be tricky — 28 teams, including some globally significant nations such as Philippines (133), Syria (135), Thailand (142), Vietnam (158) and Indonesia (162). And is India (148) really that bad, even with a substantial percentage of the world’s population?

Oceania: Tahiti (141), Solomon Islands (171) and the other seven teams could play off for an Asia/Oceania playoff spot.

ALTERNATIVES

– Add one more group per continent for a total of 19. The winners (19) and the host nation take the first 20 spots in the Cup. Then the second-place teams go to the playoff round, along with the five highest-ranked third-place teams. That makes six groups of four, and the top two in each (12 total) go to the Cup. The advantage there is that more teams will be in the main qualifying pool. The disadvantage: We have to use the rankings to decide among third-place teams.

– Single-elimination, FA Cup or U.S. Open Cup-style! Wouldn’t be fair, but it’d be fun!

3
medal projections, olympic sports

2014 medal projections: Luge

Posted on by Beau Dure

Updated Jan. 14 and Feb. 4

Germany.

Oh, you want more detail? OK. But anyone who makes the German team (only three spots in individual races, two in doubles) is a contender. The German men took the top four places in the 2013 World Championships. One of them will miss out.

And without any proven contenders who have emerged in the last four years, we’re looking at the best possible result for Germany: men’s sweep, women’s sweep, 1-2 in doubles, relay win. (The relay is a new Olympic event.)

MEN

Gold: Felix Loch (Germany)
Silver: David Möller (Germany)
Bronze: Dominik Fischnaller (Italy)

Also considered: Albert Demchenko (Russia), Andi Langenhan (Germany), Chris Mazdzer (USA), Armin Zöggeler (Italy)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Loch, Zöggeler, Fischnaller, Moller, Mazdzer, Langenhan, Samuel Edney (CAN), Wolfgang Kindl (AUT)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Loch, Langenhan, Möller, Zöggeler, Demchenko, Johannes Ludwig (Germany), Fischnaller, David Mair (Italy)

2013 World Championship top 8: Loch, Langenhan, Ludwig, Möller, Edney, Mazdzer, Demchenko, Kindl

2010 Olympic medalists: Loch, Möller, Zöggeler

WOMEN

Gold: Natalie Geisenberger (Germany)
Silver: Tatjana Hüfner (Germany)
Bronze: Anke Wischnewski (Germany)

Also considered: Alex Gough (Canada), Erin Hamlin (USA), Kate Hansen (USA), Tatiana Ivanova (Russia)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Geisenberger, Gough, Hüfner, Wischnewski, Dajana Eitberger (GER), Hamlin, Hansen, Ivanova

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Geisenberger, Wischnewski, Hüfner, Gough, Ivanova, Julia Clukey (USA), Hamlin, Sandra Gasparini (Italy)

2013 World Championship top 8: Geisenberger, Hüfner, Gough, Wischnewski, Aileen Frisch (Germany), Hamlin, Kimberley MacRae (Canada), Arianne Jones (Canada)

2010 Olympic medalists: Hüfner, Nina Reithmayer (Austria), Geisenberger

DOUBLES

Gold: Tobias Wendl/Tobias Arlt (Germany)
Silver: Toni Eggert/Sascha Benecken (Germany)
Bronze: Andreas Linger/Wolfgang Linger (Austria)

Also considered: Christian Oberstolz/Patrick Gruber (Italy), Peter Penz/Georg Fischler (Austria), Andris Sic/Juris Sic (Latvia), Tristan Walker/Justin Smith (Canada)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Wendl/Arlt, Eggert/Benecken, Oberstolz/Gruber, Penz/Fischler, Linger/Linger, Walker/Smith, Vladislav Yuzhakov/Vladimir Makhnutin (Russia)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Wendl/Arlt, Eggert/Benecken, Penz/Fischler, Oberstolz/Gruber, Sic/Sic, Rieder/Rastner (Italy), Walker/Smith

2013 World Championship top 8: Wendl/Arlt, Eggert/Benecken, Linger/Linger, Walker/Smith, Penz/Fischler, Sic/Sic, Oberstolz/Gruber, Yuzhakov/Makhnutin (Russia)

2010 Olympic medalists: Linger/Linger, Sic/Sic, Leitner/Resch (Germany)

RELAY (new event)

Gold: Germany
Silver: Italy
Bronze: Russia

Also considered: Austria, Canada, Latvia, USA

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Germany, Canada, USA, Italy, Latvia, Austria, Russia, Slovakia

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Germany (won all six), Italy, USA, Canada, Russia, Austria, Latvia, Romania

2013 World Championship top 8: Germany, Canada, Latvia, Austria, USA, Italy, Russia, Poland

BIOS

Men

Albert Demchenko (Russia): Fourth in 2010 Olympics. Silver medal in 2006 Olympics. Second in 2012 World Championships – best-ever finish, at age 40.

Andi Langenhan (Germany): On the podium in three of the last five world championships. Runner-up each of the last two World Cup seasons.

Felix Loch (Germany): Olympic champion. Four of the last five world championships (runner-up in 2011). Back-to-back World Cup champion.

David Möller (Germany): 2004 and 2007 world champion. 2010 Olympic silver medalist. World Cup seasons since 2004: 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, (not listed), 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 4th, 3rd, 3rd.

Armin Zöggeler (Italy): Olympic gold medalist in 2002 and 2006; silver in 1998; bronze in 1994 and 2010. World champion in 1995, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005 and 2011. Nine-time World Cup champion. He’ll be 40 in Sochi.

Women

Natalie Geisenberger (Germany): World champion in 2013 after three straight runner-up finishes (2008, 2009, 2011) and a third-place finish in 2012. World Cup champion in 2013 after four straight runner-up finishes. Third in 2010 Olympics. Finally her time to take throne from Hüfner?

Alex Gough (Canada): Third place in 2011 and 2013 world championships.

Erin Hamlin (USA): Only American to win world championship (2009).

Tatjana Hüfner (Germany): World champion in 2007, 2008, 2011 and 2012; runner-up in 2013. World Cup champion five straight years, from 2008 to 2012.

Tatiana Ivanova (Russia): World championship runner-up in 2012.

Anke Wischnewski (Germany): Best World Cup season (second overall) in 2013 at age 35. Five top-fives in World Championships.

Doubles

Toni Eggert/Sascha Benecken (Germany): 2012 and 2013 world championship runner-up.

Andreas Linger/Wolfgang Linger (Austria): 2006 and 2010 Olympic champions. 2011 and 2012 world champions; third in 2013. 2012 World Cup champions.

Christian Oberstolz/Patrick Gruber (Italy): Fifth and fourth in last two Olympics. 2005 and 2009 World Cup champions. One World Championship medal (silver, 2011).

Andris Sic/Juris Sic (Latvia): Never better than sixth in World Cup season but second in 2010 Games and third in 2011 World Championships.

Tobias Wendl/Tobias Arlt (Germany): Sadly, no Tobias Funke. 2013 world champions. World Cup champions in 2011 and 2013; second in 2012.

2
medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

2014 medal projections: Freestyle skiing

Posted on by Beau Dure

Updated Jan. 14 and 21 and Feb. 5

Want new events? We’ve got your new events right here — slopestyle and halfpipe. They’re not just for snowboarders any more.

Yes, the X Games-ification of the Olympics continues, and that might mean more medal opportunities for the USA. But the rest of the world has a pretty good headstart, so don’t count on it.

Unlike some of the sports we’ve been covering, there’s very little overlap between events here. If you do aerials, you don’t do moguls. Some halfpipe skiers do slopestyle, and vice versa, but that’s about it. So the formatting here will be slightly different.

One neat thing to note: The World Cup stopped at the Bird’s Nest in Beijing in December for an aerials competition. I can’t think of another venue to host Olympic track and field and World Cup freestyle skiing.

One sad thing to note: This sport has been struck by tragedy in the last Olympic cycle. Aerials silver medalist Jeret “Speedy” Peterson took his own life in 2011. Then halfpipe pioneer Sarah Burke died in a training accident in 2012.

To the slopes, moguls, aerial ramps and halfpipes we go …

MEN

Aerials

Gold: Qi Guangpu (China)
Silver: Jia Zongyang (China)
Bronze: Travis Gerrits (Canada)

Also considered: Alexei Grishin (Belarus), Anton Kushnir (Belarus). Removed Dylan Ferguson (USA), who didn’t qualify, and Olivier Rochon (Canada), who’s injured.

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Jia Zongyang (China), David Morris (Australia), Qi Guangpu (China), Ferguson, Travis Gerrits (Canada), Dmitri Dashinski (Belarus), Maxim Gustik (Belarus), Denis Osipau (Belarus)

2013 World Championship top 8: Qi, Gerrits, Jia, Liu Zhongqing (China), Morris, Oleksandr Abramenko (Ukraine), Christopher Lambert (Switzerland), Wu Chao (China)

2010 Olympic medalists: Grishin, Jeret “Speedy” Peterson (USA), Liu Zhongqing (China)

Moguls

Gold: Mikael Kingsbury (Canada)
Silver: Alex Bilodeau (Canada)
Bronze: Patrick Deneen (USA)

Also considered: Sho Endo (Japan), Bradley Wilson (USA)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Kingsbury, Bilodeau, Deneen, Wilson, Marc-Antoine Gagnon (Canada), Endo, Philippe Marquis (Canada), Dylan Walczyk (USA)

2013 World Championship top 8 (moguls): Kingsbury, Bilodeau, Deneen, Matt Graham (Australia), Jae-Woo Choi (South Korea), Per Spett (Sweden), Brodie Summers (Australia), Wilson

2013 World Championship top 8 (dual moguls): Bilodeau, Kingsbury, Deneen, Spett, Endo, Sam Hall (Australia), Marquis, Jimi Salonen (Finland)

2010 Olympic medalists: Bilodeau, Dale Begg-Smith (Australia), Bryon Wilson (USA)

Skicross

Gold: Alex Fiva (Switzerland)
Silver: Dave Duncan (Canada)
Bronze: Andreas Matt (Austria)

Also considered: Jean Frederic Chapuis (France), Chris Del Bosco (Canada), Filip Flisar (Slovenia), Victor Oehling Norberg (Sweden)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Fiva, Armin Niederer (Switzerland), Norberg, Chapuis, Brady Leman (Canada), Flisar, Tomas Kraus (Czech Republic), Jouni Pellinen (Finland)

2013 World Championship top 8: Chapuis, Bastien Midol (France), John Teller (USA), Pellinen, Flisar, Del Bosco, Anton Grimus (Australia), Marco Tomasi (Italy)

2012 Winter X Games: Del Bosco, Flisar, Duncan, Pellinen

2010 Olympic medalists: Michael Schmid (Switzerland), Matt, Audun Groenvold (Norway)

Slopestyle

Gold: Nick Goepper (USA)
Silver: Gus Kenworthy (USA)
Bronze: James Woods (Britain)

Also considered: Bobby Brown (USA), Joss Christiansen (USA), Oscar Wester (Sweden). Removed Tom Wallisch (USA), who didn’t qualify

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Woods, Johan Berg (Norway), Oscar Wester (Sweden), Alex Beaulieu-Marchand (Canada), Lyman Currier (USA), Fabian Boesch (Switzerland), Laurent de Martin (Switzerland), Jonas Hunziker (Switzerland)

2013 World Championship top 8: Wallisch, Woods, Goepper, Andreas Haatveit (Norway), Antoine Adelisse (France), Kenworthy, Wester, Beau-James Wells (New Zealand)

2013 X Games Aspen medalists: Goepper, Henrik Harlaut (Sweden), Woods

2013 X Games Tignes medalists: McRae Williams (USA), Jossi Wells (New Zealand), Kenworthy

Halfpipe

Gold: David Wise (USA)
Silver: Torin Yater-Wallace (USA)
Bronze: Mike Riddle (Canada)

Also considered: Justin Dorey (Canada), Thomas Krief (France), Kevin Rolland (France)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Riddle, Yater-Wallace, Wise, Aaron Blunck (USA), Krief, Antti-Jussi Kemppainen (Finland), Gus Kenworthy (USA), Matt Margetts (Canada)

2013 World Championship top 8: Wise, Yater-Wallace, Krief, Riddle, Kemppainen, Blunck, Kevin Rolland (France), Simon Dumont (USA)

2013 X Games Aspen medalists: Wise, Yater-Wallace, Dumont

2013 X Games Tignes medalists: Yater-Wallace, Wise, Rolland

WOMEN

Aerials

Gold: Xu Mengtao (China)
Silver: Lydia Lassila (Australia)
Bronze: Danielle Scott (Australia)

Also considered: Ashley Caldwell (USA), Emily Cook (USA), pretty much anyone else from China or Australia who makes the team

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Xu, Cook, Lassila, Laura Peel (Australia), Zhang Xin (China), Yang Yu (China), Nadiya Didenko (Ukraine), Scott

2013 World Championship top 8: Xu, Veronika Korsunova (Russia), Scott, Xu Sicun (China), Lassila, Samantha Wells (Australia), Tanja Schaerer (Switzerland), Peel

2010 Olympic medalists: Lassila, Li Nina (China), Guo Xinxin (China)

Moguls

Gold: Hannah Kearney (USA)
Silver: Justine Dufour-Lapointe (Canada)
Bronze: Heather McPhie (USA)

Also considered: Chloe Dufour-Lapointe (Canada), Miki Ito (Japan)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Kearney, J. Dufour-Lapointe, McPhie, Eliza Outtrim (USA), C. Dufour-Lapointe, Ito, Aiko Uemura (Japan), Nikola Sudova (Czech Republic)

2013 World Championship top 8 (moguls): Kearney, Ito, J. Dufour-Lapointe, McPhie, Uemura, Arisa Murata (Japan), Sudova, C. Dufour-Lapointe

2013 World Championship top 8 (dual moguls): C. Dufour-Lapointe, Ito, Kearney, McPhie, Murata, Sudova, Andi Naude (Canada), Britteny Cox (Australia)

2010 Olympic medalists: Kearney, Jennifer Heil (Canada), Shannon Bahrke (USA)

Skicross

Gold: Fanny Smith (Switzerland)
Silver: Ophelie David (France)
Bronze: Marielle Thompson (Canada)

Also considered: Katrin Mueller (Switzerland), Kelsey Serwa (Canada)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Smith, David, Marielle Berger Sabbatel (France), Serwa, Mueller, Marte Gjefsen (Norway), Thompson, Georgia Simmerling (Canada)

2013 World Championship top 8: Smith, Thompson, David, Jorinde Mueller (Switzerland), Anna Woerner (Germany), Katrin Ofner (Austria), Alizee Baron (France), Katya Crema (Australia)

2012 Winter X Games: Gjefsen, Hedda Berntsen (Norway), Jenny Owens (Australia)

2010 Olympic medalists: Ashleigh McIvor (Canada), Berntsen, Marion Josserand (France)

Slopestyle

Gold: Kaya Turski (Canada)
Silver: Tiril Sjaastad Christiansen (Norway)
Bronze: Keri Herman (USA)

Also considered: Dara Howell (Canada), Devin Logan (USA)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Herman, Christiansen, Howell, Anna Segal (Australia), Alexi Micinski (USA), Anna Willcox-Silfverberg (New Zealand), Dominique Ohaco (Chile), Chiho Takao (Japan)

2013 World Championship top 8: Turski, Howell, Grete Eliassen (USA), Katie Summerhayes (Britain), Yuki Tsubota (Canada), Micinski, Jamie Crane-Mauzy (USA), Natalia Slepecka (Slovakia)

2013 X Games Aspen medalists: Christiansen, Turski, Howell

2013 X Games Tignes medalists: Turski, Christiansen, Howell

Halfpipe

Gold: Virginie Faivre (Switzerland)
Silver: Roz Groenewoud (Canada)
Bronze: Maddie Bowman (USA)

Also considered: Marie Martinod (France), Ayana Onozuka (Japan)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Faivre, Groenewoud, Onozuka, Bowman, Mirjam Jaeger (Switzerland), Keltie Hansen (Canada), Annalisa Drew (USA), Katrien Aerts (Belgium)

2013 World Championship top 8: Faivre, Anais Caradeux (France), Onozuka, Manami Mitsuboshi (Japan), Martinod, Angeli Vanlaanen (USA), Hansen, Jaeger

2013 X Games Aspen medalists: Bowman, Groenewoud, Megan Gunning

2013 X Games Tignes medalists: Martinod, Caradeux, Bowman

BIOS

Men

Aerials

Dylan Ferguson (USA): Back-to-back fourth-place World Cup seasons. Missed 2010 Olympics after complications with his appendix. Controversially omitted from team.

Travis Gerrits (Canada): Breakthrough season in 2013: Fifth in World Cup, second in World Championships.

Qi Guangpu (China): 2011 World Cup champion, 2013 world champion (second in 2011).

David Morris (Australia): Second in 2013 World Cup.

Jia Zongyang (China): Last four World Cup seasons: third, fourth, second, first.

Moguls

Alex Bilodeau (Canada): Olympic champion. 2009 World Cup champion; second in 2011 and 2013. Back-to-back-to-back world champion in dual moguls; back-to-back runner-up in moguls.

Patrick Deneen (USA): Top four in last three World Cup seasons. 2009 world champion.

Sho Endo (Japan): Good year in 2013 – sixth in World Cup, fifth in dual moguls at World Championships.

Mikael Kingsbury (Canada): Back-to-back World Cup champion, the first at age 19. Four straight podiums in 2011 and 2013 World Championship moguls/dual moguls.

Bradley Wilson (USA): Fourth in 2013 World Cup at age 20.

Skicross

Jean Frederic Chapuis (France): Some decent results then a big bang to end the 2013 season — world championship, third and first in last two World Cup races.

Chris Del Bosco (Canada): Two-time X Games champion and 2011 world champion. Second in World Cup three straight years (2009-11). Not too active in 2013 but was second in World Cup race in Sochi.

Dave Duncan (Canada): Broke collarbone just before 2010 Olympics. Has a couple of X Games medals.

Alex Fiva (Switzerland): World Cup 2013 champion is consistently in top places on Cup circuit but hasn’t broken through in big events.

Filip Flisar (Slovenia): A few World Cup wins and the season title in 2012. Has videos devoted to his mustache.

Armin Niederer (Switzerland): Several good results in World Cup.

Victor Oehling Norberg (Sweden): Breakthrough 2013 season included win in Sochi.

John Teller (USA): Wildly inconsistent, though that’s somewhat explained by the nature of the event.

Slopestyle

Nick Goepper (USA): Turns 20 after the Olympics. Already has an X Games gold and World Championship bronze.

Gus Kenworthy (USA): Rare two-event threat nearly made team in halfpipe as well.

Tom Wallisch (USA): Won 2012 X Games Aspen and 2013 world title, along with several Dew Tour stops. Then he didn’t make the Olympic team. Tough competition.

James Woods (Britain): Longest hair in Britain?

Halfpipe

Simon Dumont (USA): Ever seen the video of him falling 80 feet? He recovered and started his own competition, the Dumont Cup, to let newcomers compete alongside pros. And he has a nice safe side career racing cars. Several X Games medals.

Mike Riddle (Canada): 2011 world champion and 2013 World Cup champion.

David Wise (USA): 2013 X Games Aspen and world champion. Also 2012 X Games Aspen.

Torin Yater-Wallace (USA): Won a 2011 X Games medal at age 15. Now has a couple of X Games Tignes gold medalst, plus second place in the 2013 World Championship and World Cup.

Women

Aerials

Emily Cook (USA): Started competing in 1998 and had best World Cup season in 2013. Competed in two Olympics and seven world championships — best result is fourth in 2009.

Lydia Lassila (Australia): Olympic champion and 2009 World Cup champion took time off to start a family, then came back with strong 2013 season.

Danielle Scott (Australia): Consistent top-five finisher in second World Cup season.

Xu Mengtao (China): Back-to-back World Cup champion. Two-time World Championship runner-up before winning it in 2013. Sixth in 2010 Olympics — has finished no lower than third in World Cup competition since then.

Zhang Xin (China): 11 World Cup podiums.

Moguls

Chloe Dufour-Lapointe (Canada): The Venus to Justine’s Serena — the older sister with two World Championship medals in dual moguls.

Justine Dufour-Lapointe (Canada): Two-time World Cup season runner-up before her 19th birthday.

Hannah Kearney (USA): Won four of the last five World Cup titles. On the podium for all moguls and dual moguls World Championship events in 2011 and 2013. Won 16 straight World Cup events in 2011 and 2012, then eight of the last 14.

Heather McPhie (USA): Top five in last four World Cup seasons — every position except first. Fourth place in last three World Championship events.

Skicross

Hedda Berntsen (Norway): Former Alpine skier has Olympic and X Games medals. Competed little in 2013.

Ophelie David (France): Four-time X Games winner, 2007 world champion and seven-time World Cup champion crashed in the 2010 Olympic quarterfinals. Back to try again at age 37.

Kelsey Serwa (Canada): 2011 world champion kept out of 2013 event due to injury. Fifth in 2010 Olympics.

Fanny Smith (Switzerland): World Cup champion and world champion at age 20. Seventh in 2010 Olympics at age 17.

Marielle Thompson (Canada): 2012 World Cup champion and 2013 World Championship runner-up. Then won the junior world championship.

Slopestyle

Tiril Sjaastad Christiansen (Norway): 18-year-old has two X Games medals and was 2013 World Cup runner-up.

Keri Herman (USA): Lots of X Games silver and the 2013 World Cup title.

Dara Howell (Canada): Not yet 20, three-time X Games medalist and World Championship silver medalist.

Kaya Turski (Canada): 2013 world champion and three-time X Games champion.

Halfpipe

Maddie Bowman (USA): Turns 20 in January. Moved up from 2012 X Games Aspen silver to gold in 2013.

Virginie Faivre (Switzerland): Three-time World Cup champion and two-time world champion. Rarely finishes off the podium.

Roz Groenewoud (Canada): 2011 world champion, 2012 X Games Aspen winner. Close friend of late halfpipe pioneer Sarah Burke.

Ayana Onozuka (Japan): Scant competition record but mostly top-fives.

Marie Martinod (France): Took seven-year break to start a family, then came back to chase the Olympics. 3-for-3 in halfpipe competition in 2004 World Cup season. Didn’t compete again on World Cup circuit until January 2013, winning in Copper Mountain.

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college sports, sports culture

Divert sports funding to arts?

Posted on by Beau Dure

A Gary Gutting piece at the NYT’s philosophy blog starts out reassuring us that the lack of humanities majors isn’t a bad thing (after all, we can’t everyone being like me) then meanders to suggestions for shoring up the “cultural middle class.”

Then it gets interesting:

Fair treatment for writers and artists is an even more difficult matter, which will ultimately require a major change in how we think about support for the arts. Fortunately, however, we already have an excellent model, in our support of athletics. Despite our general preference for capitalism, our support for sports is essentially socialist, with local and state governments providing enormous support for professional teams. To cite just one striking example, the Minnesota State Legislature recently appropriated over $500 million to help build the Vikings a new stadium. At the same time, the Minnesota Orchestra is close to financial disaster because it can’t erase a $6 million deficit. If the Legislature had diverted only 10 percent of its support for football, it would have covered that deficit for the next eight years.

Over all, taxpayer money provides more than a billion dollars annually in tax exemptions and stadium subsidies for N.F.L. teams. Other sports also receive generous support. Even major universities subsidize professional sports through their (mostly money-losing) athletic programs, which provide a continuing influx of professional players. Universities could reduce their efforts to field teams playing at near-professional levels and direct the money saved to artistic activities much closer to their core mission.

Provocative question.

You could easily argue that sports mean more to the typical city than a symphony does. Go to a town like Boston — the music is fantastic, but the sports teams (especially the Red Sox) are a massive presence.

At a college? Hard to say. Even within the arts, you find intriguing budget decisions. I always wondered why my school had a bunch of antique instruments but could barely manage a working set of tympani. But then you move over to the athletics department and find the best possible facilities for nearly every sport. Some college soccer players go “pro” and are stunned to find some travel arrangements and other aspects of pro life don’t measure up to what they had in college.

But as a former college musician, I’m not sure I can complain about that. I have to admit most sports teams at Duke had larger crowds than I saw for our Wind Symphony concerts. Also, it was just a bit easier to make the Marching Band than it was to make the soccer team.

Are the arts really closer to a “core mission” of a college than the sports teams? I don’t know about that. I’m not really sure why I got course credit for Wind Symphony, Percussion Ensemble AND my P.E. courses, but my friends on the volleyball team got no such credit for their sport.

So, again — provocative question.

3
basketball, college sports, mind games, olympic sports, winter sports

At Ozy.com: Magnus Carlsen, hoops freshmen, curling

Posted on by Beau Dure

If you haven’t checked out Ozy.com yet, please do. It’s a terrific site capturing the next wave of what’s important, what’s interesting and what’s cool.

And I’m not just saying that because they’ve given me the opportunity to write three terrific pieces:

– Magnus Carlsen, the new face of chess (written before he won the world title)

– College basketball’s big freshmen: Jabari Parker, Julius Randle, Andrew Wiggins

– Curling: From the Olympics to Arizona, it’s catching on. Can the USA harness that interest and build better teams?

The medal projections here at SportsMyriad are ongoing. Freestyle skiing just takes a while.

Happy Thanksgiving to all!

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