Month: December 2013

olympic sports, winter sports

Big winter weekend for USA

Posted on by Beau Dure

No, I’m not talking about the fact that every tree and power line in the Mid-Atlantic is covered with ice right now. I’m talking about skiing, sliding and skating, where a lot of things went right for U.S. athletes two months and change before Sochi:

– Figure skating: Meryl White and Charlie Davis are hardly a surprise in ice dancing, though they have tough rivals for gold in Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir. But the record they set in winning the Grand Prix Final was a grand statement. (NBC)

Ashley Wagner also made it to the podium — perhaps all isn’t lost for the non-dancing U.S. skaters in this Olympic year after all. But she’s not totally happy with her skating, and rival Yuna Kim wasn’t at the Final. (NBC)

– Speedskating: 1-2 for Heather Richardson and Brittany Bowe. Get used to it. (NBC) Shani Davis lost his win streak but took third, and Richardson took another podium place as well. (NBC) And there was a surprise win for Joey Mantia. (NBC)

– Bobsled: Yes, it was on a home track, but this was total domination. Steve Holcomb won his third and fourth straight races. The U.S. women finished 1-3-4 in one race and 1-2-2 in another, with Lolo Jones and Lauryn Williams getting medals. (NBC with video of Day 1; NBC with video of Day 2; USA TODAY)

– Skeleton: Noelle Pikus-Pace said “disqualify THIS” and won in Park City. Matt Antoine took third. (NBC with video)

– Luge: Chris Mazdzer won the first World Cup medal for a U.S. man since 2007.  (NBC)

– Alpine skiing: Ted Ligety, as usual, won the giant slalom. Bode Miller’s second place was a little less expected. (NBC with video; USA TODAY)

And Lindsey Vonn got partway back with each race — 40th, 11th, fifth. (NBC with video | USA TODAY)

Not all is well on the Alpine team — after Ligety, Miller, Vonn and slalom specialist Mikaela Shiffrin, the rest of the U.S. skiers haven’t been competitive. But this weekend might make my ongoing medal projections look conservative for the USA.

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medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

2014 medal projections: Ski jumping

Posted on by Beau Dure

Updated Jan. 14

Finally, women have broken down the gender barrier that kept them from getting Olympic status for the times they fling themselves through the air and land on the snow.

The USA fought for this event for a long time (another Olympic story I covered for some time). They’re also quite good at it, especially if Sarah Hendrickson heals in time.

Away we go …

LARGE HILL

Gold: Gregor Schlierenzauer (Austria)
Silver: Kamil Stoch (Poland)
Bronze: Simon Ammann (Switzerland)

Also considered: Anders Bardal (Norway), Richard Freitag (Germany), Severin Freund (Germany), Anders Jacobsen (Norway), Noriaki Kasai (Japan), Peter Prevc (Slovenia)

2013 World Championship top 8: Stoch, Prevc, Jacobsen, Wolfgang Loitzl (Austria), Jan Matura (Czech Republic), Freitag, Ammann, Schlierenzauer

2010 Olympic medalists: Ammann, Adam Malysz (Poland), Schlierenzauer

NORMAL HILL

Gold: Anders Bardal (Norway)
Silver: Gregor Schlierenzauer (Austria)
Bronze: Severin Freund (Germany)

Also considered: Richard Freitag (Germany), Anders Jacobsen (Norway), Andreas Kofler (Austria), Thomas Morgenstern (Austria), Kamil Stoch (Poland)

2013 World Championship top 8: Bardal, Schlierenzauer, Peter Prevc (Slovenia), Freund, Morgenstern, Freitag, Taku Takeuchi (Japan), Stoch

2010 Olympic medalists: Simon Ammann (Switzerland), Adam Malysz (Poland), Schlierenzauer

TEAM (MEN’S LARGE HILL)

Gold: Austria
Silver: Germany
Bronze: Slovenia

Also considered: Norway, Poland

World Cup (Nation Cup) 2012-13 top 8: Norway, Austria, Germany, Slovenia, Poland, Japan, Czech Republic, Russia

2013 World Championship top 8: Austria, Germany, Poland, Norway, Japan, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Italy

2010 Olympic medalists: Austria, Germany, Norway

WOMEN

Gold: Sara Takanashi (Japan)
Silver: Sarah Hendrickson (USA)
Bronze: Irina Avvakumova (Russia)

Also considered: Coline Mattel (France), Anette Sagen (Norway), Jacqueline Seifriedsberger (Austria), Carina Vogt (Germany)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Takanashi, Hendrickson, Mattel, Seifriedsberger, Sagen, Katja Pozun (Slovenia), Vogt, Lindsey Van (USA)

2013 World Championship top 8: Hendrickson, Takanashi, Seifriedsberger, Mattel, Vogt, Jessica Jerome (USA), Sagen, Evelyn Insam (Italy)

BIOS

Men

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Gregor Schlierenzauer (Austria), Anders Bardal (Norway), Kamil Stoch (Poland), Severin Freund (Germany), Anders Jacobsen (Norway), Robert Kranjec (Slovenia), Peter Prevc (Slovenia), Richard Freitag (Germany)

Simon Ammann (Switzerland): In 2002, the Harry Potter lookalike stunned everyone by winning both gold medals out of nowhere. He won a bit more, then plunged into obscurity and did nothing of note in 2006. He won gold and silver in the 2007 World Championships and found consistency, winning the 2010 World Cup title. And he’s 4-for-4 in Olympic individual ski jumps in North America, winning twice more in 2010.

Anders Bardal (Norway): World Cup season champion in 2012 after never finishing higher than fifth in previous 11 seasons. Second in 2013 and won normal hill World Championship.

Richard Freitag (Germany): Youngster was sixth in 2012 World Cup at age 20. Sixth in each event in 2013 World Championships.

Severin Freund (Germany): Career-best fourth in 2013 World Cup season. Has not yet competed in Olympics.

Anders Jacobsen (Norway): Second in 2007 World Cup but hasn’t been higher than fifth since.

Peter Prevc (Slovenia): Competed in 2010 Olympics at age 17, placing seventh on normal hill. Breakthrough in 2013 with two World Championship medals and a couple of World Cup podiums on the flying hill in his home country.

Gregor Schlierenzauer (Austria): Won the 2009 World Cup title at age 19. Second overall in 2010 and 2012, then first again in 2013. Two bronze medals in 2010, then large hill World Championship in 2011. Not afraid to speak up — he refused to jump in the first event of the 2014 World Cup season in protest over the decision to proceed in strong winds. Then he won the next one, making up for a poor first jump with a whopper in the second round. He’s the favorite.

Kamil Stoch (Poland): Made it to top 10 on World Cup circuit in 2011, then moved up to fifth, then third. Continued his breakout with World Championship gold on the large hill.

Women

Sarah Hendrickson (USA): 2012 World Cup champion at age 17; second in 2013. Won 2013 World Championship. In 13 World Cup events in 2012, won nine and finished second three times. Faces a tough timeline to come back from a knee injury suffered in August.

Daniela Iraschko (Austria): One of the rare 30somethings in this sport; missed much of 2013 season with injury. 2011 world champion.

Coline Mattel (France): Fifth in 2009 World Championships — at age 13. Third in 2011, fourth in 2013. Inconsistent in 2012 World Cup season but much better in 2013.

Anette Sagen (Norway): Won five straight Continental Cup titles (2005-2009) before women earned World Cup status. World Championship best is third in 2009.

Jacqueline Seifriedsberger (Austria): Breakout year in 2013 – fourth in World Cup, third in World Championship.

Sara Takanashi (Japan): 2013 World Cup champion at age 16. Sees Hendrickson as an “icon rather than a rival.”

Lindsey Van (USA): First world champion (2009) in women’s ski jumping and one of the pioneers who led the fight for its inclusion in the Olympics. Injuries have held her back in recent years.

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medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

2014 medal projections: Nordic combined

Posted on by Beau Dure

Updated Jan. 14

In 2010, USA TODAY dispatched me to Whistler Olympic Park nearly every day. The biggest story I was supposed to follow: The USA looked likely to get its first medal in Nordic combined, the sport in which athletes test themselves on the ski jump and the cross-country course.

They did indeed get that first medal. Then their first team medal. Then their first gold.

And it’s a fun event to watch. The cross-country race start order is determined by the ski jump results. The farther back you are in the ski jump, the longer you have to wait while the leader leaves you in the dust.

The bad news: The USA is nowhere near that strength this time around. Two-thirds of the old guard is still around — Bill Demong and Todd Lodwick put off retirement a little longer — but they’re not top contenders. That said, the team can still be in the mix — Demong, Lodwick and the Fletcher brothers (Taylor and Bryan) were third in the World Championships. Each Fletcher has had a moment or two of World Cup success.

Away we go …

LARGE HILL/10k RACE

Gold: Eric Frenzel (Germany)
Silver: Wilhelm Dinifl (Austria)
Bronze: Jason Lamy-Chappuis (France)

Also considered: Bernhard Gruber (Austria), Mikko Kokslien (Norway), Akito Watabe (Japan)

2013 World Championship top 8: Frenzel, Gruber, Lamy-Chappuis, Watabe (Japan), Hideaki Nagai (Japan), Denifl, Sebastien Lacroix (France), Magnus Moan (Norway)

2010 Olympic medalists: Bill Demong (USA), Johnny Spillane (USA), Gruber

NORMAL HILL/10k RACE

Gold: Jason Lamy-Chappuis (France)
Silver: Eric Frenzel (Germany)
Bronze: Mikko Kokslien (Norway)

Also considered: Bernhard Gruber (Austria), Alessandro Pittin (Italy), Akito Watabe (Japan)

2013 World Championship top 8: Lamy-Chappuis, Mario Stecher (Austria), Bjoern Kircheisen (Germany), Frenzel, Haavard Klemetsen (Norway), Taihei Kato (Japan), Marjan Jelenko (Slovenia), Christoph Bieler (Austria)

2010 Olympic medalists: Lamy Chappuis, Bill Demong (USA), Alessandro Pittin (Italy)

TEAM (LARGE HILL/4x5k)

Gold: Germany
Silver: Norway
Bronze: France

Also considered: Austria, Japan, USA

World Cup Nation Cup 2012-13 top 8: Germany, Norway, Austria, France, Japan, USA, Czech Republic, Slovenia

2013 World Championship top 8: France, Norway, USA, Japan, Austria, Germany, Italy, Finland

2010 Olympic medalists: Austria, USA, Germany

BIOS

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Eric Frenzel (Germany), Jason Lamy-Chappuis (France), Akito Watabe (Japan), Bernhard Gruber (Austria), Magnus Moan (Norway), Tino Edelmann (Germany), Mikko Kokslien (Norway), Wilhelm Denifl (Austria)

Wilhelm Denifl (Austria): Career-best eighth in 2013, his 14th World Cup season. Never been to Olympics in all that time. Better on large hill, including third behind Gruber and Frenzel in 2013 World Cup event.

Tino Edelmann (Germany): Several World Championship medals, two in individual events. Top 10 in the last four World Cup seasons.

Eric Frenzel (Germany): 2013 World Cup champion. 2011 World Championships: 1st and 3rd. 2013 Worlds: 1st and 4th.

Bernhard Gruber (Austria): Best World Cup season finish is fourth. But he has an Olympic medal and a World Championship medal.

Jason Lamy-Chappuis (France): American-born. 2010 gold medalist; World Cup champion three straights years (2010-2012). Second in 2013 World Cup. Gold and bronze in individual events in 2013 World Championships.

Björn Kircheisen (Germany): Third in 2003 and 2006 World Cups. Fifth in 2012, 11th in 2013. Three-time Olympian. Several scattered World Championship medals.

Mikko Kokslien (Norway): Second in 2011 World Cup; third in 2012.

Magnus Moan (Norway): Silver and bronze at 2006 Games. Second overall in 2006 and 2009 World Cups; slipped to 12th in 2011 and 2012 but has a few wins.

Alessandro Pittin (Italy): Seventh in 2012 World Cup, buoyed by three straight wins at same venue (normal hill). Competed little in 2013 World Cup season.

Mario Stecher (Austria): Going for fifth Olympics. Individual World Championship silver medals in 1999 and 2013.

Akito Watabe (Japan): Second in 2012 World Cup, third in 2013.

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soccer

World Cup qualifying: Is there another way?

Posted on by Beau Dure

Mexico is in the World Cup, and Egypt is not. And that seems unfair.

It’s not that simple, of course. One incorrect meme making the rounds: Egypt won seven games and Mexico won only four. Actually, Mexico won 10, sweeping all six of their third-round games to get to the Hexagonal.

Still, we can shake our heads at the notion that Mexico feasted on New Zealand in a winner-take-all playoff while Egypt’s reward for a perfect round-robin was a playoff with Ghana. Shouldn’t we give teams more of a fair shake?

Sure. And we can also turn the last stage of World Cup qualifying into a worldwide spectacle. And clean up a few things along the way. Here’s the proposal:

1. Bag the early playoff rounds for the minnows in Africa, Asia, Oceania and CONCACAF. Cut the small teams out of Europe’s group play. Go to a Davis Cup system in which the minnows play in zones, with the winners advancing to a promotion/relegation playoff against teams that finish last in qualifying.

2. Make six-team groups the norm. Have four in Africa, six in Europe, two in Asia/Oceania and three in the Americas (see below). The top team in each of these 15 groups automatically qualifies for the Cup, along with the host nation. (That’s 16 teams.)

3. The last-place team in each group faces the promotion/relegation playoff against the best of the minnows.

4. The second-place and third-place team in each group, along with the Oceania winner, advances to a global playoff round. That’s 31 teams. Add one more wild card: The highest-ranked team that hasn’t already advanced. Seed these teams into eight four-team groups. These groups would play single round-robins. Each team gets one home game, one away game and one neutral-site game. Top two in each group (16 total) make the Cup.

ADVANTAGES

– We’re not tallying up goal difference against San Marino as a possible tiebreaker.

– The rest of the world has achievable goals. The World Cup final (the technical term for the 32-team extravaganza) may be out of reach, but promotion might be attainable. And the best of the minnows would still have a chance to face the sharks in meaningful playoffs.

– Last-place teams have incentive to play out the string.

– Standardization. No more unfair comparisons across groups to determine the best or worst second-place finisher in Europe.

– The qualifying process doesn’t drag out forever. It’s 10-13 games for everyone.

– More teams can earn spots in intercontinental play, so the continental quotas will be less meaningful.

– More teams get a second chance to qualify.

– Those neutral-site final games would be immense.

CONSIDERATIONS

– It’s a shame to lose the grand 10-team double round-robin in South America. It’s also unfair to cut South America down to one six-team group. One alternative: Have an eight-team group with the top two automatically advancing.

– Dividing the initial groups among continents will always be controversial. To see who could be in the main qualifying pool and who could be out under this scheme, let’s use the FIFA rankings — they’re flawed, but they’ll give us a rough idea for this hypothetical. We’ll say it’s 2018, so Russia gets the automatic bid as host.

Main pool

Includes a few ranking numbers to show which teams we’re getting. For Europe and Africa, the last six are split off with slashes.

Europe (6 groups): Spain, Germany, Portugal, Italy, Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, England, Croatia, Ukraine, France, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Denmark, Sweden, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Serbia, Romania, Scotland, Armenia, Turkey, Hungary, Austria, Iceland, Montenegro, Norway, Wales, Albania, Slovakia (overall rank: 60) // Israel (62), Finland (64), Ireland (67), Bulgaria (76), Poland (78), Belarus (82)

Americas (3 groups): Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay, Brazil, USA, Chile, Mexico, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama, Peru, Honduras, Cuba, Paraguay, Bolivia (69), Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago (79). (If you prefer the Elo rating, substitute El Salvador and Jamaica for Cuba and Haiti.)

Africa (4 groups): Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Algeria, Nigeria, Egypt, Cape Verde Islands, Mali, Tunisia, Cameroon, Burkina Faso, South Africa, Libya (63), Senegal, Guinea, Zambia, Sierra Leone, Morocco, Togo (77) // Gabon (80), Congo DR (83), Congo (84), Uganda (86), Angola (89), Ethiopia (93). (If you prefer Elo, then put Benin and Kenya in place of Sierra Leone and Congo.)

Asia/Oceania (2 groups): Iran, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Uzbekistan, Jordan, UAE, Oman, New Zealand (91), China (93), Saudi Arabia (99), Qatar (103). (Elo would argue for Kuwait ahead of Qatar.)

Top Zonal Pools

Europe: Only 16 countries left, so everyone on down to San Marino should get into the mix. Top teams: Macedonia (84), Northern Ireland (90), Azerbaijan (95), Estonia (96), Moldova (97), Georgia (101), Lithuania (102), Latvia (119).

Americas: For now, it’s all CONCACAF, starting with Jamaica (81), Dominican Republic (88), El Salvador (91), Antigua and Barbuda (109), Canada (114), Guatemala (115). We could make three four-team groups by adding Grenada (130), Suriname, St. Kitts and Nevis, Guyana, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Puerto Rico (152).

Asia/Oceania: Two groups from Kuwait (106), Iraq, North Korea, Tajikistan, Bahrain, New Caledonia (122), Lebanon, Afghanistan (129).

Africa: Four good four-team groups out of Botswana (98), Benin, Niger, Liberia, Zimbabwe, Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Burundi, Kenya, Mozambique, Malawi, Tanzania, Namibia, Rwanda, Sudan, Gambia (134).

Third tier

Americas: Belize (157) and 14 teams ranked 160 or worse.

Africa: Lesotho (138) is the best of the 14 remaining nations, some of whom will struggle to field teams due to political reality.

Asia: This could be tricky — 28 teams, including some globally significant nations such as Philippines (133), Syria (135), Thailand (142), Vietnam (158) and Indonesia (162). And is India (148) really that bad, even with a substantial percentage of the world’s population?

Oceania: Tahiti (141), Solomon Islands (171) and the other seven teams could play off for an Asia/Oceania playoff spot.

ALTERNATIVES

– Add one more group per continent for a total of 19. The winners (19) and the host nation take the first 20 spots in the Cup. Then the second-place teams go to the playoff round, along with the five highest-ranked third-place teams. That makes six groups of four, and the top two in each (12 total) go to the Cup. The advantage there is that more teams will be in the main qualifying pool. The disadvantage: We have to use the rankings to decide among third-place teams.

– Single-elimination, FA Cup or U.S. Open Cup-style! Wouldn’t be fair, but it’d be fun!

3
medal projections, olympic sports

2014 medal projections: Luge

Posted on by Beau Dure

Updated Jan. 14 and Feb. 4

Germany.

Oh, you want more detail? OK. But anyone who makes the German team (only three spots in individual races, two in doubles) is a contender. The German men took the top four places in the 2013 World Championships. One of them will miss out.

And without any proven contenders who have emerged in the last four years, we’re looking at the best possible result for Germany: men’s sweep, women’s sweep, 1-2 in doubles, relay win. (The relay is a new Olympic event.)

MEN

Gold: Felix Loch (Germany)
Silver: David Möller (Germany)
Bronze: Dominik Fischnaller (Italy)

Also considered: Albert Demchenko (Russia), Andi Langenhan (Germany), Chris Mazdzer (USA), Armin Zöggeler (Italy)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Loch, Zöggeler, Fischnaller, Moller, Mazdzer, Langenhan, Samuel Edney (CAN), Wolfgang Kindl (AUT)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Loch, Langenhan, Möller, Zöggeler, Demchenko, Johannes Ludwig (Germany), Fischnaller, David Mair (Italy)

2013 World Championship top 8: Loch, Langenhan, Ludwig, Möller, Edney, Mazdzer, Demchenko, Kindl

2010 Olympic medalists: Loch, Möller, Zöggeler

WOMEN

Gold: Natalie Geisenberger (Germany)
Silver: Tatjana Hüfner (Germany)
Bronze: Anke Wischnewski (Germany)

Also considered: Alex Gough (Canada), Erin Hamlin (USA), Kate Hansen (USA), Tatiana Ivanova (Russia)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Geisenberger, Gough, Hüfner, Wischnewski, Dajana Eitberger (GER), Hamlin, Hansen, Ivanova

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Geisenberger, Wischnewski, Hüfner, Gough, Ivanova, Julia Clukey (USA), Hamlin, Sandra Gasparini (Italy)

2013 World Championship top 8: Geisenberger, Hüfner, Gough, Wischnewski, Aileen Frisch (Germany), Hamlin, Kimberley MacRae (Canada), Arianne Jones (Canada)

2010 Olympic medalists: Hüfner, Nina Reithmayer (Austria), Geisenberger

DOUBLES

Gold: Tobias Wendl/Tobias Arlt (Germany)
Silver: Toni Eggert/Sascha Benecken (Germany)
Bronze: Andreas Linger/Wolfgang Linger (Austria)

Also considered: Christian Oberstolz/Patrick Gruber (Italy), Peter Penz/Georg Fischler (Austria), Andris Sic/Juris Sic (Latvia), Tristan Walker/Justin Smith (Canada)

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Wendl/Arlt, Eggert/Benecken, Oberstolz/Gruber, Penz/Fischler, Linger/Linger, Walker/Smith, Vladislav Yuzhakov/Vladimir Makhnutin (Russia)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Wendl/Arlt, Eggert/Benecken, Penz/Fischler, Oberstolz/Gruber, Sic/Sic, Rieder/Rastner (Italy), Walker/Smith

2013 World Championship top 8: Wendl/Arlt, Eggert/Benecken, Linger/Linger, Walker/Smith, Penz/Fischler, Sic/Sic, Oberstolz/Gruber, Yuzhakov/Makhnutin (Russia)

2010 Olympic medalists: Linger/Linger, Sic/Sic, Leitner/Resch (Germany)

RELAY (new event)

Gold: Germany
Silver: Italy
Bronze: Russia

Also considered: Austria, Canada, Latvia, USA

World Cup 2013-14 top 8: Germany, Canada, USA, Italy, Latvia, Austria, Russia, Slovakia

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Germany (won all six), Italy, USA, Canada, Russia, Austria, Latvia, Romania

2013 World Championship top 8: Germany, Canada, Latvia, Austria, USA, Italy, Russia, Poland

BIOS

Men

Albert Demchenko (Russia): Fourth in 2010 Olympics. Silver medal in 2006 Olympics. Second in 2012 World Championships – best-ever finish, at age 40.

Andi Langenhan (Germany): On the podium in three of the last five world championships. Runner-up each of the last two World Cup seasons.

Felix Loch (Germany): Olympic champion. Four of the last five world championships (runner-up in 2011). Back-to-back World Cup champion.

David Möller (Germany): 2004 and 2007 world champion. 2010 Olympic silver medalist. World Cup seasons since 2004: 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, (not listed), 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 4th, 3rd, 3rd.

Armin Zöggeler (Italy): Olympic gold medalist in 2002 and 2006; silver in 1998; bronze in 1994 and 2010. World champion in 1995, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005 and 2011. Nine-time World Cup champion. He’ll be 40 in Sochi.

Women

Natalie Geisenberger (Germany): World champion in 2013 after three straight runner-up finishes (2008, 2009, 2011) and a third-place finish in 2012. World Cup champion in 2013 after four straight runner-up finishes. Third in 2010 Olympics. Finally her time to take throne from Hüfner?

Alex Gough (Canada): Third place in 2011 and 2013 world championships.

Erin Hamlin (USA): Only American to win world championship (2009).

Tatjana Hüfner (Germany): World champion in 2007, 2008, 2011 and 2012; runner-up in 2013. World Cup champion five straight years, from 2008 to 2012.

Tatiana Ivanova (Russia): World championship runner-up in 2012.

Anke Wischnewski (Germany): Best World Cup season (second overall) in 2013 at age 35. Five top-fives in World Championships.

Doubles

Toni Eggert/Sascha Benecken (Germany): 2012 and 2013 world championship runner-up.

Andreas Linger/Wolfgang Linger (Austria): 2006 and 2010 Olympic champions. 2011 and 2012 world champions; third in 2013. 2012 World Cup champions.

Christian Oberstolz/Patrick Gruber (Italy): Fifth and fourth in last two Olympics. 2005 and 2009 World Cup champions. One World Championship medal (silver, 2011).

Andris Sic/Juris Sic (Latvia): Never better than sixth in World Cup season but second in 2010 Games and third in 2011 World Championships.

Tobias Wendl/Tobias Arlt (Germany): Sadly, no Tobias Funke. 2013 world champions. World Cup champions in 2011 and 2013; second in 2012.

2
medal projections, olympic sports, winter sports

2014 medal projections: Freestyle skiing

Posted on by Beau Dure

Updated Jan. 14 and 21 and Feb. 5

Want new events? We’ve got your new events right here — slopestyle and halfpipe. They’re not just for snowboarders any more.

Yes, the X Games-ification of the Olympics continues, and that might mean more medal opportunities for the USA. But the rest of the world has a pretty good headstart, so don’t count on it.

Unlike some of the sports we’ve been covering, there’s very little overlap between events here. If you do aerials, you don’t do moguls. Some halfpipe skiers do slopestyle, and vice versa, but that’s about it. So the formatting here will be slightly different.

One neat thing to note: The World Cup stopped at the Bird’s Nest in Beijing in December for an aerials competition. I can’t think of another venue to host Olympic track and field and World Cup freestyle skiing.

One sad thing to note: This sport has been struck by tragedy in the last Olympic cycle. Aerials silver medalist Jeret “Speedy” Peterson took his own life in 2011. Then halfpipe pioneer Sarah Burke died in a training accident in 2012.

To the slopes, moguls, aerial ramps and halfpipes we go …

MEN

Aerials

Gold: Qi Guangpu (China)
Silver: Jia Zongyang (China)
Bronze: Travis Gerrits (Canada)

Also considered: Alexei Grishin (Belarus), Anton Kushnir (Belarus). Removed Dylan Ferguson (USA), who didn’t qualify, and Olivier Rochon (Canada), who’s injured.

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Jia Zongyang (China), David Morris (Australia), Qi Guangpu (China), Ferguson, Travis Gerrits (Canada), Dmitri Dashinski (Belarus), Maxim Gustik (Belarus), Denis Osipau (Belarus)

2013 World Championship top 8: Qi, Gerrits, Jia, Liu Zhongqing (China), Morris, Oleksandr Abramenko (Ukraine), Christopher Lambert (Switzerland), Wu Chao (China)

2010 Olympic medalists: Grishin, Jeret “Speedy” Peterson (USA), Liu Zhongqing (China)

Moguls

Gold: Mikael Kingsbury (Canada)
Silver: Alex Bilodeau (Canada)
Bronze: Patrick Deneen (USA)

Also considered: Sho Endo (Japan), Bradley Wilson (USA)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Kingsbury, Bilodeau, Deneen, Wilson, Marc-Antoine Gagnon (Canada), Endo, Philippe Marquis (Canada), Dylan Walczyk (USA)

2013 World Championship top 8 (moguls): Kingsbury, Bilodeau, Deneen, Matt Graham (Australia), Jae-Woo Choi (South Korea), Per Spett (Sweden), Brodie Summers (Australia), Wilson

2013 World Championship top 8 (dual moguls): Bilodeau, Kingsbury, Deneen, Spett, Endo, Sam Hall (Australia), Marquis, Jimi Salonen (Finland)

2010 Olympic medalists: Bilodeau, Dale Begg-Smith (Australia), Bryon Wilson (USA)

Skicross

Gold: Alex Fiva (Switzerland)
Silver: Dave Duncan (Canada)
Bronze: Andreas Matt (Austria)

Also considered: Jean Frederic Chapuis (France), Chris Del Bosco (Canada), Filip Flisar (Slovenia), Victor Oehling Norberg (Sweden)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Fiva, Armin Niederer (Switzerland), Norberg, Chapuis, Brady Leman (Canada), Flisar, Tomas Kraus (Czech Republic), Jouni Pellinen (Finland)

2013 World Championship top 8: Chapuis, Bastien Midol (France), John Teller (USA), Pellinen, Flisar, Del Bosco, Anton Grimus (Australia), Marco Tomasi (Italy)

2012 Winter X Games: Del Bosco, Flisar, Duncan, Pellinen

2010 Olympic medalists: Michael Schmid (Switzerland), Matt, Audun Groenvold (Norway)

Slopestyle

Gold: Nick Goepper (USA)
Silver: Gus Kenworthy (USA)
Bronze: James Woods (Britain)

Also considered: Bobby Brown (USA), Joss Christiansen (USA), Oscar Wester (Sweden). Removed Tom Wallisch (USA), who didn’t qualify

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Woods, Johan Berg (Norway), Oscar Wester (Sweden), Alex Beaulieu-Marchand (Canada), Lyman Currier (USA), Fabian Boesch (Switzerland), Laurent de Martin (Switzerland), Jonas Hunziker (Switzerland)

2013 World Championship top 8: Wallisch, Woods, Goepper, Andreas Haatveit (Norway), Antoine Adelisse (France), Kenworthy, Wester, Beau-James Wells (New Zealand)

2013 X Games Aspen medalists: Goepper, Henrik Harlaut (Sweden), Woods

2013 X Games Tignes medalists: McRae Williams (USA), Jossi Wells (New Zealand), Kenworthy

Halfpipe

Gold: David Wise (USA)
Silver: Torin Yater-Wallace (USA)
Bronze: Mike Riddle (Canada)

Also considered: Justin Dorey (Canada), Thomas Krief (France), Kevin Rolland (France)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Riddle, Yater-Wallace, Wise, Aaron Blunck (USA), Krief, Antti-Jussi Kemppainen (Finland), Gus Kenworthy (USA), Matt Margetts (Canada)

2013 World Championship top 8: Wise, Yater-Wallace, Krief, Riddle, Kemppainen, Blunck, Kevin Rolland (France), Simon Dumont (USA)

2013 X Games Aspen medalists: Wise, Yater-Wallace, Dumont

2013 X Games Tignes medalists: Yater-Wallace, Wise, Rolland

WOMEN

Aerials

Gold: Xu Mengtao (China)
Silver: Lydia Lassila (Australia)
Bronze: Danielle Scott (Australia)

Also considered: Ashley Caldwell (USA), Emily Cook (USA), pretty much anyone else from China or Australia who makes the team

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Xu, Cook, Lassila, Laura Peel (Australia), Zhang Xin (China), Yang Yu (China), Nadiya Didenko (Ukraine), Scott

2013 World Championship top 8: Xu, Veronika Korsunova (Russia), Scott, Xu Sicun (China), Lassila, Samantha Wells (Australia), Tanja Schaerer (Switzerland), Peel

2010 Olympic medalists: Lassila, Li Nina (China), Guo Xinxin (China)

Moguls

Gold: Hannah Kearney (USA)
Silver: Justine Dufour-Lapointe (Canada)
Bronze: Heather McPhie (USA)

Also considered: Chloe Dufour-Lapointe (Canada), Miki Ito (Japan)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Kearney, J. Dufour-Lapointe, McPhie, Eliza Outtrim (USA), C. Dufour-Lapointe, Ito, Aiko Uemura (Japan), Nikola Sudova (Czech Republic)

2013 World Championship top 8 (moguls): Kearney, Ito, J. Dufour-Lapointe, McPhie, Uemura, Arisa Murata (Japan), Sudova, C. Dufour-Lapointe

2013 World Championship top 8 (dual moguls): C. Dufour-Lapointe, Ito, Kearney, McPhie, Murata, Sudova, Andi Naude (Canada), Britteny Cox (Australia)

2010 Olympic medalists: Kearney, Jennifer Heil (Canada), Shannon Bahrke (USA)

Skicross

Gold: Fanny Smith (Switzerland)
Silver: Ophelie David (France)
Bronze: Marielle Thompson (Canada)

Also considered: Katrin Mueller (Switzerland), Kelsey Serwa (Canada)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Smith, David, Marielle Berger Sabbatel (France), Serwa, Mueller, Marte Gjefsen (Norway), Thompson, Georgia Simmerling (Canada)

2013 World Championship top 8: Smith, Thompson, David, Jorinde Mueller (Switzerland), Anna Woerner (Germany), Katrin Ofner (Austria), Alizee Baron (France), Katya Crema (Australia)

2012 Winter X Games: Gjefsen, Hedda Berntsen (Norway), Jenny Owens (Australia)

2010 Olympic medalists: Ashleigh McIvor (Canada), Berntsen, Marion Josserand (France)

Slopestyle

Gold: Kaya Turski (Canada)
Silver: Tiril Sjaastad Christiansen (Norway)
Bronze: Keri Herman (USA)

Also considered: Dara Howell (Canada), Devin Logan (USA)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Herman, Christiansen, Howell, Anna Segal (Australia), Alexi Micinski (USA), Anna Willcox-Silfverberg (New Zealand), Dominique Ohaco (Chile), Chiho Takao (Japan)

2013 World Championship top 8: Turski, Howell, Grete Eliassen (USA), Katie Summerhayes (Britain), Yuki Tsubota (Canada), Micinski, Jamie Crane-Mauzy (USA), Natalia Slepecka (Slovakia)

2013 X Games Aspen medalists: Christiansen, Turski, Howell

2013 X Games Tignes medalists: Turski, Christiansen, Howell

Halfpipe

Gold: Virginie Faivre (Switzerland)
Silver: Roz Groenewoud (Canada)
Bronze: Maddie Bowman (USA)

Also considered: Marie Martinod (France), Ayana Onozuka (Japan)

World Cup 2012-13 top 8: Faivre, Groenewoud, Onozuka, Bowman, Mirjam Jaeger (Switzerland), Keltie Hansen (Canada), Annalisa Drew (USA), Katrien Aerts (Belgium)

2013 World Championship top 8: Faivre, Anais Caradeux (France), Onozuka, Manami Mitsuboshi (Japan), Martinod, Angeli Vanlaanen (USA), Hansen, Jaeger

2013 X Games Aspen medalists: Bowman, Groenewoud, Megan Gunning

2013 X Games Tignes medalists: Martinod, Caradeux, Bowman

BIOS

Men

Aerials

Dylan Ferguson (USA): Back-to-back fourth-place World Cup seasons. Missed 2010 Olympics after complications with his appendix. Controversially omitted from team.

Travis Gerrits (Canada): Breakthrough season in 2013: Fifth in World Cup, second in World Championships.

Qi Guangpu (China): 2011 World Cup champion, 2013 world champion (second in 2011).

David Morris (Australia): Second in 2013 World Cup.

Jia Zongyang (China): Last four World Cup seasons: third, fourth, second, first.

Moguls

Alex Bilodeau (Canada): Olympic champion. 2009 World Cup champion; second in 2011 and 2013. Back-to-back-to-back world champion in dual moguls; back-to-back runner-up in moguls.

Patrick Deneen (USA): Top four in last three World Cup seasons. 2009 world champion.

Sho Endo (Japan): Good year in 2013 – sixth in World Cup, fifth in dual moguls at World Championships.

Mikael Kingsbury (Canada): Back-to-back World Cup champion, the first at age 19. Four straight podiums in 2011 and 2013 World Championship moguls/dual moguls.

Bradley Wilson (USA): Fourth in 2013 World Cup at age 20.

Skicross

Jean Frederic Chapuis (France): Some decent results then a big bang to end the 2013 season — world championship, third and first in last two World Cup races.

Chris Del Bosco (Canada): Two-time X Games champion and 2011 world champion. Second in World Cup three straight years (2009-11). Not too active in 2013 but was second in World Cup race in Sochi.

Dave Duncan (Canada): Broke collarbone just before 2010 Olympics. Has a couple of X Games medals.

Alex Fiva (Switzerland): World Cup 2013 champion is consistently in top places on Cup circuit but hasn’t broken through in big events.

Filip Flisar (Slovenia): A few World Cup wins and the season title in 2012. Has videos devoted to his mustache.

Armin Niederer (Switzerland): Several good results in World Cup.

Victor Oehling Norberg (Sweden): Breakthrough 2013 season included win in Sochi.

John Teller (USA): Wildly inconsistent, though that’s somewhat explained by the nature of the event.

Slopestyle

Nick Goepper (USA): Turns 20 after the Olympics. Already has an X Games gold and World Championship bronze.

Gus Kenworthy (USA): Rare two-event threat nearly made team in halfpipe as well.

Tom Wallisch (USA): Won 2012 X Games Aspen and 2013 world title, along with several Dew Tour stops. Then he didn’t make the Olympic team. Tough competition.

James Woods (Britain): Longest hair in Britain?

Halfpipe

Simon Dumont (USA): Ever seen the video of him falling 80 feet? He recovered and started his own competition, the Dumont Cup, to let newcomers compete alongside pros. And he has a nice safe side career racing cars. Several X Games medals.

Mike Riddle (Canada): 2011 world champion and 2013 World Cup champion.

David Wise (USA): 2013 X Games Aspen and world champion. Also 2012 X Games Aspen.

Torin Yater-Wallace (USA): Won a 2011 X Games medal at age 15. Now has a couple of X Games Tignes gold medalst, plus second place in the 2013 World Championship and World Cup.

Women

Aerials

Emily Cook (USA): Started competing in 1998 and had best World Cup season in 2013. Competed in two Olympics and seven world championships — best result is fourth in 2009.

Lydia Lassila (Australia): Olympic champion and 2009 World Cup champion took time off to start a family, then came back with strong 2013 season.

Danielle Scott (Australia): Consistent top-five finisher in second World Cup season.

Xu Mengtao (China): Back-to-back World Cup champion. Two-time World Championship runner-up before winning it in 2013. Sixth in 2010 Olympics — has finished no lower than third in World Cup competition since then.

Zhang Xin (China): 11 World Cup podiums.

Moguls

Chloe Dufour-Lapointe (Canada): The Venus to Justine’s Serena — the older sister with two World Championship medals in dual moguls.

Justine Dufour-Lapointe (Canada): Two-time World Cup season runner-up before her 19th birthday.

Hannah Kearney (USA): Won four of the last five World Cup titles. On the podium for all moguls and dual moguls World Championship events in 2011 and 2013. Won 16 straight World Cup events in 2011 and 2012, then eight of the last 14.

Heather McPhie (USA): Top five in last four World Cup seasons — every position except first. Fourth place in last three World Championship events.

Skicross

Hedda Berntsen (Norway): Former Alpine skier has Olympic and X Games medals. Competed little in 2013.

Ophelie David (France): Four-time X Games winner, 2007 world champion and seven-time World Cup champion crashed in the 2010 Olympic quarterfinals. Back to try again at age 37.

Kelsey Serwa (Canada): 2011 world champion kept out of 2013 event due to injury. Fifth in 2010 Olympics.

Fanny Smith (Switzerland): World Cup champion and world champion at age 20. Seventh in 2010 Olympics at age 17.

Marielle Thompson (Canada): 2012 World Cup champion and 2013 World Championship runner-up. Then won the junior world championship.

Slopestyle

Tiril Sjaastad Christiansen (Norway): 18-year-old has two X Games medals and was 2013 World Cup runner-up.

Keri Herman (USA): Lots of X Games silver and the 2013 World Cup title.

Dara Howell (Canada): Not yet 20, three-time X Games medalist and World Championship silver medalist.

Kaya Turski (Canada): 2013 world champion and three-time X Games champion.

Halfpipe

Maddie Bowman (USA): Turns 20 in January. Moved up from 2012 X Games Aspen silver to gold in 2013.

Virginie Faivre (Switzerland): Three-time World Cup champion and two-time world champion. Rarely finishes off the podium.

Roz Groenewoud (Canada): 2011 world champion, 2012 X Games Aspen winner. Close friend of late halfpipe pioneer Sarah Burke.

Ayana Onozuka (Japan): Scant competition record but mostly top-fives.

Marie Martinod (France): Took seven-year break to start a family, then came back to chase the Olympics. 3-for-3 in halfpipe competition in 2004 World Cup season. Didn’t compete again on World Cup circuit until January 2013, winning in Copper Mountain.

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