Month: February 2014

medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality, Feb. 11

Posted on by Beau Dure

Here’s what I hate about the Olympics …

Or maybe it’s just what I hate about American sports culture, where all of these athletes are invisible in the years between each quadrennial glitzfest …

An athlete can strive for years and become the best in the world, winning all sorts of international competition. But those competitions are hardly mentioned in the U.S. media. It all comes down to the Olympics.

And we’re so cynical in this country. “Oh, that person in all the ads didn’t medal? Must be overhyped. Or a choker. Major fail.”

Some athletes can come back four years later to try again. Some only get one shot.

In Kikkan Randall’s case, she’s the best freestyle sprinter in the world. But cross-country alternates between freestyle and classical in each Olympics. So her best event comes every EIGHT years.

Eight years. And it comes down to 0.05 seconds.

That’s the margin that kept Randall out of the sprint semifinals. She led her heat — featuring sprint stars Marit Bjoergen and Denise Herrmann — most of the way. When the big two went past in the stretch, she still seemed to be line to advance as a “lucky loser.” Then Italy’s Gaia Vuerich stretched past her. Not lucky at all.

These things happen. Everyone has a bad day. Freestyle skiers and snowboarders wipe out on jumps they land 80 percent of the time. Downhill skiers miss a little bump in the snow that costs them precious time. Endurance athletes misjudge their pace and give out of gas in the stretch.

All you can do about it and remind people how many GOOD days someone like Randall has had. She’s not overhyped. She’s a champion.

And that’s why I’ve spent years pushing for more attention to the things these athletes do outside the Olympics. (Maybe it would help if people would read this blog between Olympics! Or if we’d get major TV coverage of big events. The former is probably a little easier.)

Another hyped American, Sarah Hendrickson, also will be ranked far down the list. But she’ll have several Olympics ahead of her. And unlike Randall, she knows why her body let her down today. She blew out her knee a few months ago and never felt comfortable on it. She’s one of her sport’s pioneers, beautifully symbolized by her jump to open the first Olympic women’s ski jump today. Not the farthest jump of the day, but it was breathtaking.

Randall is also a pioneer. She’s pushing the new-ish discipline of cross-country sprinting, representing a new wave of athletes and new wave of Americans with dignity and heart. Let that be her legacy.

And don’t let this be a much of Ameri-centric melancholy. Every time some scrappy American wins an unexpected medal, some other country’s version of Kikkan Randall or Danny Davis sees something slip away. Somewhere, some Russian and German luge sliders are wondering how Erin Hamlin figured out the Sochi track so well. The Czech Republic’s Gabriela Soukalova will rue the letdown that saw Slovenia’s Teja Gregorin get away from her. Canada’s Kaya Turski and the USA’s Keri Herman will have to be happy for their teammates in slopestyle. Norway’s Marit Bjoergen … well, look, she can’t win everything, right?

If those athletes are better celebrated in their host countries, not just every four years but each year, terrific. Maybe we’ll catch up in the USA one day.

On to today’s medal count update and other bests and worsts:

CURRENT PACE

The original medal projections were: Norway 39, USA 35, Canada 30, Russia 26, Germany 23, Austria 22, South Korea 15, Netherlands 14, France 12, Switzerland 11, Sweden 10

If the rest of the projections were to come true, the final medal count would be: Norway 34, USA 31, Canada 29, Russia 28, Austria 23, Germany 21, Netherlands 18, France 13, Sweden 13, South Korea 11, Switzerland 11

DOWN

USA (-4 today, -4 overall): Yeah, it was a rough day. Shaun White had the top score on halfpipe (95.75), but he did it in qualifications. The much-maligned halfpipe in the Russian mountains chewed up several contenders, including the Americans.

Then you had Randall, Hendrickson and Heather Richardson all missing projected medals. Richardson was a shaky pick, though — the 500 isn’t her best event.

The good news: Erin Hamlin’s luge breakthrough and Devin Logan’s sharp silver in slopestyle.

The wacky news: The U.S. curling teams remain winless through five total games, but they lost one in style giving up a record seven points in one end. U.S. skip Erika Brown put it this way: “We knew if she got three it was doomsville, so it didn’t matter if she got three or seven. We were all in at that point.” USA Curling’s Terry Kolesar sportingly tweeted a picture showing how it happened:

https://twitter.com/terry_usacurl/status/433294127888097280/photo/1

Russia (-2 today, +2 overall): Back to Earth a little bit with disappointments in cross-country skiing and ski jumping.

UP

Slovenia (+2 today, +1 overall): Great day at the Nordic venue, with bronze medals in biathlon and the women’s cross-country sprint.

RIGHT ON TARGET

Germany picked up the expected three medals today, with Carina Vogt’s ski jump making up for the lack of a sweep in women’s luge. Canada took two instead of one in women’s slopestyle and now has nine medals, one off the projected 10.

HIGHLIGHTS

Best read: My former colleague Erik Brady put Kikkan Randall’s day in focus: “This is the flip side of joy, what it feels like when the dream disappears.”

Best near-misses (USA): Sophie Caldwell powered her way to the cross-country sprint final, and Susan Dunklee got as high as fourth in the biathlon before missing some shots.

Best halfpipe-construction insult: Danny Davis snapped a picture of organizers trying to “polish the turd.”

Most studious athlete: Figure skater Jeremy Abbott, who put the USA in a early hole in the team event, has left the Olympic Village to have less fun and more focus. And you thought it was hard to tear yourself away from the keg parties to study in college.

Speaking of the Olympic Village: Watch for falling lampshades:

Best reason to set the DVR: The Colbert bump!

Best figure skating moment: German pair Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy deserve a medal for their Pink Panther routine.

Best crowd: Yeah, women’s ski jumping … no one will go for it …

Best “Where’s Waldo?” impression: Christine Brennan captured Sarah Hendrickson in flight. Or so she says.

Scariest moment: Ever wonder what would happen if Evel Knievel fell short of the landing ramp? Canadian freestyle skier Yuki Tsubota could probably answer.

Worst analysis: Shaun White lost? Gotta be the hair.

Worst injury news: Liechtenstein’s medal chances (yes, they exist — both the country and the medal chances) took a big hit when Tina Weirather withdrew from the downhill.

(No Storify recap today. They’re a little awkward, don’t you think?)

FULL TABLE

(corrected — earlier version duplicated men’s sprint results as women’s sprint results. Apologies to Slovenia.)

[gview file=”http://www.sportsmyriad.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014-medal-projections-Feb11-1.pdf”%5D

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olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Ski jumping, women’s

Posted on by Beau Dure

Thirty women made history and ignored the advice of patronizing men, demonstrating that they can compete in women’s ski jumping without crumbling into pieces or destroying civilization as we know it.

Date: 11-Feb

Sport: Ski jumping

Event: Women’s normal hill (next time, can they also do team and large hill?)

Medalists: Carina Vogt (Germany), Daniela Iraschko-Stolz (Austria), Coline Mattel (France)

SportsMyriad projections: Sara Takanashi (Japan), Sarah Hendrickson (USA), Irina Avvakumova (Russia)

How U.S. fared: In some respects, it was their day. The USA led the way in the push to get this sport in the Olympics, sacrificing livelihoods and years of frustration to do so. They were also pioneers of the sport — Lindsey Van was the first world champion in 2009, Sarah Hendrickson claimed the first World Cup in 2012 and won the world title in 2013.

And Hendrickson had the honor of going first. It was a dubious honor in some respects — she had no World Cup points, so she was essentially ranked last. But no matter. History will record her as the first woman to take an official jump in the Games.

In terms of results, it wasn’t their day. Hendrickson isn’t all the way back from a devastating knee injury. She had a decent first jump, as if to make a statement, then fell back a bit on her second. She finished 21st.

Van has declined in form since her world title. She had two middle-of-the-pack jumps, yelled “I had fun!” to the camera and moved on, finishing 15th.

Jessica Jerome hasn’t been a contender. Her second jump had terrific distance (99 meters), but her landing wasn’t as smooth as she would have liked. She finished 10th.

But the sight of Hendrickson soaring through the air was a beautiful moment. She had overcome so much just to be there. So had everyone.

What happened: The big surprise was Russia’s Irina Avvakumova, who upset Sara Takanashi in a World Cup event in January. She was off the mark in the first jump and farther off the mark in the second.

Takanashi was only third after the first jump, trailing Germany’s Carina Vogt and France’s Coline Mattel.

As the second jump moved along, the historical aspects gave way to the competition. Jumpers go in reverse order of their current standings, so the first-jump leaders can take aim at the podium with the final action of the day.

Austria’s Daniela Iraschko-Stolz, fifth in the first jump, sailed 104.5 meters in her second — six meters farther than her first. Young Italian Evelyn Insam couldn’t match that.

Then it was Takanashi’s turn. The dominant Japanese teen has one World Cup title and is in line for a second. But she was second to Hendrickson at the 2013 World Championships. And with her 98.5-meter jump, she dropped behind Iraschko-Stolz.

Mattel, often third behind Takanashi and Hendrickson, did just enough to bump off Takanashi. Each of her two jumps was a little behind Takanashi’s in terms of distance, but she had better style points and Takanashi had wind adjustments.

Vogt had yet to win a World Cup or World Championship title. Her second-jump distance was only 97.5 meters, and she waited in suspense to see if her overall total would be enough. It was.

For Takanashi and other contenders, there was Olympic heartbreak. But they’ll have more opportunities to come. They’re young, and this sport is only going to grow.

Quote: “I think our battle to get the women into ski jumping became much more than ski jumping. It really became a women’s rights issue and a human rights issue because we were really fighting for all women in all sports and hopefully all aspects of life. Hopefully we have taught other girls and other young women around the world that if you really are persistent and never give up, fight hard – hopefully you don’t have to fight – but if you do, fight fairly and well and you can achieve your dreams. So go for it. That’s what we hope. Now we have to work on 2018 getting women on the large hill and a team event. As soon as Sochi is over we start working on that.” – DeeDee Corradini, president of Women’s Ski Jumping USA (sent via press release)

Full results

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olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Curling, day 2

Posted on by Beau Dure

A couple of contenders faced off, while it looked more and more like the USA will not be among them.

Date: 11-Feb

Sport: Curling

Event: Day 2 of group play, with two women’s sessions and one men’s.

How U.S. fared: Russian curling fans are a bit like Clemson basketball fans. They may not fully understand what they’re watching, but they’re going to bring the noise. Erika Brown’s rink took three in the third end for a nice early lead, but Russia stole two in the fifth to go up 5-4. The rest of the way, Russia got two with its hammers while the USA got one. Final: Russia 9-7.

John Shuster and the U.S. men shot a bit better, but China made the big shots and the USA didn’t. A wayward Shuster shot in the third gave China a good shot for three, which they barely converted. Shuster seemed to be in good shape for a steal or only conceding one in the fifth, but China tossed a fast-moving stone that somehow dislodged all the U.S. rocks while leaving two Chinese rocks in scoring position.

The U.S. women came back to face Britain, one of the tournament favorites. In the fourth end, someone on the team said, “Maybe we can hold her to two.” Nope. They gave up seven. The USA gamely played two more ends but gave up three more in the sixth, then conceded a 12-3 decision.

What happened:

– Morning session: Canada’s women could hardly have had a more emphatic win, trading doubles for singles with fellow contender Sweden before icing the game with three in the eighth end. Sweden conceded for a 9-3 final.

South Korea and Japan, not expected to contend, were tied 7-7 after seven ends. But South Korea scored two with the hammer, then stole one to put Japan in a big hole. With Japan needing a big three, South Korea instead stole two more to win 12-7.

Switzerland and Denmark had the game of the session, with each skip shooting a strong 85%. Switzerland had the hammer first, and with only one end blanked, they had it again in the 10th and won 7-6.

– Afternoon session: Other than the U.S. game, the men played some close ones. None was closer than the Canada-Sweden contenders’ showdown, where it all came down to one last shot in which Niklas Edin’s draw was just a hair closer to the center than the top Canadian rock. Sweden 7-6.

The last shot went the other way on another sheet, with Britain stealing one in the 10th to beat Germany 7-6.

The Norway-Russia game looked closer than it was. Russia needed four in the 10th end and got three for a 9-8 final.

– Evening session: The Britain-USA game was over early. So was Denmark-Japan, where Japan stole points in the second, third and fourth ends to take a 5-0 lead. They traded singles, then deuces, and then Denmark conceded down 8-3 after eight.

Switzerland scored two in the fifth and stole three in the sixth to take control against South Korea, which cut the lead to 7-6 but needed a steal in the 10th. Switzerland defended with the hammer and won 8-6.

Once again, the Russians played a dramatic encounter for the raucous home crowd. China led 6-4 into the ninth end but could only get one on a double takeout attempt, leaving the house open for Russia to score two and tie it up. But Russia missed a wide-open draw, leaving China in the lead with the hammer.

Russia did a nice job getting rocks in the house with guards out front. (Look, I can’t keep translating — you’re going to have to learn curling lingo.) But China made the clutch draw for the 7-5 win.

Full results | Men’s standings | Women’s standings

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olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Speedskating, women’s 500 meters

Posted on by Beau Dure

Russia’s Olga Fatkulina delivered a crowd-pleasing silver, Margot Boer extended the Dutch success with a bronze, but defending champion Sang-Hwa Lee beat everyone. We mean everyone. Her second heat was an Olympic record 37.28 — impressive considering the old record was in the altitude of Salt Lake City — and her total time of 74.70 was also an Olympic record.

Date: 11-Feb

Sport: Speedskating

Event: Women’s 500 meters

Medalists: Sang-Hwa Lee (South Korea), Olga Fatkulina (Russia), Margot Boer (Netherlands)

SportsMyriad projections: Sang-Hwa Lee (South Korea), Olga Fatkulina (Russia), Heather Richardson (USA)

How U.S. fared: Richardson was in range of the podium after finishing fourth in the first run at 37.73 seconds. But she was 0.29 seconds slower in the second run while other skaters improved, sliding to eighth. She’s better in the 1,000.

Brittany Bowe, also better in the 1,000, was fell back in 17th after the first run but improved a bit to 13th in the second. Lauren Cholewinski was 15th. Sugar Todd was 29th.

What happened: Richardson was in the 14th pair of the second heat but dropped off the pace set by Margot Boer one pair earlier. She knew at the finish she wasn’t going to medal.

The 15th pair of China’s Hong Zhang and Germany’s Jenny Wolf moved into the podium places, but that would be temporary.

Olga Fatkulina brought up the crowd noise with the 16th pair. And she delivered. Her time of 37.49 bested her first-run time of 37.57. Lee had gone 37.42 in the first run and would need another strong run to beat the home favorite.

Strong? Yeah, pretty much.

Full results

0
olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Biathlon, women’s pursuit

Posted on by Beau Dure

The USA’s Susan Dunklee got up as high as fourth, but biathlon stars Darya Domracheva and Tora Berger showed their class with powerful performances to take the top two places in the pursuit, with the bronze reserved for a long-serving veteran.

Date: 11-Feb

Sport: Biathlon

Event: Women’s pursuit (10k, start order determined by finish in the sprint earlier in the Games)

Medalists: Darya Domracheva (Belarus), Tora Berger (Norway), Teja Gregorin (Slovenia)

SportsMyriad projections: Tora Berger (Norway), Gabriela Soukalova (Czech Republic), Valj Semerenko (Ukraine)

How U.S. fared: Susan Dunklee was only 42 seconds back at the start after her strong 14th-place finish in the sprint. Sara Studebaker started 44th, 1:53 back. Annelies Cook started 53rd, 2:17 back.

Dunklee shot cleanly at the first stage and passed a couple of contenders, including Tora Berger. She was 10th after the first shoot and got as high as sixth before missing one of second-stage shots to fall back. She latched onto the contenders, though, and shot cleanly again at the third stage to move back into sixth. At the 6.9k mark, she was a stunning fourth. The official stats feed briefly showed her cleaning the final shooting stage, but no — she missed three, then fell back to 18th.

Studebaker missed three at the first shoot, then settled down to miss only two more and finished 51st. Cook also missed five on the day and finished 54th.

What happened: Darya Domracheva and Tora Berger had a bit of work to do from the start, taking the course a little more than 30 seconds behind sprint winner Anastasia Kuzmina.

And Kuzmina stayed away from the start. She took time on her fifth shot at the first stage, but she converted all five. So did most of the skiers behind her.

Domracheva reeled in Kuzmina through the second lap, then capitalized when Kuzmina missed. The Belarus skier took the lead, with France’s Anais Bescond and Italy’s Dorothea Weirer in pursuit. Kuzmina dropped to fourth. Berger shot cleanly but was content to be in a chase pack along with Gabriela Soukalova, who was making a charge after a disappointing sprint.

The first standing shoot separated the contenders. Domracheva came in, calmly knocked down all five, then skied away before the others had even started shooting. Kuzmina shot cleanly and was alone in second. Then came a pack of four, including expected contenders Berger, Soukalova and Ukraine’s Valj Semerenko … and the USA’s Susan Dunklee?

Domracheva left an opening in the final shooting stage, missing one shot. But she was hardly the only one to miss. Kuzmina missed. Berger missed. Soukalova missed. Dunklee missed three times.

Of the contenders, only Valj Semerenko emerged from the final shoot unscathed. But she was 36.6 seconds behind Domracheva, and she faded off the podium on the final lap.

Berger charged quickly into second position. Soukalova also was charging but had two more skiers to catch.

Domracheva was on a virtual victory lap by that point. She had time to soak in the roars as she skied to the finish with the flag of Belarus in hand.

Berger was easily in second. Third place went to veteran Teja Gregorin — a four-time Olympian (one cross-country, three biathlon) getting her first medal. Soukalova, Semerenko and Kuzmina followed.

Full results

 

0
olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Cross-country skiing, men’s sprint

Posted on by Beau Dure

Think short-track has crazy crashes? Take a look at the final of an eventful men’s sprint, in which several favorites fell short in elimination rounds, a couple more were wiped out in a NASCAR-style crash, and another literally fell across the finish line to take bronze.

Date: 11-Feb

Sport: Cross-country skiing

Event: Men’s sprint

Medalists: Ola Vigen Hattestad (Norway), Teodor Peterson (Sweden), Emil Joensson (Sweden)

SportsMyriad projections: Emil Joensson (Sweden), Petter Northug (Norway), Nikita Kriukov (Russia)

How U.S. fared: Andy Newell qualified 17th, Simi Hamilton 21st. Not advancing to the elimination rounds: Torin Koos (t-37th) and Erik Bjornsen (39th).

Hamilton was in the first heat and immediately broke a pole, as if extending the U.S. misery from Kikkan Randall’s shocking elimination a couple of minutes earlier. He got back in the mix but couldn’t fight through traffic at the line, finishing sixth in the heat.

Newell did well to get in contention in his heat, but he couldn’t catch Norway’s Eirik Brandsdal for second or hold off France’s Renaud Jay for third. The heat was fast, so Newell had a shot to go through as a “lucky loser” (the two fastest times aside among third- and fourth-place finishers), but three Swedish skiers took off fast in the next heat and bumped Newell out of contention.

What happened: It was a rough start for some of the contenders. Nikita Kriukov needed a photo finish just to get third in his heat, and he was quickly bumped out of lucky loser contention. Petter Northug was left in the dust in his heat, but it was fast enough to get him through. Emil Joensson was the exception, taking first in the fastest of the five heats.

Switzerland’s Dario Cologna defended his skiathlon title a couple of days ago after overcoming an ankle injury this season, but it was costly in the sprint — he fell twice in his heat and barely finished. Not his best event, anyway.

First semifinal: Russia’s Anton Gafarov fell on a sharp downhill turn and stayed down, coming into the stadium nearly three minutes after the leaders in an event that takes less than four minutes. The other five had a blanket finish — 0.76 seconds between first and fifth. Norway’s Ola Vigen Hattestad had a little bit of daylight for first, followed by Sweden’s Teodor Peterson and one more from each country — Norway’s Anders Gloeersen and Sweden’s Marcus Hellner. They went through as lucky losers.

The second semi was slower and more tactical. But Northug, the 2010 bronze medalist in this and four-time medalist overall in Whistler, still couldn’t get in and wound up 16 minutes back. Joensson and Russian favorite Sergey Ustiugov got ahead and held off a challenge from Austria’s Bernhard Tritscher.

The final: Joensson, who has tons of World Cup hardware but no success in the Olympics, dropped far back a few seconds in. Then a massive crash in the downhill turn! Hellner and Gloeersen fell separately, and Ustiugov tripped over Hellner. Joensson, who looked like he was on the verge of dropping out, suddenly pulled into third.

Hattestad and Peterson were ahead of the drama, and there was no way anyone would catch them. Hattestad got a comfortable lead (in sprint terms), and Peterson pulled up on the straightaway, unable to catch him. Then the improbable bronze for Joensson, who collapsed after the finish line, nearly 20 seconds back. Gloeersen came in fourth. The disappointed Ustiugov made his way across 30 seconds later. Then it was Hellner.

Joensson needed to be helped away from the line. The gold and silver medalists, though, felt no pain.

Full results

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olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Freestyle skiing, women’s slopestyle

Posted on by Beau Dure

Another big day for North American action sports athletes, with Devin Logan taking silver between Canadians Dara Howell and Kim Lamarre. But the competition had a lot of crashes — one horrific.

Date: 11-Feb

Sport: Freestyle skiing

Event: Women’s slopestyle

Medalists: Dara Howell (Canada), Devin Logan (USA), Kim Lamarre (Canada)

SportsMyriad projections: Kaya Turski (Canada), Tiril Sjaastad Christiansen (Norway), Keri Herman (USA)

How U.S. fared: Keri Herman squeaked through qualification and was all smiles at the start of the final, but her first run was a mess just a few seconds in, as she lost her balance on a rail and landed awkwardly. The rest of that run was mere practice. She didn’t look confident on her second run, missing a couple of landings and bailing out of the last obstacle. Kept her smile, though.

Julia Krass made a bit more of her first run but had a couple of shaky landings and a frightening finish, slamming her back and head to the snow off her last jump. Her second run was a series of awkward landings,

Devin Logan, got things right. The only hiccup in her strong first run was a little bit of shakiness off the last jump. She scored 85.40 — the leader at the time, then second when all the skiers had gone once. She went for broke on the second run and looked like a contender to move up until crashing on her last jump. We’ll see her again in the halfpipe.

Maggie Voisin, the youngest U.S. Olympian at age 15, was injured in training and could not compete.

What happened: Qualification had a shocker — Canadian favorite Kaya Turski fell on each run and didn’t make it through. With Norway’s Tiril Sjaastad Christiansen missing the Games through injury, that was two favorites out before the final.

The first run of the final was mostly a mess. After Herman slipped on her first rail, Switzerland’s Camillia Berra outright crashed at the same spot. Other skiers struggled to land their tricks.

Finally, Australia’s Anna Segal landed a 720 and a few other slick tricks without major difficulty. The 2009 X Games winner and 2011 world champion took first place at 77.00 points. Logan followed a couple of skiers later.

The best was last in the first run — Canada’s Dara Howell went big and clean for a 94.20.

The errors continued in the second run. Berra looked heartbroken after her run.  Segal couldn’t quite rotate her 720 and crashed, remaining in bronze medal position from her first-run score.

Sweden’s Emma Dahlstrom, fourth after her first run, had another decent but not spectacular run, adding a couple of points to her score but not quite enough to move up.

Canada’s Yuki Tsubota made a decent charge but crashed hard on her last jump, not quite reaching the downslope. The impact dislodged a ski and some other equipment, and the medical crew was out quickly and took her away on a stretcher.

Britain’s Katie Summerhayes showed remarkable composure as the next athlete to go after Tsubota’s crash, but she touched her hands down on a couple of landings, not quite clean enough for the podium.

That left two more Canadians — Kim Lamarre, who crashed on her first run, and leader Dara Howell. Lamarre simply nailed it — a couple of nifty tricks and impeccable form on her simpler efforts. She moved up to bronze, bumping Segal off the podium.

And that result clinched gold for Howell before her final run. The Canadian champion did a celebratory final run, getting nice air but not trying anything spectacular.

Full results

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medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 10

Posted on by Beau Dure

Norway continues to slide away from its projected record medal haul, but South Korea was the country that had the no-good, horrible, very bad day.

The USA may trail in the medal count but is still right on projection. So is Canada. You’d think North American bias would kick in at some point.

CURRENT PACE

The original medal projections were: Norway 39, USA 35, Canada 30, Russia 26, Germany 23, Austria 22, South Korea 15, Netherlands 14, France 12, Switzerland 11, Sweden 10

If the rest of the projections were to come true, the final medal count would be: Norway 35, USA 35, Russia 30, Canada 28, Austria 22, Germany 21, Netherlands 17, France 12, Sweden 12, South Korea 11, Switzerland 11

DOWN

South Korea (-3 today, -4 overall): The speedskating-mad nation is 0-for-4 in projected medals so far, missing out today on two medals in short-track and one in long-track.

Norway (-1 today, -4 overall): Ole Einar Bjoerndalen can’t win them all, but what happened to Emil Hegle Svendsen?

UP

Netherlands (+2 today, +3 overall): A sweep in a sprint speedskating event? Go figure.

Russia (+1 today, +4 overall): Missed out in biathlon but got one in short-track and grabbed a stunner in moguls.

RIGHT ON TARGET

USA (even today, even overall): OK, so today’s medal (Julia Mancuso, Alpine combined) came in a different event than the projection (Patrick Deneen, freestyle moguls). They still have two golds and three bronze, exactly as projected.

Canada (even today, -2 overall): Two medals in moguls? Called it. Medal in short-track? Gold instead of projected bronze.

HIGHLIGHTS

Biggest clutch performance: Julia Mancuso could stumble down every hill on the World Cup circuit, and you’d still have to take her seriously in the Olympics. She tore up the downhill phase of the combined and managed to hang on to the podium in the slalom.

Biggest disappointment: Neither U.S. curling team looked particularly good.

Wildest game: Men’s curling: Denmark 11, Russia 10. Going by Bill Mallon’s factsheet, I don’t think we’ve seen a higher-scoring game in the modern era.

Media trend we’re all sick of reading: Hey, curling is actually an interesting sport! Wow! We wouldn’t know that … if we hadn’t been alive in 2010. And 2006. And 2002. And for some of us, the years in between.

Best tribute/cry for help: Trade for Kessel! The other one!

Picture that says it all: NED, NED, NED

More on Storify

FULL TABLE

(minor correction to fix Italy/Japan confusion)

[gview file=”https://duresport.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014-medal-projections-feb10-1.pdf”%5D

4
olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Freestyle skiing, men’s moguls

Posted on by Beau Dure

Oh Canada. The two big favorites came through, and Russia picked up a surprise bronze. The two American contenders were undone by catastrophe and conservative jumps.

Date: 10-Feb

Sport: Freestyle skiing

Event: Men’s moguls

Medalists: Alex Bilodeau (Canada), Mikael Kingsbury (Canada), Alexandr Smyshlyaev (Russia)

SportsMyriad projections: Mikael Kingsbury (Canada), Alex Bilodeau (Canada), Patrick Deneen (USA)

How U.S. fared: Bradley Wilson got to the first final round (20 skiers) but crashed on his first landing. Incredibly, he popped up and still posted a fast time, but the damage to his score was done, and he didn’t advance.

Patrick Deneen, the 2009 world champion, bailed on his first qualification round but led the second qualifier (22.38 points) to cruise into the final rounds. He wasn’t great in the first final round (22.27) but advanced in ninth place. He turned it up a notch in the second final round (12 skiers), getting down the course quickly and surprising with a strong first jump to get 23.32 points. A conservative second jump nearly cost him a spot in the third and final final (sic), but he grabbed the last spot.

Deneen went first in the final and once again went very fast, racking up time points. But he had a difficult first landing and again had a conservative second jump, good for only 22.16 points.

What happened: It was a compressed day of competition — two qualification rounds (excluding the lucky 10 who qualified from the first round), then three final rounds. The qualification rounds were in soft snow, and many skiers struggled with their landings and turns. Australia’s Dale Begg-Smith, 2006 gold medalist and 2010 silver medalist, didn’t complete a clean run and failed to advance.

Canada’s Alex Bilodeau had a shaky run in the first final but got through in eighth place. Japanese contender Sho Endo did not, despite landing one of the more spectacular jumps of the competition, with more twists than most people can count with the naked eye.

In the second final, which cut the field down from 12 to six, Bilodeau came back with 23.89 points. Two of his Canadian teammates, Mikael Kingsbury (24.54) and Marc-Antoine Gagnon (24.16) bested that mark and left Deneen sweating on the qualification bubble. But the fourth Canadian, Philippe Marquis, came up short and looked surprised when the scores were announced. That left three Canadians, Deneen, Kazakhstan’s Dmitry Reiherd and Russia’s Alexandr Smyshlyaev in the final.

After Deneen’s run, Reiherd landed a fancy twisting second jump to move into first. Smyshlyaev beat that with a sensational run for 24.34 points.

Up came the Canadians. Defending champion Bilodeau set a very high bar at 26.31. But Gagnon spoiled the sweep possibility at 23.35, finishing behind Smyshlyaev. It all came down to favorite Kingsbury, who did exactly the same jumps as Bilodeau but was a little off on the first landing. It was 24.71 for Kingsbury, and it was a Canadian 1-2.

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olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Curling, day 1

Posted on by Beau Dure

The U.S. teams had a rough start and the Russian fans partied and squealed as if Justin Bieber was throwing the rocks as curling finally got underway in the 2014 Olympics.

Date: 10-Feb

Sport: Curling

Event: Day 1 of group play, men’s (two sessions) and women’s (one)

How U.S. fared: The men had a bye in the morning session, then fell in a deep hole early against Norway. John Shuster was visibly and audibly annoyed with his last shot in the third end (out of 10), which gave Norway an opening to shoot for three and a 5-1 lead. Shuster calmly drew for two in the fourth to cut it to 5-3 and held Norway to one in the sixth, but a missed double takeout attempt gave Norway a steal* of one and a 7-3 lead. Shuster wound up needing to steal three in the 10th, and that wasn’t happening. 7-4 final.

The women faced Switzerland (coincidentally, at the same time the U.S. women’s hockey team faced Switzerland). Erika Brown’s rink had lost four times to Mirjam Ott’s Swiss, but Ott was cold early, letting the USA lead 2-0 through three ends without having the hammer. A Brown blunder, both in tactics and execution, let Ott take three in the fourth. That gave Brown the hammer for the first time, and she missed twice, giving Switzerland a steal of two and a 5-2 lead. Ott took care of business the rest of the way for a 7-4 win.

What happened: Minor surprise in the morning session (men), with China taking down Denmark 7-4. Two favorites rolled — Britain got four in the sixth end and beat Russia 7-4, Sweden clinically beat Switzerland 7-5.

Canada, by far the biggest curling country, had a matchup that turned surprisingly dramatic at the end. Brad Jacobs’ rink had a comfortable 9-5 lead over Germany after seven, and Felix Schulze had to make a tough shot to claw one back instead of giving up three or four in the eighth. But Jacobs gave up a steal of two in the ninth to cut it to 9-8. Canada nailed things down in the last end to win 11-8.

In the afternoon (women), Canada made quick work of China, winning 9-2. The marquee matchup was Sweden and Britain, where the Swedes eked out a 6-4 win.

Russia, cheered by boisterous fans (perhaps disrupting the USA’s Erika Brown at times), took a 4-1 lead over Denmark but let the Danes steal a couple to tie it at 4-4. Young Russian skip Anna Sidorova had a shot in the ninth that could have gone for four but wound up with two. Russia nearly ran out of time in the 10th end but limited Denmark’s chances, actually stealing one for a 7-4 win.

The evening session, the second of the day for the men, had three fascinating games:

– Sweden beat Britain 8-4 in a matchup of medal contenders, scoring four in the eighth end to break open a close game.

– Canada found itself in a cagey matchup with Switzerland. After four blank ends, the Swiss scored three in the fifth. Canada answered with two, and they traded singles until the 10th, where Canada had the hammer and a 5-3 deficit. Canada’s Brad Jacobs was left with a takeout in which his rock had to stay in the house to score two and force an extra end. He made the takeout, but the rock … just … trickled out. Switzerland with a 5-4 upset. Please console your neighbors to the north.

– Russia’s men kept the cheers going by stealing three in the second end to go up 5-0 on Denmark. The Danes fought back to tie it 7-7 after seven ends. Russia took two in the eighth but whiffed on a big takeout attempt in the ninth, leaving two Danish rocks in scoring position. Danish skip Rasmus Stjerne Hansen made an easy draw for three to take a 10-9 lead into the 10th, by which time all the other games had ended.

And that game kept going, as Alexey Stukalskiy made a pressure-packed takeout through traffic in the 10th to force an extra end. But Denmark frustrated Russia’s efforts to take charge of the house, and when Stukalskiy’s last draw fell short, Russia conceded Denmark’s final shot.

Still a long way to go — they’ll play a full round-robin of 10 teams each before going to a four-team playoff. Maybe Russia’s fans will gain a bit more curling knowledge to go with their enthusiasm by the time we’re done.

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