olympic sports, winter sports

Sochi recap: Figure skating, women’s free skate

It’s not fair to say Olympic figure skating is still the same mess it was in the past. The new scoring system does add a bit of transparency. But judges are human, particularly in a sport in which the athletes are also artists trying to connect with a crowd. And that’s why Russia’s Adelina Sotnikova is a gold medalist ahead of defending champion Yuna Kim.

Date: 20-Feb

Sport: Figure skating

Event: Women’s free program

Medalists: Adelina Sotnikova (Russia), Yuna Kim (South Korea), Carolina Kostner (Italy)

SportsMyriad projections: Mao Asada (Japan), Yuna Kim (South Korea), Ashley Wagner (USA)

How U.S. fared: Polina Edmunds, who’s not yet old enough to drive, had a graceful skate with a few difficult elements. She hit the combinations but fell on a triple — Johnny Weir pointed out it was the same error she had in the national championships. Everything else was solid, and Edmunds had a personal best 122.21 and a total of 183.25, just behind Japan’s Akiko Suzuki in third place with the top six to come.

Gracie Gold skated very well. She just had one costly fall on a triple flip. She also followed Russia’s Sotnikova, and the lack of energy in the arena may have deflated some of her component scores. She beat the personal best she set in the team program with a score of 136.90 and a total of 205.53.

Ashley Wagner had dazzling spins, and she didn’t fall or land too awkwardly. She pumped her fists as she finished. But Johnny Weir and Tara Lipinski noticed a couple of small errors, including one underrotation. That was enough to limit her score to 127.99, just shy of her personal best.

The USA is officially in a medal drought in this event, but finishing fourth (Gold), seventh (Wagner) and ninth (Edmunds) isn’t too bad. Maybe the Olympics could add a team event with three women per team?

What happened: Japanese favorite Mao Asada rebounded from her dreadful short program by landing everything in her demanding free skate, including the fateful triple axel. She was marked down on two jumps but not much else, getting a career-high 142.71 points. Her total of 198.22 wouldn’t contend for a medal. Would it?

France’s Mae Berenice Meite, who skated to the same Prince tune as Jason Brown in the short program, did her free skate to the sounds of someone tuning his guitar. It segued into some slow blues, then Queen’s We Will Rock You, then ZZ Top’s La Grange. Sounds like an iPod for old guys like me, but the segues were awfully jarring. So was a fall on the triple loop. Everything else was solid.

The other highlights of the second-to-last group were Edmunds and Japan’s Akiko Suzuki, who was just clean enough to edge past Edmunds. Asada was well in front.

Russia’s Julia Lipnitskaia led off the final group. She was the darling of the country after the team event but fell badly in the short program. She did it again here. She eked ahead of Asada but knew the score wouldn’t stand.

Italy’s Carolina Kostner had an entertaining program to Ravel’s Bolero, with just one shaky landing. Everything else was terrific. She beat her personal best by more than 10 points, putting Olympic disappointments in the past.

Then came Russia’s Adelina Sotnikova, who flew through the heavens, solved Fermat’s last theorem, inspired soldiers to lay down their arms … or something like that. We really have no idea what the judges saw. She was good, surely. But she did miss a landing (which was indeed downgraded), and her program was simply not as good as Kostner’s. The judges said it was more than seven points better.

Gold and Wagner had the misfortune of following that. So did South Korea’s Yuna Kim, the defending champion. Kim was flawless. Beautiful. If only she were Russian.

“Any other night, it would’ve been hers,” said Johnny Weir. And it should’ve been.

The medalists deserved it. Just not in that order. Kim, Kostner, Sotnikova would’ve been just fine. Lipnitskaia probably deserved seventh rather than fifth ahead of Asada and Wagner.

Full results

mma

Sanchez-Kampmann: MMA judges, statistics and damn lies

One certainty about close decisions: They’ll be followed in the blogoTwittersphere by cries of incompetence and wails to reform the judging system. Sometimes they have a point (Pham-Garcia, Beebe-Easton, Dunham-Sherk, Fukuda-Ring). Sometimes they’re just overblown wails from folks who don’t want to admit someone else might have an argument.

The latter is the case in three recent UFC main events: Edgar-Maynard, Penn-Fitch and last night’s Sanchez-Kampmann fight. (The only other major fight this year with a contested decision was Griffin-Franklin, but in that case, the only people who think Franklin won work in his corner.)

One thing these fights have in common — they’re very good fights. Edgar-Maynard was fight of the night, with a thrilling comeback from a champion who was all but knocked out in the first round of five. Penn-Fitch was compelling, with Fitch needing and getting a 10-8 round to force the draw after Penn’s surprising takedown strategy gave him the edge through two. Sanchez-Kampmann was so good that Dana White has given the fighters nearly half the gate.

My colleague Sergio Non and I think Sanchez won, and we’re joined by Josh Gross, Dana White and 52% of those voting at Sergio’s blog. We’re not joined by Jordan Breen, who would like to tell the judges and all of us who agree with them that we don’t know what we’re watching.

A complicating factor here is statistical. Compustrike says Kampmann outstruck Sanchez 33-18 overall (19-15 in power strikes) in round 2, then 34-19 (14-17 deficit in power) in round 3. That would suggest Kampmann won round 2, while Sanchez could take round 3 based on power strikes and his takedown. (Round 1 isn’t in dispute: Kampmann dominated, though not quite enough for a 10-8 round.)

FightMetric’s numbers are a little different. They have Kampmann ahead in round 2 — 27-22 total, 26-22 “significant.” If you look at the graphic and break out the “power” numbers, Sanchez wins 20-17. But the “decision” tab awards the round, barely, to Kampmann.

Round 3 is virtually even in strikes — 19-19 total and 19-19 “significant,” though again, Sanchez has the edge in “power,” 17-7. And Sanchez’s takedown, and the round is his.

The numbers differ between the services, but that’s helpful. Strikes that are clear from one vantage point may be less clear from another, and it helps to get multiple angles.

But the stats are still limited. What they don’t show is that Kampmann spent far too much of rounds 2 and 3 backing away from Sanchez. He says he wasn’t hurt in round 2, but he certainly seemed to be. And in round 3, the takedown he finally surrendered after several failed attempts from Sanchez showed that one fighter was still fresh and one wasn’t.

Those are subjective observations. But if we take those out, then we’re left with amateur boxing. Tap tap tap — hey, I’m winning 3-0!

So here’s the question: Can you change the system to make it so that Penn-Fitch, Edgar-Maynard and Kampmann-Sanchez have clearer winners?

Let’s try: The Japanese style of scoring “the whole fight”? Not really. Edgar’s late surge still balances out Maynard’s early dominance. Penn won maybe nine minutes of his fight against Fitch, but Fitch won the last six more decisively. Reverse that for Kampmann-Sanchez.

A half-point scoring system that so intrigues Josh Gross? He says that would make last night’s bout a draw.

Going five rounds instead of three? It didn’t help with Edgar-Maynard — the challenger took a 10-8 round and a 10-9, and the other three were 10-9 for the champion. Fitch likely would’ve gone on to win, though it’s hard to tell if Penn’s approach would’ve changed. (Fitch would always be an overwhelming favorite against Penn in a five-rounder, anyway.) Sanchez had taken the momentum against Kampmann, but had he also given everything he had in those last two rounds?

Judge primarily by “damage” (though that gives ammunition to anti-MMA lawmakers)? OK then, Penn beats Fitch, having busted up his face in a round many people thought he lost. Sanchez was more visually “damaged” than Kampmann, but Kampmann certainly seemed to be in rough shape at times.

No solution really gives us a definitive winner in a close fight. But I’ll offer three anyway:

1. Four-round main events. Yes, four. Then let judges judge the whole fight as a tiebreaker if it ends up 38-38. This prevents the typical three-rounder in which one fighter convincingly wins one round while another fighter takes two close rounds, then wins 29-28.

2. Judo system. MMA, like judo, is supposed to be about fighting to a finish. Judo has specific criteria for finishing a fight — a fully controlled throw, a hold on the mat for 25 seconds or an opponent’s submission. That’s an ippon. Judo also has a waza-ari (half point) for a throw that isn’t quite an ippon or a hold of 20 seconds. Two waza-ari = one ippon. If the fight ends with one fighter having one waza-ari and the other having none, the waza-ari wins. Then there’s a yuko, which serves as a tiebreaker if each fighter has one or no waza-ari.  So in other words, you’re rewarded for coming close to a finish.

The judo system might work for some of these fights. Penn would get one or two yuko in the first two rounds, but Fitch would get a waza-ari for the third. Kampmann would get a waza-ari in the first and would win out over Sanchez’s yukos in the second and third.

And yet, we’d still find something to argue about. So that brings us to the entirely tongue-in-cheek suggestion:

3. Penalty kicks. Hey, if you really don’t want a draw …

The more important part is the long term. Dana White says Kampmann won’t be treated like a loser, which hopefully means he won’t get the typical “three straight losses and you’re out” treatment that most UFC fighters get. (Kampmann lost a split decision last time out against Jake Shields, another close one that could’ve gone his way.) Getting dominated in a fight should push a fighter farther down a ladder than a fight decided by a virtual coin flip.

And that is, once again, a subjective judgment. Can’t avoid it.