Author: Beau Dure

The guy who wrote a bunch of soccer books and now runs a Gen X-themed podcast while substitute teaching and continuing to write freelance stuff.
soccer

Quick retort to the English hand-wringing over Jermain Defoe

Posted on by Beau Dure

Just a few random facts:

– The USA advanced to the 2002 World Cup quarterfinals with a lot of MLS players. Landon Donovan and Brian McBride scored two goals each.

– The USA drew Italy 1-1 in the 2006 World Cup with a lot of MLS players. Only Ghana’s gamesmanship and some ill-timed injuries and loss of form (among the Euro contingent) kept that team from advancing further.

– The USA and England were in the same group in 2010. Remember who won that group? Fewer U.S. players that year were in MLS at the time, but many had spent several years in our little league.

– Other countries that have featured MLS players at the World Cup: Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Honduras, New Zealand.

– MLS players in Euro tournaments: Robbie Keane, Lothar Matthaeus, Roberto Donadoni, Miklos Molnar.

– David Beckham kept going on loan and proving he could still play through the first couple of years of his MLS career. He had already declined from his peak years, yet after several years in the USA, he was still a sought-after player at an advanced age.

– MLS is indeed a physical league. So is the Premier League. You know, we get to watch that on TV here. Rebecca Lowe is our host, and you can’t have her back.

– Some players thrive in different environments. New Zealanders Ryan Nelsen and Simon Elliott looked like better players in England than they were in MLS. Brek Shea is apparently the opposite.

– The 2002 World Cup was overrun by players from unfashionable leagues and clubs. Turkey and South Korea reached the semifinals. The chaotic Brazilian leagues supplied much of the Brazilian team that reached the final (beating England along the way).

– Uruguay (semifinals) and Paraguay (quarterfinals) fared quite well at the 2010 World Cup with only a handful of players at big clubs.

– Who do you think is going to get better service at his current club — Jermain Defoe or Jozy Altidore?

I love you, England, but when will your writers drop the provincialism?

Yes, we know Toronto isn’t the best club in MLS. At least Thierry Henry and Robbie Keane are surrounded by decent players on clubs that have some recent successes.

But here’s the funny thing: In a league built for parity (something Premier League folks can’t possibly understand), teams routinely move from the bottom to the top. Or vice versa. The margin for error is thin; the potential rewards for making just the right offseason moves are immense.

Taking Toronto to the top will be a challenge. But don’t you want your players to be challenged?

If nothing else — look, England plays Costa Rica in Group D this summer. MLS has Costa Rican players, and their best clubs face MLS teams in CONCACAF play all the time. You’re getting a free scouting report. Enjoy.

And if you’re that worried — OK, we’ll let you keep Clint Dempsey.

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soccer

NWSL expansion, MLS precedent and devious tactics

Posted on by Beau Dure

Want some irony?

The person at the epicenter of the biggest controversy in MLS expansion draft history is now the managing director of the Houston Dash, which will stock its roster in the first NWSL expansion draft Friday.

Brian Ching was (and still is) a Houston legend, a key figure in the Dynamo’s early MLS success. The Dynamo left him unprotected in the 2011 expansion draft, figuring no one would take him.

Naturally, the Montreal Impact took him. Brian Straus explained:

Houston officials had gambled that Ching’s age (33), salary ($412,500), recent injuries and public preference for retirement over Quebec would scare off Marsch. Instead, the coach called the Dynamo’s bluff and made an instant enemy in Texas. Now, the Dynamo will either have to trade for Ching or let the long-time face of the franchise go.

And it wasn’t the first time this had happened. Here’s Ives Galarcep:

In 2006, Real Salt Lake tried a similar move by leaving then-captain Jason Kreis exposed in Toronto FC’s expansion draft, never thinking that the Canadian club would be interested in a 33-year-old American striker on a relatively high salary. Toronto FC wasn’t interested in Kreis, but was fully aware that Real Salt Lake had made Kreis their poster boy heading into the 2007 season. TFC selected Kreis and ultimately forced RSL to pay a $125K allocation to give him back.

So Kreis made it back to RSL, where he went on to be their coach for several good years. And Ching made it back to Houston — for a surprisingly low price of one draft pick. Ching finished out his playing career in Houston, and now he’s the one who gets to turn the thumb screws in the expansion draft.

When you look at the protected/unprotected list that someone curiously leaked in the middle of the night, you’ll see some surprising names. Nicole Barnhart. Karina LeBlanc. Becky Edwards. Tiffany Weimer. Ashlyn Harris. Lori Lindsey. Sarah Huffman.

A couple of those players are goalkeepers, and they’re less likely to be taken now that we know Houston has Erin McLeod.

Some other players are simply value decisions — maybe Player X has more long-term potential than Player Y. Or maybe losing Player Y would give the team more flexibility under the salary cap.

Some of these players are gambles, like Ching and Kreis. The teams figure Houston will shy away, not wanting to use a lot of salary-cap space or not wanting to bring an angry player to camp.

But look at this from Houston’s perspective. Suppose you really want, say, a player on Western New York’s protected list like Samantha Kerr or Kat Reynolds. Maybe you pick Sarah Huffman and say, “OK, Flash — we’ll give you Huffman for Kerr.” Maybe toss in a draft pick to make sure it happens.

For that and for several other reasons, don’t expect the dealing to stop on draft day. In 2010, the Portland Timbers (sibling team of the NWSL’s Thorns) drafted 10 players in the expansion draft. A couple of their picks weren’t playing in the league; the Timbers merely stashed their rights. Others were immediately traded elsewhere.

So you’ll all forgive me if I don’t do a mock expansion draft. Too many moving parts. And unlike MLS players, NWSL players don’t even have their salaries released to the public.

A couple of side notes:

– Did some teams know about the McLeod deal while other teams did not? That would explain why Barnhart, Harris, LeBlanc and company are floating around. Why not just announce it ahead of time so the teams have all the same information before submitting their lists a few days ago?

– Can we drop the myth that the Spirit is trying to stock its roster cheaply? They overspent on some players last year, and they saved up money early to acquire Toni Pressley and Conny Pohlers. You can say they managed their cap space badly, but they weren’t fielding an Atlanta Beat team against the rest of the league’s magicJack.

– Another precedent for the NWSL: A lot of indoor soccer players in the 2000s were picked in expansion drafts but immediately traded back to their original teams for draft picks and whatnot. One factor: Some players had second jobs. And a low-budget league doesn’t want to pay to relocate families.

– So does Houston take Tasha Kai and deal her to Portland in hopes that she’ll want to reunite with Paul Riley? Boom bam, everybody.

0
medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

2014 medal projections: Hockey

Posted on by Beau Dure

Once upon a time, the Olympics were the only time the world’s best athletes faced each other in many sports. That’s not true in most sports these days, but it applies to men’s hockey. The men’s World Championship takes place during the NFL playoffs, thereby depriving the tournament of most of the world’s best players. And those tournaments play a big role in the rankings that we need to take with a whole bunch of salt.

The women’s competition is a little easier to predict. The best players are all available for international events, and the USA and Canada keep playing each other. They’re also unquestionably the top two teams in the world. Finland has finished third in 10 of the 15 World Championships and two of the four Olympics. Russia finished third in 2013 and is playing at home.

Into the boards we go …

MEN

Gold: Sweden
Silver: Canada
Bronze: Russia

Also considered: Finland, USA

2013 world ranking: Sweden, Finland, Russia, Czech Republic, Canada, USA, Switzerland, Slovakia

2013 World Championships: Sweden, Switzerland, USA, Finland, Canada, Russia, Czech Republic, Slovakia

2010 Olympics: Canada, USA, Finland, Slovakia, Sweden, Russia, Czech Republic, Switzerland

WOMEN

Gold: USA
Silver: Canada
Bronze: Finland

Also considered: Russia

2013 world ranking: USA, Canada, Finland, Russia, Switzerland, Sweden, Germany, Slovakia

2013 World Championships: USA, Canada, Russia, Finland, Switzerland, Germany, Czech Republic, Sweden

2010 Olympics: Canada, USA, Finland, Sweden, Switzerland, Russia, China, Slovakia

KEY PLAYERS

Men

Canada: Sidney Crosby (C, Pittsburgh), Ryan Getzlaf (C, Anaheim), Steven Stamkos (C, Tampa Bay – injury concern), Corey Perry (RW, Anaheim), Martin St. Louis (RW, Tampa Bay), Duncan Keith (D, Chicago), Drew Doughty (D, Los Angeles), P.J. Subban (D, Montreal), Carey Price (G, Montreal), Roberto Luongo (G, Vancouver)

Czech Republic: Jaromir Jagr (RW, New Jersey), Jiri Hudler (C, Calgary), David Krejci (C, Calgary), Patrik Elias (LW, New Jersey), Radim Vrbata (RW, Phoenix), Marek Zidlicky (D, New Jersey)

Finland: Mikko Koivu (C, Minnesota), Valtteri Filppula (C, Tampa Bay), Jussi Jokinen (LW, Pittsburgh), Olli Jokinen (C, Winnipeg), Saku Koivu (C, Anaheim), Kimmo Timonen (D, Philadelphia), Tuukka Rask (G, Boston), Antti Niemi (G, San Jose)

Russia: Alex Ovechkin (LW, Washington), Evgeni Malkin (C, Pittsburgh), Pavel Datsyuk (C, Detroit), Ilya Kovalchuk (LW, SKA St. Petersburg), Alexander Semin (RW, Carolina), Andrei Markov (D, Montreal), Alexei Emelin (D, Montreal), Sergei Bobrovsky (G, Columbus)

Slovakia: Marian Hossa (RW, Chicago), Zdeno Chara (D, Boston), Jaroslav Halak (G, St. Louis)

Sweden: Henrik Lundqvist (G, NY Rangers), Daniel Sedin (LW, Vancouver), Henrik Sedin (C, Vancouver), Henrik Zetterberg (C, Detroit), Nicklas Backstrom (C, Washington), Erik Karlsson (D, Ottawa)

USA: Patrick Kane (RW, Chicago), Zach Parise (LW, Minnesota), Ryan Kesler (C, Vancouver), Phil Kessel (RW, Toronto), Ryan Suter (D, Minnesota), Ryan Miller (G, Buffalo), Jonathan Quick (G, Los Angeles)

Women

Canada: Marie-Philip Poulin (2013 World Championship leading scorer and MVP), Catherine Ward (top-scoring defenseman at 2013 Worlds), Hayley Wickenheiser (20-year veteran), Gillian Apps (bruiser). Had some turmoil with coach Dan Church stepping down in late December.

Finland: Jenni Hiirikoski (2013 World Championship defensive award), Noora Raty (140 saves at 2013 Worlds), Michelle Karvinen (team-leading three goals at 2013 Worlds)

Russia: Nadezhda Alexandrova (2013 World Championship goaltending award; 98.63 save percentage at Worlds), Yekaterina Smolentseva (three goals at 2013 Worlds), Anna Shibanova (active defenseman)

USA: Brianna Decker (six goals in 2013 Worlds), Amanda Kessel (six assists in 2013 Worlds), Jessie Vetter (starting goalie)

2
medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

2014 medal projections: Curling

Posted on by Beau Dure

Suppose basketball, globally, had a bunch of teams in the USA and a few elsewhere. Then for Olympic basketball, each country selected one team from within its country. Maybe the USA sends the Miami Heat, Spain sends Barcelona, etc. That’s curling, except that we put Canada in place of the USA.

Curling has a lot of competitions through the year, some on the World Curling Tour. Check the list of men’s teams on the WCT, and you’ll see a lot of Canadians. Then you have the World Championships and Olympics, in which each country is limited to one team.

Obviously, it’s a bit more competitive to win Canada’s slot than it is to represent a lot of other countries. But that doesn’t mean Canada is always a shoo-in, especially in women’s curling. Scotland is the sport’s birthplace, and a lot of European countries are moving up. The U.S. men had to fight for an Olympic spot this time around, winning must-win after must-win to make it to Sochi.

Your humble blogger here loves curling. And he loves having so much information so nicely compiled. The World Curling Federation has a gateway site full of Olympic-related curling news. Some nice person at Wikipedia is collecting links to each country’s team nominations. And the World Curling Federation has overall rankings along with the Olympic qualification rankings combining the results from the last two World Championships. That gives us more data than we’ll have for men’s hockey, which we’re going to predict with a dartboard and some Molson.

To the rink we go …

MEN (skips in parentheses)

Gold: Canada (Brad Jacobs)
Silver: Sweden (Niklas Edin)
Bronze: Britain (David Murdoch)

Also considered: Denmark (Rasmus Stjerne), Norway (Thomas Ulsrud)

Olympic qualification ranking: Canada, Sweden, Britain***, Norway, Denmark, China, Switzerland, USA 8th*, Russia 11th**, Germany 14th

2013 World Championship: Sweden (Edin), Canada (Jacobs), Scotland (Murdoch), Denmark (Stjerne), Norway (Ulsrud), China (Riu Liu), Switzerland (Sven Michel), Czech Republic, USA (Brady Clark), Russia (Andrey Drozdov), Japan, Finland

(Sochi skips who weren’t at Worlds: USA’s John Shuster, Germany’s John Jahr)

Overall ranking: Canada, Britain, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, Denmark, China, USA, Germany, Russia

2010 Olympic medalists: Canada (Kevin Martin), Norway (Ulsrud), Switzerland (Ralph Stöckli)

WOMEN

Gold: Sweden (Margaretha Sigfridsson)
Silver: Britain (Eve Muirhead)
Bronze: Canada (Jennifer Jones)

Also considered: Switzerland (Mirjam Ott), USA (Erika Brown)

Olympic qualification ranking: Sweden, Switzerland, Britain***, Canada, USA, Russia**, Denmark, South Korea, Japan 10th*, China 11th*

2013 World Championship: Scotland (Muirhead), Sweden (Sigfridsson), Canada (Rachel Homan), USA (Brown), Switzerland (Silvana Tirinzoni), Russia (Anna Sidorova), Japan (Satsuki Fujisawa), Denmark (Lene Nielsen), China (Wang Bingyu), Italy, Germany, Latvia

(Sochi skips who weren’t at Worlds: Canada’s Jones, Switzerland’s Ott, Japan’s Ayumi Ogasawara, South Korea’s Ji-Sun Kim)

Overall ranking: Sweden, Canada, Britain, Switzerland, China, Denmark, USA, Russia, Japan, South Korea

2010 Olympic medalists: Canada (Cheryl Bernard), Sweden (Anette Norberg), China (Wang)

*-qualified for Olympics through Olympic qualification event

**-qualified for Olympics as host nation

***-“Britain” is really “Scotland.” England and Wales have their own teams, but they’re not contenders for Olympic berths.

BIOS

Men

Niklas Edin (Sweden): Fourth in 2010 Olympics. Third in 2011 and 2012 World Championships, then world champion in 2013.

Brad Jacobs (Canada): Second in 2013 World Championships. Won three of six World Curling Tour events in 2013.

David Murdoch (Britain):  Fourth in 2006 Olympics; fifth in 2010. World champion in 2006 and 2009; second in 2005 and 2008; third in 2010 and 2013.

John Shuster (USA): Played on Pete Fenson’s 2006 Olympic bronze medalist team. Moved on to skip his own team in 2010 Olympics and struggled. Joined Craig Brown’s team, then moved back on his own with a reshuffled lineup.

Rasmus Stjerne (Denmark): World junior champion in 2009. Fourth in 2013 World Championships. His father was a World Championship bronze medalist.

Thomas Ulsrud (Norway): 2010 silver medalist. Three-time World Championship bronze medalist. But most importantly, check out the pants.

Women

Erika Brown (USA): On two World Championship runner-up teams (1996, 1999) and the U.S. team for the first official Olympic competition in 1998. Now reunited with Debbie McCormick, who was also on the 1998 team and went on to be a world champion skip (2003). McCormick skipped the 2010 team and joined up with Brown for a team with tremendous international experience, finishing fourth in the 2013 World Championships.

Jennifer Jones (Canada): 2008 world champion; third place in 2010 Worlds. Has eight Grand Slam wins.

Eve Muirhead (Britain): Only 19 when she skipped at 2010 Olympics. Went on to take silver in 2010 Worlds and win the 2013 world championship. Also plays bagpipes.

Mirjam Ott (Switzerland): 2002 and 2006 Olympic silver medalist; 2012 world champion. Seven World Curling Tour wins in the last four years (four in 2010-11).

Margaretha Sigfridsson (Sweden): Four-time World Championship runner-up (2002, 2009, 2012, 2013). A rare team setup — she’s skip, but she throws the first rocks.

0
medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

2014 medal projections: Short-track speedskating

Posted on by Beau Dure

Updated Jan. 21 with Wang Meng injury

Short-track is a little less about times and more about who makes the last pass and remains upright. World Championships actually compile “overall” results that reward consistency. No such luck in the Olympics, so these predictions are bound to go wrong somewhere. We predictors can’t take it personally.

The action is often controversial, with a lot of collisions and interference requiring refs to figure things out. And for the USA, it has been controversial off the ice.

The World Cup runs in the fall, so as with long-track skating, we have a lot of recent data to use.

Around we go, very quickly …

MEN

500 meters

Gold: Viktor Ahn (Russia)
Silver: Charles Hamelin (Canada)
Bronze: Wu Dajing (China)

Also considered: Liang Wenhao (China), Seyeong Park (South Korea), Freek van der Wart (Netherlands)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Ahn, Hamelin, Vladimir Gregorev (Russia), Wu, Olivier Jean (Canada), Park, van der Wart, Liang

2013 World Championship top 4: Liang, Ahn, van der Wart, Semion Elistratov (Russia). Semifinalists: Jin-Kyu Noh (South Korea), Wu, Viktor Knoch (Hungary), J.R. Celski (USA), Jon Eley (Britain)

2010 Olympic medalists: Hamelin, Si-Bak Sung (South Korea), Francois-Louis Tremblay (Canada)

1,000 meters

Gold: Charles Hamelin (Canada)
Silver: Viktor Ahn (Russia)
Bronze: J.R. Celski (USA)

Also considered: Wu Dajing (China), Da-Woon Sin (South Korea)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Hamelin, Ahn, Niels Kerstholt (Netherlands), Wu Dajing (China), Han Tianyu (China), Olivier Jean (Canada), Celski, Han-Bin Lee (South Korea)

2013 World Championship top 4: Sin, Sjinkie Knegt (Netherlands), Hamelin, Celski. Semifinalists: Ahn, Yuzo Takamido (Japan), Jin-Kyu Noh (South Korea), Michael Gilday (Canada), Semion Elistratov (Russia), Vladimir Grigorev (Russia)

2010 Olympic medalists: Jung-Su Lee (South Korea), So-Huk Lee (South Korea), Apolo Ohno (USA)

1,500 meters

Gold: Da-Woon Sin (South Korea)
Silver: Yun-Jae Kim (South Korea)
Bronze: Charles Hamelin (Canada)

Also considered: Viktor Ahn (Russia), J.R. Celski (USA), anyone else from South Korea

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Hamelin, Han-Bin Lee (South Korea), Ahn, Jin-Kyu Noh (South Korea), Sjinkie Knegt (Netherlands), Francois Hamelin (Canada), Celski, Sin

2013 World Championship top 6: Sin, Yun-Jae Kim (South Korea), Hamelin, Ryosuke Sakazume (Japan), Michael Gilday (Canada), Noh

2010 Olympic medalists: Jung-Su Lee (South Korea), Apolo Ohno (USA), J.R. Celski (USA)

Relay

Gold: Canada
Silver: Russia
Bronze: South Korea

Also considered: Netherlands, USA

Also qualified: China, Kazakhstan, Italy

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: USA, Canada, Russia, South Korea, Netherlands, China, Italy, Britain

2013 World Championship top 4: Canada, Russia, Netherlands, South Korea

2010 Olympic medalists: Canada, South Korea, USA

WOMEN

500 meters

Gold: Fan Kexin (China)
Silver: Seung-Hi Park (South Korea)
Bronze: Arianna Fontana (Italy)

Also considered: Marianne St. Gelais (Canada), Suk Hee Shim (South Korea), Martina Valcepina (Italy). Removed for injury: Wang Meng (China)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Wang, Fan, Fontana, Park, Shim, Valcepina, St. Gelais, Liu Qiuhong (China)

2013 World Championship top 4: Wang, Fan, Park, St. Gelais. Semifinalists: Valcepina, Valerie Maltais (Canada), Fontana, Elise Christie (Britain)

2010 Olympic medalists: Wang, St. Gelais, Fontana

1,000 meters

Gold: Suk Hee Shim (South Korea)
Silver: A-Lang Kim (South Korea)
Bronze: Arianna Fontana (Italy)

Also considered: Seung-Hi Park (South Korea), Jorien ter Mors (Netherlands), Wang Meng (China)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Shim, Kim, Fontana, Park, Li Jianrou (China), Elise Christie (Britain), Valerie Maltais (Canada), ter Mors

2013 World Championship top 5: Wang, ter Mors, Christie, Fan Kexin (China), Zhou Yang (China). Semifinalists: Yui Sakai (Japan), Shim, Bernadett Heidum (Hungary), Fan Kexin (China), Park

2010 Olympic medalists: Wang, Katherine Reutter (USA), Park

1,500 meters

Gold: Suk Hee Shim (South Korea)
Silver: Seung-Hi Park (South Korea)
Bronze: Marianne St. Gelais (Canada)

Also considered: A-Lang Kim (South Korea), Valerie Maltais (Canada), Zhou Yang (China)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Shim, Kim, Zhou, Maltais, Park, Arianna Fontana (Italy), Jorien ter Mors (Netherlands), Bernadett Heidum (Hungary)

2013 World Championship top 7: Park, Shim, St. Gelais, Ayuko Ito (Japan), Maltais, Elise Christie (Britain), Zhou

2010 Olympic medalists: Zhou, Eun-Byul Lee (South Korea), Park

Relay

Gold: China
Silver: South Korea
Bronze: Canada

Also considered: Italy, Netherlands, Russia

Also qualified: Hungary, Japan

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: South Korea, China, Italy, Canada, Russia, Netherlands, Japan, USA

2013 World Championship top 4: China, Canada, Japan, South Korea

2010 Olympic medalists: China, Canada, USA

BIOS

Men

Viktor Ahn (Russia): Competed for South Korea as Hyun-Soo Ahn. 2006 gold medalist in 1,000 and 1,500. Overall world champion five straight years (2003-2007). Nasty injuries kept him out in 2010. Back in form with silver in 500 at 2013 Worlds and World Cup success at same distance. Typically makes late pass to win.

J.R. Celski (USA): Olympic bronze medalist (2010, 1,500) has had other big performances — second overall in 2009 World Championships at age 18. He also has some solid World Cup performances since then.

Wu Dajing (China): Not yet 20 and already winning World Cup races. Best at 500.

Semion Elistratov (Russia): Had an unusually good World Championship in 2013, making the 500 final and a couple of semifinals. Has one World Cup win and a couple of podiums.

Vladimir Gregorev (Russia): Suddenly breaking onto World Cup podiums after several years of struggle.

Charles Hamelin (Canada): 2010: Won gold in 500, ending a long spell of Olympic frustration after winning a couple of world championships (also at 500) and having tons of podium finishes through his career. Long-term relationship with skater Marianne St. Gelais.

Olivier Jean (Canada): Victim of Simon Cho’s skate-sabotaging at the 2011 World Team Championships. Came back with strong 2012 World Championship — gold in 500, bronze overall. Fourth in 2010 Olympics (1,500).

Yun-Jae Kim (South Korea): 2013 World Championship runner-up (overall and 1,500). Two other World Cup podiums, both at 1,500.

Sjinkie Knegt (Netherlands): Best World Championship finish was second in 2012 (1,000). Overall European champion in 2012. Four World Cup podiums.

Jin-Kyu Noh (South Korea): 2011 overall world champion (at age 18), winning 1,000 and 1,500. Second in 2012 overall, winning 1,500. Not as strong in 2013 World Championships but had some good results in the next World Cup season.

Seyeong Park (South Korea): 2013 world junior champion. Reached podium in two World Cup races in Seoul (500 and 1,000).

Da-Woon Sin (South Korea): 2013 overall world champion (at age 19), winning 1,000 and 1,500. World Cup podiums are all at 1,500.

Han Tianyu (China): 2013 world junior runner-up.

Freek van der Wart (Netherlands): Good year in 2013: European overall champion, third in 500 at World Championships. Only one World Cup podium, in 500.

Liang Wenhao (China): Scattered World Championship successes, winning 500 in 2010 and 2013. In 2011: third in 500, 1,000 and overall. Three 2012-13 wins: two at 500, one at 1,000.

Women

Elise Christie (Britain): Races as a front-runner in the 1,000, an unusual tactic in the cagey world of short-track. Last four world championships at 1,000: fourth, fourth, fourth, third.

Arianna Fontana (Italy): Only 15 when she medaled in relay on home ice at 2006 Olympics. Took bronze at 500 in 2010. Overall European champion in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013 (second in 2010). Third in World Championships in 2011 and 2012.

Fan Kexin (China): Strongest at 500, with a few World Cup wins and the 2011 and 2012 world championships.

A-Lang Kim (South Korea): Second in 2013 world junior championships. Terrific 2013-14 World Cup season at 1,000 and 1,500.

Valerie Maltais (Canada): Second overall (third in 1,000) at 2012 World Championships. Lone World Cup win is at 1,000.

Wang Meng (China): 2006 Olympics: Gold (500), silver (1,000), bronze (1,500). 2010 Olympics: gold in 500 and 1,000 (plus relay gold). Even better at World Championships: sweep in 2008, 500/1,000/overall in 2009, 500/1,000 in 2010, 500/1,000/overall in 2013. Fan of David Beckham and Michael Jordan. Removed from national team in 2011 after confrontation with coaches but reinstated in 2012.

Seung-Hi Park (South Korea): In 2010: bronze medals at 1,000 and 1,500, overall world championship, turned 18. 2013: world champion in 1,500.

Suk Hee Shim (South Korea): 2012 world junior champion. At 2013 World Championships: second in 1,500, third overall. 2013-14 World Cup winner at 1,000 and 1,500.

Marianne St. Gelais (Canada): Silver medal at 500 and relay in 2010. Also celebrated boyfriend Charles Hamelin’s gold medal. Took third at 1,500 in 2013 World Championships.

Jorien ter Mors (Netherlands): Expected to compete in short-track and long-track. 2013 World Championships: second in 1,000, fifth overall. Has World Cup podiums at 1,000 and 1,500.

Martina Valcepina (Italy): Nine World Cup podiums at 500.

Zhou Yang (China): Gold medalist (1,500) in 2010. Second overall (and in 1,000 and 1,500) in 2008 World Championships. Only recent World Cup podiums are in 1,500.

3
medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

2014 medal projections: Speedskating

Posted on by Beau Dure

Updated Jan. 21

Some sports run World Cup events right up until the Olympics. Not speedskating. Four World Cup events wrapped up by early December, then two more after Sochi. That’s why these projections have 2013-14 World Cup data rather than last season.

They’ll have the European Championships and World Sprint Championships in January, though, so a few things could still change here.

Salt Lake City still has one of the fastest surfaces in the world, and three world records fell there in November: men’s team pursuit (Netherlands), women’s 500 meters (South Korea’s Sang-Hwa Lee) and women’s 1,000 meters (USA’s Brittany Bowe). The best times so far in the World Cup season are all from Salt Lake City and Calgary (except in the men’s 10,000, which was run only in Astana). The 2013 World Single Distance Championships were run in Sochi.

One neat site to check in you want even more data: SpeedskatingResults.com

Around we go …

MEN

500 meters

Gold: Tae-Bum Mo (South Korea)
Silver: Michel Mulder (Netherlands)
Bronze: Joji Kato (Japan)

Also considered: Ronald Mulder (Netherlands), Keiichiro Nagashima (Japan), Jan Smeekens (Netherlands)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Mo, M. Mulder, Nagashima, Kato, R. Mulder, Artyom Kuznetsov (Russia), Tucker Fredricks (USA), Jesper Hospes (Netherlands)

2013 World Championship top 8: Mo, Kato, Smeekens, M. Mulder, R. Mulder, Dmitry Lobkov (Russia), Denis Koval (Russia), Pekka Koskela (Finland)

Best times, 2013-14: Nagashima (34.24), Gilmore Junio (Canada, 34.25), Kato (34.25), R. Mulder (34.25), M. Mulder (34.26), Mo (34.28), Mitchell Whitmore (USA, 34.29), Fredricks (34.30)

Best times, 2012-13: Kato (34.21), Smeekens (34.32), Koskela (34.36), Jamie Gregg (Canada, 34.36)

2010 Olympic medalists: Mo, Nagashima, Kato

1,000 meters

Gold: Shani Davis (USA)
Silver: Denis Kuzin (Kazakhstan)
Bronze: Tae-Bum Mo (South Korea)

Also considered: Brian Hansen (USA), Denny Morrison (Canada), Michel Mulder (Netherlands)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Davis, M. Mulder, Kuzin, Mo, Kjeld Nuis (Netherlands), Morrison, Hansen, Mirko Nenzi (Italy)

2013 World Championship top 8: Kuzin, Mo, Davis, Nuis, Zbigniew Brodka (Poland), Samuel Schwarz (Germany), Mirko Nenzi (Italy), Stefan Groothuis (Netherlands)

Best times, 2013-14: Davis (1:06.88), Nuis (1:07.02), Hansen (1:07.03), Morrison (1:07.44), Michel Mulder (Netherlands, 1:07.46), Mitchell Whitmore (USA, 1:07.52), Kuzin (1:07.71), Koen Verweij (Netherlands, 1:07.71)

Best times, 2012-13: Hein Otterspeer (Netherlands, 1:07.43), Haralds Silovs (Latvia, 1:07.47), Davis (1:07.49), M. Mulder (1:07.49), Nuis (1:07.64)

2010 Olympic medalists: Davis, Mo, Chad Hedrick (USA)

1,500 meters

Gold: Shani Davis (USA)
Silver: Koen Verweij (Netherlands)
Bronze: Denis Yuskov (Russia)

Also considered: Zbigniew Brodka (Poland), Brian Hansen (USA), Denny Morrison (Canada)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Davis, Verweij, Yuskov, Brodka, Sverre Lunde Pedersen (Norway), Konrad Niedzwiedzki (Poland), Rhian Ket (Netherlands), Joey Mantia (USA)

Best times, 2013-14: Davis (1:41.98), Hansen (1:42.16), Verweij (1:42.28), Yuskov (1:42.36), Morrison (1:42.79), Brodka (1:42.89), Kjeld Nuis (Netherlands, 1:42.92), Trevor Marsicano (USA, 1:43.02)

Best times, 2012-13: Morrison (1:44.73), Davis (1:44.94), Hansen (1:44.95)

2013 World Championship top 8: Yuskov, Davis, Ivan Skobrev (Russia), Hansen, Pedersen, Brodka, Mark Tuitert (Netherlands), Niedzwiedzki

2010 Olympic medalists: Tuitert, Davis, Håvard Bøkko (Norway)

5,000 meters

Gold: Sven Kramer (Netherlands)
Silver: Jorrit Bergsma (Netherlands)
Bronze: Seung-Hoon Lee (South Korea)

Also considered: Ivan Skobrev (Russia)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8 (5,000/10,000): Kramer, Bergsma, Lee, Bart Swings (Belgium), Alexis Contin (France), Jonathan Kuck (USA), Bob de Jong (Netherlands), Patrick Beckert (Germany)

Best times, 2013-14: Kramer (6:04.46), Bergsma (6:06.93), Lee (6:07.04), de Jong (6:07.43), Skobrev (6:08.77), Koen Verweij (Netherlands, 6:09.51), Kuck (6:09.73), Sverre Lunde Pedersen (Norway, 6:10.47)

Best times, 2012-13: Kramer (6:10.37)

2013 World Championship top 8: Kramer, Bergsma, Skobrev, Denis Yuskov (Russia), de Jong, Swings, Pedersen, Lee

2010 Olympic medalists: Kramer, Lee, Skobrev

10,000 meters

Gold: Sven Kramer (Netherlands)
Silver: Jorrit Bergsma (Netherlands)
Bronze: Bob de Jong (Netherlands)

Also considered: Seung-Hoon Lee (South Korea)

Best times, 2013-14 (mostly from Dutch trials): Kramer (12:45.09), Bergsma (12:47.42), de Jong (12:50.20), more Dutch people. Top non-Dutchmen: Aleksandr Rumyancev (Russia, 13:11.92), Ivan Skobrev (Russia, 13:14.43), Alexis Contin (France, 13:14.64), Alexej Baumgartner (Germany, 13:16.34)

Best times, 2012-13: Bergsma (12:50.40), de Jong (12:51.22), Kramer (12:55.98), Jan Blokhuijsen (Netherlands, 13:01.60), Lee (13:07.06)

2013 World Championship top 8: Bergsman, Kramer, de Jong, Lee, Bart Swings (Belgium), Shane Dobbins (New Zealand), Marco Weber (Germany), Patrick Beckert (Germany)

2010 Olympic medalists: Lee, Skobrev, de Jong

Team pursuit

Gold: Netherlands
Silver: South Korea
Bronze: USA

Also considered: Norway, Poland, Russia

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Netherlands, South Korea, USA, Norway, Poland, Canada, Germany, France

2013 World Championship: Netherlands, South Korea, Poland, Russia, Norway, Germany, Canada, Italy

2010 Olympic medalists: USA, Canada, Netherlands

WOMEN

500 meters

Gold: Sang-Hwa Lee (South Korea)
Silver: Olga Fatkulina (Russia)
Bronze: Heather Richardson (USA)

Also considered: Nao Kodaira (Japan), Beixing Wang (China), Jenny Wolf (Germany)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Lee, Fatkulina, Richardson, Wolf, Wang, Kodaira, Margot Boer (Netherlands), Thijsje Oenema (Netherlands)

Best times, 2013-14: Lee (36.36), Wang (36.85), Richardson (36.90), Fatkulina (37.13), Wolf (37.14), Boer (37.28), Kodaira (37.29), Jing Yu (China, 37.31)

Best times, 2012-13: Lee (36.80), Thijsje Oenema (37.06), Richardson (37.12), Yu (37.21), Wang (37.23), Wolf (37.28)

2013 World Championship top 8: Lee, Wang, Fatkulina, Wolf, Oenema, Kodaira, Yekaterina Aydova (Kazakhstan), Richardson

2010 Olympic medalists: Lee, Wolf, Wang

1,000 meters

Gold: Heather Richardson (USA)
Silver: Brittany Bowe (USA)
Bronze: Olga Fatkulina (Russia)

Also considered: Sang-Hwa Lee (South Korea), Christine Nesbitt (Canada)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Richardson, Bowe, Fatkulina, Lotte van Beek (Netherlands), Lee, Margot Boer (Netherlands), Nao Kodaira (Japan), Ireen Wüst (Netherlands)

Best times, 2013-14: Bowe (1:12.58), Richardson (1:12.61), Wüst (1:13.33), van Beek (1:13.36), Fatkulina (1:13.40), Lee (1:13.66), Nesbitt (1:13.77), Boer (1:13.77)

Best times, 2012-13: Nesbitt (1:12.91), Richardson (1:13.09), Hong (1:13.64)

2013 World Championship top 8: Fatkulina, Wüst, Bowe, Nesbitt, Karolina Erbanova (Czech Republic), Richardson, Hong Zhang (China), Marrit Leenstra (Netherlands)

2010 Olympic medalists: Nesbitt, Annette Gerritsen (Netherlands), Laurine van Riessen (Netherlands)

1,500 meters

Gold: Ireen Wüst (Netherlands)
Silver: Lotte van Beek (Netherlands)
Bronze: Brittany Bowe (USA)

Also considered: Heather Richardson (USA), Yuliya Skokova (Russia)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Wüst, Bowe, van Beek, Skokova, Katarzyna Bachleda-Curus (Poland), Ida Njåtun (Norway), Claudia Pechstein (Germany), Ekaterina Lobysheva (Russia)

Best times, 2013-14: Wüst (1:52.08), Bowe (1:52.45), Richardson (1:52.55), van Beek (1:52.95), Skokova (1:53.87), Bachleda-Curus (1:53.95), Lobysheva (1:54.09), Njåtun (1:54.09)

Best times, 2012-13: Richardson (1:53.84), Wüst (1:54.67), Marrit Leenstra (Netherlands, 1:55.03)

2013 World Championship top 8: Wüst, van Beek, Christine Nesbitt (Canada), Diane Valkenburg (Netherlands), Kali Christ (Canada), Karolina Erbanova (Czech Republic), Skokova, Brittany Schussler (Canada)

2010 Olympic medalists: Wüst, Kristina Groves (Canada), Martina Sablikova (Czech Republic)

3,000 meters

Gold: Martina Sablikova (Czech Republic)
Silver: Claudia Pechstein (Germany)
Bronze: Ireen Wüst (Netherlands)

Also considered: Katarzyna Bachleda-Curus (Poland), Antoinette de Jong (Netherlands)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8 (3,000/5,000): Sablikova, Pechstein, de Jong, Bachleda-Curus, Jorien Voorhuis (Netherlands), Ida Njåtun (Norway), Wüst, Yvonne Nauta (Netherlands)

Best times, 2013-14: Sablikova (3:57.79), Pechstein (3:57.80), Wüst (3:59.45), de Jong (3:59.49), Voorhuis (3:59.51), Linda de Vries (Netherlands, 4:01.00), Njåtun (4:01.47), Bachleda-Curus (4:02.12)

Best times, 2012-13: Wüst (3:58.68), Pechstein (4:02.31), Sablikova (4:02.46)

2013 World Championship top 8: Wüst, Sablikova, Pechstein, Diane Valkenburg (Netherlands), de Vries, Bachleda-Curus, Stephanie Beckert (Germany), Bente Kraus (Germany)

2010 Olympic medalists: Sablikova, Beckert, Kristina Groves (Canada)

5,000 meters

Gold: Martina Sablikova (Czech Republic)
Silver: Ireen Wüst (Netherlands)
Bronze: Yvonne Nauta (Netherlands)

Also considered: Claudia Pechstein (Germany)

Best times, 2013-14: Sablikova (6:59.88), Pechstein (7:01.10), Nauta (7:01.62), Masako Hozumi (Japan, 7:01.76), four more Dutch skaters

Best times, 2012-13: Sablikova (6:54.31), Pechstein (7:01.05), Olga Graf (Russia, 7:01.38), Hozumi (7:01.61), Wüst (7:01.95), Stephanie Beckert (Germany, 7:02.52), Linda de Vries (Netherlands, 7:02.77)

2013 World Championship top 8: Sablikova, Wüst, Pechstein, de Vries, Beckert, Diane Valkenburg (Netherlands), Bente Kraus (Germany), Ivanie Blondin (Canada)

2010 Olympic medalists: Sablikova, Beckert, Clara Hughes (Canada)

Team pursuit

Gold: Netherlands
Silver: Poland
Bronze: Japan

Also considered: Canada, Russia

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Netherlands, Poland, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Russia, USA, Norway

2013 World Championship top 8: Netherlands, Poland, South Korea, Germany, Russia, Norway, Japan, Canada

2010 Olympic medalists: Germany, Japan, Poland (USA finished fourth after upsetting top seed Canada in quarterfinals)

BIOS

Men

500/1,000

Jamie Gregg (Canada): Third place in each of the two 2013-14 500s in Calgary. Didn’t race in last two stops.

Joji Kato (Japan): 500 specialist: 2005 world champion, two world runner-up finishes, 2010 bronze medal, best of 34.21. 1,000 best: 1:08.68.

Tae-Bum Mo (South Korea): Maybe a surprise in 2010, but not any more. Great at 500: 2010 Olympic champion, back-to-back world champion in 2012 and 13, 2012 World Cup champion, best of 34.28. Contender at 1,000: 2010 Olympic silver, second in 2013 worlds, best of 1:07.26 back in 2009). Could even race at 1,500: best of 1:42.85, also in 2009.

Michel Mulder (Netherlands): World Sprint champion in 2013. At 500: Second in 2012 worlds, fourth in 2013, best of 34.26. 1,000 best: 1:07.46. Also a former inline skating world champion. Athletic heroes include snooker player Ronnie O’Sullivan.

Ronald Mulder (Netherlands): Michel’s twin brother. Good start to 2013-14 season: first in Calgary, second in Salt Lake. 500 best: 34.25. 1,000 best: 1:08.46.

Keiichiro Nagashima (Japan): Two-time Olympian; silver medalist at 500 in 2010. 500 best: 34.24.

Jan Smeekens (Netherlands): Mostly 500: third in 2011 and 2013 World Championships; best of 34.32. 1,000 best: 1:08.89.

1,000/1,500

Zbigniew Brodka (Poland): Top eight at 1,000 and 1,500 at 2013 World Championships. Several World Cup podiums at 1,500 and 2012 season title. 1,000 best: 1:07.87. 1,500 best: 1:42.89.

Shani Davis (USA): Tons of medals in long career, including back-to-back Olympic golds at 1,000 and back-to-back silvers at 1,500. Has won both the World Sprint and World Allround titles in addition to several championships at 1,000 and 1,500. 1,000 best: 1:06.42. 1,500 best: 1:41.04.

Brian Hansen (USA): Competed in 2010 Olympics at age 19, winning silver in team pursuit. At 1,000: One World Cup win, best of 1:07.03. At 1,500: fourth in 2013 worlds, best of 1:42.16.

Denis Kuzin (Kazakhstan): 2013 world championship at 1,000 is by far his best result. 500 best: 35.22. 1,000 best: 1:07.71. 1,500 best: 1:43.60.

Denny Morrison (Canada): Two Olympic medals in team pursuit: silver in 2006, gold in 2010. Two world championships at 1,500 (2008, 2012). 1,000 best: 1:07.11. 1,500 best: 1:42.01

Kjeld Nuis (Netherlands): Best at 1,000: World Cup champion in 2012, world runner-up in 2011 and 2012, then fourth in 2013. 1,000 best: 1:07.02. 1,500 best: 1:42.92.

1,500+

Jorrit Bergsma (Netherlands): A couple of world championship medals. Also an accomplished marathon skater. 5,000 best: 6:06.93. 10,000 best: 12:50.33. Most importantly to American audience: He’s engaged to Heather Richardson.

Bob de Jong (Netherlands): Has all three Olympic medals at 10,000: gold in 2006, silver in 1998, bronze in 2010. 5,000 best: 6:07.43. 10,000 best: 12:48.20

Sven Kramer (Netherlands): 2010 Olympics: gold medal at 5,000, disqualified at 10,000 when coach incorrectly told him not to switch lanes. Also took 2006 Olympic silver at 5,000. His time would have been an Olympic record. Six-time world allround champion. 1,500 best: 1:43.54. 5,000 best: 6:03.32. 10,000 best: 12:41.69.

Seung-Hoon Lee (South Korea): Gold (10,000, albeit on Kramer’s DQ) and silver (5,000) at 2010 Olympics. Not bad for a former short-track skater. 5,000 best: 6:07.04. 10,000 best: 12:57.27.

Ivan Skobrev (Russia): Silver (10,000) and bronze (5,000) at 2010 Olympics. 2011 world allround champion. Third at 1,500 and 5,000 in 2013 worlds. Also at 1,500: second in 2012 worlds, best of 1:42.94. At 5,000: best of 6:08.77. At 10,000: best of 12:58.36. Nicknamed Scooby-Doo.

Denis Yuskov (Russia): Rebounded from long suspension for marijuana use early in his career. At 1,500: 2013 world champion, best of 1:42.36. At 5,000: fourth in 2013 worlds, best of 6:11.79.

Women

500/1,000

Olga Fatkulina (Russia): Competed in 2010 Olympics at age 20. 2013 world champion at 1,000. 500 best: 37.13. 1,000 best: 1:13.40.

Nao Kodaira (Japan): Not many notable results but good times: 37.29 in 500, 1:13.98 in 1,000.

Sang-Hwa Lee (South Korea): Olympic 500-meter champion and back-to-back world champion won the first seven 2013-14 World Cup races, setting a World record of 36.36 along the way. No one else is within 0.49 seconds the past two years. As overwhelming a favorite as you’ll find. Fewer results at 1,000 but has a best of 1:13.66.

Heather Richardson (USA): 2013 world sprint champion. From the unlikely home of High Point, N.C. Engaged to Dutch distance skater Jorrit Bergsma. 500 best: 36.90. 1,000 best: 1:12.61. 1,500 best: 1:52.55.

Beixing Wang (China): 2009 world sprint champion and five-time World Championship runner-up at 500, where she has a best of 36.85. 1,000 best: 1:13.98.

Jenny Wolf (Germany): Four-time world champion and 2010 Olympic silver medalist at 500. Best: 37.00.

1,000/1,500

Brittany Bowe (USA): Former college basketball player and inline skating world champion broke the world record in the 1,000 in November 2013. Not an international standout in the 1,500, but she broke the U.S. record in the same weekend. Bests: 37.32 at 500, 1:12.58 at 1,000, 1:52.45 at 1,500.

Christine Nesbitt (Canada): 2010 Olympic champion at 1,000. 2011 world sprint champion. 2012 world allround runner-up. Three-time world champion at 1,000; once at 1,500. 1,000 best: 1:12.68. 1,500 best: 1:52.75 (twice).

Lotte van Beek (Netherlands): Up-and-comer took silver in 2013 worlds at 1,500. Best in 1,000: 1:13.36. 1,500 best: 1:56.11.

1,500+

Katarzyna Bachleda-Curus (Poland): Has some team pursuit medals and some World Cup success at 1,500, where her best is 1:53.95. 3,000 best: 4:02.12.

Antoinette de Jong (Netherlands): Only 18. Close to contention at several distances but strongest at 3,000, with best of 3:59.49 and a World Cup podium.

Linda de Vries (Netherlands): One World Championship medal – bronze in 2012 1,500. Also fourth in 2013 allrounds. 3,000 best: 4:01.00. 5,000 best: 7:02.77.

Claudia Pechstein (Germany): Over 40 and still going, albeit after serving a two-year ban after a positive test for blood doping. That caused her to miss the 2010 Olympics. She competed in the previous four Olympics, winning five gold medals (four individual, one team pursuit). She took bronze in the 3,000 and 5,000 in the 2013 World Championships. 3,000 best: 3:57.35 (in 2006). 5,000 best: 6:46.91 (in 2002).

Martina Sablikova (Czech Republic): Gold medalist in 3,000 and 5,000 at the 2010 Olympics. Also took bronze at 1,500 in 2010. Plenty of world championships, including two allrounds. 3,000 best: 3:55.55. 5,000 best: 6:42.66.

Yuliya Skokova (Russia): Strongest by far at 1,500, with best of 1:53.87.

Ireen Wüst (Netherlands): Gold medalist in two Olympics at two distances: 3,000 in 2006; 1,500 in 2010. Also took bronze in 1,500 in 2006. Four-time world allround champion. Has world championships ranging from 1,000 to 3,000, plus a silver at 5,000. Bests: 1:13.33 at 1,000, 1:52.08 at 1,500, 3:58.01 at 3,000, 6:55.85 at 5,000.

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medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

2014 medal projections: Skeleton

Posted on by Beau Dure

Updated Jan. 14 and Feb. 4

Yes, it’s the sliding sport in which athletes do what American football players should not — lead with their heads.

The men’s World Cup circuit has had a distinct elite group. Only six men’s sliders finished on the podium in 2012-13 World Cup races — the Dukurs brothers, Alexander Kröckel, Alexander Tretiakov, and Christopher Grotheer. The latter only popped up once. But now the USA’s Matt Antoine is pushing into that tier.

The women’s competition is a bit more wide-open — 10 sliders had podium finishes in 2012-13.

The Olympics often lend themselves to surprises, anyway.

Downhill we go …

MEN

Gold: Martins Dukurs (Latvia)
Silver: Alexander Tretiakov (Russia)
Bronze: Tomass Dukurs (Latvia)

Also considered: Matt Antoine (USA), Alexander Kröckel (Germany), Frank Rommel (Germany)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: M. Dukurs, T. Dukurs, Antoine, Tretiakov, Rommel, Kröckel, Sergey Chudinov (Russia), John Fairbairn (Canada)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: M. Dukurs, T. Dukurs, Kröckel, Tretiakov, Rommel, Eric Neilson (Canada), Kristan Bromley (Britain), Christopher Grotheer (Germany)

2013 World Championship top 8: Tretiakov, M. Dukurs, Chudinov, Neilson, Rommel, John Daly (USA), Jon Montgomery (Canada), T. Dukurs

2010 Olympic medalists: Montgomery, M. Dukurs, Tretiakov

WOMEN

Gold: Noelle Pikus-Pace (USA)
Silver: Elizabeth Yarnold (Britain)
Bronze: Shelley Rudman (Britain)

Also considered: Anja Huber (Germany), Sarah Reid (Canada), Marion Thees (Germany), Katie Uhlaender (USA)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Yarnold, Pikus-Pace, Rudman, Janine Flock (Austria), Huber, Thees, Marina Gilardoni (Switzerland), Sophie Griebel (Germany)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Thees, Huber, Uhlaender, Yarnold, Reid, Mellisa Hollingsworth (Canada), Rudman, Cassie Hawrysh (Canada)

2013 World Championship top 8: Rudman, Pikus-Pace, Reid, Yarnold, Hollingsworth, Michelle Steele (Australia), Uhlaender, Thees

2010 Olympic medalists: Amy Williams (Britain), Kerstin Szymkowiak (Germany), Huber

BIOS

Men

Matt Antoine (USA): Moving into contention with some World Cup success, including an outright win in Lake Placid. (Yes, someone other than Dukurs, Rommel and Tretiakov won a race.)

Kristan Bromley (Britain): Earned a PhD with his research project, “Factors Affecting the Performance of Skeleton Bobsled.” Also the 2008 world champion and the 2004 and 2008 World Cup champion. Still competing past age 40. Engaged to women’s star Shelley Rudman, with whom he has a child.

Sergey Chudinov (Russia): Third place in 2013 World Championship was a bit of a surprise, though he had a World Cup win in 2010-11 on his way to fourth overall.

Martins Dukurs (Latvia): Four straight World Cups, 2011 and 2012 World Championship wins, 2010 Olympic silver medal, 2013 World Championship silver, won all but one race in the 2013 World Cup season and all but one the season before that. We get it. He’s good.

Tomass Dukurs (Latvia): Martins’ older brother had four podium finishes in 2013 to finish second overall. Third overall in 2012.

Alexander Kröckel (Germany): Youngster was third overall in 2013, up from fifth in 2012.

Jon Montgomery (Canada): Home-ice advantage certainly helped in the 2010 Olympics, where he beat the great Martins Dukurs by 0.07 seconds, but he has solid results elsewhere. Not recently, though — he won the 2011 season opener in Whistler and hasn’t been close since. Left off initial Canadian roster for Sochi.

Frank Rommel (Germany): The only person other than Martin Dukurs to win a World Cup race in 2012-13 season, though an early disqualification dropped him to fifth overall. Also the only person other than Dukurs to win a race in 2011-12 season, when he finished second overall. Third in 2011 World Championship.

Ben Sandford (New Zealand): An interesting wild card with a couple of podium finishes, including third in the 2012 World Championships.

Alexander Tretiakov (Russia); Bronze medalist in 2010 climbed to silver in the 2011 World Championships and took the 2013 world title. Also won the World Cup title in 2009. Won a World Cup race in Park City in December 2013.

Women

Mellisa Hollingsworth (Canada): Third overall in 2011 season. Second in 2012 World Championships. Only one podium in 2013 season. Long competition history — two-time World Cup champion, bronze in 2006 Olympics, disappointed to take fifth in 2010 on home ice with rough final run.

Anja Huber (Germany): 2008 world champion and 2011 World Cup champion. Had no wins in 2013 season but still finished second overall.

Noelle Pikus-Pace (USA): Eased back into competition in 2012-13 and ended season with four straight podiums, including a win at Sochi. Won the first three World Cup races of 2013-14. Sort of. She was DQd from the first one.

Sarah Reid (Canada): One win, two runner-up finishes to take fifth overall in 2013. Also third in 2013 World Championships.

Shelley Rudman (Britain): 2006 Olympic silver medalist took time off to have a baby (with fiance Kristan Bromley of the British men’s team), then was the overall runner-up in three straight World Cup seasons before winning it in 2012. One win in erratic 2013 season, but she won the World Championship. Flag bearer at 2010 opening ceremony.

Marion Thees (Germany): Edged Huber by four points to win 2013 World Cup title after finishing second in 2012. Also World Cup champion in 2009. World champion in 2009 and 2011.

Katie Uhlaender (USA): 2012 world champion. Two wins, two second-place finishes en route to third overall in 2013. World Cup champion in 2007 and 2008. Also chased Olympic berth in weightlifting. Two-time Olympian – best finish was sixth in 2006.

Elizabeth Yarnold (Britain): Won two of last four races in 2013 season, then on the podium in the first four races of 2013-14. Also third in 2012 World Championship.

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rugby

The rugby-NFL revolving door

Posted on by Beau Dure

While researching my next piece for OZY, I came across two stories of rugby players in the NFL — one on the way in, one on the way out:

– Hayden Smith, formerly a college basketball player, is returning to Saracens after playing for the New York Jets. Smith is from Australia but has played international rugby for the USA.

– Fleet-footed (4.22 40-yard dash!) Carlin Isles has signed with Detroit’s practice squad.

If you’re debating the world’s best athletes, you have to consider soccer and basketball players for the mix of strength, speed, endurance and skill their sports require. But you have to consider rugby players as well.

1
soccer

What you’ll learn from ‘Enduring Spirit’ — now in print

Posted on by Beau Dure

I had intended to make Enduring Spirit: Restoring Professional Women’s Soccer to Washington available in print in time for Christmas.  You’ll have to hurry and possibly pay a bit extra if you want it under your tree, but in any case, it is finally available on Amazon. (Yes, I had to design a new cover, which irritated me to no end.)

spirit-printWhat will you learn from reading the book that you probably didn’t see elsewhere? Here you go …

– How Spirit owner Bill Lynch summed up the team’s relationship with MLS club D.C. United.

– U.S. coach Tom Sermanni’s thoughts on the NWSL on Draft Day.

– Then-coach Mike Jorden’s initial reaction to the team’s draft picks.

– How the Spirit’s approach to free agency differed from that of other teams.

– Who made an impression at the Spirit’s open tryouts March 3.

– Assistant coach Kris Ward’s account of Lori Lindsey and Julia Roberts practicing with his D.C. United Academy team.

– The dynamic of Spirit practices, with Ward usually leading most of the drills and Jorden choosing his spots to speak.

– Why D.C. United Women assistant coach Cindi Harkes couldn’t commit to the Spirit.

– Which player wanted to check her official team photo to make sure she looked cute. (Easy one to guess.)

– Which player dominated the first official Spirit practice.

– How the Spirit adjusted when windy weather forced them inside in preseason.

– Why Real World star Heather Cooke found the camp atmosphere more intimidating than reality TV.

– Cooke’s car-intensive youth career and how she wound up playing for the Philippines.

– Which discovery player struggled in the second week of practice.

– Which player was so competitive that she refused to switch to an easier matchup in a running drill.

– Several players (Ingrid Wells, Kika Toulouse, Chantel Jones among them) comparing their experiences overseas to the Spirit environment.

– Lori Lindsey’s preseason thoughts on the team’s playing style.

– Which player worked in a sports bar.

– Which player worked as a dog sitter.

– Why Ashlyn Harris didn’t really need another training camp.

– Anson Dorrance’s defense of insisting on playing with college substitution rules.

– Why the Spirit didn’t object to college substitution rules in other preseason games.

– UNC’s Kealia Ohai on the differences between between the college game and the Tar Heels’ preseason loss to the Spirit.

– How Jasmyne Spencer was greeted in a preseason game at her alma mater.

– How Tori Huster adjusted to playing center back.

– Which player was most prone to cursing at herself in practice.

– How the Spirit prepared for the opener against Boston, including a couple of animated discussions about defensive tactics and a less-than-imposing wall on free kicks.

– Which vertically challenged Spirit player scored on a header over tall goalkeeping coach Lloyd Yaxley.

– Lori Lindsey’s toast after the opening draw with Boston.

– All about one of the most amusing supporting characters of the season — the bus driver on the first Boston trip.

– Which player plowed through New York Times crossword puzzles on the bus.

– Which player wasn’t a fan of the German people’s serious attitudes.

– How news of the Boston Marathon bombing affected the team as it traveled back from Boston.

– Which player looked like a Navy SEAL in an early-season fitness drill.

– Which player tried, in Lloyd Yaxley’s words, “Hollywood passes.”

– Julia Roberts on the difference between a big W-League team in 2012 and an NWSL team in 2013.

– Kika Toulouse’s approach toward making the team’s pregame music mix.

– Which player forgot to remove her warmup gear before going to check in to an early-season game.

– Which U.S. women’s team staff member visited an April practice.

– Which player was upset over a prank involving an autographed picture.

– Which player’s college choice was affected by the Eurosport catalog.

– Which player’s early playing experience was nothing other than “being thrown in the net by my brothers.”

– Robyn Gayle’s thoughts on staying in women’s soccer even years without a pro league.

That’s a partial list through April. I’ll add more later, but at least this gives you an idea.

It’s not an insider account of every team meeting. I was only invited to one, and it involved a fun game of charades.

It’s not an opinion piece. There’s a good bit of detail on the events leading up to Mike Jorden’s departure and a few other moves, and there’s a bit of analysis where needed. The game reports are pretty subjective. It’s not a point-by-point take on what the Spirit did right and wrong.

It’s a diary of the team and a collection of interviews with every player and nearly everyone involved. It captures their personalities, their struggles and those moments when things went well.

Enjoy. Print, Kindle, Nook — whatever you prefer.

0
soccer

Fun and frustration of voting on soccer awards

Posted on by Beau Dure

Even without Hope Solo’s Twitter jab at Julie Foudy, the voting for the U.S. women’s national team’s all-time Best XI was sure to be controversial, full of difficult cross-generational comparisons.

Michelle Akers was a certainty (the one voter who omitted her from his/her ballot should really speak up and explain why). But what about the other two-thirds of the Triple-Edged Sword from 1991 — Carin Jennings Gabarra and April Heinrichs? Do you take Alex Morgan ahead of them even though Morgan is still in the early stages of a surely great career?

How about Megan Rapinoe? The midfield competition is even tougher. If you go with a 4-3-3 to add a third forward alongside obvious choices Mia Hamm and Abby Wambach, you have only three midfielders, leaving Rapinoe to displace Akers, Kristine Lilly or Julie Foudy. And that omits Shannon Boxx and two-time Olympic hero Carli Lloyd.

And then you get to the choice that started all the debates, Solo or Briana Scurry. (Note the single ‘n’ in Briana. Now that she’s on the centennial celebration all-time Best XI, do you think we could spell her name correctly?)

My ballot had 10 of the 11 honorees: Joy Fawcett, Carla Overbeck, Christie Rampone, Akers, Lilly, Foudy, Hamm, Wambach, Morgan and Brandi Chastain. But it wasn’t an easy pick. I didn’t turn in my ballot right away — I slept on it and went back and forth on the Morgan/Gabarra choice. My last decision was to put in Chastain and go with a 4-3-3 formation rather than a 3-4-3, in which I would’ve picked either Boxx or Lloyd. (I hadn’t decided.)

Yes, I was debating whether to include the person who gave U.S. soccer its most indelible image AND played forward in a winning World Cup campaign AND was a defensive anchor for two Olympic champions as well as the ’99 Cup winners. That’s how difficult these choices got.

The voters clearly had the same questions I had. Among field players, the obvious picks of Fawcett, Overbeck, Rampone, Akers, Lilly, Hamm and Wambach got at least 46 of a possible 56 votes. Foudy, the captain of multiple Olympic and Cup triumphs, got 40, even though she pointedly omitted herself from her picks on ESPN. (In this politicized environment, I’d guess a couple of other people left her off their ballots for non-soccer reasons, as surely as some people used off-field issues as a tiebreaker between Solo and Scurry.)

Chastain and Scurry also got more than half the votes — 31 each. Then it got tough. Solo (24) actually got more votes than Morgan (15), but having two goalkeepers wasn’t an option.

The race for the 11th spot was a barnburner. Morgan won with 15. Gabarra had 13. So did midfielders Boxx and Lloyd, nearly pushing the final formation to 4-4-2. Heinrichs had 12. Tiffeny Milbrett, who lost some time in her career when she fell out with then-coach Heinrichs, had 10. Kate Markgraf, whose 200-plus caps and defensive steadfastness would make her an automatic pick in any other national team, got 9.

If you were picking a Best XX from this group, then Rapinoe (6) barely pushed ahead of Heather O’Reilly (5) and the lovely protest vote for Lori Chalupny (5). That’s a strong Best XXII.

So I feel relatively happy with this vote. I’ve seen one vociferous protest over Gabarra’s omission, and that’s a worthwhile lament. Scurry-Solo could be debated forever, though it’s probably not a good idea.

The men’s Best XI? I don’t envy those voters one bit. They’re judging players who pulled off astounding World Cup feats (and then had few other opportunities to play in noteworthy games) before most of the voters were born. How do you compare Bert Patenaude’s hat trick, the first in World Cup history, with Brian McBride’s decade of excellence? Some players in the Hall of Fame aren’t on the ballot.

Which brings me to the good I hope will come out of this Best XI discussion — better-informed Hall of Fame voting.

I’ve ranted many times about the high bar some Hall of Fame voters are setting. Those of us who go public with our ballots typically vote for five, six, even 10 people. Those who keep their ballots private are clearly less effusive.

Kenn Tomasch has a good archive of our voting shame. Earnie Stewart, the man who steadied the USA through countless World Cup qualification campaigns, needed several years to get in. No one made it in 2008, prompting the Hall to lower its acceptance threshold to 66.7%. And that’s how Joy Fawcett finally made it.

Fawcett was a unanimous choice for the Best XI. So are we finally getting smarter? Maybe not — the pool of voters for the women’s Best XI was carefully picked, with most of them having solid credentials in the women’s game. The Hall of Fame voters aren’t gender-specific — though we should note that Mia Hamm and Michelle Akers were still nearly unanimous first-ballot selections.

Now we’re having discussions. How do these players stack up? Which players did the Best XI voters consider that the Hall of Fame voters might not?

Maybe, just maybe, we’ve pushed voters to think a little more. We’ll see.

In the meantime, tread lightly on Twitter.

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